Lincecum Arbitration Results Prediction Thread!
by howtheyscored on Nov 19, 2009 1:52 PM PST
194 comments
I know that we're still a ways off from this whole thing, but I thought it would be entertaining to see what everybody is expecting to see happen when the Tim Lincecum show premieres before an arbitration judge near you (unless you're far away, or unless you're assuming that an agreement is reached on an extension). Since now we have what seems to be all of the pertinent information regarding Tim Lincecum... hey, why not?
Arbitration Variables:
- Pro-Money: Two time Cy Young Award winner
- Pro-Money: He's better than you
- Pro-Money: He has a bazillion strikeouts
- Pro-Money: He has the Bengie Molina "Big-Money" seal of approval
- Pro-Money: He's better than everyone you know... by, like, a lot
- Anti-Money: He's opposing your oppressive social regime, lashing out against the system, and fighting the machine; he isn't holding himself to your so-called "social norms" or "state laws;" he believes in a new world, and he's envisioning it right now, as we speak, in vivid, moving color like, man... the colors are all moving... wait, is that LSD? This is what I get for never doing drugs.
- Anti-Money: You're jealous about how much better than you he is
Prediction:
I predict he'll make a zillion dollars in arbitration, and I'll be glad when he does. I expect you'll make serious predictions, though. I also expect you never would have expected the same out of me.
So, you know, I held up my end. Now it's your turn.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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they’re gonna use fangraphs and say he’s worth $30 mil
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
by jponry on Nov 19, 2009 2:08 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I think for first year arbitration, they usually are around 40% of that (I can’t remember exactly, I think it’s 40%). So that would put him at $12 million.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
by marcello on Nov 19, 2009 2:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Isn’t that for position players? Pitchers have always gotten significantly less – there haven’t been any Cabrera’s or Howard’s come through for pitchers yet to really up the money they get. Lincecum will probably be that guy, but honestly, Cabrera being the first one through wasn’t too bad, I think we can handle it…
by Missing Barry on Nov 19, 2009 2:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Most really good pitchers seem to not actually end up going into arbitration, they always seem to sign extensions.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
by jponry on Nov 19, 2009 2:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Extensions for not much money, though…Hamels – 3 years, $20.5M…
by Missing Barry on Nov 19, 2009 2:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
But guaranteed
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Nov 19, 2009 5:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I predict...
Boatloads of monies of Timmy
Adopted brother of Jason Jarvis. To pass the time during the offseason I decided to try my hand at blogging about photography and music.
by j14 on Nov 19, 2009 2:14 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
boats and hos
Bring me the head of Barry Zito! HOLD THAT ORDER two week reprieve to prove himself.
by elGuapo on Nov 20, 2009 1:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
"My friend once told me a story about San Francisco Giants pitcher Tim Lincecum. He said his cousin went out to a bar in San Francisco and saw Lincecum there. He went up to him to give him a handshake.
Lincecum refused. He didn’t want to give him a handshake. He wanted to give him a chest bump."
by Tim LinCyYoung on Dec 1, 2009 8:21 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
I voted (hoped) for 6-10. And a lifetime supply of choco-tacos.
"It's too late now."
by ResDog on Nov 19, 2009 2:17 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
For the record, I did vote 11 – 15.
I just stopped and thought to myself, “he can’t possibly fit into the range that falls below the one that Aaron Rowand is in.”
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Nov 19, 2009 2:20 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I’m going $8-9M. Pretty consistent with my number all offseason, but threw in the -9 now that we know he won the Cy.
by Missing Barry on Nov 19, 2009 2:25 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I’ll guess $10.5 million. I’d say $12 million is the absolute pie-in-the-sky upper limit.
by Evan on Nov 19, 2009 2:26 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Question:
How much is the second Cy award going to cost the Giants? An extra million? Two million? Three million?
by wilriv21 on Nov 19, 2009 2:28 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I really don’t think it will end up having made that big a difference. Tim was gonna get paid no matter what.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
by jponry on Nov 19, 2009 2:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh Yes it will
think if you were his agent
by wilriv21 on Nov 19, 2009 2:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Because his agent had no leverage before.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
by jcb9 on Nov 19, 2009 2:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Since his agent doesn’t actually decide Tim’s salary alone, his opinion isn’t the only deciding factor.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
The first Chester Arthur fanboy ever.
by groug on Nov 19, 2009 2:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I just don't quite see it.
Agent: “CY YOUNG CY YOUNG PAY PAY PAY CY MONEY CASH BAZOOOOOO!”
Giants: “Even if he hadn’t won the award, his accomplishments on the field would have been exactly the same. And it’s his accomplishments on the field that we’re judging here, isn’t it?”
Judge: “You both make compelling points…”
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Nov 19, 2009 2:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
the second Cy allows his agent to present his arbitration request even higher and will cause the Giants to present their arbitration request higher.
by wilriv21 on Nov 19, 2009 2:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And yet his actual accomplishments remain unchanged. I’m not saying it will make no difference, but any arbitration judge with a brain will be able to tell that Tim Lincecum with two Cy Young awards is fairly identical to Tim Lincecum with one Cy Young award.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Nov 19, 2009 2:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I have no idea what the difference will be, but I posted the guidelines for arbitration on our last arbitration conversation. Special awards (which the Cy would count under) are a factor to be used. It will undoubtably cost the Giants money. The arbitration process is kind of messed up in terms of valuing production, and this leigitimately adds to that valuation process. In the view of the arbiters and guidelines set for them, it really does change his accomplishments. It might not make a lot of sense from a rational standpoint, but this process isn’t rational. My best guess is it costs the Giants $1-2M, but that’s not a confident guess.
by Missing Barry on Nov 19, 2009 2:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think the agent’s argument will be he’s won 2 Cy Young’s because as you said above, the actual accomplishments on the field remain unchanged. The argument from the agent will be that “the world” agrees/validated that for two years in a row, he was the best pitcher in baseball.
