Garko trade one of Giants all time worst?
Now that Ryan Garko has been released after two less than stellar months, the Giants have one more disastrous deal to add to their less than inspiring transactional history. Was this one of the worst trades in Giants history? No, not really. Unless Scott Barnes channels his inner Glavine and goes all perpetual all-star on us, then its merely another chapter in the ongoing Brian Sabean sucks saga. The sad part is that when this trade went down, it didn't seem like too bad a deal at the time. Here was a young, inexpensive player who'd once hit 20 homers and drove in over 90 runs in the majors. He was a much needed patient hitter on a team that had perfected the art of flailing away at 0-2 sliders a foot outside, and was supposedly able to hit those pesky left handers that were so good at perplexing this team. Even when he got off to a slow start in a Giants uniform, he was at least grinding out decent at bats, and there was the feeling that eventually some of those line drives might find their way into the gaps. At least until his Bochness decided for whatever reason to give him the Frandsen treatment and plant his butt firmly on the bench for the remainder of the year, guaranteeing that what looked to be a decent trade at the time will now hopefully end up being nothing more than a sorry footnote to the glorious Lincecum years. At least there's comfort in knowing that as far as bad trades go, this one doesn't even rank in the top ten of worst deals in SF Giants history, for whatever that's worth. Lets not forget, this is a team that's made some pretty awful trades in its fifty year history. They once traded an MVP for a losing pitcher, a Cy-Young winner for a washed up pitcher, a 50 homer guy for nothing, and an all-star closer for an asshole. With that in mind, I present what are arguably the ten worst trades in Giants history:
Orlando Cepeda for Ray Sadecki: in all fairness, Sadecki was coming off a 20 win year and Cepeda played a position which was also filled by future hall of famer Willie McCovey. But Cepeda won the MVP award, the Cardinals won the World Series and Sadecki won 32 games in three seasons with the Giants.
Gaylord Perry for Sam McDowell: Perry was a two time 20 game winner and one of the top pitchers in the game, and went on to win two Cy-Youngs after the trade. McDowell won only 11 games as a Giant.
AJ Pierzynski for Joe Nathan: I think we all know how this one turned out. Nathan became an all-star closer who is still with the Twins, and Pierzynski's only lasting memory in his one year with the Giants was kicking their trainer in the balls. And as an added bonus, the Giants threw in two other decent pitchers as well. Brilliant!
George Foster for Frank Duffy: Foster went on to become an all-star with the Reds, and was the only player in his era to hit over 50 homers in a season. Duffy was a shortstop who lasted all of 28 at bats with the Giants before being included in the Perry trade, giving him the added distinction of being the only player involved in two crappy Giants trades.
Larry Herndon for Dan Schatzeder: Herndon was a useful outfielder who had 20 homer, 90 rbi that season and helped lead the Tigers to a championship a few years later. Schatzeder went 1-4 before being booed out of town and sold to the Expos after a few lousy months.
Jack Clark for Jose Uribe, David Green and Dave LaPointe: Jack Clark was a perpetual all-star and feared slugger who had several more productive seasons. LaPointe lost 17 games in his only season with the Giants, Green was the worst hitting first baseman in the league and the Giants lost 100 games for the only time in their history. Only the addition of the popular Uribe keeps this from being a worse trade than it actually was.
Shea Hillenbrand for Jeremy Accardo: Proving that things never change, the Giants of '06 desperately needed a first baseman, and the underwhelming Hillenbrand was the best they could do. That they gave up a young pitcher who saved 30 games the next year for half a season of mediocrity from a player who only lasted one more year in the majors says it all.
Matty Alou for Ozzie Virgil and Joe Gibbon: Alou went on to win the batting title the next year and had several more productive seasons, while Virgil lasted one year as a weak hitting backup catcher before calling it a career. At least Gibbon gave the Giants four solid years in relief, but not enough to make up for this lopsided deal.
Chris Speier for Tim Foli: Speier was arguably one of the most popular shortstops in Giants history and Foli lasted one mediocre year battling to keep his average above the Mendoza line before being released to make way for one of the least popular shortstops in Giants history: Johnny LeMaster.
Bob Knepper for Enos Cabell: Knepper spent the next decade as a vital member of the Astros rotation and made the all-star game in two of those seasons. Cabell lasted one year with the Giants, batting .255 with only two homers as a weak hitting first baseman.
So, as we can see, the Garko trade isn't one of the worst in Giants history, but then, only time will tell. Other notable bad Giants trades include Bobby Bonds for Bobby Murcer, who had two decent years but bitched about being here the entire time; Billy O'Dell for Ed Bailey, who had all of three at bats for the Giants before being traded again; Dan Gladden for Bryan Hickerson (at least he eventually made it to the majors); and Pete Falcone for Ken Reitz, who was then traded after one average season for Lynn McGlothlen who won all of two games as a Giant. And lets not forget some of the other recent gems of the Brian Sabean era, such as Estes for Shinjo, Aardsma for Hawkins and Russ Ortiz in his prime for Merkin Valdez and his ongoing attempts to avoid clogging up the disabled list. So congratulations Sabean: you've added another notch in the Giants never ending hall of shame. So now, who's looking forward to that upcoming Dan Uggla deal?!?
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
176 comments
|
3 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Not even close.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Dec 13, 2009 10:56 AM PST reply actions
I feel better now
/slashes wrists
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
"I sometimes still can get insider info and I am not a dumb or average fan.
Molina is needed."
by natteringnabob on Dec 13, 2009 11:02 AM PST reply actions
I don’t think it’s one of the worst in terms of players, but I think in terms of showing the fanbase exactly how little thought goes into the running of our team, it’s one of the most demoralizing.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
by jponry on Dec 13, 2009 11:12 AM PST reply actions 11 recs
This needs more green.
Who’s brain did you bring me?
Brain SabeanOranother.
by daveinexile on Dec 13, 2009 11:27 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I still think it was a good trade at the time it was made, it only became a bad trade when they gave up on him based on small sample size. To me the saddest thing is that Sabean made a decent trade here and isn’t even capable of recognizing it.
No Edgar, it's not your fault, it's the fault of the idiot that plays you
If they (Bochey & Sabean) had the courage of their convictions when they made the trade I agree with that it was gamble worth taking.
The problem is they obviously were not that sold on the guy in the first place or just can’t flat out judge other team’s talent. Considering that the last 4 position players traded for with the idea they would of considerable playing time ( AJ, Hillenbrand, Klesko & Fred Sanchez) that is a horrendous track record.
Who’s brain did you bring me?
Brain SabeanOranother.
by daveinexile on Dec 13, 2009 11:37 AM PST up reply actions
Klesko was a FA who the Giants’ paid nothing for, and he had a good first half before flat-lining in the second half, and the jury is still out on Freddie Sanchez. The AJ and Shea trades were awful, but please don’t lump in the others.
My bad. Ment Garko instead of Klesko.
Who’s brain did you bring me?
Brain SabeanOranother.
by daveinexile on Dec 13, 2009 11:41 AM PST up reply actions
The Jury is in on Sanchez.
