Bay or Holliday
This is an interesting comparison of the two, albeit in a Boston-centric way (it's ESPN Boston). I'm still leaning Bay, though I wouldn't be upset with either.
13 days ago
BruteSentiment
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I would rather have Bay too. For this Giants team. He’ll be way cheaper in yrs, and a bit cheaper in $, and is more of a true power hitter. And I would not let his Defense scare me off either, I mean, if not Bay then Velez?
I’m really hoping they go after Bay.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 7, 2009 2:18 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Bay will pull down somewhere between $15-17 million per,
and Holliday wil get more than that. The Giants can’t afford either, thanks to the Zito, Renteria, and Rowand contracts and the raises coming for their arbitration players, given how many holes they have to fill offensively.
If I had to pick, and we were going to have to spend between $15 million and $19 million per anyway, I would opt for Bay simply so I could fill another hole with that money (a #5 starter for example).
Responsible for the last great homegrown Giants team.
by Al Rosen on Nov 7, 2009 2:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I really don’t see the Giants being serious players for either one. they might make some noise as they did with Manny last year (not ruling out options, etc) but they won’t be in on the bidding. Both just cost too much and the Giants won’t increase their payroll enough to get Bay or Holliday.
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by nostocksjustbonds on Nov 7, 2009 2:36 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
is it just me or does anybody else kind of just dislike Matt Holliday as a person? I thought he came off pretty bratty in Oakland…
Then again, I didn’t used to like Penny, either, but I wouldn’t mind having him back in the rotation.
by FPTV on Nov 7, 2009 2:47 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Holliday is basically the only big market guy I want this offseason. If we don’t get him, then I hope we focus on a ton of small upgrades.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
by rotorueter on Nov 7, 2009 2:53 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Holliday, hands down. He’d certainly be expensive, but I’d better at least hear that the Giants make an offer, even if they later get outbid by another team offering stupid money. There’s absolutely no reason not to at least try and get the best offensive player available, which is exactly what the Giants need.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Nov 7, 2009 3:01 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Matt Holliday Has Been On Average 24 Runs Better On Defense Then Jason Bay Over the Last Three Years.
Even if one baught the above analysis to conclude the Bay is actually the superior offensive player one can not possibly conclude that this offensive advantage comes anywhere close to making up for the huge defensive advantage Holliday has.
I think the offensive difference between these two is not significant one way or the other but the defensive difference makes Holliday worth at least 9M/yr (2 Wins) more the Bay. Bottom line, Matt Holliday is going to be much more likely to be worth the contract he signs even if it it the same contract Teixeria signed last year they Bay is likely to be worth the the lower contract he signs in both years and dollars.
by giantsrainman on Nov 7, 2009 4:03 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
All things equal, Holliday, of course
But I don’t think the Giants can afford him. And I’d love to have Bay.
Why do San Francisco teams insist on having terrible offenses? Frank Gore and Pablo Sandoval can't do it all.
by GiantPain on Nov 7, 2009 5:36 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
When the game was within two runs, Bay hit .300 with 25 homers and 85 RBIs. With a margin of three runs or greater, Bay hit .207 with 11 homers and 34 RBIs. Holliday hit .303 when the margin was within two runs, but .332 otherwise. In other words, in close situations, Bay was arguably the better player last season.
this is just so much fail. according to this, to be clutch you have to suck when the game isn’t close. if you’re good all the time, you can’t be clutch.
also they mention that bay walks more than holliday but kind of ignore the fact that bay strikes out quite a bit more than holliday and that holliday has a better overall OBP. the article also completely ignores defense where holliday has a pretty huge advantage.
cliffs: article sucks, holliday>>>>>>>>>>>>bay, either sign holliday or don’t sign either, do not want bay, etc
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by TimLincecumIsGod on Nov 7, 2009 5:51 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
What were you expecting
it’s ESPN.
