My All-NL Team
I was just sitting on my couch watching Game 5 tonight. When Chase Utley came to bat in the first inning, I thought, hmm, why don't you hit a homer, Chase? And he did. Crushed. He is easily the most valuable hitter on the Phillies and one of the top three hitters in the NL (it's him with Pujols and Ramirez). Thinking about this got me wondering: if I could construct a 25-man roster made up only of guys who finished the season in the NL, who would I chose. This would be a traditional roster, not an All-Star team, so normal roster rules apply. 25 guys: 12 pitchers, 13 hitters. This team would play from this day forward, so potential matters, as do bench roles. I obviously weighed this past season's performances most heavily. My team, with 2009 WAR, would be:
C: Brain McCann, 4.4
1B: Albert Pujols, 8.4
2B: Chase Utley, 7.7
SS: Hanley Ramirez, 7.3
3B: Ryan Zimmerman, 7.1
RF: Justin Upton, 4.4
CF: Matt Kemp, 5.1
LF: Matt Holliday, 5.6
BN: Yadier Molina, 3.4
BN: Pablo Sandoval, 5.1
BN: Troy Tulowitzki, 5.5
BN: Nyjer Morgan, 4.8
BN: Ryan Braun, 4.7
SP: Tim Lincecum, 8.2
SP: Chris Carpenter, 5.6
SP: Ubaldo Jiminez, 5.7
SP: Cliff Lee, 6.6
SP: Dan Haren, 6.1
RP: Ryan Madson, 1.9
RP: Brian Wilson, 2.4
RP: Jon Broxton, 2.9
RP: Huston Street, 1.5
RP: Rafael Soriano, 2.0
RP: Mike Gonzalez (L), 0.9
RP: Jeremy Affeldt (L), 0.8
Relief pitchers have a certain element of inherent fungibility, so I went with guys that are good, young, and don't pitch in Petco. Gonzalez and Affeldt had the highest WAR among left-handed relievers in the NL.
Hardest calls:
-Not picking Johann Santana. Obviously, the man is very good, but his WAR the past three years has been under 5, after being 7+ the three years before that in Minnesota. I left Wainwright off because I have no idea what his true talent level is (WAR the last three years: 5.7, 2.2, 3.5). Cain has been pretty stable around 4 WAR, so he's not quite one of the elite elite pitchers in the league. Other candidates as SP: Vazquez, Hamels, J Johnson, Kershaw.
-Leaving off Adrian Gonzalez and David Wright. Both of these guys were robbed by the combination of positional strength and lack of roster spots. I was surprised to see how dominant Zimmerman was this year and Pablo's versatility (and superior 2009 stats) allows me to carry two bench OF. Fielder was also a very close call, but I would have picked Gonzalez due to Petco's disastrous effects on left-handed hitters. Tulowitzki had easily the third-best WAR of middle infielders and could probably play 2B or 3B in a pinch. Other candidates as IF: no one.
-The entire OF was hard to call. There just aren't many dominant outfielders in the NL, especially from the left-side. This was definitely where I had to balance potential against production. I mean, Jayson Werth had a higher WAR (4.8) than Justin Upton. And who would have thought that Morgan would have the highest WAR of all NL-only qualifiers in LF? Other candidates as OF: Ibanez, Cameron, Pence.
Anyway, this was just an exercise as some of these players will change teams and/or leagues in the offseason. I was surprised to end up picking four Giants among the league's top 25. Who would have thought that before the 2009 season started? I mean, Brian Wilson had the second-highest WAR among NL relievers and Pablo had the second-highest among third-basemen. I already mentioned Affeldt. Those three hugely exceeded expectations. Combined with Timmy (ridiculous) and Matty (very, very good) and that is a damn fine nucleus. So, who would be on your team? And, while we're at it, does anyone have an AL team?
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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44 comments
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3 Giants is two more Giants than I expected.
#1 threat to America: Pandas
Also, Tim Lincecum
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Nov 2, 2009 8:16 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
actually there's 4 (lincecum, affeldt, wilson, sandoval)
And I think 1 is a little harsh. Definitely at least 2 is reasonable, probably at least 3.
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by raisingcain on Nov 2, 2009 8:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
ok two. i didnt expect Wilson or Affeldt though
#1 threat to America: Pandas
Also, Tim Lincecum
Adopted Father: Tyler Graham
Official McPokeMaster
Registered Velezbian and supporter of Fredemption
by GrahamCrakalaka on Nov 2, 2009 10:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
We all know this but ...
If you take [top three player’s combined WAR or VORP or whatever], and divide it by [total team WAR or VORP or whatever], I imagine that Giants 2009 (with Timmy, Cain, and Panda) would an outlier among 2009 teams, or teams from other recent years too.