“It’s not just me saying it, but the rest of the baseball world.” That’s certainly a bigger statement the Giant’s can’t counter.
by velvadp on Nov 19, 2009 4:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think the agent’s argument will be he’s won 2 Cy Young’s
This will be part of the argument, guaranteed. Special awards are part of the guidelines for deciding arbitration.
by Missing Barry on Nov 19, 2009 5:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the 2nd Cy Young allows his agent to drive the conversation toward his off-field value:
- “Tim won the Cy Young and you featured him in nearly all your marketing efforts.”
- “Tim just won a second Cy Young and has established himself as one of the most marketable player/personalities in the game. You know you’re going to feature him even more.”
- “Check your attendance figures for days Tim pitches.”
- “Check with your marketing department for Lincecum jersey sales figures.”
"We're in this thing!" My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman, "Sweet Jesus" Guzman and Jesus H. Guzman.
by Goofus on Nov 23, 2009 2:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think he could also throw in
something like, no pitcher has ever had a better start to his career.
"…this thing which tells time."
by Cody_ransom on Nov 24, 2009 9:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
see Roger Clemens
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Dec 2, 2009 7:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The judge will aware $9.5 million to Tim Lincecum and $2 million to Adam Wainwright, because, dude, you known, if Wainwright had just won that 20th game this season, OMG, 20 WINZ, he woulda won the Cy Young for sure, so he deserves the extra money Tim would have gotten.
/Internet commenter
"Those that drink the Kool-Aid, please leave the room."
by Kitspool on Nov 19, 2009 4:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think it will make a difference, sure, but not a gigantic one.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
by jponry on Nov 19, 2009 2:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The thing is, the award is market validation. It’s not just the stats that say Tim is really good, it’s the world! (or the BBWAA — same thing, of course). And an arbitration award is about market validation. It’s not just how good you are, it’s how good people think you are, which translates to how much they’re willing to pay.
So it probably comes down to the judge, and how much he (she?) believes the award makes the setting of a price less arbitrary.
Disfrute Los Gigantes every day at www.leftymalo.com
by leftymalo on Nov 20, 2009 12:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
5 yr/$83 million extension
GROUGTHINK ALERT
The first Chester Arthur fanboy ever.
by groug on Nov 19, 2009 2:31 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I’d be cool with that.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
by jponry on Nov 19, 2009 2:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
prefer the Giants go to arbitration this year and possibly sign to extension after next season.
by wilriv21 on Nov 19, 2009 2:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
When he’ll cost more?
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
by marcello on Nov 19, 2009 2:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Cost could be more
A bit concerned about his health towards the end of the season. Read a quote where Lincecum said he was a bit tired and the Giants skipped his turn in the rotation. He is a little kid with a huge arm.
by wilriv21 on Nov 19, 2009 3:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
they skipped his turn for back spasms
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
by jponry on Nov 19, 2009 3:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He also wasn’t in AWESOME PHYSICAL SHAPE at the beginning of the year. The flu can screw with your conditioning like no tomorrow.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Nov 19, 2009 3:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Kruk brought up this point today before the press conference.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
by Natto on Nov 19, 2009 3:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
PORCELAIN!
Anyone catch the season review on CSN? Sabes IIRC repeated that they weren’t in any rush to get to a long-term deal, given the challenge with insuring Timmy. He also said something about ownership unfortunately having gone through “this type of thing” with Robb Nen and Noah Lowry. He seemed to imply that the owners had concerns about signing Tim due to questions about his durability.
Not sure if that was the correct interpretation. But he definitely mentioned Nen and Lowry. No Francheeez, though. :)
If you can get 3:2 on a headline of "Giants Pitcher Assaults General Manager" at some point this year, take it.
by esseffgeez on Nov 19, 2009 4:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It’s a legit question with any pitcher and even more legit when you’re talking about the dollars it would take to lock up Timmy.
"We're in this thing!" My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman, "Sweet Jesus" Guzman and Jesus H. Guzman.
by Goofus on Nov 23, 2009 2:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Nah, too much. I did the math a while ago, if you assume an $8M starting point for this season, I think $68M is more in line with what he should get over 5 years. Assuming a $10M starting point would still be more like $78M, and I think there should be a team option included for a 6th year, too.
by Missing Barry on Nov 19, 2009 2:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I was assuming $12 million for this year.
jcb9’s ass must hurt, by the way.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
The first Chester Arthur fanboy ever.
by groug on Nov 19, 2009 2:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
A deal like that? For a player like that? No. Is that succinct enough?
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Nov 19, 2009 2:52 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Smarter people than us have tried.
by quincy0191 on Nov 19, 2009 5:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’d totally do that!
But I’m also totally irrational. Lincecum is one of the few guys where if Ralph “Numbnuts” Barbieri went on the radio and shouted, “GIVE HIM WHATEVER HE WANTS” again, I’d actually agree with him.
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
by JRPhillips on Nov 19, 2009 3:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I say 3/39 broken down with a 5 Mil bonus + 5 Mil salary the first year, 13M the second season and 16M the third with arb. This would allow for the giants to negotiate a 6+ year contract at the time of the 4th Arb year.