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by Bhaakon on Nov 7, 2009 5:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
obv
i was just pointing out why it sucks
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by TimLincecumIsGod on Nov 7, 2009 5:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Suck aside, .300/25/85 in close games is just what this team needs. I don’t buy into the whole numbers to support clutchness thing, but Bay is a very good hitter and will be signed for significantly less years and money than Holliday, who brings a bit better glove to the field. If the Giants don’t seriously push for Bay, they will be forced to trade if they want a real offensive upgrade. I would rather see them keep the pitching in tact and spend a little more to get that hitter. It wouldn’t really require much of a payroll increase to get Bay and add a Jamey Carroll type player to the bench. I really think bowtie might consider it if it’s pitched right. Payroll would still be under $100million, could probably get done for around $96 or so, plus it would all but guarantee that Posey starts. To me, it’s the best case scenario of this off season.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 7, 2009 6:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
first off looking at “clutch” numbers when evaluating players is kinda silly, i suppose if there are two very equal players you can look at it as a tiebreaker but otherwise it’s kind of pointless, the amount of control a player has over how he hits in the clutch is pretty minimal.
secondly, i really don’t think bay is going to come as cheap as some of you think. the red sox opened with an offer of 4 years/$60MM and while $15MM a year might do it, 4 years won’t imo (I’m not sure i’d even want him at that price tbh). sure he has had a great bat for most of his career (was 2007 a fluke?) but his defense has been atrocious recently and really hurts his overall value. over the last few years he’s been one of the worst defensive LFers in baseball while holliday has been one of the best. if the team is willing to dish out the money for bay, i really really think it’d be worth it to pay the extra money and get holliday instead. i could see a bay signing ending up pretty poorly for the Giants (a la Rowand).
WAR-
last year:
Holliday: 5.7
Bay: 3.6
last 3 years:
Holliday: 19.8
Bay: 6.5
also Holliday is 15 months younger than Bay
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by TimLincecumIsGod on Nov 7, 2009 6:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Holliday will likely come closer to being worth his contract, but I’d rather have Cameron+Johnson+Kendall (or other similar FA catcher)+Penny (or other similar starter) for about the same price. I hope in a couple years that statement doesnt sound like “If we had signed Vlad we couldnt have gotten Michael Tucker, Dustin Hermanson,…….”
Thing A
by sam23 on Nov 7, 2009 6:58 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
It’s all about the reality of the situaish; Holliday would be the best option no doubt, but not at 6-8 years and the $. Bay on a 4 year $65-ish is the best option this offseason for this offense.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 7, 2009 9:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t see Bay on a 4yr/65ish contract being the best option for any offense in any offseason
Thing A
by sam23 on Nov 8, 2009 2:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
AS much as I hate to use this argument...
It’s not my money. I’d rather the Giants overpay for a legitimately good player like Bay than a complete zero like Renteria.
I’d rather they sign Holliday, or even Cameron (short term), but I can easily imagine Sabean finding many worse ways to spend 65 million dollars than four years of Jason Bay. Which is one of the problems with this team, but that’s a post for another thread.
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by Bhaakon on Nov 8, 2009 2:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I really don’t understand preferring Bay to Holliday.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
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by jponry on Nov 7, 2009 8:41 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Money, I guess.
Though it’s tough to imagine the difference in dollars is going to be larger than the difference in value. Holliday’s just better, and it’s not close. It would be foolish, to me at least, to turn down Holliday at 18-20M per and embrace Bays at 15-17, even if Holliday recieved a longer deal.
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by Bhaakon on Nov 7, 2009 9:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
IWould Say This Even Applies To Holliday At $21-23M
by giantsrainman on Nov 7, 2009 9:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
While I totally agree with this I just can’t see the Giants going for a 6-8 year Borris deal, and Holliday openly says he wants to go to NY, so would he even cosider SF? Bay could probably be had on a 4 year and he says geography isn’t a big deal, plus he lives in the northwest. Bay just seems like a more realistic option. If Holliday wanted to be a Giant I would be stoked, but I doubt he does.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 7, 2009 9:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Plus a Bay signing would leave room for Sabes vet utility man he desires.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 7, 2009 9:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Bay Ain't Worth The Min $15M/yr He Would Cost
Holliday is worth the maximum $23/yr he would cost. Bay’s defnese compared to Holliday’s has been worth – 24 runs a season over the last three years. Bay is another Adam Dunn and any team that signs him to more the $12M per year is being foolish. Let the Red Sox be the fools for once and pass on Bay.
