Do you want Tim to win the Cy Young?
by GiantPain on Nov 10, 2009 2:38 PM PST
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PrintOn one hand, we all know he deserves it. He won last year an outperformed himself throughout this season, and almost every metric that isn't OMG WINZ says Tim was the best in the league.
But on the issue of dollars and cents, it might be better if he didn't win. He's due for a raise, and having back to back Cys going into arb could make him a lot more expensive for the Giants to keep, and potentially hinder their abilities to get the people they want to get.
So the question is simple; are you rooting for Tim to get the Cy Young?
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Not that I give a crap about awards, but I don’t root against my own guys.
Brian Sabean strongly encourages you to disregard the drudgery of your employment responsibilities and join him in the consumption of spirituous libations.
This
Joe Martinez: You are cool.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
I sort of doubt he’s going to win it (unless Wainwright and Carpenter split the vote enough), but I’m rooting for him. What do I care if winning two Cy Youngs in a row makes him more expensive? When it comes to negotiating, the Giants FO had better be working on how to best answer the following question from Lincecum’s agent: “Please explain why my client doesn’t deserve to get paid as much as Barry Zito.”
"Those that drink the Kool-Aid, please leave the room."
Really because I think they need to be working on how best to answer this question from Lincecum’s agent: “My client is three times more productive a pitcher than Barry Zito is. Please explain why my client doesn’t deserve to get paid thrice as much as Barry Zito.”
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
He Isn;t Going To Win This Year. Thank God. It Would Hurt The Giants If He Did.
2 Cy Young’s would raise his arbitration cost above the award Howard got. All Giants fans should be grateful that this is not liikely to happen.
If he wins does he get another puppy?
You can't solve your problems with the same level of thinking that created the problems - Albert Einstein to Brian Sabean
Not Timmy’s fault so don’t hold it against him. Fun fact pointed out by The Sporting News:
Thirty-nine times during the season, Giants starters Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain pitched at least six innings and allowed two or fewer earned runs. They got a loss or no-decision in 15 of those starts.
If you can get 3:2 on a headline of "Giants Pitcher Assaults General Manager" at some point this year, take it.
Ask me again in February 2010
If had been asked this question in February I would have said “Yes” however it is now November in a season where the Giants did not make the playoffs. I do not see any good coming from a Cy Young award this season yet can see it becoming a budget issue come December/January.
Lincecum went nearly an entire month in August without getting a win (he got one on like the 2nd and then another one on like the 28th). It was depressing, especially since he should’ve gotten something like six. 20-game winner+his stats=automatic Cy Young.
Yeah, that was a brutal stretch. Both Timmy and Matt were stuck at 12 wins for what seemed forever.
I broke down the TSN stat – Timmy was an ND/loser in 8 of his 20 6+IP, 2 or less ER games. Cain was 7 of 19. That means 12 of Timmy’s 15 wins and Cain’s 12 of 14 came when they held the opposing team to 2 runs or less.
As for their other wins, Timmy won 3 more games giving up 3 runs in each and Cain won 1 where he allowed 4 runs and another where the game was called after 5 innings and he’d given up a run. In all but the last game, the guys pitched 6 innings or more.
Hardly breaking news but that margin of error for a starting pitcher is ridiculous.
If you can get 3:2 on a headline of "Giants Pitcher Assaults General Manager" at some point this year, take it.
is it really going to be that big of a difference in his payday if he gets 2 Cy Youngs instead of just 1, with a runner-up? everyone knows how dominant he is, including him and his agent. any price they demand, regardless of how many media awards he has won, will be very high.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Nov 10, 2009 3:51 PM PST up reply actions
can you provide some sort of example or reasoning for this?
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Nov 10, 2009 4:20 PM PST up reply actions
Not enough caps.
Joe Martinez: You are cool.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
he has no use for that sort of stuff
by FluLikeSymptoms on Nov 10, 2009 4:23 PM PST up reply actions
Do You Really Believe An Arbitration Panel Will Not Put An Unreasonable Value On Two Consecutive Cy Youngs?
These deciders could care less about what we here care about they look at the traditional stats and awards and give the awards the highest value. To think outwise is just foolish.
by giantsrainman on Nov 10, 2009 4:46 PM PST up reply actions
They have a very specific set of guidelines for what can be used in arbitration.
In deciding to award the higher or lower salary, the panel may consider the following criteria:
(1) the player’s contribution to the club in terms of performance and leadership;
(2) the club’s record and its attendance;
(3) any and all of the player’s "special accomplishments," including All-Star game appearances, awards won, and postseason performance;
(4) the salaries of comparable players in the player’s service-time class and, for players with less than five years of service, the class one year ahead of him.
