2010 CHONE projections for the Giants hitters
The horrorrrrrr
Free agent projections here
over 2 years ago
baetown415
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I’d be ecstatic to get that out of Bowker. Posey’s line isn’t sexy, but it’d still be a solid upgrade.
Velez sucks.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
236/321/420 for Cameron. Wow! A 22 point OBP drop for Cameron his OBP in 6 years. Harsh, Dude.
Who’s brain did you bring me?
Brain SabeanOranother.
Probably the "aging curve" hit is what knocked him down.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
Garko seems to get hit a lot. Horwitz is back.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 15, 2009 3:59 PM PST reply actions
Phelps!
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 15, 2009 4:00 PM PST up reply actions
Sorry, forgot
But hat-tip to Jeff from Lookout Landing for bringing these to my attention.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
I have done no research to support this, but I feel they’re undervaluing Sandoval somewhat. This year was no fluke.
Also, let’s sign Holliday.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Nov 15, 2009 4:01 PM PST reply actions
I would guess
that projection systems regress away much of his batting average. Ichiro also.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
Josh Phelps Better The Travis Ishikawa And Kevin Frandsen Better Then Freddy Sancehz?
This is more then enough for me to loss all faith in the credibility of these projections as these expectations are just ridiculous.
Yawn
Can you bring some non-results-based analysis to why you’ve lost all faith in the credibility of these projections?
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
So You're Going To Lose Your Confidence In One Of The Best Projection Systems Around
Just because two of the projections don’t really gel with you?
BTW, what’s so ridiculous about Phelps > Ishikawa?
(I think the Frandsen projection is optimistic b/c his 2007 is weighted too heavily [since Frandsen doesn’t have 2008 numbers to include], but I’m not going to tear down the system just because Mr. Smith doesn’t go through the detailed history of what happened to every player in the past 3-5 years).
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
No, It Has Been A Gradual Process
I don’t even think these two specific examples can really even be called the last straws for me. I see them rather as just two more straws added to the already very large pile of failure of these projection systems.
by giantsrainman on Nov 15, 2009 5:28 PM PST up reply actions
Care to pull from that very large pile of failure?
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
My Bitch Is That They Under Estimate The Best And Over Estimate The Worst
To me for projections to have any real value these are the ones that have to be the most accurate. I could care less how accurate they are with the vast majority of players that are right around average. I could list specific players but I just don’t see the value of doing so.
by giantsrainman on Nov 15, 2009 6:37 PM PST up reply actions
So According To You...
These projections systems should not try to give true-talent levels (which is pretty much how players perform going forward), but rather try to predict career-high performances and outliers of the suboptimal strain? You want them to predict which players suddenly have a change in batting approach or how a player coming back from injury will do better/worse than projected or which batters have a random crazy fluctuation in BABIP? Or what?
BTW, most players in the majors are right around (~10 runs) average.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
Not At All
It is the true talent level I think these they miss. They under estimate the true talent level of the elite players and overestimate the true talent level of fringe players.
by giantsrainman on Nov 15, 2009 7:03 PM PST up reply actions
Where's your proof of this?
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
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It Is An Observation Over Many Years Of Looking At Actual Results Vs Projections
by giantsrainman on Nov 15, 2009 8:09 PM PST up reply actions
P.S.
The experiment I am about to run this year with my projections will be the first of many such experiments needed to verify this observation.
by giantsrainman on Nov 15, 2009 8:11 PM PST up reply actions
Umm
Could it be more like… a couple of unexpected hot/cold months occurred, thus increasing/decreasing year (x)’s performance but not really changing the true talent level of the player?
(just wondering, but how many years have you been looking at projections and comparing them to actual results?)
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
My opinion is that’s just a misperception on your end. In general, the highest producing players will experience some regression, simply because having a season that good means you likely outperformed your “true talent”. Pretty much anyone that underperformed their “true talent” will not be in that elite class for that season, so all you’re left with is the overperformers. What that means is more often than not those elite players will experience a drop in production – so if you see projection systems putting them down for a drop…it’s because most times they’re right. Sure, a couple guys like Pujols will be underestimated, because most players in his tier had to have above talent seasons to be that good (whereas Pujols really is that good), but in the end, the projections systems will still be right more often than not. The same concept is true of the other end of the spectrum.