He’s on a new contract now, one he could have signed as a FA coming here. The deal’s over.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Randy Winn Was Traded For After Both The AJ And Hillenbrand Trades
And it produced real value for the Giants.
by giantsrainman on Dec 13, 2009 3:02 PM PST up reply actions
Say what?
Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???
It Was A Good Trade
Left out of the list of “most recnt trades” while this list included 2 trade that were done before it was.
by giantsrainman on Dec 13, 2009 9:51 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, you just can’t get that gritty gammer veteranness anywhere.
Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???
Randy Winn Was A Very Good Player For The Giants
In his 4.3+ years with the Giants he produced almost 13 WAR at a dollar cost of just under $30M for an average cost of just $2.3M per WAR. We got this value for Torrealba (as Foppert never pitched again at the MLB level) who produced just 3 WAR at a dollar cost of $9M for a higher average cost of $3M per WAR.
This clearly was a very good trade for the Giants.
by giantsrainman on Dec 13, 2009 10:40 PM PST up reply actions
I looked forward to every shitty AB he had last year.
Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???
Not as much as Boch!
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Dec 14, 2009 9:18 AM PST up reply actions
I agree with that but thatt is not his fault. Big Head get my ire for that.
Who’s brain did you bring me?
Brain SabeanOranother.
by daveinexile on Dec 14, 2009 10:19 AM PST up reply actions
Well, those numbers assume UZR accurately measures Winn’s defensive value….
by Missing Barry on Dec 14, 2009 9:26 AM PST up reply actions
First link is broken. And yes, I’m aware of the Fangraphs stuff, but as I said, that assumes his UZR numbers accurately measure his value. I’m not necessarily saying they do not, Randy is a good fielder and very good for a corner OF of course (corner OF’s are very bad fielders overall), but there’s a large discrepancy between what his RF UZR tells us compared to CF and LF. That is a red flag – something worth knowing and looking into. I do believe there’s a chance RF at AT&T has some screwy effects on UZR. I’m interested to see what kind of data we get going forward with our new RF’s (whoever they may be)…
by Missing Barry on Dec 14, 2009 9:52 PM PST up reply actions
I dunno about you, but I’m not really sure what to make of those defensive numbers…
by Missing Barry on Dec 15, 2009 7:16 AM PST up reply actions
I don’t really think that’s true. UZR didn’t especially love Moises Alou while he was here.
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
Not too sure about that. The sample sizes are far too small to say anything definitive, but in 2006 Alou had a -2.7 UZR in 81 games in RF. In 2007 for the Mets he was -6.3 in 84 games in LF. Even ignoring the fact that the average left fielder is worse than the average right fielder, that’s a six-run difference over a full season. So it could be.
But like I said the sample sizes are super small (in UZR terms), so you could cherry pick the data a different way and reach a different conclusion. Still, so far we can’t reject the notion that AT&T RF is UZR-boosting.
And that’s basically all I was saying. I didn’t say anything is wrong, just raising the possibility. I don’t think we have nearly enough evidence at this point to even being to think the answer is one way or another, so I’m just going to assume it’s right for now, knowing that assumption may not be correct.
by Missing Barry on Dec 15, 2009 11:50 AM PST up reply actions
I don’t know why this thread is still going when this comment is so obviously the correct way to think about this.
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
Whilst it’s certainly possible and i suspect it might be true to a degree, i don’t think it’s had a huge effect on his overall value. According to fangraphs he’s been worth 4.4 WAR defensively over the last 4 years and i’m sure he’s a good defensive RF. So i’d imagine even if it’s true and it’s overestimated his defense i doubt he’s gained more than a couple of wins overall from it.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
Well you say a couple of wins like that isn’t a big deal…
Just looking at his CF/LF numbers they suggest he’s probably around ~+5 or so a season at corner OF (could be a little higher). That would tack off a couple of wins right there (44- ~25 or so = 20). However, other than that point, I don’t see any other evidence that really supports the fact that something has inflated Winn’s value defensively, so in light of that, I’d go with the numbers as we see them. I just want to raise the possibility they’re wrong because there’s at least something to suggest they might be.
Either way, I’m not disagreeing with the original point. Winn was a good trade in either case. He’s been a good player for us.
by Missing Barry on Dec 15, 2009 3:14 PM PST up reply actions
You Can't Just Toss The Data That Doesn't Agree With Your Biases
It all matters and weither you use Crone or Fangraphs it says Randy Winn produced 13-14 WAR for the Giants in his 4.3+ years. Randy’s salary for these years was a little under $30M so the Giants got these 13-14 WAR at a cost of under $2.3M per WAR. This was great value for the Giants and thus trading for him and re-signing proved to be a damm good moves.
by giantsrainman on Dec 15, 2009 4:20 PM PST up reply actions
You’re correct that I can’t toss data that doesn’t agree with my biases. No argument here. That’s why, as I’ve said multiple times, I’m inclined to go with the numbers we’re presented without further evidence. However, the point is that there are other numbers that disagree with the numbers we’re presented. His AT&T RF numbers are vastly higher than all the rest of his numbers suggest they should be. What does that mean? I don’t know – there’s not enough evidence to really come to a conclusion, so again, I’m not arguing the numbers are wrong. Just pointing out there’s a possibility they are.
If I were to look at this in the most unbiased way I can, I think I’d conclude that his numbers before were probably understating his value, and his numbers after he moved to RF for the Giants are probably overstating his value. That’s generally how to do with two sets of data telling us different things – the truth is probably somewhere in the middle.
by Missing Barry on Dec 15, 2009 9:11 PM PST up reply actions
Well, obviously it would make him less valuable, but even if you took those off he’d still have been a good player (3 WAR per season) over the time he’s been with us. Of course you’re not disagreeing that fact, and the numbers you mentioned were the same ones i used to suggest he might be over-rated by a couple of wins.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
It Is Just As Likely To Be Underrated By A Couple Of Wins
by giantsrainman on Dec 16, 2009 1:02 AM PST up reply actions
That is flat out not true, for multiple reasons. First – when you’re looking at a stat that’s something like Winn – where he’s putting up one of the best UZR’s in the game, it is, in fact, more likely that there’s measurement error in his favor than against his favor. That’s the whole point in regression to the mean – it’s more likely that the data point is closer to the population mean than farther. Second, as I’ve pointed out, there is some evidence that possibly suggests he’s worse than his UZR numbers. That’s 1 reason he might be overvalued. That’s 1 MORE reason he might be overvalued than reasons there are he might be undervalued. Again, this shifts the probability towards him being overvalued.
So…that statement is factually incorrect.
by Missing Barry on Dec 16, 2009 8:14 AM PST up reply actions
Why do fight with GRM?
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 16, 2009 8:16 AM PST up reply actions
I dunno, it’s not like he isn’t knowledgeable and doesn’t have good points at times…it’s just frustrating because he quite clearly refuses to ever acknowledge when he’s wrong (like with the above statement)…it’s kind of taking the spot of being able to argue with Sabean. It also frustrates me that GRM often refuses to get into the thought process that goes into his one line statements…even though sometimes there is a good thought process back there….
by Missing Barry on Dec 16, 2009 8:19 AM PST up reply actions
Defense Wouldn't Be The Reason For Possible Underrating
Not taking into account baserunning would be the reason.
by giantsrainman on Dec 16, 2009 1:14 PM PST up reply actions
A little elaboration always helps clear things up. I think it’s pretty fair to say Winn is an above average baserunner.
by Missing Barry on Dec 16, 2009 1:59 PM PST up reply actions
nowadays
also unrated by a couple of Wynns!!!11
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
"I sometimes still can get insider info and I am not a dumb or average fan.