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Nov 19, 2009 5:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
But what advantage does that give the Giants? Going year to year, if Lincecum is healthy, it’s reasonable to think that’s about what he’s going to get…so now the Giants are guaranteeing it with no real benefit to them. They can go year to year and negotiate a 6+ year contract at the 4th arb year, too….
by Missing Barry on Nov 19, 2009 5:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think it keeps cost down. 39 might be a little high make it 8/12/14 for a total of 34 and that would benefit both sides.
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Nov 19, 2009 5:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I don’t have a problem with the concept I just thought 39 was the high end of what he’ll realistically get, so we were basically guaranteeing him the high end of the range he should get. $30-34M seems pretty reasonable.
by Missing Barry on Nov 19, 2009 6:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
"My friend once told me a story about San Francisco Giants pitcher Tim Lincecum. He said his cousin went out to a bar in San Francisco and saw Lincecum there. He went up to him to give him a handshake.
Lincecum refused. He didn’t want to give him a handshake. He wanted to give him a chest bump."
by Tim LinCyYoung on Nov 19, 2009 2:45 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Those giraffes look naughty.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
by jcb9 on Nov 19, 2009 2:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
wjackalope needs to stop eating them out.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Nov 19, 2009 3:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I love Penny Arcade.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
by Natto on Nov 19, 2009 3:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
was better when it was rhodesia /is appalling
... null, void, invalid, iniquitous, unjust, damnable, reprobate, inane, empty of meaning and effect for all time
by shanghaijim on Nov 19, 2009 11:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
DUCK TALES!
A WOO OO!
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
by marcello on Nov 19, 2009 2:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
by Natto on Nov 19, 2009 3:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
“When Preston Waters sees an opportunity [to try and bang some chick who’s 15 years older than him], he takes it.”
by quincy0191 on Nov 19, 2009 5:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
2nd Cy Young Raises Timmy's Likely Arbitraiton Award From About $8M To About $11M
The culative effect if this over Timmy’s four years of arbitration is likely to be around $24M as $3M the first year will become $5M the second year, $7M the third year, and $9M the final year.
by giantsrainman on Nov 19, 2009 3:20 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
In Other Words
For the next four years we can now afford one fewer quality starting player then we could before Timmy won his 2nd Cy Young award.
by giantsrainman on Nov 19, 2009 3:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't care
Timmy is the Giants and he deserves the money. I can actually watch games because of him and if he takes the money from Sabean signing another Rowand or Renteria or Dye contract then I’m a happy camper.
by Giant Voodoo on Nov 19, 2009 3:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Instead of Bengie AND Dye we’ll have to settle for just one. :( :( :(
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
by jcb9 on Nov 19, 2009 3:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
For the next four years we can now afford one fewer quality starting player
Sabean still tries to GET those?
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
by JRPhillips on Nov 19, 2009 3:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
For $3 million/year? Name one success.
"The questions are so stupid. I don't believe in rivalries. I don't believe in curses. Wake up the damn Bambino, maybe I'll drill him in the ass."
- Pedro Martinez, asked about the Curse of the Bambino
by achiappanza on Nov 23, 2009 11:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That seems fairly ridiculous.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
by jponry on Nov 19, 2009 3:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh It Is Indeed Ridiculous That This Is How The Arbitration Process Works
But, none the less it is.
by giantsrainman on Nov 19, 2009 3:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t doubt that the CY will make a difference but there doesn’t seem to be any precedent for what you’re claiming here.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
by jponry on Nov 19, 2009 3:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think it will force the Giants to raise their offer slighty, and will make it more likely that Lincecum wins.
Thanks to the binary nature of the process, it could either have virtually no difference, or several million dollars difference.
That being said, I don’t think it will ever reach arbitration, and may cost the Giants 500K-1M in their compromise. I think it will cost them quite a bit more if they agree to a long term deal than if it’s a one-year contract.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
by Bhaakon on Nov 19, 2009 4:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Timmy Will Now Get More Dollars Every Year Of Arbitration Then Ryan Howard Got
Howard’s first of four years of arbitration was $10M Timmy will in my opinion get $11M. Howard signed a three year contract for his last three years of arbitration paying him $15M, $19M, and $20M which i believe included about $6M of discounts ($1M in second year and $5M in third year) for the multiyear risk the Phillies were taking. Thus if you adjust this to year by year it would p[roject to $15M, $20M, $25M and Timmy can now expect to do even better on a year to year basis.
Before this 2nd Cy Young by Timmy i would have projected him on a path under Howard’s of say $8M, $12M, $16M, $20M. Now he looks to be more on a path of $11M, $17M, $23M, $29M. If the Giants are smart they will like the Phillies negoiate a discount off of this for a long term contract of say $11M, $15M, $19M with a optional forth year of $23M or $3M buyout.
by giantsrainman on Nov 19, 2009 4:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Is there any actual reasoning for these numbers?
by Missing Barry on Nov 19, 2009 4:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Which Now Is The Only Comp That Matters
And Two Cy Youngs bets one MVP.
by giantsrainman on Nov 19, 2009 4:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Howard’s not a pitcher, though. Pitchers have never gotten nearly as much as position players. Cole Hamels only got $4.35M as a Super Two. Plus, you’re adding $3M in for a second Cy Young. Why do you think that?
by Missing Barry on Nov 19, 2009 4:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Essentially, you’re saying that second Cy Young alone is worth almost as much as the record contract for a Super Two pitcher…
by Missing Barry on Nov 19, 2009 4:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The 1st Had Already move Timmy Well Above Hamels
The socond moves him above Howard too.
by giantsrainman on Nov 19, 2009 4:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
But it’s still based on precedent. Of course he was going to get more than Hamels, a lot more even, but you’re talking about almost tripling Hamels. When Howard won his case, it was only a ~33% raise on Cabrera’s former record. You’re talking about a 250-300% raise. I’m really just not seeing it. Lincecum’s case is much better than Hamels whereas the other two were more comparable, so I think going above the 33%, even by a decent amount, is reasonable, I just don’t see a reasonable argument to raise the bar that much.
by Missing Barry on Nov 19, 2009 5:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Time Will Tell
But I am pretty confident that I am right.
by giantsrainman on Nov 19, 2009 5:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
How can you possibly be confident you’re right on a negotiation with no real plausible precedent? I just don’t understand how you can have that attitude. I think I have good points, but the truth it, we’re in unknown territory here. None of us know what’s going to happen. I doubt anyone right now (including anyone involved in baseball that would really know this stuff) really has a good idea what’s going to happen.
by Missing Barry on Nov 19, 2009 5:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Simple - The "Unkown Territory" Is All Above Howard's $10M 1st Yr Award
by giantsrainman on Nov 19, 2009 5:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
But that assumes Howard is a relevant precedent, which is something we cannot assume. You can make an argument for it, sure, but so far there’s been a pretty big distinction in pitchers vs. hitters in arbitration, why would it change now?
by Missing Barry on Nov 19, 2009 5:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The issue with Howard is that the club under shot and he over shot just a little less than the club undershoot so he won. I don’t trust the Giants to not make the same mistake
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Nov 19, 2009 5:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m afraid i don’t buy those numbers, it seems highly unrealistic that an arbitrator would award Lincecum $23M or $29M in his final two years. I know inflation will have an effect but i can’t see a pitcher smashing the record salary in an arbitration award.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
by GiantFan on Nov 20, 2009 3:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It’s a good point. Take Ryan Howard as an example – he set the record as a Super Two with a $10M arbitration winning. The next year he submitted $18M, the Phillies $14M…they ended up signing a 3 year deal for $15M, $19M, $20M. Miguel Cabrera signed an 8 year contract instead of going to his second year of arbitration (he was originally a Super Two) that pays him $11.3M, $15M, $20M, $20M, $21M, $21M, $22M, $22M…so it seems like you have a good point that the precedent is once you get up that high the salaries stop increasing so much…
by Missing Barry on Nov 20, 2009 6:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What You Guys Are Forgetting Is That Long Term Contracts Are Discounted
Both of these guys would have gotten alot more year to year but then they would be the ones assuming the financial risk of injury.
by giantsrainman on Nov 20, 2009 11:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not forgetting it at all. I don’t know if that’s true, by the way. With Cabrera, they’re buying out years of his free agency, so the team is getting a benefit besides just a discount for guaranteeing the money early. With Howard, there really shouldn’t be much of a discount – he’s under team control all of those years, it stands to figure the team is going to pay him those three years anyways. Sure, there should be some discount because there’s a non-zero chance of something happening that would prevent them from paying Howard if they were taking it year to year…but I just don’t see the chances of that being large enough to make it a big discount, necessarily. It’s not like they gave Howard the money before he proved he deserved it or anything….
Further, you’re basically assuming the discount is coming from the end of the contract. Why will it be more heavily weighted at the end of the contract compared to the beginning?
by Missing Barry on Nov 20, 2009 11:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Because The Risk Is Higher As Time Marches On
by giantsrainman on Nov 20, 2009 11:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
True point. However, the contract can essentially be structed any way you want – backloaded, front loaded, whatever, it doesn’t have to match up with expected production every year, as long as (conceptually) it’s present value discounted to be equal over the life of the contract…
by Missing Barry on Nov 20, 2009 11:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
When My Estimated $6M Discount Is Applied Doesn't Really Make Much Difference
But, In Howard’s case it does appear to be primarily in the last year as a normal arbitration curve would see more then just a $1M difference between year 3 and year 4.
by giantsrainman on Nov 20, 2009 12:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not comparing his contract with other arbitration cases i’m simply comparing it against baseball salaries in general. I just don’t see how it’s realistic for a player to to be awarded $29M by an arbitrator. That’s considerably more than any pitcher has ever been paid ever, even in free agency and i can’t see an arbitration eligible player breaking that record, especially by such a high margain.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
by GiantFan on Nov 20, 2009 12:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
My Arguement Is That Howard Would Get $25M In His 4th Year If He Had Gone Year to Year
Thus Timmy should project even better as 2 Cys trumps 1 MVP. This is why the Giants need to sign Timmy to a contract covering these 4 years so that they can get this discounted with the last year being hopefully a team option year with a buyout.
by giantsrainman on Nov 20, 2009 12:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt he would have got that much, players generally earn less in arbitration than free agency. Why would an arbitrator then decide to pay Howard more in arbitration than any other player in baseball apart from A-Rod?
Arbitration awards are decided relative to salaries in baseball as a whole. Given that neither of the players would earn that much in free agency why would they be paid more in arbitration?
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
by GiantFan on Nov 20, 2009 12:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Phillies Wouldn't Have Gone Multiyear If Not Discounted
Why would they?
by giantsrainman on Nov 20, 2009 12:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Because they were planning on paying Howard either way since he’s under team control for those years anyways, and it saves them the trouble of dealing with his contract every season, and having to draf him through the arbitration process. It also cancels out the risk they lose in arbitration. I do actually agree with you, I do think there was some discount, I just think it was pretty small, definitely not anything close to $5-7M a year.
by Missing Barry on Nov 20, 2009 12:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No Team Assumes Risk When They Do Not Have To
The only reason to go multiyear on an arbitration player for a team prospective is to get a discount by assuming risk. It would be flat out stupid to just assume the risk without the discount.
by giantsrainman on Nov 20, 2009 1:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Where Did I Ever Claim The Discout Was $5-7M A Year.