You’ll notice the couple of cases that may consistently outperform their projections because their true talent really is that good, but you won’t take note of all the other cases where they were right in projecting a drop in performance. That’s just human nature, we’re subject to biases like that.
by Missing Barry on Nov 15, 2009 8:02 PM PST up reply actions
We Shall See.
This is why I intend to start testing my observation.
by giantsrainman on Nov 15, 2009 8:12 PM PST up reply actions
He's actually right for 2 reasons.
1) Projection systems never project the best performances or the worst ones, because a lot of luck is built into outlier performances. They are by definition outliers. I remember Tom Tango ran down the results of his Marcel projections- He never guessed the highest or the lowest home run numbers for the top 10 home run hitters correctly, but when you added up the 10 projected amounts, and compared them to the 10 actual amounts, the projections were dead on.
2) Regression to the mean is built in. You regress a player to both his and the league average mean, and so the best players are projected for less and the worst players are projected for more, because without enough data you can never know a “true” talent level. And the amount of data required is staggering.
Does this mean Chone is a bad system? Absolutely not. It’s probably the best system. They ALL build in regression to the mean, and pretty much always undershoot Albert Pujols. But what if Albert loses a year? Then they will have overshot him significantly. The end result however, is that over a multi year period they would have been right on for him.
/rant
Proud father of Barry Zito. As long as he keeps throwing strikes, that is.
you are confusing
results with true talent level.
Even career numbers aren’t true talent level. If you have 10 players who have a 10 year career and true talent level (career numbers) of .300/.400/.500. – some of them will hit better than this, some worse.
Even a 10 or 20 year career is not an infinite sample.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
I love how our intention is to best find and describe a theoretical “true talent level”, even though we know it is impossible to know a players “true talent level”. :)
(What can I say, I do economic research for a living…)
by Missing Barry on Nov 16, 2009 1:11 PM PST up reply actions
So you don’t understand the methodology behind it, but because they tell you something you don’t agree with, it must be wrong. Interesting. Seeing as how you are all-knowing about future production, would you care to give us your projections on record for the Giants players right now, and after the season, we can compare how they do against other projection systems?
by Missing Barry on Nov 15, 2009 4:58 PM PST up reply actions
Oh, I Understand The Methodology, I Just Am Find It To Not Be Very Useful.
Lasty year I used the projection systems to more or less set the boundries for my projections. This yeart I intend to just ignore them. I will be working on my own projections for the Giants. I am not looking to develop a system. I find the limitation of having to find a specific formula to apply the same way to all players is the limitation that causes these systems to be so wrong so often. What I intend to do is use the info available to me from both past performance and scouting outlook points of view to draw my own conclusions on each individual player. This is what I think MLB teams do. You can look for a Fanpost from me on this sometime in early December and I will upgrade it as the Giants pick up new players.
by giantsrainman on Nov 15, 2009 5:25 PM PST up reply actions
Bitchin.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 15, 2009 5:37 PM PST up reply actions
Ha, honestly wasn’t expecting all that. If I see it, I’ll check it out. Projections are generally pretty good – though there is some room to adjust for ones that look off or strange. Discussions over at The Book from some of the different people that run some of the projections system have been along these lines…
As for the specifics of the projections you object to, I think most people would find an actual discussion on it more worthwhile than just saying the expectations are ridiculous…
by Missing Barry on Nov 15, 2009 5:46 PM PST up reply actions
You see, here's the thing:
Sean Smith’s projections are not just formulated, computer-generated projections. He runs the numbers, sure, but then he does go through and adjust certain players up and down (though obviously not all of them). He’s even said that he tweaks his system year-to-year.
And btw, I don’t see how you can understand the methodology behind his projections, since he’s never published his explanation on how he does these.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
Methology And Details Are Two Different Things
by giantsrainman on Nov 15, 2009 6:32 PM PST up reply actions
And Again, He's NEVER Published His Methodology
So unless you’re just talking about his general “calculate, regress, massage” process, you don’t have any ground on which to stand.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
Without The Specifics We Do Indeed Still Know The Basic Methodlogy
I very much doubt if there is any judgement used in this methodology and that is what I see as it’s major fault. You can claim some judgement is applied all you want but I see no evidence that your claim is correct.
by giantsrainman on Nov 15, 2009 8:17 PM PST up reply actions
P.S.