Molina is needed."
by natteringnabob on Dec 16, 2009 9:25 AM PST up reply actions
FORMER DADDY BIAS!
Giant Dirtbags: John Bowker, Steve Hammond. MIA List: Todd Jennings, Brian Anderson
Jeremy Affeldt induces DP's
by Giant among Angels on Dec 14, 2009 12:50 PM PST up reply actions
I hate to see fan posts like this, because it almost makes Brian Sabean look right when he uses terms like “lunatic fringe.” All Sabean had to do was tender Garko and nobody would be saying anything about the trade right now. I think Sabean should have tendered Garko and attempted to trade him, but non tendering him just makes this a dumb trade and not an all time worst trade until we see what Scott Barnes accomplishes in his major league career. (if he has one)
No Edgar, it's not your fault, it's the fault of the idiot that plays you
+1. Barnes will let you know how this pans out in terms of badness.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Dec 13, 2009 11:47 AM PST up reply actions
That was kind of my point...
that this was a dumb trade, but certainly not one of the Giants all time worst. Unfortunately, the Giants recent history is filled with way too many dumb trades, and unless I’m forgetting something, the last time they made a decent trade was five seasons ago when they picked up Randy Winn.
by crazedcrustacean on Dec 13, 2009 12:00 PM PST up reply actions
Yep… the jury is still out on this one.
by KrazyKrabMeat on Dec 14, 2009 5:51 PM PST up reply actions
Jeremy Accardo was traded for Vinnie Chulk
Shea was traded for cash and an alpaca
Tommy Joseph is the Dingerzball Wizard
by SoFa King Mike on Dec 13, 2009 11:32 AM PST reply actions
Should have held out for a llama.
Who’s brain did you bring me?
Brain SabeanOranother.
by daveinexile on Dec 13, 2009 11:38 AM PST up reply actions
and a new shiny fungo
Giant Dirtbags: John Bowker, Steve Hammond. MIA List: Todd Jennings, Brian Anderson
Jeremy Affeldt induces DP's
by Giant among Angels on Dec 13, 2009 11:39 AM PST up reply actions
I first read that as “a new funny shinjo.” Scary.
Officially disinterested in any high school outfielders from the state of Mississippi.
Proud adoptive parent of Sergio Romo.
If you put any team with the longevity of the Giants’ all time 10 worst trades, most of them would look quite similar.
Incorrect
Bill James did a published analysis a while back. What I recall is that he came to the conclusion something like that, post-1960, the Giants were far and away the worst team in terms of lopsided trades, like worse than the next two bad teams combined. He said something like that the late sixties early to mid seventies Giants would have been like the mid seventies Reds or late nineties Yankees, if they had not traded, or had just broke even on the trades they made.
Behold:
The Virtual 1966 San Francisco Giants: Part 1
The Virtual 1966 San Francisco Giants: Part 2
See also Value Production Standings, with a table for 1946-1980 at the bottom of the page. The Giants organizational win shares ranked them first (with a few seconds) in the NL or NL West from 1964 to 1979.
Proud father of Barry Bonds.
So, it's been part of the firmament for some time now...
The Giants had finished third in 1961, and their 85-69 record was the franchise’s best since their 1954 championship. Owner Horace Stoneham (who essentially acted as his own GM, though his nephew Chub Feeney held that title in the 1950s and 1960s) decided that the time was right to go for it and make a “Win Now!” move, surrendering young talent for veteran role players.
"I don’t know why people feel the need to come up with reasons 'why' for everything..." - Missing Barry
by victor frankenstein on Dec 14, 2009 12:23 AM PST up reply actions
Plus ça change...
Meet my new son: Sundrendy Windster, on the Curacao-SF express (via Arizona).
by EliminateMe on Dec 14, 2009 10:05 AM PST up reply actions
Estes was involved in two good trades for us
traded then shell-shocked Saoloman Torres for him. Got Shingo and Desi Relaford for him. Dealt Relaford for David Bell, an important part of pennant winner.
good point, I’d forgotten about Rutherford. Bell was so much fun to watch that season, especially with the glove.
Rutherford?
Are you talking about Lumpy Rutherford, Wally’s friend?
The guy freaking spelled it out for you. R-E-L-A-F-O-R-D. How do you then follow it up with a post and say Rutherford? Unless of course this is an old joke that Noob here is unfamiliar with.
"…this thing which tells time."
by Cody_ransom on Dec 14, 2009 10:37 AM PST up reply actions
I just want to point out that regardless of what Barnes does or doesn’t become, I don’t think that’s useful information for how good/bad this trade was. The process is what’s important – the results are heavily influenced by luck. I’d rather have a good process in place, because over time, more things will work out positively than negatively. Judging the trade based on the luck aspect is faulty.
The only caveat is whether someone thinks Sabean knew something about Barnes that made him less likely to pan out than other organizations thought. Then that would be smart thinking. However, he should still get fair market value for Barnes…
You allude to a lack of process. Or a faulty process.
I attribute the kinds of transactions the Giants engage in, the Garko acquisition and subsequent non-tender being the most recent, not to a lack of process, but rather a disconnect in the priorities. The Giants only keep guys who they think are uniquely qualified to be part of the “Giants Way”.
Zito-Rowand-Renteria-Sanchez
Lincecum is part of it for the time being only because he dominates, but he is exactly the kind of player Sabean loathes. Lincecum is a 21st century West Coast athlete. Sabean is a stuck-in-the-80s guy who hates long hair, dredlocks, ’tude, baggy units, cocked hats, and most of all; fans, critics and guys with opinions who speak up.
The ownership/management view Garko as a marginally productive player, who is going to cost them approximately 1percent of their revenue stream if he goes to arbitration. According to Sabean, they don’t consider Garko worth the one percent. “Grab some pine, Meat”.
No surprise to me. Or anybody else who sees the Giants for what they have become since the ouster of Magowan and deaths of Harlan and Sue Burns.
Zito will cost them 20 percent of their revenue stream. But he was acquired to be the “face of the franchise.” That was a marketing decision. They then went out and acquired Aaron Rowand to be the new Bobby Murcer (who replaced Bobby Bonds in 1973) to replace Barry Bonds, and threw $60 million dollars at a guy, who like Murcer, was a nice fair to middlin’ unremarkable outfielder. Again it wasn’t baseball performance, it was marketing. Rowand was going to be the guy they built the gritty, gravy, gamey, gumball, horsehit and gunsmoke warrior spirit Giants way marketing campaign around.
And like Zito, he has been pretty much a bust in terms of results. Edgar Renteria, Freddy Sanchez. They are just additional, yet overpaid expensive cogs in the marketing mantra of the “Giants Way”.
The Giants way is endemic to college coaches, of which Sabean was one. Grind it out. Batting Averages. 55 game seasons in which talent can be evaluated. Nothing will change.
