Dan Runzler: Top Prospect?
by Grant Brisbee on Nov 30, 2009 3:16 PM PST
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PrintI’ve got a rabbit season/duck season thing going in my head when the World Series ends. Prospect ranking season! Rosterbation season! Prospect ranking season! And then the prospect sites go alphabetically…and then they do the American League first…and they all spell out Saint Louis like a bunch of lawyers, so the Giants are always the 29th team covered. By the time the Giants’ list usually comes out, I’m half-blind from the rosterbation and helplessly floating six-team trade ideas that involve non-roster invitees and mascots. But at least the publishing delay usually allowed me to rank my top 30 prospects without a whole lot of outside influence. Because there’s nothing worse than having knowledgeable people and publications influence your half-baked opinions. Nothing.
Baseball America buttonhooked me, though, by reversing the order for their top-10 schedule this year and putting the Giants list up early. I had a top-30 list made, but it was a real rough mockup, and it is certainly subject to influence. Every year, there’s a ranking that surprises me. There’s always a Jackson Williams or a David Maroul slipped in the top-30, and their inclusion always makes me doubt my rankings and omissions. This year, there’s a huge surprise right there in the top-10: Dan Runzler.
I’m not surprised he slipped in the top-10, really. He gave up a half of an earned run across seventeen different levels, or so. The number five prospect, though? In the entire system? I had him as the fifteenth-best prospect when I did my preliminary list. I started second-guessing myself after receiving this "informed opinion" of "someone who has spent a lot more time researching this crap than I have." In an e-mail conversation with Andrew Baggarly – the author of the BA list, in case you’re new to this internet thing – he mentioned that:
The one guy everyone kept telling me to move up was Runzler. I had him fifth and they were still telling me he's too low. One very respected coach even told me to put Runzler above MadBum. I couldn't quite go that far.
My mind was blown. Runzler sure played the part of a top reliever when he made the majors: his fastball was fast and his curveball sure curved real purty-like. But a middle reliever’s ceiling can’t be that high, right?
I split the difference and moved Runzler up to #9 in my now-tainted rankings. I’m almost certain that I’m too biased against middle relievers. A few years ago, I ranked Brian Wilson as the #9 prospect, invoking the "he’s just a middle reliever" defense. But Wilson he’s meant more to the success of the Giants than anyone else on the list above him other than that shaggy-haired guy with all of the trophies. When a guy throws in the mid-90s and complements that with a nasty breaking ball, he has a good chance to pitch some meaningful, high-leverage innings.
So what’s the secret sauce? How high should relievers be ranked? If a guy has a fantastic power arm, should I really ding him because he only might be Arthur Rhodes, which in his prime was a pretty fantastic thing for a team to have? Obviously a starter of comparable stuff is more valuable, but what of a starter with a ceiling as a #3 or #4 guy in a rotation? Should that pitcher be higher than a potential shutdown reliever? Should I cram a few more questions into this closing paragraph?
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Just more proof that middle relievers are becoming more important for teams.
"It ain't over till it's over." - Yogi Berra
surplus? Do tell!
Congrats to my soul mate and birth brother Zach Wheeler on being drafted into greatness. Should I just buy my Wheeler jersey now, or wait till my next birthday?
4 non-closer relievers with 30+ IP and ERAs under 4.
And Runzler isn’t even one of them.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
next years bullpen locks, Wilson, Romo, Affeldt, Runzler. That is not a surplus. Medders is a mirage, Valdez is horrible, Joaquin needs seasoning and Joey Martinez might not cut it.
Congrats to my soul mate and birth brother Zach Wheeler on being drafted into greatness. Should I just buy my Wheeler jersey now, or wait till my next birthday?
Veldez wasn't one of them.
I was joking anyway (The joke being that middle relievers still have no trade value)
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
I would put Joaquin in the Mirage category. Dude needs another pitch.