I am not talking about the judgement that is applied as the details of the methodology is fine tuned from year to year. I am talking about judgement (ie scouting) of the talents of the players.
by giantsrainman on Nov 15, 2009 8:19 PM PST up reply actions
His own admission
In my case, the only thing that really stays the same is the name CHONE and the fact that I run it. I’m always changing things here and there, and will again this year once I get all my data lined up.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
Exact What I Said
He uses his judgement to adjust the equation from season to season. Nowhere does he say he uses his judgement to adjust a projection for any player away from that which his equations come up with.
by giantsrainman on Nov 15, 2009 8:37 PM PST up reply actions
Hmm
I guess I might be misinterpreting what he meant. I’ll ask him and report back later.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
BTW
I’m still wondering why you think an offensive projection of Phelps > Ishikawa is so off…
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
Because Every MLB Team Seems To Think So As Well
If they thought othersie he would not be getting just MiLB deals with no MLB playing time.
by giantsrainman on Nov 15, 2009 9:27 PM PST up reply actions
Maybe They Don't Find Much Value In a Decent-Hitting, Poor-Fielding First Baseman?
Players like Josh Phelps are a dime a dozen. That’s why many of them don’t get more than minor league flier contracts.
Also, I don’t like to delve into counterfactuals, but it’s highly likely that Phelps would’ve either broken camp with the Giants in 2009 or been called up instead of Guzman if he hadn’t been out for so much of the year with a sore shoulder and nerve issue in his shoulder.
And you still don’t really address the issue. I’m talking about offense only.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
Phelps Has Had Lots Of Healthy Years But Very Few With MLB Callups
If these teams really thought he could hit at the MLB level as well as the projections expected in these years he would have gotten the chance to do so. They didn’t and he didn’t and yet the projections continue to expect just normal aging from him and do not recognize what these teams have recognized. Phelps is jsut AAAA on offense as well as defense.
by giantsrainman on Nov 15, 2009 10:53 PM PST up reply actions
He'd hardly be the first minor league slugger to be misjudged
Jack Cust is probably the most recent case, the all time example being Edgar Martinez.
The injuries make it irrelevant for Phelps, though, and even the projections think Garko is better. He’s better off in the AL, where the DH and lesser need for PHs who can actually play defense would allow him more opportunity.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Umm
Go check your favorite site
Aside from 2000 and 2001 (I won’t count those as callups, even though he technically was on the team), Phelps has had at least an extended cup of coffee in the major leagues every season except for 2006 (where Chris Shelton and Marcus Thames had the 1B and DH slots; that said, Phelps posted a +.900 OPS and .399 wOBA in AAA that season) and 2009 (when he was injured for most of the season). He probably wouldn’t have had a cup of tea in 2008 had Pujols been healthy the whole season, but then again, no one’s displacing Pujols at first.
Despite having seasons of being “only” around average with the bat, in his total MLB time, Phelps has posted a (Fangraphs) wOBA of .352.
And can you please stop getting away from my original issue? On what grounds do you charge Ishikawa as a better hitter (offense only) than Phelps?
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
If these teams really thought he could hit at the MLB level as well as the projections expected in these years he would have gotten the chance to do so. They didn’t
I really don’t think that’s ths issue, here. The issue is that Phelps plays 1B, where his production just isn’t that good. Given that he’s not known for his glove, playing the position with the highest offensive threshhold….it’s just that Phelps isn’t that good of a player overall, even if he hits at his projections. Most teams have 1B who are better than he is, and the ones that don’t have plenty of other options. That’s what causes the lack of interest. The only reason Phelps projections look so good is because they’re next to the rest of the Giants players, the reality is, they’re not that good for a 1B.
by Missing Barry on Nov 16, 2009 6:51 AM PST up reply actions
Finally I can get that Nestor Rojas projection I've been crazy
Also, I think 286/326/458 seems pretty overoptimistic for Schierholtz. I might be overreacting to a bad two months, but I just don’t think he’s going to hit for that much average, have that good of an ISO OPB, or hit for that much power.
/talking out of jcb9’s ass
GROUGTHINK ALERT
The first Chester Arthur fanboy ever.
Damn it
That title was supposed to say “Finally I can get that Nestor Rojas projection I’ve been craving”
GROUGTHINK ALERT
The first Chester Arthur fanboy ever.
He drives you crazy.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
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Off the top of my head reactions:
That Freddy Sanchez projection isn’t very nice.
I had totally forgot that we picked up Joe Borchard last season.
Eli Whiteside (.226/.268/.350) SAVES RUNS WITH HIS DEFENSE
I love the Bowker projection.