I said I thought is was about $6M intotal over all three years which averages just $2M a year. If you want to quibble with how I choose to estimate how the $6M was spread go right ahead but this makes no real difference in the bottom line.
by giantsrainman on Nov 20, 2009 1:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe I misread what you were saying? I read your statement about Howard getting $25M and thought you were talking about that’s how much he would have gotten this year going year to year, instead of the $19M his contract is paying him?
by Missing Barry on Nov 20, 2009 1:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If That Is The Case Then Yes, You Misread Me.
The $25M is in comparision to the $20M his contract calls for him to be paid in 2011. I compared $20M to the $19M his contract calls for him to be paid in 2010 and just accepted the $15M he was paid in 2009 as not being discounted. This again totals a discount of $6M over the three year contract.
by giantsrainman on Nov 20, 2009 2:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, then we just had a miscommunication on that point, then.
by Missing Barry on Nov 20, 2009 5:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You know what this sounds similar to?
“If we had signed Guerrero or [Gary] Sheffield, we would have been without [Jim] Brower, [Scott] Eyre, [Matt] Herges, [Dustin] Hermanson, [Brett] Tomko, [A.J.] Pierzynski, Feliz, [J.T.] Snow, [Jeffrey] Hammonds, [Dustan] Mohr and Tucker — obviously not being able to field a competitive team, especially from an experience standpoint, given our level of spending.”
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Nov 19, 2009 4:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Excuse me, I’ll be weeping gently in the corner, curled into a fetal position and crying for my mommy.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
by jcb9 on Nov 19, 2009 4:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not At All
My prefered senerio still has Timmy a Giant but without his second Cy Young award.
by giantsrainman on Nov 19, 2009 4:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m just saying that you are assuming the Giants would go out and spend money on an impact player with that money. And considering $3 million extra isn’t going to get you Holliday, I would rather the Giants give it to Tim to keep him happy, rather than spend it on a middling free agent.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Nov 19, 2009 4:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Never Said It Cost Us An Elite Player But Rather A Quality Player
Think Nick Johnson for instense.
by giantsrainman on Nov 19, 2009 4:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I hate that comment.
That was the beginning of the end.
"…this thing which tells time."
by Cody_ransom on Nov 24, 2009 9:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's like,
yeah, I want this pile of 11 players who range between “pile of suck” and “über replaceable” who average about 2 million a year in salary, instead of a right handed masher who plays a good RF with a cannon arm, that will cost me about 14 million a year.
"…this thing which tells time."
by Cody_ransom on Nov 24, 2009 9:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What exactly are you basing this on?
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
by jcb9 on Nov 19, 2009 3:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I mean, I believe the last time a pitcher won the Cy Young twice in his pre-free agency period as Roger Clemens in 1986-1987. I don’t see how you could possibly extrapolate specific numbers for how much a second Cy Young would cost.
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
by jcb9 on Nov 19, 2009 3:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
he pulled it out of your ass.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
by jponry on Nov 19, 2009 3:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Already Discussed Elsewhere
To summerize, awards are a major criteria the arbitration process intructs it’s arbitrators to take into account.
by giantsrainman on Nov 19, 2009 3:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Link?
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
by jcb9 on Nov 19, 2009 3:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
My first thought was a bazillion dollars, which at $1 per strikeout, is actually a pretty good deal.
Osiris, Lord of the Dead, and relief pitcher for the San Francisco Giants.
by neurofarm on Nov 19, 2009 3:23 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
I LOL’d.
"Those that drink the Kool-Aid, please leave the room."
by Kitspool on Nov 19, 2009 4:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I clapped, but I guess it would be hard for you to tell. It was nicely turned.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Nov 19, 2009 4:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I voted for extension
I’m not sure it will happen but i’m trying to convince myself that he’ll be a giant for a long time
Grab Some Pine Meat!
by Gobroks on Nov 19, 2009 3:48 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
But if we sign Lincecum to a long term deal, we might not have the money to get {middling infielder}, {non-upgrade}, {middle reliever}, {other bench player}, {fifth starter with terrible stuff}, {other bench player}, {crappy outfielder who shouldn’t be on the roster}…
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
by JRPhillips on Nov 19, 2009 3:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
{backup outfielder who makes the league minimum anyway, so god only knows why we wouldn’t be able to afford him}
"Why not trade Bumgarner for some banger stud?" - sfgiants.com commenter or online porn ad? You be the judge!
Adopted Giant: the probably soon to be ditched but still awesome Fred Lewis
by jcb9 on Nov 19, 2009 4:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, when I try to think positively about the Giants i try to forget about Sabes
He stole my childhood
Grab Some Pine Meat!
by Gobroks on Nov 19, 2009 4:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i’d rather have a shitty team with Timmy than a shitty team without Timmy
"My friend once told me a story about San Francisco Giants pitcher Tim Lincecum. He said his cousin went out to a bar in San Francisco and saw Lincecum there. He went up to him to give him a handshake.
Lincecum refused. He didn’t want to give him a handshake. He wanted to give him a chest bump."
by Tim LinCyYoung on Nov 19, 2009 7:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn’t we all…
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
by JRPhillips on Nov 19, 2009 7:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You can have both
Seeing as how Timmy only plays once every five days.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
by Bhaakon on Nov 19, 2009 7:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
they should move him to shortstop on his off days. it’s not like renteria can do any better
"My friend once told me a story about San Francisco Giants pitcher Tim Lincecum. He said his cousin went out to a bar in San Francisco and saw Lincecum there. He went up to him to give him a handshake.