WHY IS BOCOCK?!
by Lars The Wanderer on Dec 1, 2009 3:43 PM PST up reply actions
true, but with his stuff and age he could have a future so i put him in the seasoning category. His fb is electric
Congrats to my soul mate and birth brother Zach Wheeler on being drafted into greatness. Should I just buy my Wheeler jersey now, or wait till my next birthday?
Not a mirage
The Mirage is where Dino played (see photo above). Medders is solid if not spectacular. Valdez IS horrible!
Don't believe everything you think.
medders and j.miller
are not surplus. sirminus, maybe….
0.76 era is hard to get past
I want to rank him under the still question mark that is Tommy Joseph and the 1 good year off Kieschnick, but I dont know..
0.76 era in 59 inn with 83 Ks
Its funny because fuck the dodgers
That little blurb doesn’t make me feel any better about the Giants farm system, good lord. Runzler should be higher than five?
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
I’m pretty sure it was meant as effusive praise for Runzler rather than as skepticism for Neal or Wheeler.
by Grant Brisbee on Nov 30, 2009 3:31 PM PST up reply actions
I know, but still. No one seems to think of him as more than a reliever, late innings or not.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
Short-innings Bias!
Officially disinterested in any high school outfielders from the state of Mississippi.
Yea my first thought was “oh no! any team with a middle reliever among their top 5 prospects doesn’t have a very deep farm system.” But I’m more than willing to try to forget that thought and begin discussing how Runzler/Affeldt/Wilson won’t allow a single run after the 6th inning next year.
Thing A
Excuse me
Runzler/ROMO/Affeldt/Wilson
You dropped a reliever.
If you can get 3:2 on a headline of "Giants Pitcher Assaults General Manager" at some point this year, take it.
I’d trust Romo more than Runzler. But I’d be ok with any or all of them late in the game.
If you can get 3:2 on a headline of "Giants Pitcher Assaults General Manager" at some point this year, take it.
One very respected coach even told me to put Runzler above MadBum.
I don’t think I respect that coach at all.
Actually, it might be someone who is down on MadBum rather than high on Runzler.
Isn’t Bochy respected by a lot of people? And by “a lot of people” I mean, “people who don’t watch the Giants on a regular basis and aren’t Keith Law”
Wall-E for Best Picture 2008
Cain is able... Keane is able
by Useful_Idiot on Nov 30, 2009 3:52 PM PST up reply actions
Baggs said that was more about how highly the coach was on Runzler rather than anything disparaging about Mad Bum.
by Grant Brisbee on Nov 30, 2009 4:04 PM PST up reply actions
So then Runzler is better than one of the top five pitching prospects in baseball?
Because if he isn’t, then it’s ALL about Bumgarner’s decline.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Well, Bumgarner still hasn’t developed a reliable second pitch, so it’s easy to see why a Dan Runzler would compare favorably – it’s the old “bird in the hand” philosophy.
I believe that those of us who value ML competence will generally be more correct in these kinds of lists, overall; those of you who put more emphasis on superstar potential will be both more-right and more-wrong on any given year than we would be. I see it as being similar to a willingness to gamble – you’ll have bigger payoffs, and bigger losses.
If we ranked them strictly on our own view of Superstardom (i.e., who has the highest ceiling), I think I might rank Wheeler #1 overall. I would certainly rank him above Bumgarner, in that view, simply because Wheeler appears to have some command of a secondary pitch.
Officially disinterested in any high school outfielders from the state of Mississippi.
In this case it’s not just super-stardom. Even if Bumgarner just becomes a guy who throws 200 IP of 4.00 ERA, he’ll already be more valuable than Runzler is likely to be, assuming he stays a reliever.
And Runzler has pitched exactly 20 innings above A+ (and walked a ton of hitters). I think it’s way too soon to call him a bird in the hand.
I was promised lasagna.
There’s no reason to think that Bumgarner is on a decline, or even tapped into his full potential. The guy is Mad young, you know?