Neukom loves this stuff. He is basically a fanboy who got put in charge of his pals’ checkbook.
“Have a good time collecting autographs Billy, but remember we can take your allowance away if you spend too much”
by E Ticket on Dec 13, 2009 12:21 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Good post.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Dec 13, 2009 12:24 PM PST up reply actions
Really made me think about that whole Linc for Rios thingy Sabe’s was into.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Dec 13, 2009 12:25 PM PST up reply actions
Maybe the most depressing thing about all this is if the Giants are “suddenly” not going to pay $2-3MM for a part time player that covers a team’s glaring need then why the heck should Cain or Tim stay on here? And if they are not staying on then the team needs to look into moving them in the next 24 months. That in turn means the same GM that “engineered” the AJ, Hillenbrand, Klesko and Fred Sanchez trades will be the guy picking the players either Tim and/or Matt returns.
Who’s brain did you bring me?
Brain SabeanOranother.
by daveinexile on Dec 13, 2009 12:32 PM PST up reply actions
Oh. There’s no doubt in my mind that Lincecum is gone. Its just a matter of time.
Sabean is like an old fat US Senator who has been in Congress longer than any of his contemporaries. He got lucky, and made his bones with the Matt Williams for Vizcaino and Kent trade.
He is in his mid-50s and like most vainglorious ego-maniacal, power-pimps who believe they are infallible, he is beginning to think about his own personal legacy. What better way to accomplish this than to repeat his two-for-one with an even more grandiose, controversial, I-am-the-smartest-GM-ever trade of Lincecum?
Lincecum for Cano, Damon and Swisher. I can envision the presser now and the breathless spinning of KNBR doods telling us all how gamer those three guys are!
by E Ticket on Dec 13, 2009 12:56 PM PST up reply actions
This might be a first. I am less optmistic on this then you. I Seriously doubt he would return any opne of Cano or Swishers Stature. Though I can see an age 37 Damon type, or two of them, comeing back.
Who’s brain did you bring me?
Brain SabeanOranother.
I think that was just an arbitrary list intended to imply that whomever comes back is going to be made up of old, gritty mcgamerson’s, and thus be an epic failure.
Could be mistaken though.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Dec 13, 2009 1:46 PM PST up reply actions
/ nods
I read each of those names has haveing the word type next to them.
Players like Cano are incredibly rare, and , Cano would be rather expensive in the next couple years.
Swisher is not got made skills the Rib Eye crowd recoginizes but he is, can be, an increadibly useful player to squad.
At mid 30’s has been is , well, nothing new to us Giants fans and seems to be the type of gamble this front office is far and away most comfortible takeing.
Who’s brain did you bring me?
Brain SabeanOranother.
I can read the quotes right now…
From the desk of Brian Sabean: December 15, 2010.
“We just couldn’t get the return on him we expected, his huge arbitration award really limited the number of teams that we could talk to. So right there you have a problem in that the pool of players we could choose from was already quite limited. And considering the economy and the what his future salary might be, his value really plummeted. We tried to get some impact players who could contribute right away but were still under team control. Unfortunately we didn’t see any that had enough at-bats at the big league level that we felt we could really count on for all star level production. Obviously we couldn’t take prospects back either. When you remove that kind of talent from your big league club, you can’t just leave that void empty.”
“I am not an Idiot!”
“Jobba Chamberlain looks to be a dominant middle reliever for several years, and Brett Gardner will be the spark at the top of the lineup that we’ve been looking for.”
“We have admired these two players from afar for some time. In the past we kicked the tires on them, but the asking price was always too high. Now that they are nearer to free agency we were able to attain them.”
“we look forward to a productive season anchored by a lineup that will feature dynamic talents and character people like Aaron Rowand, Freddy Sanchez, Jermaine Dye, and now Brett Gardner.”
"…this thing which tells time."
by Cody_ransom on Dec 14, 2009 10:55 AM PST up reply actions
"Jobba Chamberlain looks to be a dominant middle reliever for several years, and Brett Gardner will be the spark at the top of the lineup that we’ve been looking for."
"We have admired these two players from afar for some time. In the past we kicked the tires on them, but the asking price was always too high. Now that they are nearer to free agency we were able to attain them."
Oh lord it is Bobby Bonds for Maurcer all over again.
/ bashes head into desk
Who’s brain did you bring me?
Brain SabeanOranother.
by daveinexile on Dec 14, 2009 11:04 AM PST up reply actions
Zito will cost them2010 percent of their revenue stream
by E Ticket on Dec 13, 2009 1:29 PM PST up reply actions
Did you say,
baggy units, cocked hats,
"…this thing which tells time."
by Cody_ransom on Dec 14, 2009 10:39 AM PST up reply actions
Where in the heck did you pull this out of? Sabean hates Lincecum and all players with “tude”, long hair, etc. ???? Nonsense. Where is the evidence, E? There is plenty of legitimate things to complain about as a Giants fan, but this is not part of it.
If you want to view Garko’s non-tender then it should be put into context. The context is either one of two things, as I see it. First, the Giants face one of the worst financial situations in arbitration that any team has ever faced. It’s great that Lincecum, Wilson, and Sanchez are all still Giants (all drafted and developed by those stupid and incompetent people in Giants management), but the unknowns for the impact on the Giants 2010 salary structure are huge. That means the Giants have to make all their personnel decisions based on worst case scenarios that involve a possible 20 million award to Lincecum and multi-million dollar hikes in Wilson and Sanchez’s cases. Second, the Giants have to upgrade their offense with what they think they can afford is going to be left over. How big or little that sum is is certainly up for debate, but the conditions going forward are less than ideal. Certainly one can and should throw the money committed to Zito, Rowand, and Renteria into this mix.
However, with that as a background one can read the Giants actions, as I said in one of two ways. Either the Giants under Neukom’s leadership have decided to keep a tight rein on the salary for next year and are only going after what bargains they can find in 2010 free agent class (exhibit A and B the decisions to non-tender Garko and to lose the draft picks for Molina instead of offer him arbitration) and in possible trades, or, if you believe Peter Gammons’s rumor, the Giants are willing to spend major bucks to upgrade the offense (see Jason Bay) but are going to conserve their monies on less important players. Garko certainly qualifies as one of these. I don’t think one can pass judgement on which approach is true unless we know the validity of a possible five year offer to Bay.
As to the ranking of the Garko/Barnes trade, it doesn’t come close to being in the category of some of the atrocious ones made, most under former management, by the Giants. And, yes, some of them where made with business rather than baseball reasons at their core. The Murcer/Bonds fiasco was one of the worst. If you really want to rank these trades, however, it is only fair to also view the positive trades and acquisitions of each of the management teams along with the mistakes and disasters. Sabean gave us the one truly horrible trade in Joe Nathan, et al. for A.J. and he gave us some horrible FA signings as well (Benitez, Alfonzo), but he also gave us Kent, Nen, Burks, Schmidt, and Alou, among others. A balance is needed here. And with balance goes the understanding that there is plenty to be said in a positive vein about the Giants trade/signing record under Sabean as well as the bad.
Rather than me try and convince you of the Giants ineptitude, I’m just going let Mr. Bochy speak for the organization in this recent interview with Baseball Prospectus.
