Baserunning epic fail, and Winn
Here's a quick preview of a baserunning evaluation that's due to appear in the next Bill James Abstract. No surprise, Bengie Molina is the worst baserunner in baseball. Hes' given up -104 runs on the base paths since 2005. To put that in perspective, he's been 114.9 Runs above replacements with the bat over the same span, so he's given up virtually his entire value as a hitter back via his terrible baserunning. There ares some issues, primarily that virtually every starting catcher is a bad baserunner, and Bengie's probably only given up more like 30-50 runs over the average catcher (I'm guessing here, the list only shows the best and worst 5), but it's another note on the long list of reasons not to want Bengie back.
The surprise: Winn is at +90 since 2005, 5th best in baseball. I knew he was decent, but damn, he's virtually tied with Ichiro. Good thing too, since the Giants needed him to offset Bengie and rank 5th in baseball with +77 team baserunning runs.
about 2 years ago
Bhaakon
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I believe that the measurements are in terms of how many extra bases they took (or didn’t) and isn’t converted into runs. So whilst Benjie has obviously been an awful base-runner and lost value because of it, the size of the effect isn’t as large as you’re suggesting.
For reference, Bengie has been pretty consistent over the last five years according to the base-running metric from BP and has totaled around 25 runs below average over the five year period.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
I always
knew that Randy Winn was a very smart baserunner.
by AmorVincitOmnia on Nov 27, 2009 11:18 AM PST reply actions
He’s never been rated.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
Winn is a nerd's kinda player.
Terrible offensive numbers, but fucking fantastic at every other aspect of the game, traditionally ignored by anyone who just looks at avg and ribbbeeezz.
And I mean nerd’s kinda player in the nicest way possible.
Desirous of Matt Holliday and Dan Uggla since 2009.
Well he put up terrible offensive numbers last year but before then he was actually a pretty decent offensive player for a number of years.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
Was...?
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
Man
All of this talk of Winn’s intangibles makes me have impure thoughts about bringing him back for another year.
He was still a 1.7 WAR player last year, and there’s no way his 2010 will be as bad offensively as his 09. His Bill James isn’t awful.
Desirous of Matt Holliday and Dan Uggla since 2009.
I still feel like he’ll have a bounce back year next season. I’d prefer to see him do it on another team though.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
I’ve moved on myself. He’s still going to be one of my favorite players, but he should do his thing for a team with different needs than ours.
I remember a Bill James essay where he made a list of things that would make a player be overrated. It was something like: a (seemingly) clean-cut white guy who’s very good with the press and does one thing very well, but is just okay at everything else. He concluded that by this framework, Steve Garvey simply had to be the most overrated player in history.
I like to think of Winn as the anti-Steve Garvey.
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
Garvey winning in 1974 has to be the worst moment in the history of the MVP. He shouldn’t even have been in the top-15.
I was promised lasagna.
I don’t remember ever seeing Garvey play, but I’m sure he’s the rare player worthy of retroactive hate.
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
You are pretty young. Garvey played every day.
"All I know is right now, you comeback and do you dwell on that? I think you're man enough to take it, you're man enough to chew on it, to spit it out and you learn from it. ... I think winners let it go. I think losers dwell on it and talk about it all week and that screws you up for the next opportunity going forward." - Mike Singletary after the 49ers loss to the Vikings
I really started following baseball in 1985 (when I was 6), and I just flat don’t remember anything about the Padres teams of the mid-eighties.
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
My problem with this
Is that all the numbers say that Fred Lewis is more or less the same player. Project his 2009 numbers out to 600 PA’s, and he’s less valuable (but still good) in the field, a marginally less valuable on the bases, but better at the plate. Now if you want to say that Lewis is visually a terrible defender and throw out his UZR that’s fine, but you can’t use a stat to support your love of Winn and then dismiss them when they support Lewis (not that I’m accusing you of this, just generally).
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Would Lou Brock Have Been A Better Choice?
I think Bench had a great year, especially considering he was a great defensive catcher. Also, Morgan, Schmidt, and Stargell would have been good choices. I was surprised Lou Brock got caught stealing so often, but he broke the record for steals so he came in 2nd in the vote.
Here is the vote: http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_1974.shtml#NLmvp
If Winn signs with the Dodgers, would he no longer be classy?
"All I know is right now, you comeback and do you dwell on that? I think you're man enough to take it, you're man enough to chew on it, to spit it out and you learn from it. ... I think winners let it go. I think losers dwell on it and talk about it all week and that screws you up for the next opportunity going forward." - Mike Singletary after the 49ers loss to the Vikings
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