I’ve only seen him pitch once, but he commanded the mound with a lot of comfort and grace. It’s likely there was a lot of pressure on him from the org not to overthrow which might be why he threw so many high 80s fastballs, which granted is unimpressive. Aside from a few dingerz, he never really got shelled. He’s reminiscent of a very young RJ, before the years of utter domination.
Last offseason, Bumgarner was considered a top 10 pitching prospect.
His failure to develop a secondary pitch, and his declining velocity, and the associated collapse in K rate al = lower prospects ranking. With prospects, stagnation is decline.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
so quick to write-off?
Sabermetrics Jr.
If you’re going to use such a small sample size — how about these stats*?
ERA IP H BB SO
1.80 10.0 8 3 10
*Under actual major League conditions
There are exceptions, but for the most part relievers are somewhat replaceable. I like Runzler a lot — but not enough to put him in the top five. If he were a starter with that kind of success, yes.
Lex Luthor
Tommy Joseph is the Dingerzball Wizard
by SoFa King Mike on Nov 30, 2009 3:42 PM PST up reply actions
I found a verbal Kent
Zincecaingarnerchez (Zins-ě-keyn-gahrnər-chez)
1. A five-headed monster that turns grown men's legs into jelly.
YES
Tommy Joseph is the Dingerzball Wizard
by SoFa King Mike on Dec 1, 2009 12:35 PM PST up reply actions
Ranking Runzler #5 and giving affelt a MVP vote
Baggerly sure loves his lefty relievers
Although in Baggerly’s chat he said that Baseball America moved around a couple guys, so obviously they liked him at #5 too.
Grant,
Thinking of Runzler as a “middle reliever” might be the problem. It’s kind of like looking at Posey as a back-up catcher. In looking at a prospect, aren’t we supposed project where they’ll ultimately end up? With Runzler’s stuff and left-handedness, I think it’s more fair to project him as a “late innings reliever”.
If people are projecting him as a Jeremy Affeldt-type pitcher, his ranking seems pretty fair.
"We're in this thing!" My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman, "Sweet Jesus" Guzman and Jesus H. Guzman.
I’d go further. “Reliever” is just a role. What he is is a pitcher.
If the Giants choose to make Runzler a low-leverage 70-inning guy (rather than a high-leverage 70-inning guy or a high-leverage 90-inning guy or a low-leverage 150-inning guy), that’s their decision, but it shouldn’t affect how we appraise him as a prospect.
This.
I’m ok with the ranking. I’m not gonna hold his role against the guy.
I guess when I think of a top prospect, I think of someone who moves up the farm system quickly and if/when called up can make an immediate and significant contribution to his MLB team. That’s Runzler in ’09.
In any case, I doubt he’ll stay a prospect for long. The team needs a second lefty reliever and it’s clear Bochy is comfortable using Runzler in different situations, including really tough spots.
If you can get 3:2 on a headline of "Giants Pitcher Assaults General Manager" at some point this year, take it.
look at it this way
Even just going off WAR, which doesn’t account for leverage, Wilson was the 3rd most valuable pitcher on the staff. He had 2/3 of Cain’s value in 1/3 of Cain’s innings, and was worth more than Zito and Sanchez in less than half the innings of each.
If you go by WPA, it’s even more stark, as pitchers 3-6 on that list are relievers.
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
I’ll just point out that by WAR, Wilson was also tied for the 3rd most valuable reliever in all of baseball…
by Missing Barry on Nov 30, 2009 8:21 PM PST up reply actions
Romo is the closer of the future
But Runzler might be the closer of the future future.
Desirous of Matt Holliday and Dan Uggla since 2009.
But not too far into the future’s future, eh?
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Nov 30, 2009 4:37 PM PST up reply actions
Interesting.
Perhaps we could reverse the question – what would it take to get a relief prospect into a group of top tier prospects? What would it take to have a reliever grouped just below Posey and Bumgarner, say?
If he was guaranteed (as far as an pitcher can be “guaranteed”) to be Mariano Rivera-like as a closer, would that do it? Or Houston Street as the reasonable comp with Rivera as the upside? If he looked like he could turn into Billy Wagner, or Mike Gonzalez (the healthy one)? I’m mostly just naming closers, but what if his immediate upside was, I dunno, something like Heath Bell when Hoffman was closer?
Two things stand out to me at this point – first that Rivera or other current “closers” were usually considered high end prospects as starters first. Pabelbon or Joba (East Coast bias!) would be recent examples. It really is a only recent development to look at a prospect strictly as a reliever, with guys like Street or Chad Cordero as examples. The second is that Heath Bell type discoveries don’t really happen that often. Yes, Heath Bell was basically free, as was Soria in KC. But other than that, is there really a top flight reliever that was acquired so cheaply? (Don’t you DARE say Joe Nathan!)
I think teams are getting smarter in that respect, and I also think the nature of cheap talent in the bullpen is in the inherent volatility of bullpen arms. Miller and Medders were great, cheap/free pickups, but if they were the top guys in our bullpen, we would all probably be nervous wrecks after every close game. Affeldt was available, but not cheap.
So, to me, the real question is twofold, regarding Runzler: first, is he a top-flight bullpen arm? The indication from Baggs would be that the SF front office thinks so. I trust their evaluation of pitching talent a lot more than I do their evaluation of hitting talent (which isn’t exactly saying a ton). Second, how much value does a cheap, controlled top-flight bullpen arm give to a team? If that commands X-million dollars on the free market, it seems reasonable to view that as money saved on the Giants payroll.
None of this touches the subject of whether relievers and closers in particular are payed at a level that matches what the contribute to a team (I suspect not), but that’s an whole other can of worms.
I'm as tall as Mel - why can't I hit 500 home runs?
Really good post
Thanks – well said!
Officially disinterested in any high school outfielders from the state of Mississippi.
Dudes good
But I gotta say hes not top 5, MAYBE top 10. If he were in line to be our closer I might consider putting him top 5
#1 threat to America: Pandas
Also, Tim Lincecum
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Nov 30, 2009 4:26 PM PST reply actions
Does the positional need at the major league level determine the value of a prospect?
"Just another ahahahaha... laugher."
bok bok bok... BOCOCK!
This is a real good point. Who the Giants have closing right now shouldn’t change his rank on a prospect list. He may become a future closer, allowing the Giants to part ways with Wilson, get traded himself as a potential closer for another team or just be one hell of an 8th inning guy. Any of those would be pretty dang valuable.
yes for example when the Phillies had Jim Thome, that did not make Ryan Howard any less valuable as a prospect
Congrats to my soul mate and birth brother Zach Wheeler on being drafted into greatness. Should I just buy my Wheeler jersey now, or wait till my next birthday?
Maybe not the value overall, but the value of the prospect to the team, definetly.
#1 threat to America: Pandas
Also, Tim Lincecum
Adopted Father: Tyler Graham
Official McPokeMaster
Registered Velezbian and supporter of Fredemption
by GrahamCrakalaka on Nov 30, 2009 9:53 PM PST up reply actions
I will now never be able to look at a Dan Runzler curve ball without imagining it running through a wildflower bedecked meadow in soft focus and slow motion, in pigtails and a pioneer dress. Thanks Grant.
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Nov 30, 2009 4:28 PM PST reply actions
Runzler
1. Posey
2. MadBum
3. Neal
4. Wheeler
5. Vilalona
6. RafRod
7. Runzler
Runzler
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Nov 30, 2009 4:38 PM PST up reply actions
RUNNNNNNZLERRRR!!!!
I don't know anything about minor league players, so I adopted the Coke Bottle, and it's totally grown on me.
'The longer I do this the smarter I get' --Brian Sabean
maybe they’re afraid not to, if you know what I mean.
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Nov 30, 2009 5:40 PM PST up reply actions
Villalona’s tough to rate because there’s so many ways he could go. He could be the second coming of Pablo, in a best-case scenario. He could never make the bigs, even if he doesn’t have legal issues. There’s so much room between floor and ceiling that I really have no idea where to put the guy, although right now i’m leaning toward the 10-15 range.
