A REAL Realistic look at the 2010 Giants

This post is as follows:  First, my assumptions on the roster and salary projections are provided.  Second, my opinion based on the assumptions made of the roster as it stands is provided by position.  Third, a statement of what I would like to see happen.

ASSUMPTIONS

The first assumption for the Giants is that Posey and Bumgarner will start the season in AAA and will be called up in late-May/early June.  Hence, two separate projected line-ups/rotations are provided, a pre call-up and post call-up.

The Giants currently have Velez, Torres, Rowand, Bowker, Schierholtz and Lewis in the OF.  I make the assumption that Velez, Torres, Rowand, Bowker and Schierholtz will be retained and Lewis will be traded for non-impact players.  This assumption is based on the fact that Rowand, Schierholtz and Velez are assured of playing time based on comments made by management with Bowker getting a shot at the big-league level leaving Lewis as the odd man out.

Uribe will find a starting job elsewhere and the back-up INF position will be filled by Frandsen.  Renteria will fail miserably again but because of his veteran presence will continue to get playing time although it will be in a platoon with Frandsen.

Salary projections are also provided and for arbitration eligible players I have err-ed on the higher salary side with Lincecum receiving 10M, Wilson 5M, Garko 4M and Medders 1M.

I make the assumption that the Giants will try to stay under 95M for the year.

Based on these assumptions, here are the pre and post call-up rosters and lineups for the Giants in 2010:

Lineups

The current roster and lineup as stated above remains eerily similar to last year’s inept lineup and is possibly even worse. 

The LF platoon of Velez/Torres at the top of the lineup has a career OBP of 305/290 respectively; Broken down with their respective splits of Velez against RHP and Torres against LHP:  312/330 – Below league average.  Did I mention Torres’ career K% of 25%?

CF Rowand will be Rowand.  He will bat 3rd for the 1 month that he gets hot and bat 8th the rest of the year.

RF Whether Bowkermania will translate to the big league level remains to be seen.  We should get average to above average pop with the platoon of Bowker/Schierholtz with very good defense.

1B—The Garko/Ishikawa platoon will put up JT Snow numbers.  .280/20/85.  League average.

2B--Freddy Sanchez will put up his usual line of 300/330/440 and 85/10/80.  Batting 3rd!

3B--Panda will rake.  Mark my words: He will break the single-season record for doubles with no runners on base.

SS Renteria will suck and Frandsen will – well, get some playing time?  I assume he will be Sanchez-lite.

C  Excellent defense prior to the call up.  Whiteside will call 5 no-hitters prior to the all-star break; 2 by Timmy and 1 each by the others not named Joe Martinez.  Posey should bat 5th by September, a 4 month line of .280/15/65 is what I expect.

Bench—Given all the platoons, everybody should get playing time.  But the lack of INF depth is concerning given the injury risk to Sanchez, Frandsen, Renteria and to a certain degree Sandoval--the next in line would be Rohlinger/Downs.  Bocock!

Rotation—Hands down the best rotation in baseball.  But the concern here again is the depth.  If an injury were to occur, can we tolerate a full season of Joe Martinez/Ryan Sadowski/Pucetas?

Bullpen—We should replicate the success of 2009 with much less occurrences of walk off HRs for obvious reasons.

The realistic view?  Based on my assumptions, we only have 8M to spend, we will not get a Jason Bay/Matt Holliday though management will make it seem as though they are to appease the fans.  The lack of depth in the pitching staff will not open up much on the trade front either, so no Carl Crawford.  Management’s love of Rowand’s grit and the discrepancy in contract terms = no Bradley. 

But all is not lost. Given the strength of our pitching, we only need an average offense we can only afford an average offense.  The biggest concern I have with our line up is at the top.  We will play small ball but it will be tough if we don’t have the personnel to actually get on base.  

What are our options?

There aren’t a lot of options on where we can upgrade given payroll considerations. 2B, SS, 3B, CF are locked down. 

My opinion of what a Garko/Ishikawa can produce at 1B provides great value for the 4.5M salary and it means it is also locked down.  Possible free agent acquisitions could be Nick Johnson, Adam LaRoche, Delgado and Blalock.  All would cost more than 4.5M and downgrade the defense.  Nick Johnson here is the intriguing possibility and is discussed below.

OF  Possible options here include Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, Vladimir Gurerrero, Jermaine Dye.  Given my assumptions, neither is a possibility and would create another clusterfuck that was the Giants OF 2009.  An intriguing possibility here is Coco Crisp who is coming off of double rotator cuff surgery and could provide very good value

C  Countdown for Posey 2010 begins……Now.

What I think we should do.

There are 3 positions that we can/need to upgrade: LF, possibly 1B and SP depth. 

Nick Johnson can provide a top of the order presence and has the ability to get on base in front of Pablo.  So does Coco Crisp and he plays excellent defense in LF/CF and can come on the cheap.  We have a need to add to the starting pitching depth and gain a valuable trading chip at the trading deadline.

Hence I propose 3 options but we only have the ability to do 2.  Perhaps we could do all 3 if Lincecum get 8M instead of 10M.

1.  Sign Nick Johnson for 2yr/15M (reasonable?).  This should be competitive with the offers he should receive given his injury risk.  If we were to sign Nick Johnson, we would need to trade Garko so we don’t create another clusterfuck at 1st and it will free up about 4M in salary. (Perhaps for an SP?)

2.  Sign Coco Crisp.  Fangraphs has his value at 5M but he should come a bit cheaper.  This also allows Rowand to perhaps shift to LF and Crisp to play CF, making our OF defense that much better.

3. Sign Brad Penny 1yr/$5.5M with a club option for 2011.  This strengthens our pitching staff and provides much needed depth.  If he can replicate the success he had in 2009 at AT&T, we will be golden.  This also gives us a large trade chip at the trading deadline (whether it be Sanchez or Penny )to possibly upgrade the offense since he can be replaced with Bumgarner.

DFA Torres or something to free up roster space and Velez becomes super utility 2B/OF, speed off bench.

Lineup: