I’d have no problem with 3 years/$54million.

1) If the Giants submit a low ball offer he might actually win the case. Say if he Giants offer him 7M, an arbitrator just might, just might, say : well, he’s gotta get paid more than 7, so if 23 is the only other option, then 23 it is.

2) If the Giants get scared and submit something like 10-12M, then he definitely has nothing to lose. Who cares? If I lose this case I get 10. If I win I can get 23? WOOHOO.

3) This 100% forces the Giants to go long term, because they cannot even take the chance that they lose this case. If they submit 10+, he’ll take it to arbitration. If they submit less than 10, he actually might win the case. The Giants have no choice but to try to settle for Ryan Howard money (3/54) so maybe a 4/75 deal just to buyout arbitration.

The more I think about it, the more I think it is absolutely brilliant for him to submit 23.

Since pitchers are paid to win, let’s look at it simply. Timmy’s record with the Giants is 40-17 with a 2.9 ERA. Zito was 47-17 with an ERA above 3 at the same point in his career and CC was 53-25 with an ERA around 4. We all hope he follows CC’s footsteps when it comes to realizing potential, but we can’t ignore Zito’s record with the A’s. (As an aside, I was ecstatic when we signed Zito, but I was surprised by the length of the contract… more so than by $18m per season.)

Furthermore, CC had 8 years under his belt when he signed with the Yanks and Zito had 7 when he signed with us. Therefore, I’d offer Tim the average of these 2 contracts discounted for “you’re getting it today vs. having to wait.” (“Discount” in this context means that not all money is guaranteed and the contract is for 6 not 7 years.)

Since CC and Zito are getting an average of $20.5m per year, I’d offer Tim $123m over 6 years as follows: start with $10.5m guaranteed for 2010 and step up the guarantee by $2m a year to reach $20.5m in year 6. That totals $93m guaranteed over 6 years. I’d put the remaining $30m into an incentive pool for 20 win seasons, more CYAs, leading the NL or MLB in this-n-that, playoff and WS wins, etc.

At the end of this contract Timmy will be 31 years old and hopefully well on his way to the HOF. If so, I’d try to re-sign him to a going rate mega-contract because… and this is really important, he will have proven that his arm can handle the rigors of 32-to-35 starts each year over an extended period of time. After all, he knows as well as we do that MLB history is full of pitchers who had a few great seasons and then were never heard from again.

The Giants’ waited, and now it’s going to cost them. They were probably scared by the Noah Lowry contract, where they gave him a long term deal and he got hurt. A complete lack of foresight by Brian Sabean. Good thing we gave him a new deal.

20 years 1 billion dollars sounds fine to me

Lincecum is going to cost more than Health Care

in December of 2012? 8/200?