Petey and Fresh always dunking on Spartans,
Biscuits in baskets from Heatley and Thornton,
Bam-Bam and Gore on the way to some rings,
These are a few of my favorite things.
what's the criteria?
it seems that BA often places emphasis on proximity to the majors and he’s a guy who’s there right now and ready to contribute right now as a valuable relief arm. His ceiling may be stud closer and the likelihood of him reaching at least stud late-inning reliever status seem fairly reasonable right now. It all may be an illusion and he’ll go Hinshaw on us in 2010, but as of now, he’s probably a top 10 prospect for this system.
Neal before Zod!
Official Sponsor of the 1997 San Francisco Giants
by nostocksjustbonds on Nov 30, 2009 4:45 PM PST reply actions
he’s still on the 40-man roster.
Neal before Zod!
Official Sponsor of the 1997 San Francisco Giants
by nostocksjustbonds on Nov 30, 2009 6:14 PM PST up reply actions
Mailman
Giant Dirtbags: John Bowker, Steve Hammond. MIA List: Todd Jennings, Brian Anderson
Jeremy Affeldt induces DP's
by Giant among Angels on Nov 30, 2009 7:16 PM PST up reply actions
Tommy Joseph
Dude does not have boyish charms
Obviously any links in the above post are probably NSFW
He looks like he should be working at the Home Depot.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
That dude just got out of high school?
He have old ugly face.
Sometimes, there's a man...well, he's the man for his time and place.
That's Rough
Hasn’t played a game for our system yet but he already has the seed planted for a very catchy nickname in “Old Ugly Face”. Hell, I’m already referring to him as Ole’ UF in my mind.
Bea Arthur is a favorite around these parts.
WHY IS BOCOCK?!
by Lars The Wanderer on Dec 1, 2009 10:59 AM PST up reply actions
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
I really hope that is ’shopped
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 1, 2009 11:16 AM PST up reply actions
Nope.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
I’m glad I don’t read this stuff in an office at work.
"All I know is right now, you comeback and do you dwell on that? I think you're man enough to take it, you're man enough to chew on it, to spit it out and you learn from it. ... I think winners let it go. I think losers dwell on it and talk about it all week and that screws you up for the next opportunity going forward." - Mike Singletary after the 49ers loss to the Vikings
DINGERZ!
Looks like he took a couple to the face…
Tommy Joseph is the Dingerzball Wizard
by SoFa King Mike on Dec 1, 2009 12:42 PM PST up reply actions
1. Runzler
2. Pill
3. Bond
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
Don’t forget Ford and Sadowski…
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
Revised List
1. Runzler
2. Pill
3. Bond
4. EME
5. Ryan The Big Sadowski
6. Jacks
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
When will you ever learn?
It is Bocox
Neal before Zod!
Official Sponsor of the 1997 San Francisco Giants
by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 1, 2009 10:35 AM PST up reply actions
I’m in the crowd that has Relievers as 10-20 on prospect lists. That said, both Runzler and Edlefsen had amazing seasons. Runzler looked pretty good in his stint in SF. While I disagree with the ranking, I understand it. I choose to rank Runzler in the 10-15 range because of potential impact, and his upside as a closer is probably the least impactful of the guys in the top 10, especially the 2 shortstops and that horrible catching prospect. Prospect lists are not the be all-end all, just look at Pablo Sandoval. Runzler may end up having more value than Crawford or Kieschnick in the long run, but his upside is not greater than theirs, and therefore he is lower on my list.
Proud adoptive daddy for the Big Unit, who is currently teaching Madison Bumgarner the art of being intimidating.
how do you gauge the likelihood of Runzler achieving his lower upside than those other guys who are further from the majors from achieving theirs? I suppose this “equation” is always an issue when doing these prospect rankings.
Neal before Zod!