DL: The perception of your organization is that it isn’t very statistically savvy. Is that accurate?
BB: I would probably argue that a little bit, because of all the information we get. We have a tremendous IT department that gives me all the information I need, all the stats I know, but with that being said, I don’t rely strictly on statistics or managing by the book. I still believe you use your instincts, go by your gut, and do what you think is the best thing to win that ballgame.
by E Ticket on Dec 16, 2009 6:56 AM PST up reply actions
That interview is really depressing me. Everything he says in there is telling us him and Sabean have all the evaluation tools they could possibly need at their disposal, that Sabean and Bochy do discuss the lineup all the time….and yet, we’re still left with awful decisions that leave us scratching our heads. There’s really no other conclusion you can reach besides Bochy and Sabean are completely incompetent, and truly do not understand important things like statistical principles. Of course I strongly believed this before, but this confirms it without a doubt….
by Missing Barry on Dec 16, 2009 8:17 AM PST up reply actions
You’re right. You haven’t convinced me or the Giants “ineptitude.” What you’ve done is side-stepped the question. So, let me state it once again, where do you get this nonsense that:
The Giants only keep guys who they think are uniquely qualified to be part of the "Giants Way". Zito-Rowand-Renteria-Sanchez
Lincecum is part of it for the time being only because he dominates, but he is exactly the kind of player Sabean loathes. Lincecum is a 21st century West Coast athlete. Sabean is a stuck-in-the-80s guy who hates long hair, dredlocks, ’tude, baggy units, cocked hats, and most of all; fans, critics and guys with opinions who speak up.
This is a rant backed by nothing and now you want to change the discussion to a question of the Giants use of stats. OK. Playing to your audience to avoid the question, but OK. The Giants use statistical analysis in their evaluation of players, AND they use scout’s evaluations, AND they use the instincts of a very successful manager who knows the day to day situations with each of his players. The simple fact is that this is no different from any other team in baseball. Every team uses ALL of these tools. Disagree with the individual decision the Giants make and I may or may not agree with you, but this is nonsense driven by anger.
Thanks Sayhey
for arguing this with this rant. The conclusions drawn are clearly made from anger, and the pop psychology used here is poor at best. I just didn’t have the energy to defend something so silly, but I’m very glad you did.
Not Relative
He is saying you just pulled your claims about the Giants not likely Lincecum’s “tude” out of your ass which in fact is exactly what you did.
by giantsrainman on Dec 16, 2009 1:16 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, exactly
This is the kind of thinking that made me so happy for the Ellison-for-Blackley trade. The Giants gave up a nothing outfielder for a former top prospect. Sure, Blackley didn’t end up being especially good or anything, but the thought behind it was sound. In 10 years, no one will remember Jason Ellison or Travis Blackley, but the thought process was a good one and it was a good trade.
I hoped that would end up being a trend. It didn’t.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
The first Chester Arthur fanboy ever.
also a good idea
to trade a surplus player for something that you are missing, as opposed to shuttling an OF reserve for another OF reserve.
If Fred could be turned into a SS, say, that would be good for the team (assuming he’ll never get to play anyway).
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
"I sometimes still can get insider info and I am not a dumb or average fan.
Molina is needed."
by natteringnabob on Dec 13, 2009 11:09 PM PST up reply actions
But how often is it possible to find someone to give up anything at all for a “nothing outfielder”?
"We're in this thing!" My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman, "Sweet Jesus" Guzman and Jesus H. Guzman.
I was talking about having a good thought process
I wasn’t remotely saying that they should be able to make one of these trades every year. I was saying it was an example of trying to get value from something that wasn’t worth a lot to the Giants.
For example, the Indians made a trade during the last season where they got a good pitching prospect for an average first baseman who then got non-tendered and could re-sign with the Indians at the same salary he would have gotten if he hadn’t been traded. This would be an example of getting value from nothing. Whatever team was on the other end of that deal was acting extremely stupid.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
The first Chester Arthur fanboy ever.
I think you’re shining a bright light on The Indians if you give them credit for trading a guy who ended up getting non-tendered and is now available to re-sign. I’d have a really tough time believing that “And when the Giants non-tender Garko, we could get him right back!” figured into their thought process.
"We're in this thing!" My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman, "Sweet Jesus" Guzman and Jesus H. Guzman.
the only point I disagree with is the “fair market value”. None of us have any idea what other teams think of “our” prospects, or how the Giants’ value them internally. The Giants’ do have a very good track record of evaluating internal pitching prospects, and this may have totally made sense from their point of view. IF Barnes becomes Spahn, Carleton, Johnson, or Glavine then clearly this was absurd beyond belief. If he becomes Jason Grilli, Boof Bonser, or never pitches more than a couple of insignificant innings in the MLB than it’s not so bad. We, as fans, are not privy to the process that goes into these trades as far as internal evaluations and that is an important point to remember. Because of this, I don’t think you can judge whether or not the trade is lucky.
Of course, and I didn’t mean to imply we knew that. We can only speculate as to what teams were interested in Barnes or Alderson (or both) and how much they felt they were worth. I guess the point is that’s what Sabean should be doing. I don’t know for sure that he is or is not, but if I had to pick….I would have to go with the “is not” category. I think the process has major flaws, though in a case like this, I can’t prove it since as you pointed out, that information is not available to me.
by Missing Barry on Dec 13, 2009 7:26 PM PST up reply actions
IF Barnes becomes Spahn, Carleton, Johnson, or Glavine
If Barnes becomes any of the first three, we can look forward to him on our roster in 2030, with 300 wins for other teams.
Proud father of Barry Bonds.
Just part of the great gray mass of failed playoff run trades. Nothing all that special.
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
I haven’t seen anyone saying that this is one of the worst trades the Giants have ever made. It still ended up being dumb though.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
More disappointing then dumb.
Disappointing that Garko didn’t really continue to hit when he came over here. And even more disappointing that the Giants used his slump against him in deciding to not even bring him back when they still had 3 more years of control left of a hitter who arguably could have been their best one behind Pablo.
idiotic, but not really that bad
bochy just had to play him more consistently, and sabean should have given him a contract, and we wouln’t be talking about this right now
…
…
…
damn, those are some horrible trades
The sad part is that when this trade went down, it didn’t seem like too bad a deal at the time.
marcello disagrees very very strongly.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
The first Chester Arthur fanboy ever.
Yes, yes it was a horrible trade at the time
No one else was talking about Garko and we gave up a top 10 prospect for him. We could’ve probably gotten Pavano as a throw in and that could’ve prevented the Martinez-Sadowski experiment. Brian Sabean is a jackass.
The Giants have certainly not been lucky enough to have the loss of a C grade prospect be one of their all time worst trades.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Dec 13, 2009 6:58 PM PST reply actions
Personally I think the jury’s still out on Sanchez, too.
But yes, the Garko trade was shitcrap terrible. It was obviously a desperate grasp for the playoffs by the front office. Unfortunately he wasn’t used correctly, and had a bad 100 ABs.
And we should’ve given him a contract. He’d probably be one of the better hitters on the team, to be honest (meaning he’s a little above average).