Might Only True If You Buy These Projections.
I think buying these projections could be foolish. I sure will not be using them in making my fantasy drafts.
by giantsrainman on Nov 15, 2009 5:32 PM PST up reply actions
I’ll also note that Chone has a strong projection track record…
by Missing Barry on Nov 15, 2009 5:48 PM PST up reply actions
Only Compared To Other Systems
Again, I have come to the conclusion that the very nature of systems is what holds them back from better projections.
by giantsrainman on Nov 15, 2009 6:16 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah It Does. It Means Scouting Not Just Numbers Are Needed.
by giantsrainman on Nov 15, 2009 6:38 PM PST up reply actions
I can’t wait until we, as baseball fans, have the resources to scout every player in baseball so we can make an educated guess as to what their numbers will be next year.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
This Is Why I Am Only Going To Do This For The Giants
by giantsrainman on Nov 15, 2009 7:54 PM PST up reply actions
P.S.
I make no claims that I will be able to out predict the Giants or for that matter any other MLB team. Clearly they have resources that I can not hope to match. That said, I do claim that will be able to out predict the projection systems on the players I identify as among the very best or the very worst. I also make no claims with regards to the vast majority of players that are truely right around average.
by giantsrainman on Nov 15, 2009 8:06 PM PST up reply actions
Would you be willing to wager on that?
Not money, but perhaps something like….. a pink pony for the loser’s avatar for the next year?
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
Ok
So how exactly should we do this?
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
And If You're Only Doing This For The Giants, How Exactly Is It Going to Go?
Since a lot of the hitters are averageish (within 10 runs of average).
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
You will on average get beat anyway.
Even if you only do horrible and elite players, you will not win.
Well it depends on how many players he tries to do. If you only do a few, you can definitely beat the system. As I said earlier, it’s been acknowledged by some of the guys who do these forecasting systems that they can pick out some guys who the forecasts just seem dead wrong about and be right more times than not. One of them did this for 2009 – before the season he adjusted the forecasts for something like 10-20 players just because they seemed wrong, and his forecasts accuracy with those changes improved over the original model…
The more players you try to pick out, though, the less likely you are to outperform the forecasting systems…
by Missing Barry on Nov 15, 2009 9:43 PM PST up reply actions
Eww, you would want robot scouts
your scouts on the side….
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
Bowker and Schierholtz getting some love. Torres drops back to normal.
So much for the Renteria injury rebound.
Per CHONE, Nick Johnson would become our best hitter next year.
You wish you were named Frederick Deshaun...
But
Also per CHONE, Ryan Garko will be just about as good as Nick Johnson.
He’s also projected to be cheaper, younger, and less injury prone.
Give -peace- Ryan Garko a chance.
Garko: +8 R/150
Johnson: +18 R/150
That’s already +1 win by offense. Johnson’s defense was down by UZR last season, but I’d take him over Garko in 2010 defensively.
It doesn't really matter
If we get 120 games of Johnson + 40 games of Garko (and 2 for Ishikawa! err, but anyway), that’s still better than 150 games of Garko and 12 of Ishikawa or whatever.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
I’m not sure what you mean. It’s Johnson’s numbers extrapolated out to 150 games, same for Garko. If you worried about Johnson not playing 150 games, then swap in Garko. But he’s got higher upside, imo.
Do you think the'd keep Garko after signing Johnson?
Granted, it’s probably a good idea, but they’ve been cheap in the past.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Well, they re-signed FSanchez to save face for the trade
I could see them doing the same for Garko, though Sabean has also shown that he doesn’t always work in patterns (aside from signing veteran centerfielders and drafting pitching).
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
I don't thnk they signed Sanchez purely, or even mostly, to "save face".
We’ve also seen the Giants quickly sour on players based on poor performance in a small sample size.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
True
I felt like “saving face” was a big part of the reasoning in re-signing Sanchez, but I don’t really know Sabean’s full reasoning. It could’ve just been a conservative move on his part.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
Garko: 0.276 0.354 0.446
Johnson: 0.264 0.395 0.407
I don’t know why the R/150 is so very different on two lines that are so similar.
Give -peace- Ryan Garko a chance.
Umm
41 points of OBP > 39 points of slugging
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
True enough, I guess.
But I’ll go back to issues of durability and age.