Official Sponsor of the 1997 San Francisco Giants
by nostocksjustbonds on Nov 30, 2009 6:23 PM PST up reply actions
I personally believe that Crawford and Neal have pretty good chances at reaching their upside. I’d agree that Runzler has a better chance than those two, but a fair amount of the top 10 will be in the high minors this upcoming season, meaning that the difference in chance of reaching upside isn’t as great.
Proud adoptive daddy for the Big Unit, who is currently teaching Madison Bumgarner the art of being intimidating.
by Speedforthewin on Nov 30, 2009 7:18 PM PST up reply actions
Wilson was ranked #5 in 2007 by BA
If you think Runzler can be a closer, there is nothing wrong with the ranking. Closer prospects get high rankings a lot. This is more of an issue of how he’s being used than how good he is. And he’s really good.
Maybe someone in the organization sees Runzler as Wilson’s successor.
that’s what Baggs implied in the BA chat. There’s certainly reason for optimism with Runzler, he was great last year and is still young. He was a 9th round pick, so it isn’t as if the Giants took a late round flyer on the guy and just got lucky.
But if that’s his ceiling and he has dominating stuff and has performed well (at least last season) the only reason not rank him in the top 10 is b/c of the view that short relievers are much less valuable to the team, which in many cases, is true. However, when considering his proximity to the majors, his upside and likelihood of achieving that upside (or getting as close to it as possible) he’s a prospect. I had him at no. 8 in the recent fanpost, so 5 is a tad high for me, but not totally without merit. I had Stoffel at 10, so maybe I just have an affinity for set-up guys with closer potential.
Neal before Zod!
Official Sponsor of the 1997 San Francisco Giants
by nostocksjustbonds on Nov 30, 2009 6:43 PM PST up reply actions
Eh, I wouldn’t put a reliever that high. 150 innings out of an average starter is pretty comparable to ~70 innings out of a very good reliever, so I just don’t feel it warrants that high a ranking unless there’s a possibility he’ll start at some point. That said, the more important point. The Giants organizational philosophy that Sabean’s fed us has been the whole “acquire surplus arms, trade them for hitters”. Well, it sure as hell looks to me like we have surplus arms. Wilson, Romo, Affeldt, Runzler, Cain, Lincecum, Sanchez, Zito, Madbum….I demand hitters. Isn’t that how the process is supposed to work?
we got Sanchez and Garko didn't we?
then Sabean realized that he’d have to give up pitchers that are actually valuable and thus backed out of the pitching prospects for hitters strategy.
Neal before Zod!
Official Sponsor of the 1997 San Francisco Giants
by nostocksjustbonds on Nov 30, 2009 6:44 PM PST up reply actions
The Giants’ kitchen is about as bare as the one you had in your first apartment. They’ve got a lot of Top Ramen ( Travis Ishikawa, Fred Lewis, Eli Whiteside), an expensive frozen Ostrich steak their weird uncle sent them as a gift ( Aaron Rowand), some old produce that’s turning into liquid before their very eyes in the crisper drawer ( Edgar Renteria), and a case of PBR ( Eugenio Velez, John Bowker, Kevin Frandsen, Nate Schierholtz). In other words, they’ve got food, but nothing you’d want to eat.
Chef Brian Sabean has stocked his cupboard with a dearth of offense, aside from a nice fillet of Panda.
It’s true, the Giants have a couple bottles of Cristal in their cellar (Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain) and their spice rack (bullpen) has enough to compliment the right plate. But if this were Top Chef , Padma Lakshmi would have the unenviable task of judging the Giants’ dish.
If you can get 3:2 on a headline of "Giants Pitcher Assaults General Manager" at some point this year, take it.
by esseffgeez on Nov 30, 2009 6:48 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
that's fantastic.
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
I wouldn’t mind a hint of Padma, myself.
Wait, what were we talking about?