The parties may not refer to team finances, previous offers made during negotiations, comments from the press or salaries in other sports or occupations.
For number 4, there’s only one player that’s really relevant at all. Cole Hamels. For number 1, they basically use the same kinds of stats that go into Elias free agent ratings, if I’m not mistaken. Number 2 is set. So Number 3 is the biggie, and yes, I do think two Cy’s fit under that and will be a HUGE argument in arbitration.
by Missing Barry on Nov 10, 2009 8:35 PM PST up reply actions
thanks
proof and reasoning is a nice argument
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Nov 11, 2009 7:57 AM PST up reply actions
it don't really give a shit if it costs money
he deserves it. he is a san francisco giant. you root for the giants to win.
Money Is Not The Issue In and Of It's Self. The Issue Is Not Having This Money To Buy What Is Needed To Complement Timmy.
by giantsrainman on Nov 10, 2009 3:57 PM PST up reply actions
I Would Bet It Is The Difference Between Under $8M and over $11M
And when you role this out across the next three arbitration years as well it will add up to somewhere around $25M extra cost to the Giants. to me at least this is something I do not want to see happen as I do not want Timmy to get almost free agent dollars in his arbitration years thus taking away resourced needed to add better players to compliment him.
by giantsrainman on Nov 10, 2009 4:51 PM PST up reply actions
The closest is Ryan Howard
Who won his MVP going into his first arbitration year in 2008 and got 10M. Miguel Cabrera, OTOH, entered his first arbitration year in 2007 with at least equal performance and no award, and only got 7.4M.
But Lincecum already has a Cy, and we’re talking about his second. Since two Cy’s before arbitration would be unprecedented, there’s precedent for GRM to cite to support his educated guess (or for you to cite to refute him, for that matter).
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Cabrera and Howard isn’t a fair comparison. Cabrera set a record in arbitration, and Howard came a year later. Cabrera’s record was actually the groundwork for Howard’s win – as it says in the guidelines I posted above, you can use a player in the class above you as a benchmark, so while Cabrera didn’t have a big money benchmark in front of him, Howard got to use Cabrera’s arbitration win for that. I believe they both got similar % raises over the previous record.
by Missing Barry on Nov 10, 2009 8:40 PM PST up reply actions
Everything I've read from interviews with arbiters state that the guidlines are just that, guidlines.
They’re not hard rules, and the arbiters often consider other factors. This includes recent FA signings and shifts in the market, particularly in cases where there are few or no comparable players.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
I thought it was a much more rigid process, but I could be wrong, I don’t know that much about it other than what I linked to…
I have read enough about that specific case though that I know Cabrera’s contract was a big deal at the time and was a big factor in Howard’s win. The MVP might be, too, I dunno, I just know Cabrera (and the raise he got over the previous record) was definitely used as a baseline for Howard.
by Missing Barry on Nov 10, 2009 8:55 PM PST up reply actions
I wish I could cite some sources, but it's just stuff I've read over th years.
But it makes sense. If the Arbiters could only consider the salaries of players with comparable service time, then arbitration awards wouldn’t go up over time.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Well that’s not the only criteria, and as you said, there aren’t always going to be good comparisons, especially since they can only use players with one more year of service time. They definitely use stats/awards and such for a large portion of the arguments…
by Missing Barry on Nov 10, 2009 9:09 PM PST up reply actions
he is a san francisco giant. you root for the giants to win.
Well this is the dilemma. Do we root for Lincecum, one of our favorite players on our favorite team? Or do we root for our team, the Giants? Make no mistake about it, the more money Tim gets, the more negatively affected the Giants are.
by Missing Barry on Nov 10, 2009 8:38 PM PST up reply actions
I wouldn’t say that’s necessarily true. Let’s say Lincecum gets an extra $2 million on top of what he would have gotten without the second Cy Young, which I think is a pretty big bonus (especially considering going from one to two Cy Youngs isn’t nearly as huge as going from zero to one). That means the Giants have to sell an additional $2 million worth of merchandise and game tickets to make up for paying Tim that bonus. I think that given the massive attendance spike at his games (and accompanying food/drink/merchandise sales) and the “Tim Lincecum Cy Young Award” promotions, caps, shirts, posters, pennants, etc. (sold outside the park) the Giants can easily get that money back. I also think they’ve already gotten most of the bonus Tim is going to get to his 2010 salary from his 2008 Cy Young back in revenue dollars.