And, if, what the hell, the number was [top three players plus top six or seven relievers) for each team, SFN2009 would be even more of an outlier.
That’s one of the biggest things that’s been so frustrating about the Sabean reign. We’ve had some superstar performances, including maybe the best four-year run ever, but the teams (since 2002, at the very least) have been uneven, incomplete, unbalanced, big drop off from leaders to rank-and-file.
by SnowLeopard on Nov 3, 2009 8:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I ran the numbers a couple of weeks ago and while our Big 3 takes over 50% of the total team VORP, we really weren’t such a big outlier – the Giants’ pitching staff combined VORP was too high. Basically, Timmy and Matt were good but the dropoff between them and the rest of the pitchers wasn’t very steep.
What was skewed was Panda’s VORP as a % of the total team hitting VORP, which was 73%. The pitching equivalent was Zach Greinke who was 73% of the Royals’ total team pitching VORP.
If you can get 3:2 on a headline of "Giants Pitcher Assaults General Manager" at some point this year, take it.
by esseffgeez on Nov 3, 2009 9:39 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting
Thank You.
I’d be curious if there was a team in recent memory where (pitching staff + numer one hitter VORP) as (percentage of total VORP) was so high.
But I guess that’s kind of like those convoluted stats, like when some guy comes up to the plate, and they’re like “Him, Stan Musial, and Rickey Henderson are the only guys in MLB history with 125 triples, 1500 runs scored, 50 outfield assists, and two world series rings.” (completely made up example)
by SnowLeopard on Nov 3, 2009 10:39 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hey quick question: What exactly is the difference between VORP and WAR? I know what they stand for, but don’t really know each means
Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son
by lincecuminyourface on Nov 3, 2009 1:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
My second-grade understanding
VORP is measured in more or less arbitrary units. WAR is measured in something tangible: wins. They’re trying to represent the same thing, just in different units.
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When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
by cornball on Nov 3, 2009 4:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I thought VORP measured runs.
That might be based on nothing though.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
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by groug on Nov 3, 2009 5:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sounds like it’s right, which is good enough for me haha. Thanks for the help
Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son
by lincecuminyourface on Nov 3, 2009 10:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
VORP is offense only, for hitters
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
by oldjacket on Nov 4, 2009 8:47 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
wow
I’ve got wood, just for the bench!
by KrazyKrabMeat on Nov 2, 2009 9:00 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
TWS....
nah way too easy.
"All I know is right now, you comeback and do you dwell on that? I think you're man enough to take it, you're man enough to chew on it, to spit it out and you learn from it. ... I think winners let it go. I think losers dwell on it and talk about it all week and that screws you up for the next opportunity going forward." - Mike Singletary after the 49ers loss to the Vikings
by SFGuy on Nov 2, 2009 9:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not bad, but...
I’d take out McCann and put Molina in…bat him fourth because he’s clutch and a good RBI guy.
by Into the Void on Nov 2, 2009 9:19 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
For a second there, I thought it said "Manny Ramirez, ss"
And I was all like, “Uhhhhhh …. wait a minute, Beavus …”
by SnowLeopard on Nov 2, 2009 9:28 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Manley Ramirez
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
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by Natto on Nov 2, 2009 9:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, he was during spring training last year
Now maybe a leeetle bit less
by SnowLeopard on Nov 2, 2009 10:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Nyjer Morgan is surprisingly good
Chris Dominguez: Bringing dingerz back to The Bay (In a while)
SCIENCE
by CB30 on Nov 2, 2009 9:36 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
That was a great trade for both the Pirates and the Nationals this summer. Getting a former top 10 prospect in the Pirates outfield, and the Nationals picking up Nyjer Morgan really balances out a good trade between two bad teams. Gotta wonder why the Giants never called on that one and didnt look for a package with Alderson in the Sanchez deal (trying to make it happen earlier, before Sanchez was hurt).
by gimpsta7 on Nov 2, 2009 11:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Courtesy of a .400 BABIP in the second half
I’m not a believer. I definitely can’t believe he’d be included with the best 25 players in the NL.
Also, I’m not a fan of WAR when 85.05% of the WAR value is from fielding value.
Nobody likes money
by fwoty oz on Nov 2, 2009 11:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Pitching wins ballgames. Defense helps pitching. Hitting does too, but not as directly. Fielding is typically way, way undervalued.
by quincy0191 on Nov 2, 2009 11:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I know, and I’m a fan of using defensive statistics, but I don’t feel they are as accurate as what we can do with hitting, and thus WARs that are completely defensive based are not as accurate as WARs that are based on a more offensive sided player.
Nobody likes money
by fwoty oz on Nov 3, 2009 10:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I picked Morgan for a variety of reasons: he’s left-handed, he can play CF and LF, he’s fast. He would be an awesome 4th or 5th OF.