Tommy Joseph is the Dingerzball Wizard
by SoFa King Mike on Dec 1, 2009 12:41 PM PST up reply actions
I love how everyone seems to ignore his issues with giving out walks at a ridiculous pace. Runzler has serious implosion capability.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
pshaw
Congrats to my soul mate and birth brother Zach Wheeler on being drafted into greatness. Should I just buy my Wheeler jersey now, or wait till my next birthday?
if only!
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Nov 30, 2009 8:23 PM PST up reply actions
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Nov 30, 2009 8:24 PM PST up reply actions
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Nov 30, 2009 8:28 PM PST up reply actions
But RAPTORS!
co-dad w/AfDC of
Ishikawa, the Topps Rookie All Star Team's First baseman. Does he get a chance in 2010?
RAPTORS!
I don't know anything about minor league players, so I adopted the Coke Bottle, and it's totally grown on me.
'The longer I do this the smarter I get' --Brian Sabean
Not true. At the theaters (yes I saw it) a lot of the teenagers moaned with disgust at the sight of a 1/2 clothed Edward.
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 1, 2009 12:45 PM PST up reply actions
Marilyn is Finkle, Finkle is Einhorn, Marilyn is Einhorn!
Giant Dirtbags: John Bowker, Steve Hammond. MIA List: Todd Jennings, Brian Anderson
Jeremy Affeldt induces DP's
by Giant among Angels on Nov 30, 2009 8:18 PM PST reply actions
LOOGY for next season
Then who knows?
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
holy shit
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
Doc Ellis: “I ran over to first, and I was like, TOUCHDOWN!”
Giant Dirtbags: John Bowker, Steve Hammond. MIA List: Todd Jennings, Brian Anderson
Jeremy Affeldt induces DP's
by Giant among Angels on Nov 30, 2009 9:16 PM PST up reply actions
So what you’re saying is, the next morning that unicorn is going to have a nasty case of the Runzlers?
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Nov 30, 2009 10:43 PM PST up reply actions
Blocked
Nothing disgusting about it but the image was giving me a headache.
"All I know is right now, you comeback and do you dwell on that? I think you're man enough to take it, you're man enough to chew on it, to spit it out and you learn from it. ... I think winners let it go. I think losers dwell on it and talk about it all week and that screws you up for the next opportunity going forward." - Mike Singletary after the 49ers loss to the Vikings
wow. just wow.
Adopted brother of Jason Jarvis. To pass the time during the offseason I decided to try my hand at blogging about photography and music.
Happy Pony is on
And I’m not missing Happy Pony!
WHY IS BOCOCK?!
by Lars The Wanderer on Dec 1, 2009 10:24 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
This looks like an episode of E! True Hollywood Story: Happy Pony
Adopted brother of Jason Jarvis. To pass the time during the offseason I decided to try my hand at blogging about photography and music.
by j14 on Dec 1, 2009 10:37 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
what the fuck
His name's Clayton, not Danny.
by walkoff baltimore chop on Dec 1, 2009 2:38 PM PST up reply actions
I was honestly thinking of this as a fine debate earlier this weekend, before seeing these rankings. Rankings can be about what you value or don’t. Some value ceiling, some value likeliness to actually make an impact. Nothing wrong there.
I personally don’t have any problem with middle relievers being moved that high. I think in general middle relievers have been undervalued for a long time. After all, now that the world of baseball is clearly moving away from the importance of wins and recognizing that they aren’t the end all. Why? Because wins are dependent significantly on others. What others? Well, in no small part, RELIEVERS. Middle relievers, at that.
People talk about how they are easily replaceable. I say crap. It’s easy to find relievers. It’s not easy to replace the good ones. A lot are found out of just plain luck. A Jeremy Affeldt-like reliever would’ve made a heck of a difference on a team like the 2003 Giants.
Lately, the minors are starting to see a reversal in the way relievers are bred. They aren’t primarily converted starters anymore. Sure, some are. But more and more, you’re seeing relievers start relieving in the low levels of the minors, if not in college. They focus on the two pitches they need for that job, rather than trying to make four pitches happen. They focus on the one inning than the seven. They are the sprinters of the baseball world to the rotation’s marathon men.