Nobody likes money
Oh We're Following Bork
11:29pm: Baggarly writes that Garko did not see eye-to-eye with manager Bruce Bochy and likely wouldn’t have seen much playing time in 2010.
Nobody likes money
This clearly means Garko should be the next GM
Anybody who disagrees with Bochy is OK with me.
Officially disinterested in any high school outfielders from the state of Mississippi.
Proud adoptive parent of Sergio Romo.
Actually, it said “didn’t see eye-to-eye.” Not “disagreed with.”
I assume this means that Bochy avoided eye contact at all costs, even going so far as to close his eyes as tightly as possible AND covering them with his hands whenever Garko was around until Wotus finally gave him the all-clear.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 14, 2009 8:46 AM PST up reply actions
How far apart do your sockets need to be
to see eye to eye with Bochy? Walrus far? Bison far?
Proud father of Barry Bonds.
Why is Bochy still around?
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
Why is Bochy?
Meet my new son: Sundrendy Windster, on the Curacao-SF express (via Arizona).
by EliminateMe on Dec 14, 2009 10:11 AM PST up reply actions
Bochy to Sabean
Lloyd to Ari
Mark to Wilhimena
by E Ticket on Dec 14, 2009 10:57 AM PST up reply actions
I have it the other way around. I thought the Garko trade was meh, and the Sanchez trade was absolutely shitcrap terrible.
Sanchez is market value at best on his contracts, which makes him almost no trade value whatsoever.
Lethargy
It has me
This
Barnes was a middling prospect traded for a middling player. It was an overpay, but let’s face it, the odds of Barnes ever being a major league starter are not good. Garko has been a moderately productive major leaguer, and he was (well, could have been) under team control for a couple more years. It wasn’t a great trade, more meh, and the quality of the players involved isn’t high enough to make it that significant in the larger scheme of things.
By contrast, Alderson was one of the organization’s very best prospects, and they traded him for a two-month rental of an injured (they knew) second baseman who was being paid market value and who was a free agent after the season, in a free agent market loaded with second base options. That’s a terrible trade. Really terrible.
It seems to me calling Alderson one of the very best and Barnes a middling prospect is consistent. Barnes was a Top 10 organizational prospect by BA before the season, in a strong farm system (though it was brought up by the Big 4, of course). He was having himself a pretty decent season at that point (albeit at a low level) – over 9 K/9, good control….
Also, while it is important to note the probability of him succeeding, you can’t note that without also noting what the expected result is if he does succeed – which is a lot of excess value….
by Missing Barry on Dec 14, 2009 9:56 PM PST up reply actions
I assume that’s supposed to be “inconsistent” in the first sentence, and that’s a fair point. But there really is a big drop between the 3rd best prospect in the org and the 10th. If I look at the community prospect list for this year, #3 is Thomas Neal and #10 is Nick Noonan. Noonan may yet turn into a good player, but obviously he’s not seen as having anywhere near the likelihood of having a big impact in the majors as Neal.
That’s not to say the Garko trade was good. It was not. But the likelihood that it’s something the Giants regret for a long time is far lower than trading Alderson. Put another way, if Barnes turns out to be a star, they could realistically offer the “Hoocoodanode?” defense, but that is certainly not true in Alderson’s case.
Yeah inconsistent. My bad. I do agree with your overall point – I just didn’t think the difference between the, at the time of their respective trades, was as big as you were making it sound.
by Missing Barry on Dec 15, 2009 7:17 AM PST up reply actions
I think part of the problem is that Alderson was viewed highly (much higher than Barnes) coming into the year but has ended up looking like he was very over-rated. At the time of the trade Alderson was still the higher ranked prospect I’m sure but i don’t think he was rated as highly as you’re implying. Also it’s worth noting that Sanchez is a much better player than Garko and was (potentially) a much bigger upgrade to the team.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
Also it’s worth noting that Sanchez is a much better player than Garko and was (potentially) a much bigger upgrade to the team.
The problem with that is that while Sanchez is (or at least was) a much better player than Garko, he was already making market value and was going to be a FA after the season. So irrespective of how good of a player he is or was, it’s not clear that he should have had much trade value.
As for Alderson, it does seem that some of the shine went off of him over the course of last season, but that just makes the trade look worse, as Sabean clearly sold low on him.
I’m not sure being paid market value has much relevence for an in-season trade as there is no market to acquire anyone freely. Also, i’m not sure that only having to pay him a guarenteed $2M for the potential 1 win upgrade is really market value.
I’m not sure it means that, sure in hindsight he should have tried to trade him in the offseason before but he likely sold high on him as i’d be suprised if Alderson has as much trade value in future as he did then.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
I’m not sure being paid market value has much relevence for an in-season trade as there is no market to acquire anyone freely.
Sure, it’ll inflate cost a bit. But not even close to that much.
he likely sold high on him
In that Alderson’s status may decline in the future, this may be true. But the fact still remains that they got next to nothing for him, so this is not really the most accurate characterization.
Lethargy
It has me
I was refering to the market value of his salary rather than of the trade. The salary you end up paying for a mid-season acquisition isn’t relevent compared to market value (unlike in the offseason) whereas the trade value shouldn’t be effected that much.
Well they didn’t get next to nothing they got a good player for half a year with the good posibility of having him longer. That’s not worthless to a team in a playoff race. And the notion of selling high is that you’re selling him at a point where his value is higher than it will be in future so that’s a pretty fair description.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
Well they didn’t get next to nothing they got a good player for half a year with the good posibility of having him longer.
But the “good posibility of having him longer” comes under a contract that is as large as if not larger than one that would have been given Sanchez in free agency. Thus, those years have no trade value whatsoever. The possession of a player or players worth that amount is available in free agency the next year, so not only is there no trade value gained, but no actual value either.
So the net acquisition was the one and a half months (it wasn’t even close to half a year) of a ‘good player’, with the knowledge that that player was injured and going to undergo surgery the next offseason. That acquisition has next to no value.
You mentioned that the supply is restricted in a mid-season situation. This is true. But it doesn’t bring the value up from next to nothing to a top-5 prospect in a top-10 farm system.
The point about selling high is that he had high value at the time, but the price extracted was by no means near his value. It’s akin to a ripe fruit that is worth $3, but due to the fact that it will go rotten will be worth $1 in 3 days. If you sell the fruit when it is ripe, you can be said to be selling high, but in this case you are selling the fruit worth $3 for 50 cents. The phraseology is accurate, but it is deceptive.
Lethargy
It has me
Exclusive Negoiating Rights Has Value
especially with the leverage of a team option.
by giantsrainman on Dec 16, 2009 7:26 PM PST up reply actions
Actually, Sanchez had the leverage during negotiating rights, due to the fact that he knew the cost the Giants had sunk to acquire him and knew that there was no chance of the Giants FO choosing not to retain him. He could eliminate the decline of the option as a risk during the negotiations.
From that point on, he is free to demand a new contract of value that is at least as high as that of the $8 mil, 1 year option. This option is greater in monetary value than that which he could be reasonably expected to produce on the field, given the injury realities at the time.
Two years at $12 million is just as expensive a contract in terms of value as one year at $8 million, and likely more expensive because Freddy Sanchez had leverage, not the Giants.