Joe Martinez: You are cool.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
by cornball on Nov 3, 2009 12:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well i don’t think WAR is completely defensive based they attempt to account for the contribution of offense and defense accurately. Offensive value still dominates WAR at a ratio of around 2:1 (based on the differences in range).
The problem is that defensive metrics are less accurate under small samples and so you can get unexpected results but it’s also worth noting that offensive performance is very variable as well.
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by GiantFan on Nov 4, 2009 6:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Morgan’s WAR is mostly from his defense, even with that crazy BABIP in the second half.
He’s not really a great bet to get back into the 5 WAR neighborhood, more like a 2-3 win guy.
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
by oldjacket on Nov 4, 2009 8:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, that’s why i mentioned the second point. In the specific case of Morgan I don’t think it’s as much a case of WAR over-rating defense so much as the defense being a small sample size and therefore his overall WAR over-rates him.
It’s important to be wary of the defensive numbers when you’re looking at the WAR of a player in a single season (although of course it’s important to be wary of the offensive numbers to a lesser degree as well).
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
by GiantFan on Nov 4, 2009 9:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Does WAR take into account the number of defensive chances a player has over the course of a season? For instance, an infielder with the same number of at bats as an outfielder should have a WAR value more influenced by defense, since infielders generally get more plays, right?
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by capnk on Nov 4, 2009 2:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
also is a San Francisco native and a former pro hockey player (albeit in a junior league).
GIT ON IT GIASNT BRASS
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by i did my job on Nov 3, 2009 12:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
All-AL Team: The New York Yankees. Because if they don’t already own the best player, you can bet they’ll buy him.
Plus, they probably do have about half the roster of the best players in the AL.
by quincy0191 on Nov 3, 2009 12:56 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
From http://twitter.com/kenTremendous
7:56 PM Oct 25th from web
- Congratulations to the AL Champion New York $201,449,189s!
by SnowLeopard on Nov 3, 2009 7:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
LOL Bitter Sawks fan
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
by baetown415 on Nov 3, 2009 9:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hey You Gotta Feel For Boston Fans
They scrape by on barely any payroll, year after year
by SnowLeopard on Nov 3, 2009 10:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I can’t stop thinking about Matt Holliday.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
by rotorueter on Nov 3, 2009 6:43 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
A guy goes into the psychiatrist’s office, and says, “Doc, you gotta help me. I keep having these obsessive, totally all-consuming thought patterns. Argggh! I keep thinking, ’I’m a wigwam, I’m a teepee, I’m a wigwam, I’m a teepee…‘. It’s driving me batty!”
Doc looks him over, leans back, and says, “Well, it’s clear what the issue here is. You’re two tents.”
by SnowLeopard on Nov 3, 2009 7:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
/can’t stop wondering if he’s the only one who keeps reading “All Anal Team”
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Nov 3, 2009 1:03 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Guess so.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Nov 4, 2009 2:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What about Rowand and Renteria?
FREE BUSTER POSEY
by djp4cal on Nov 3, 2009 4:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not enough gritty, gamerific, veteran savvy,
by TGOH on Nov 3, 2009 3:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
My LOL-NL Team
1 C Bengie Molina 2 1B Travis Ishikawa* 3 2B Emmanuel Burriss# 4 SS Edgar Renteria 5 3B Pablo Sandoval# 6 LF Fred Lewis* 7 CF Aaron Rowand 8 RF Randy Winn# 9 IF Juan Uribe 10 RF Nate Schierholtz* 11 UT Eugenio Velez# 12 OF Andres Torres# 13 C Eli Whiteside 14 1B Rich Aurilia 15 1B Ryan Garko 16 2B Freddy Sanchez 17 UT John Bowker* 18 2B Matt Downs 19 MI Kevin Frandsen 20 UT Jesus Guzman 21 IF Ryan Rohlinger 22 C Buster Posey 23 C Steve Holm 24 P Tim Lincecum* 25 P Matt Cain 26 P Barry Zito* 27 P Jonathan Sanchez* 28 P Randy Johnson 29 P Brad Penny 30 P Ryan Sadowski 31 P Joe Martinez* 32 P Bobby Howry* 33 P Justin Miller 34 P Brian Wilson 35 P Madison Bumgarner 36 P Jeremy Affeldt* 37 P Brandon Medders 38 P Osiris Matos 39 P Sergio Romo 40 P Patrick Misch 41 P Waldis Joaquin 42 P Merkin Valdez 43 P Alex Hinshaw* 44 P Dan Runzler*
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by El Person on Nov 4, 2009 9:39 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Half those guys were good to great. It’s the other half that dragged us down.
by quincy0191 on Nov 4, 2009 9:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
ICWUDT
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Nov 4, 2009 9:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

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