Lincecum refused. He didn’t want to give him a handshake. He wanted to give him a chest bump."
by Tim LinCyYoung on Nov 19, 2009 9:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Giants, you are the team that gave Zito 18 million per annum
Considering what you thought Zito was worth, in all do accordance with your own financial evaluation, Timmy is awarded 36 million dollars, because he is approx. twice as good as Zito. Half is ERA, double his K’s, double his Wins, Half his losses, Half his walks, 10 MPH better on the fastball, etc. DOUBLE his SALARY!
by bradleybear on Nov 19, 2009 4:16 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Double the fastball power of Zito
96
by Giant Voodoo on Nov 19, 2009 4:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm hoping for an extention
Arbitration can get ugly because the team essentially has to argue why the player is not worth what he thinks he’s worth.
by Fresburg on Nov 19, 2009 4:24 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
COUGH A.J.Pierzynski COUGH
"Those that drink the Kool-Aid, please leave the room."
by Kitspool on Nov 19, 2009 4:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Even if it’s not an extension a lot of times players and teams agree to a 1 year deal in between the two offers they submit without going through the process…
by Missing Barry on Nov 19, 2009 4:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
DOPEHEAD WITH RIDDIKULUS HAIR
... null, void, invalid, iniquitous, unjust, damnable, reprobate, inane, empty of meaning and effect for all time
by shanghaijim on Nov 19, 2009 4:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
…who looks like Patty Smith
"We're in this thing!" My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman, "Sweet Jesus" Guzman and Jesus H. Guzman.
by Goofus on Nov 23, 2009 2:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
“He’s just… HE’S JUST TOO GOOD, OKAY? IT’S NOT NATURAL!”
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
by jponry on Nov 19, 2009 5:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
“You think ‘The Freak’ was just a cute nickname? We’re still the ones paying for the tranquilizers and full-body restraints between starts, so we’re going to need you to take that into account when you decide his award.”
by quincy0191 on Nov 19, 2009 5:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
put him on a leash and keep him in Matt Cain’s hotel room
... null, void, invalid, iniquitous, unjust, damnable, reprobate, inane, empty of meaning and effect for all time
by shanghaijim on Nov 19, 2009 6:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if in their 40s, after leaving baseball and retiring to domestic settings, Tim and Matt will still meet in secret to relive the glory days of their domina(trix)tion of various mounds.
We could make a movie of this
by fantastical on Nov 19, 2009 10:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, Papa did ask him about his special relationship with Cain on Chronicle Live…
/is enjoying this almost as much as he did the whole Estes/Mueller thing
... null, void, invalid, iniquitous, unjust, damnable, reprobate, inane, empty of meaning and effect for all time
by shanghaijim on Nov 19, 2009 11:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn’t worry I’m sure they’ll agree a deal without going to an arbitrator even if it’s just for that year. Who was the last player we had that actually went to a hearing as i can’t recall any?
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
by GiantFan on Nov 20, 2009 3:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That’s a good point. Also, the fact that Tim has preferred to go to arbitration also makes this case less awkward from his side’s point of view. I’ll be surprised if some of the ugliness of the Ryan Howard or Prince Fielder situations come out.
Also, Timmy does have the Giants to thank for making him a super two. Otherwise he’d be making 600k again.
by Fresburg on Nov 20, 2009 9:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This.
Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar
by JakeS on Nov 20, 2009 1:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
2 Cys Vs ! MVP Guarantees It Will Exceed Howand's $10M
by giantsrainman on Nov 20, 2009 11:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
How does it guarantee it? Look, I don’t have a problem with you making that argument, it’s bringing different perspectives on how this is going to turn out, which is good, but I just don’t see how you’re sure that’s true? Where have MVP’s and Cy’s ever been compared? What precedent has ever been set for pitchers and position players to get treated the same in arbitration? There are so many unknowns, I still don’t understand how you can make such definitive statements…
by Missing Barry on Nov 20, 2009 11:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, Guarantee Is Hyperbole.
None the less, I am very confident.
by giantsrainman on Nov 20, 2009 10:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, it certainly is a good argument, one I’m sure Lincecum’s agent will be using…but again, there’s such a lack of precedent here, I don’t even know how you’re confident.
by Missing Barry on Nov 21, 2009 8:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I made a guess. I really have no idea if this is reasonable or not, and no rationale.
I feel kind of stupid saying this after reading your verbal spar with GRM on the Swisher fanpost that started with your irritation that people don’t back up their positions with evidence.
Hopefully the fact that this is a prediction thread keeps me in the clear.
Lethargy
It has me
by dregarx on Nov 20, 2009 10:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Nah, don’t worry about it – on this issue you’re in the clear. The truth is nobody knows what’s going to happen to Lincecum in arb – this is a situation that’s never happened before, there’s no real precedent. It could go any way and I don’t think anyone really knows…so just take your best shot!
by Missing Barry on Nov 21, 2009 8:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
one million dollars
These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others. -Groucho Marx
by RDreamer on Nov 20, 2009 8:24 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Seventeen virgins, with flaxen hair and countenance fair.
The prize of the flock, fattened for slaughter
Forty bushels of yams, more than enough to last past a drought or flood
And $8M
by Grant on Nov 20, 2009 11:01 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Tim’s going to need a lot of weed to eat all that before it goes bad.
by quincy0191 on Nov 20, 2009 3:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Nah, the virgins will stay fresh for awhile.
WHY IS BOCOCK?!
by Lars The Wanderer on Nov 22, 2009 1:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
They probably won’t stay virgins very long though.
Osiris, Lord of the Dead, and relief pitcher for the San Francisco Giants.
by neurofarm on Nov 22, 2009 1:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
not if howie has anything to do with it!