Lethargy
It has me
Then He And His Agent Negoiated Poorly
As all they added was a year at $4M which is below his market value.
by giantsrainman on Dec 16, 2009 8:47 PM PST up reply actions
I don’t think you understand how contract values work.
A contract of 1 year, $5 million has value x.
A contract of 2 years, $10 million has a value greater than x, because of the risks involved with the extra year and the security that the player gains.
For the contract with two years to have value x, the total contract would have to be something like $8 million.
Now, take the 1 year, $8 million option (we’ll say it has value y). An additional year gains Freddy Sanchez benefits in the form of increased security and incurs an additional cost on the Giants due to increased risk. For a 2 year contract to have the the value of y, it would have fewer millions of dollars per year. 2 years at $12 million is equivalent.
Lethargy
It has me
Yes, Risk Matters
But, it is not a 50% discount for a second year.
by giantsrainman on Dec 16, 2009 10:00 PM PST up reply actions
Proof?
Previous contracts from similar players in the same market, one who got a 1-year deal and another who got a 2-year deal would do.
Otherwise that’s just a glib assertion with no backing in reality.
All the hard evidence is against you:
*Sanchez knowing the Giants won’t decline option
*Sanchez being able to fall back on the $8 mil contract, meaning he does not accept a restructured contract unless it has the same value or more
Lethargy
It has me
The Phillies Gave Palanco 3 Years And $18M
Where is the discount you seem to expect here?
by giantsrainman on Dec 16, 2009 10:57 PM PST up reply actions
Polanco WAR (07-09):
5.2, 3.0, 3.1
Sanchez WAR (07-09):
3.7, 0.3, 2.3
Proof?
Previous contracts from similar players in the same market…would do.
Lethargy
It has me
Which Is Why Sanchez's Contract Is A Year Shorter
by giantsrainman on Dec 17, 2009 12:09 AM PST up reply actions
Freddy Sanchez: $10.4 mil fangraphs
Placido Polanco: $14.1 mil fangraphs
$8 mil X 14.1/10.4= $10.846 mil
Year one: $10.8
Year two: $5.4 (50%)
Year three: $2.7 (50%)
Sum: $10.8+$5.4+$2.7= $18.9 mil
There’s your 50% discount.
The first example you provide supports my thesis.
Lethargy
It has me
What The Hell Is This In Reference To?
$8 mil X 14.1/10.4= $10.846 mil
I have no idea what your point is.
by giantsrainman on Dec 17, 2009 2:40 PM PST up reply actions
8 mil is the value of his option. That’s the market value of a one-year contract for Freddy Sanchez.
You take that and multiply that by the factor of how much better Polanco was in 2009 to get the market value of a one-year Polanco contract. Polanco was ‘worth’ $14.1 mil last year, and Sanchez was worth ‘$10.4’ (fangraph dollars). So Polanco was 14.1/10.4 times better than Sanchez and deserves a one-year contract that is 14.1/10.4 times larger.
Thus a one-year deal for him would be $10.8 million.
Then, when I took 50% discounts for each year, the total contract size very closely approximated the actual amount that he signed for. Thus, the contract example you gave me follows the 50% discount hypothesis that you so blithely tossed aside with this comment:
Yes, Risk Matters
But, it is not a 50% discount for a second year.
Lethargy
It has me
Can you prove the 50% discount hypothesis wrong using other contracts?
If not, then Sanchez’s 2-year $12 million contract is equal in value to his 1-year $8 million option.
Which makes your previous comment
Then He And His Agent Negoiated Poorly
As all they added was a year at $4M which is below his market value.
incorrect because an additional year at half off is market value.
Then your statement
Exclusive Negoiating Rights Has Value
especially with the leverage of a team option.
does not apply to the Giants in the Sanchez case because the supposed leverage would have decreased Sanchez’s contract value, which it did not.
And therefore, my original supposition that the Giants acquired of value more than a quarter of Freddy Sanchez’s 2009 is correct.
That’s my point.
Lethargy
It has me
I Don't Believe Even You Believe This
All this really shows is that the Giants and Philles were able to pay these two players the same percentage below Fangraphs estimate of market cost based on Fangraphs use of prior years free agent signings.
by giantsrainman on Dec 18, 2009 5:29 PM PST up reply actions
Well go ahead. Prove me wrong.
Take two free agents of similar risk level (ages and injuries) and similar value (WAR) in the same market, one who received a one-year contract, and another who received a two-year contract.
If the overall value of the contract for the player who received a multi-year deal is a lot more than 150% the overall value of the contract for the player who received a one-year deal, then it’s disproven.
Right now the evidence is on my side.
You gave a bad example in Polanco, because Polanco is much better than Sanchez. I tried to accommodate your example to my theory using fangraphs dollars, but now you’re denying the legitimacy of that estimate.
So demonstrate an example that works as explained above, or you are wrong.
Lethargy
It has me
Examples Are Hardly Proof
Your theory that multiyear contracts effectly discount each year after the first year by 50% from the previous year can actually be proven false very easily. The math of this theory says that no matter how many years the multiyear contract is it will never pay out more in total then twice what that player could get if he signed a single year contract. That is indeed pretty damm silly and obviously false.
Now, if you didn’t mean to imply that this would hold true beyond just a few years you should have said so. Here proof requires far more work then I am willing to do and frankly the burdon of proof actually belongs to the one with the theory (you) not the one not buying said theory (me). So I am just going to provide an example where your theory clearly does not apply.
This offseason one team has signed two players of the same age with very similar Fangraphs WAR last year (2.5 vs 2.4). One of these players was signed for 2 years and $19M while the other only got 1 year and $6M. Here the 50% discount is being applied to the player getting the single year contract while no discount is applied to the player getting the multiyear contract. Can you name the team and players and more importantly how does this fit in with your theory?
by giantsrainman on Dec 18, 2009 11:25 PM PST up reply actions
The issues unsurfaced in the first two paragraphs are understood.
I would prefer a devaluation scale where $/year is related to years of contract in a negative linear fashion. Something like this:
($/year)= (1-year value) – k(number of years beyond 1)
Where k is a devaluation constant.
However, we started off with 50% discounts because I responded in terms of that phrase which was used by you initially. I allowed your phrase to be the centerpoint of my idea, and did not consider the overall math of the subject.
As long as we are set on discounts, however, let us say that it applies only in cases of 1, 2, and 3 year contracts, if that is fine with you.
Now, when I first skimmed your statement “hold true beyond just a few years” I interpreted a different meaning that is unrelated to the gist of your post but nevertheless is a good one to address. This is the fact that the devaluation will likely vary from market to market. Thus, when I said “take two players in the same market”, that was incorrect, because a different markets have different relevant realities and I should have limited it to the 2009 market (and perhaps the 2008 one as well).
Concerning the players: there is a very simple reason why they are not comparable.
…take two free agents of similar risk level (ages and injuries)…
Bobby Abreu, from what I have seen out of this site, has not been put on the DL ever! You know all about the injury history of the other guy.
Lastly, I am gathering the lists of free agent contracts (and re-signings, it’s a good thing you clued me into those with your Abreu example) as well as their WAR and working on their relationships.