And maybe that’s why some relievers in the past have been hit and miss: they always had the goal of trying to get back into starting. And it stops them from being effective.
All this being said, Runzler’s not this high on my list. He needs a better track record. As great as he was this season, he is only one season from serious control issues. At this point, I’m not ready to put him this high. But that doesn’t mean I’m opposed to the idea of relievers being this high.
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Now you can follow SFDugout.com on Twitter and Facebook!•
The reason I thnk middle relievers are valued so low
Is that failed starting and closing prospects can still have successful careers as middle relievers, it’s relatively rare for it to work out the other way around (particularly middle reliever to starter). Not only is the upside limited, but the actual pool of talent he’s competing with is ALL other pitchers, not just middle relievers.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
And like I said...
…you’re seeing less and less of those failed starters find their way into those middle roles, which is tightening things up. There’s more of a focus to develop guys as middle relievers than make it the garbage role of the team, like some people view first base as in the field.
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Now you can follow SFDugout.com on Twitter and Facebook!•
by BruteSentiment on Dec 1, 2009 2:58 AM PST up reply actions
But middle relief is the garbage role of the team, isn’t it? Those guys don’t pitch many innings, and when they do, quite often the game has effectively been won or lost already. There’s no way they can have as much effect on the team’s fortunes as even a super-bench guy like Juan Uribe.
Perhaps the best way to develop good relievers is by having them specialize from day one, but I doubt it. In my experience, people get good at something by testing their limits, trying new things, finding out what works and what doesn’t.
And if your development process causes you to lock a pitcher who would have developed into a solid starter into a relief role, you’ve made a disastrous move.
Less and less of them?
Any evidence for this? Looking over the 2009 Giants relievers who threw at least as many innings as Runzler
Wilson: Full time reliever (closer) prospect
Affeldt: Failed MLB starter (42 starts)
Howry: Failed minor league starter (3 seasons/65 starts) then closer (1 season/29 saves)
Medders: Mostly reliever (12 minor league starts, none since sophomore season)
Valdez: Failed minor league starter
Miller: Failed MLB starter (33 starts)
Romo: Failed minor league starter (24 starts)
If the groomed minor league middle relief prospect is becoming more prominent, he still doesn’t seem to be in the majority (at least in the Giants’ pen).
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
If Dan Runzler has got such a highly touted arm then he should be on the path of a closer or a starter IMO. Middle relief or setup man seems to be a waste of talent. On that note doesn’t it make a ton of sense to try and stretch him out to be a starter? Let Runz and MadBum duke it out in AAA all year while we give Sanchez the chance to build up his last bit of value.
We just traded who for who?!
A few thoughts on Runzler and the overall discussion:
- I can’t get too worked up over who ranks where. The thing I love most about the Baseball America lists is the scouting reports.
- Once you get past the top four Giants’ prospects, it’s kind of wide open. All the candidates have flaws. So if BA wants to go with the lefty reliever who throws 95-97 mph, I’m OK with it.
- Buster Posey got a heckuva a writeup. It’s probably the most positive report I’ve read for a Giants prospect in years, maybe ever.
- It sounds like Tommy Joseph impressed everyone in instructional league, which is heartening. He’s one I’m really interested in seeing debut next year.
Ditto this.
Also, these ranking aren’t all about overall ceiling. Somewhere in there is the consideration of certainty and facility at reaching said ceiling. As I see it, he’s a prospect with only one red flag (aside from the possibility of injury) left on his prospect status, and that’s the oft mentioned possible reversion to the 6W/IP as opposed to the 3.5W/IP that was part of his huge step last year.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Dec 1, 2009 7:05 AM PST up reply actions
Only if it includes Valtrex?
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 1, 2009 5:15 PM PST up reply actions
Zito has a Festivus pole?
... null, void, invalid, iniquitous, unjust, damnable, reprobate, inane, empty of meaning and effect for all time
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