(they’re Geddy Lee virgins)
by sfoakbay on Nov 23, 2009 4:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
…and a partridge in a pear tree!
"We're in this thing!" My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman, "Sweet Jesus" Guzman and Jesus H. Guzman.
by Goofus on Nov 23, 2009 2:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
They gave Edgar $9 million a year
so $9 million it is for Timmy in 2010. I just can’t put a pitcher who’s only involved in less than 20% of the team’s games above a MVP power hitter who is in 150+ games like Ryan Howard as awesome Lincecum has been.
That’s just my opinion but it seems great pitchers are hard to find so that’s why Santana, Sabathia and Zito (LOL) got the megabucks to pitch every 5 days. Lincecum will soon follow, especially if he can get a 3rd straight CY.
Win the inning.
by Scooter Ellis on Nov 20, 2009 11:26 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
The “pitchers don’t matter as much as hitters” argument is so silly. Yes, pitchers pitch in one-fifth of the games, and so impact a smaller number of games. But they have (at least) five times the impact on the games in which they play. So pitchers are just as valuable as hitters, and the dearth of great pitchers compared to the relative plethora of good hitters probably makes them more valuable.
by quincy0191 on Nov 20, 2009 3:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Are you taking into account the fact that pitchers don’t influence the ball once batted except as one of nine fielders? Because unless you assume more than the of pitcher-dependent factors K, BB, HR, and GB/FB I can’t see how you can say that pitchers are more valuable than hitters.
I believe that hitters are slightly more valuable than pitchers.
Lethargy
It has me
by dregarx on Nov 20, 2009 10:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I compiled some facts for this conversation. I’ll give you the facts, you feel free to interpret them how you see fit.
The average team got ~4 more WAR from their hitters than pitching staff. I did some quick and dirty estimates on average hitters vs. average starters, too. For AL teams, I divided their hitting WAR by 9, for NL teams by 8, and got an “average” WAR of 2.28 per batting spot. For the pitching staff, I divided their WAR by 6, 6.5, and 7 to try to get an estimate for what the average starter provides (5 starters + bullpen contributing as much as 1, 1.5 or 2 starters). These produced an average WAR of between .6-.7. So it looks like the average position in the lineup provides more value than the average starting pitcher, to me. On the other hand, if you’re looking at a top flight pitcher vs. batter, Zack Greinke had the highest WAR of anyone. Lincecum and Verlander were in the 8’s, something only 3 position players accomplished. Just eyeballing the position player and pitcher leaderboards it seems that the top position players (if you’re looking at top 10-20) seem to outperform the top pitchers, but again, Lincecum + Greinke + Verlander > Zobrist + Pujols + Mauer, this season…
by Missing Barry on Nov 21, 2009 8:48 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think hitters just have a higher average WAR because there are a ton of good hitters, and not very many good pitchers. There are four pitchers who posted a WAR over 7, and eight hitters who posted a WAR over 7. The discrepancy only increases as you go down the leaderboard; the first page of FanGraphs’ pitcher WAR ends at 3.5, and the first page of FanGraphs’ hitter WAR ends at 4.5, a full win higher. That’s simply because there are more good hitters, not because hitters are more valuable, which would throw off the average.
If you went back a few decades to before they lowered the pitching mound, you’d probably find that the average WAR among pitchers was much higher than that of hitters; again, that’s not because pitchers are a lot more valuable than hitters, but because there are more elite pitchers.
So when it comes to salary, great pitchers are actually more valuable than great hitters, because there are fewer of them, and what’s rare is more expensive. It’s not all that hard to find a great hitter, most teams have at least one, but very few clubs have a top-of-the-line ace, so if you get the chance to get one, you should take it.
by quincy0191 on Nov 21, 2009 1:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
how many people think the case will actually go to arbitration?
I think it’s extremely unlikely that is actually goes to arbitration. Arbitration cases are very much the exception to the rule.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Nov 20, 2009 12:20 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
This One Is Too Important To Both The Union And MLB Not To.
it is going to set the bar and both sides are going to fight hard to have the bar set in their favor.
by giantsrainman on Nov 20, 2009 12:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I Do Believe That a Contract Extension Will Be Negoiated After This Bar Is Set
This is pretty much what Sabean has said he expects as well.
by giantsrainman on Nov 20, 2009 12:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The last MLB wants is to have this go to arbitration, they are going to do all that they can to convince the Giants to sign him. Of course, the Union is going to try to convince him to take it to arbitration. We’ll see which side has more influence on their member, my money is on MLB.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Nov 20, 2009 12:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ultimately, I think Lincecum is the one that decides if he wants to go to arbitration or not. It really comes down to whether he and his team thinks they can win, if they don’t think it’s a good risk to take or just don’t want to go through the process, then they’ll settle.
by Missing Barry on Nov 20, 2009 1:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
your money is against the most powerful players assoc. in sports? You must love the underdog.
by Fresburg on Nov 20, 2009 2:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
$12 Mil 1 year deal, avoiding arbitration.
by seyheystretch on Nov 20, 2009 1:09 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
The Giants have no reason to give him that much without going to arbitration. That would be a 20% raise on the previous record, which was a player victory in arbitration…
by Missing Barry on Nov 20, 2009 1:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You don’t think he could get more than that in arbitration?
by seyheystretch on Nov 20, 2009 1:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not really. I would say $12M is pretty close to the maximum he could possibly get. The previous record for a Super Two pitcher is $4.35M. The previous record for a Super Two position player is $10M, which was a 33% increase over the previous record. So even if Timmy beat it by 33%, as Howard beat Cabrera’s record, that’s $13M…and the Phillies did a poor job in arbitration, which is why he got so much. Between that and there not being a precedent for paying pitchers all that much, I just don’t see how he could get moer than $12. My guess is he gets $8-9M, which basically doubles the previous pitcher record, though it’s just a guess…
by Missing Barry on Nov 20, 2009 1:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m gonna go with 8-9 mil. He’s worth much more than that, but I think he’s gonna end up a little lower than most people think.