I’m on High School winter break, so I have the time. It’ll probably end up on a fanpost, so you don’t have to worry about doing any of the work necessary to do any work to prove or disprove anything. I’ll get it done and then you can check out the fanpost later and see what you think.
Lethargy
It has me
No, they got two years at market value b/c his option would have been declined.
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 17, 2009 7:03 AM PST up reply actions
A few more:
Bill Madlock for Ed Whitson.
Gary Maddox for Willie Montanez. It only doesn’t seem as bad because we flipped Montanez for Darrell Evans a year later.
Felipe Alou and forgettables for forgettables.
Proud father of Barry Bonds.
There was a feature on MLB Network about the 1979 Pirates and players from that team credit the addition of Madlock for helping the Pirates to win the title.
"meh"
Spec Richardson, who’d traded Joe Morgan from the Astros to the Reds, was the GM that Bob Lurie hired to trade Madlock. I hung a “Blame it on Spec” sign on the bulletin board at work the day it happened.
Proud father of Barry Bonds.
At least Whitson was eventually traded for Duane Kuiper. Not a good trade in a baseball sense, but it did give us a quality announcer for the last few decades.
by crazedcrustacean on Dec 15, 2009 1:25 AM PST up reply actions
So, we traded BoBonds for Mercer for Madlock for Whitson for an announcer?
Proud father of Barry Bonds.
A pretty damned good one
What do you think we could get for Jon Miller if Bobby Bonds=Duane Kuiper? Maybe Hanley Ramirez? Could we swing Dave Fleming for Clay Buchholz? How about F.P. Santangelo for Carlos Silva….no, the Cubs wouldn’t do that.
Damon Bruce for a shopping cart full of BP balls
GUITARDUNNE BRAIN!
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
"I sometimes still can get insider info and I am not a dumb or average fan.
Molina is needed."
by natteringnabob on Dec 20, 2009 8:10 AM PST up reply actions
Good additions to a good list
I was going to mention the Maddox one. I also didn’t like losing Gary Matthews, but that was a free agency thing.
Such a well-compiled list. The Perry, Bonds, and Clark trades really demoralized young me, and set me up for a lifetime of low expectations for Giants GM’s. In that context, Al Rosen and Brian Sabean have contributed almost all the highlights.
"The questions are so stupid. I don't believe in rivalries. I don't believe in curses. Wake up the damn Bambino, maybe I'll drill him in the ass."
- Pedro Martinez, asked about the Curse of the Bambino
Dave Kingman to the Mets for $150,000.
The couldabeen ’76 Giants: Kingman 1B, Fuentes 2B, Speier SS, 3B Reitz (OK, not so great), Rader C, Foster/Matthews LF, Maddux CF, Bonds RF. SP Perry/Montefusco/Barr/Halicki.
Twenty-seven years of waiting has come to an end.
If you make the Maddux trade, you end up with Evans at 3rd and Matthews, Foster, and Bonds in the OF. Foster played over 300 games in his career in center and right, so you could flip a coin to decide where he and Bonds should have played. For that matter, Matthews also played over 400 games in right during his career. With that versatility and production in the OF, we’d have been better with Evans than Maddux. That roster would also have McCovey as the elder statesman and a young Jack Clark knocking on the door.
Proud father of Barry Bonds.
Yo Garko trade, I’m really sad for you, and I’m gonna let you finish, but the Pierzynski trade was the worst of all time! The worst of all time!
"I never watched baseball on TV. It's slow and boring. I'm not a fan. Never was." - Jeff Kent
Never let facts (or even reasonable opinions) get in the way of a perfectly good internet meme.
Meet my new son: Sundrendy Windster, on the Curacao-SF express (via Arizona).
by EliminateMe on Dec 14, 2009 10:18 AM PST up reply actions
Check out this fangraph story on the Garko debacle
I think its channeling McCovey!
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/sabean-strikes-back-non-tenders-ryan-garko
"The big thing people say to me is, 'Why don't you ever smile?' Well, I'm too interested in trying to beat somebody right now to smile." Will Clark
"I'm close to six feet, I like to think." The Freak.
I think the outrage over the Garko affair is a little overblown. People that are upset seem to forget that we were “in this thing!” and it was in-season trade to try to get us over the hump. This was at a time when Aurilia was our RHH option at 1B. Personally, I’d never thought of Barnes as a chip that was going to turn into, or bring back ,something special.
If Garko had come in and gone all Randy Winn and pushed the team into the post-season, it would have been hailed great trade.
Unfortunately, Garko didn’t work out. I think he definitely wasn’t given enough of a chance and is better than he showed. Now the team was left with the choice of tendering a guy who (according to Baggs) didn’t get along with the manager and may, in their eyes, may not be worth what he would get in arbitration. They cut bait; it happens.
Sabean rolled the dice and crapped out. I can’t blame him for trying to catch lightning in a bottle and think the upside potential of the deal was worth the risk of Barnes.
"We're in this thing!" My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman, "Sweet Jesus" Guzman and Jesus H. Guzman.
It may be a little overblown, but not much, which is saying something as to how bad this trade was. As was said so well in the FanGraphs article, the fact that we gave up our #9 prospect for him means either the organization was willing to give up that kind of talent for a two-month rental (they knew they were going to non-tender him), or more likely, they judged him worthy of our #9 prospect in July, but didn’t think he was worthy of a roster spot and a couple million dollars after 127 bad PAs here. Both options represent poor thinking, planning, and decision making on the part of the organization, and should throw up serious red flags to ownership and fans.
just a slight miscalculation
If they ran NASA John Glenn would still be orbiting Pluto in a tuna can
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
"I sometimes still can get insider info and I am not a dumb or average fan.
Molina is needed."
by natteringnabob on Dec 20, 2009 8:11 AM PST up reply actions
The Garko trade did not work because Bochy did not provide much of an opportunity for it to work. Besides, if we were trading for Garko merely as a rental player, why give up our 4th best pitching prospect? It was asinine, worthless trade.
You don’t bring in a guy like Garko expecting him to be the difference-maker. If that is why he was brought in, more reason to fire Sabean. Garko is merely a supplemental player. Granted, he’s a far better hitter than we saw in SF and would make a nice #5 here in SF. Simply non-tendering him was idiotic at best. This trade highlights once again the deficiencies associated with the Giants leadership.
"The big thing people say to me is, 'Why don't you ever smile?' Well, I'm too interested in trying to beat somebody right now to smile." Will Clark
"I'm close to six feet, I like to think." The Freak.
Garko could have been a difference-maker
It wouldn’t have taken much for him to provide a big lift over what they were getting from Aurilia.
Unfortunately, as you said, Bochy didn’t give him much of an opportunity
"We're in this thing!" My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman, "Sweet Jesus" Guzman and Jesus H. Guzman.
Nothing in recent history will top the Twins trade
Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and the Boofer for AJ Pierzynski
Another bum moment...
Essentially trading Will Clark for Robby Thomson after the ‘93 season. The Giants couldn’t afford both, so they retained Thomson coming off a career year instead of Clark after an off year. IIRC correctly, the Giants were spooked that Thomson might go to the Dodgers.
Proud father of Barry Bonds.

by 

