I don’t want anyone other than Garko or Panda (if we trade for uggla or something) playing 1b. Johnson is too big of a gamble to pay more than what we’d pay for Garko, who, as of now, is our second best hitter.
Give -peace- Ryan Garko a chance.
well
either there are errors or R/150 is park adjusted. Check out Agon.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
it is...but see below.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
VeLOLez
And he’ll be starting next year… Speed never slumps, sure. Can’t slump if you already suck.
Also, if we can get that from Nate and Bowker, that’d be awesome. That is if they both start, which will never happen.
Insanity is just a state of mind.
If Josh Phelps is one of the highest on here
Not too sure how much legitimacy are behind these projections.
FREE BUSTER POSEY
You’d be hard pressed to find predictions of any kind with a better track record than Chone…
Also, Phelps has a career .352 wOBA at the MLB level (or .273/.343/.472 if you prefer slash stats). That’s nothing special out of a 31 year old journeyman 1B, but compared to the crappy hitters the Giants seem to be littered with, that’s a pretty good track record. Are you really that surprised by his projection?
by Missing Barry on Nov 15, 2009 10:49 PM PST up reply actions
That’s true. I guess the Sandoval line they threw out there put them on my bad side. I mean, I don’t really understand how a guy like the Panda can drop in production that much unless he gets hurt.
FREE BUSTER POSEY
Other than Bill James, projections will almost always regress players to the mean.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
and that’s still a great projection for him.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
yes
he’s projected the be the 3rd most valuable hitter in the NL west (not counting free agents) after Manny and AGonz.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
(toward the mean)
/awaits ban
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
To An Excessive Level In My Judgement
This inability to see elite talent when it is right in front of their noses is my number one complaint with all projection systems except maybe Bill James’ which has a different problem in that it expects more then it should of those wothout elite talent.
by giantsrainman on Nov 16, 2009 12:25 AM PST up reply actions
Honestly, I think in some cases there just isn’t enough data for the systems to seperate who’s real from who isn’t (because the data they do have looks the same), so of course it just goes with the average for the whole group. I do believe more and better data is becoming available, though, things like hit f/x, pitch f/x, field f/x, that once people start figuring out what they can do with it and what aspects of it are useful, they’ll be able to improve their models even more and better seperate the real talents from the fake ones. Could take a while for this to start happening, though…
It also wouldn’t be too difficult to add some scouting information into the model to improve it’s performance (assuming the scouting information is high enough quality to more than offset the loss in predictive power from adding additional variables), the only problem is I can’t see that as a viable solution for anyone that’s going to make that data available to the public – it seems to me it means they’d have to have their own scouts, and that seems difficult/pointless for a seperate organization or person who isn’t actually involved in the decisionmaking of one or more of the teams…
by Missing Barry on Nov 16, 2009 7:04 AM PST up reply actions
Most projection systems aren't going to like players who depend disproportionately on batting average
Particularly ones with only a season and a month of track record.
And, sadly, they’ll be right in most cases.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Yeah, this is the important point. We all love Sandoval, he certainly looks like an elite talent at the plate, and he seems to have the drive that takes a good player and makes him great, but the truth is…guys with similar profiles/track records to Sandoval do regress more often than not. The fan in me refuses to believe his .353 BABIP is sustainable, because I want to believe Sandoval really is that special talent and you can’t tell me otherwise, but if I let the rational part of me join in the discussion, I’m sure I’d point out how few players can sustain that kind of production….
by Missing Barry on Nov 16, 2009 6:55 AM PST up reply actions
The fan in me refuses to believe his .353 BABIP is unsustainable
by Missing Barry on Nov 16, 2009 6:56 AM PST up reply actions
A lot more discussion in one night than I expected
I figured there would be like 20 comments…
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
How does R150 work?
Posey: 0.263/0.340/0.389 for a R150 of -5
FLew: 0.258/0.341/0.401 for a R150 of -7
Horwitz: 0.267/0.340/0.381 for a R150 of -8
Why does Posey have the higher R150? Is there a positional adjustment?
Osiris, Lord of the Dead, and relief pitcher for the San Francisco Giants.
FREDEMPTION 2009
ya, wierd
I would shoot them an email. The R150s are park adjusted (stat lines NOT) but unless he has them projected for Fresno?
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
according to these projections
we SHOULD sign Jermaine Dye! Well, maybe… I wonder if his defense is better than Bowker’s?
Not only is Frandsen projected to out hit Sanchez, but so is Matt Downs!
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
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