"Snow woulda had it!!!"
Brandon Graham for President.
Pickles can definitely be the VP.
by beat_la_25 on Nov 20, 2009 3:24 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Sign Timmy to a LT Deal
Since pitchers are paid to win, let’s look at it simply. Timmy’s record with the Giants is 40-17 with a 2.9 ERA. Zito was 47-17 with an ERA above 3 at the same point in his career and CC was 53-25 with an ERA around 4. We all hope he follows CC’s footsteps when it comes to realizing potential, but we can’t ignore Zito’s record with the A’s. (As an aside, I was ecstatic when we signed Zito, but I was surprised by the length of the contract… more so than by $18m per season.)
Furthermore, CC had 8 years under his belt when he signed with the Yanks and Zito had 7 when he signed with us. Therefore, I’d offer Tim the average of these 2 contracts discounted for "you’re getting it today vs. having to wait." ("Discount" in this context means that not all money is guaranteed and the contract is for 6 not 7 years.)
Since CC and Zito are getting an average of $20.5m per year, I’d offer Tim $123m over 6 years as follows: start with $10.5m guaranteed for 2010 and step up the guarantee by $2m a year to reach $20.5m in year 6. That totals $93m guaranteed over 6 years. I’d put the remaining $30m into an incentive pool for 20 win seasons, more CYAs, leading the NL or MLB in this-n-that, playoff and WS wins, etc.
At the end of this contract Timmy will be 31 years old and hopefully well on his way to the HOF. If so, I’d try to re-sign him to a going rate mega-contract because… and this is really important, he will have proven that his arm can handle the rigors of 32-to-35 starts each year over an extended period of time. After all, he knows as well as we do that MLB history is full of pitchers who had a few great seasons and then were never heard from again.
by karl m on Nov 20, 2009 3:26 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
We don’t have to pay him the market rate, though, because nobody gets the market rate in arbitration…
by Missing Barry on Nov 20, 2009 5:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly!
If we guess that Timmy will get $11M, $17M, $23M, $29M going year to year for his four arbitration years we should be able to discount this total of $80M by at least $10M and make the last year a team option year with a buyout. i am expecting after the dust settles something like $10M, $15M, $20M plus $25M team option
by giantsrainman on Nov 20, 2009 5:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Baseball Needs a Salary Carp
Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below .500
We are at war with Los Angeles. We have always been at war with Los Angeles.
Lowering the Quality of Internet Discourse Since 1985™
by S.F. Giangst on Nov 20, 2009 10:32 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
The could put them into a pond, and however many you catch in 15 minutes is your salary!
by quincy0191 on Nov 21, 2009 1:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ryan Howard went to arb with a RoY and an MVP and won $10 million. Lincecum goes with two CYA; I think $10 million is a floor. Sky is the limit on where he could file – there is no clear precedent.
Keith Law’s response to a question about Lincecum in arb. I’m assuming he knows a lot more about this than me, he did work in the Blue Jays FO after all….so maybe I’m underestimating?
by Missing Barry on Nov 21, 2009 10:04 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I Agree With Keith, $10M Is Indeed The Floor.
by giantsrainman on Nov 21, 2009 3:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Except the difference is he thinks it, you state it as fact…
by Missing Barry on Nov 21, 2009 3:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Rock and a hard place
I think the Giants have placed themselves squarely between a rock and a hard place here.
Do they go year-to-year, risking both heavy salary escalation and alienating Tim for four years from now when he becomes a free agent?
Do they lock him up for four years in an effort to save money — but still have him eligible for free agency at his first opportunity despite paying out a lot of money for four years as it would be?
Do they pay him an eighth of a billion over six years — still allowing him to become a free agent at age 31 and still in his prime, while still guaranteeing him money for longer than most consider prudent for a pitcher?
Do they really go out on a limb and give him an eight-year contract — putting themselves out on an even longer limb than they went with the fading but exceptionally healthy Barry Zito?
My suggestion would be a guarantee of four to six years with options to take the contract to a full decade (through the 2019 season).
Put in heavy bonuses for Cy Young and MVP awards, lesser ones for All-Star selections.
Put in innings vesting that essentially extends the guaranteed period out an extra year until it reaches the full decade and/or significantly increases the buyout dollars.
What I’m suggesting is that the Giants and Tim’s agent work jointly to forge the most creative contract in baseball history — one that both protects Tim’s amazing future earning potential and yet limits the Giants’ financial obligation to a manageable number of years.
Such a contract wouldn’t be easy — but it could benefit both Tim and the Giants with salary certainty and an effort to make Tim a Giants through his 13th season.
Barring a truly unreasonable (at least in terms of baseball arbitration history) proposed arbitration demand from Tim’s agent, I don’t see the Giants fighting Tim in arbitration. Barring the unreasonable, they realize they don’t have much of an argument.
Clearly it would be in the Giants’ best interest to try to work out something long, long-term. But they also need some sort of guarantee that they won’t be committed to paying an injured player over a full decade.
I believe with good faith and good work, the two camps can come to a mutually-beneficial deal. It would be good for us fans, as well.
It could help that the Giants will have their park mortgage paid off in 2017, which could free up big bucks on the back end of the contract. As a fan, can you imagine the Giants’ losing Lincecum in four years?
by sharksrog on Nov 30, 2009 4:57 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
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