by giantsrainman on Nov 7, 2009 9:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Bay is not as bad in LF as Dunn.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 7, 2009 10:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No He Isn't. But UZR In LF Over The Last 3 Years Has Been Almost As Bad.
by giantsrainman on Nov 7, 2009 10:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
USE schmuZR, just watch Bay play LF for a couple of games, then watch Dunn play and it’s not difficult to see.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 7, 2009 10:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It Is Also Deceptive.
The fact is that Bay only get to slightly more balls then Dunn does even if he does look more graceful doing it.
by giantsrainman on Nov 7, 2009 10:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Whatever, it’s an irrelivent argument anyway.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 7, 2009 11:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
To play devil's advocate
There’s some evidence that Fenway makes left fielders’ UZR look worse than their actual performance.
Of course, Bay’s defense stunk before the trade, so… never mind.
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by Bhaakon on Nov 8, 2009 2:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
when did Holliday say he wants to go to NY? The only reference I saw to him preferring NY came from Jon Heyman, and HE’S in NY and thinks that everyone wants to play there.
No Edgar, it's not your fault, it's the fault of the idiot that plays you
by rxmeister on Nov 8, 2009 8:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Unless there's video of him saying it
I wouldn’t give these kind of rumors any credence.No smart FA or their agent is going to reveal that kind of strong preference and possibly hurt his negotiating position, so any such info is probably either coming third hand from a person who doesn’t really know, or it’s completely made up by someone with an agenda.
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by Bhaakon on Nov 8, 2009 3:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Plus, of course EVERY FA wants the Yankees to know that “hey, if you’re willing to pay me like you pay all those other guys, I sure wouldn’t mind wearing pinstripes!” … Given his experiences last year, I could see Holliday having a slight preference for the NL or St. Louis. Otherwise, though, he’s just going to go to the highest bidder.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Nov 8, 2009 4:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
But
Wasn’t Pittsburgh’s LF pretty hostile to defense as well?
I could be talking out of my ass.
Why do San Francisco teams insist on having terrible offenses? Frank Gore and Pablo Sandoval can't do it all.
by GiantPain on Nov 8, 2009 10:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see why it woud be.
None of the guys playing left for the Pirates since Bay have had any issues, and Giles was only a couple runs below average before the Pirate got Bay. If left field at PNC does negatively impact UZR, Jason Bay seems to be the only one it’s effecting.
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by Bhaakon on Nov 8, 2009 11:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Just out of curiosity, does anyone know if Uggla has ever played LF?
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 7, 2009 10:05 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Every game as a major leaguer has been at second base.
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by djp4cal on Nov 7, 2009 11:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He has 20 minor league games in the outfield, all in 2004.
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by Bhaakon on Nov 7, 2009 11:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Matt Holliday is awesome because he catches baseballs with his crotch.
Tommy Joseph is the Dingerzball Wizard
by SoFa King Mike on Nov 8, 2009 12:15 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
actually he drops baseballs with his crotch.
No Edgar, it's not your fault, it's the fault of the idiot that plays you
by rxmeister on Nov 8, 2009 8:17 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m getting pretty tired of hearing what the Giants can and can’t afford. We’re in a bigger media market than Boston and we’re not even approaching a $100 million in payroll.
If we’re paying among the highest in tickets, concessions, and parking why shouldn’t we be spending among the most in payroll?
I’m not saying just throw money at players that won’t help the team but is it really our jobs as fans to decide who’s too pricey for our team to go after?
Rafael Rodriguez: #8 on our list, tearing up Scottsdale, and has been alive long enough to see the Warriors make the playoffs once.
by BrianBokake on Nov 8, 2009 2:34 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
20M in annual mortgage payments.
Don’t worry, only another 11 years till it’s paid off.
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by Bhaakon on Nov 8, 2009 2:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
BS Arguement Since They Get To Dedute These Payments From Their Revenue Sharing Obligations
by giantsrainman on Nov 8, 2009 9:44 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, right
Revenue sharing costs money too.
Of course, their new broadcast venture should provide the Giants with a handy way to hide revenue.
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by Bhaakon on Nov 8, 2009 3:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I also thought that one of the Giants owners owned the bank they borrowed the money from. Out one pocket, in the other.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Nov 8, 2009 4:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I heard that too
But even if it’s true, it doesn’t mean he doesn’t want his money back.
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by Bhaakon on Nov 8, 2009 5:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
But It Does Mean The Profit (Interest) All Stays Within The Giants Family
by giantsrainman on Nov 8, 2009 6:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
True
But the principle isn’t the owners’ money, it’s the bank’s (really, the bank’s depositors). The owner would have no authority to forgive the principle of the loan.
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by Bhaakon on Nov 8, 2009 11:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
My Understanding Is That The Funding Of The Loan Was Private
The bank involved mearly administers it. I have actually heard (but I can not prove) that the owners of the Giants were the sole contributers to this funding and thus it is really just a vehicle for them to take profit without that profit being publicly identified as belonging to the ballclub.
by giantsrainman on Nov 8, 2009 11:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Seems obvious to me that Holliday’s the better player, but I wouldn’t get too worked up about it — doesn’t seem to me like the Giants have any interest in going after either. I’d guess Sabes is going into this winter thinking he’s going to wait out the market and see where the Abreu/Uribe type bargains are in February.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
by Roger on Nov 8, 2009 6:40 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
yeah, I don’t see the Giants’ signing either. With regards to Bay, when have we ever won a price war with a big market team like the Red Sox? As for Holliday, he’s a Boras client and he’s going to sign very late. You could waste your whole off season chasing Holliday, while your “Plan B” choices are signing with other teams. It’s not worth it.
No Edgar, it's not your fault, it's the fault of the idiot that plays you
by rxmeister on Nov 8, 2009 8:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Just to clarify, I think Holliday probably would be worth it (although I grant they’d probably have to significantly overpay to get him out to the 2 am highlight belt); I just don’t think that’s the front office’s view. I think they’re actually content with a Velez/Torres, Rowand, Schierholtz lineup in the OF if that’s what they had to go with, and are going to wait to see if the market drops any bargain upgrades in their lap. From that standpoint, they’re holding “plan B” in their hands already, which should make going after somebody like Holliday easier (not having to worry about losing Plan Bs) but I don’t believe that’s the approach the FO is going to take.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
by Roger on Nov 8, 2009 8:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sabean waiting out the market?
Don’t buy it.
And Uribe isn’t waiting out the market, he’s an MLB lotto ticket. There’s a difference between getting an established, productive player at a discount and filling out the Spring roster with a schlub who happens to catch lightning in a bottle. Luck’s involved in both signings, but much more so in the second; it’s the difference between expecting a deal to work out and being pleasantly surprised to shocked when a deal works out.
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by Bhaakon on Nov 8, 2009 3:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well in this case “waiting out the market” translates to: “feeling perfectly comfortable going into the season with Velez as your starting LF” so it’s not like it’s a sign a great acumen.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
by Roger on Nov 9, 2009 12:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If he's really comfortable with Velez, sure.
But if he’s merely willing to RISK starting Velez (or Bowker, or Lewis)in order to avoid making another of his seemingly annual early offseason free agent blunders, then it’s pretty smart.
And I mean that in the way I say my dog is pretty smart when it finally figures out, after smashing it’s skull for the hundredth time, that it can’t walk through the sliding door glass door.
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by Bhaakon on Nov 9, 2009 5:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
neither
3y – $15 mil for marlon byrd, please
by giantdonkey on Nov 8, 2009 2:15 PM PST reply actions 0 recs


