I’d say worst case, it’s a wash, best case, the Giants make money from Timmy getting the award. But that’s just an opinion.
What you Are Missing Is The Cumlative Effect
First a second Cy Young will most likely be worht an extr $3M+ (not jsut $2M) in the first year. But, this is just the beginning. The effect of starting off in the first of four years of arbitration will likely be an extra $24M+ accross all four years of arbitration.
by giantsrainman on Nov 10, 2009 8:55 PM PST up reply actions
are you trying to say that his ass is not a legitimate source?
by FluLikeSymptoms on Nov 10, 2009 10:19 PM PST up reply actions
It Is Simple Observation Of The Past And Logic
You pretty much have to be blind ot one or the other not to come tho the same conclusion.
by giantsrainman on Nov 10, 2009 10:41 PM PST up reply actions
Admittedly, I don’t have that much of a historical perspective. But I’m not convinced that a Cy Young award, while prestigious, is going to be that much of a factor. Tim’s ERA, strikeouts, and wins will be huge factors. The awards he gets will be factors, but I’d say $2M is pushing it. And I agree with dmunk, I don’t think there’s really any way to conclusively say that 2 Cy Youngs are worth X amount of dollars because no one’s ever done what Tim’s doing. I believe this is the first time anyone’s gone into arbitration with a single Cy Young, much less two. So there’s really no way to know what kind of impact that will have. Your guess is as good as mine.
I don’t see that at all. First,whatever he gets this year will have a spillover effect in the rest of his arbitration years (essentially each year is a raise of some amount of the previous year, so a higher first year will lead to higher salaries down the road). Second, while a Lincecum Cy Young campaign might be effective, the real question is will it be more effective than a Lincecum-based campaign (or any other campaign that would have been in its place) to the tune of $2M? We all know Lincecum’s good, we can already call him Cy Young Winner Tim Lincecum….I just don’t see a second one making a big difference there. Plus, correct me if I’m wrong, but merchandise revenue goes to revenue sharing? Isn’t it something like all merchandise not sold in the stadium is included in revenue sharing? $2M in extra revenue is a lot to simply come up with….
by Missing Barry on Nov 10, 2009 8:59 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, we can call him Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum, but Multiple Cy Young winner and Reigning Cy Young winner carry a lot more impact. Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens were both multiple Cy Young award winners, but their third and fourth and fifth weren’t as significant as their first, and they likely drew more the year after they one won than two or three years after. Being the reigning CYA winner is huge; Timmy didn’t have a promo that said, “Ace” or “Star” pitcher, it was always “Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum and the Giants up against Team X”. I think it’s a pretty huge impact.
But like I said in response to GRM, there’s really no way to know how it’s going to affect Tim’s arb salary because we’re breaking new ground here. And I suppose you could do a complicated analysis and figure out about how much the Cy Young is worth, but I have not the time, expertise, or available information to do so. Let’s see how much he gets before we start asking whether he should win the CYA or not.
The Cy Young Decision Will Happen before Timmy's contract is ever settled.
In fact it will be announced pretty damm soon.
by giantsrainman on Nov 11, 2009 12:18 AM PST up reply actions
Oh. Well then let’s see if he wins the CYA before we decide how much of a factor it’s going to be.
Do you know when, exactly? I’d like some time to get appropriately apprehensive.
November 19th
Please note the mlb.com does not see Tiimy as one of it’s two favorites (the dual Cardinal aces) but rather just a lessor contender.
by giantsrainman on Nov 11, 2009 1:58 AM PST up reply actions
i totally understand that
lincecum getting another cy will cost the giants money, but he simply deserves it. i just can’t root against someone who deserves something to not get it, even if its someone from another team
I definitely want him to win it, but...
Tim: 15-7, 2.48 ERA, 261 Ks, 68 BB, 176 ERA+
Carp: 17-4, 2.24 ERA, 144Ks, 38 BB, 183 ERA+
Wain: 19-8, 2.63 ERA, 212 Ks, 66 BB, 157 ERA+
If you’re going to nitpick, it looks like Tim really has the only advantage in strikeouts. But that’s far from “almost every metric”.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
I was speaking more in sabermetric terms
Tim is far and away the K/9 leader, for instance.
I myself am not a stats guru, but I’m sure there are people on this board who could make a better case than me for a repeat, with stats other than ERA.
Why do San Francisco teams insist on having terrible offenses? Frank Gore and Pablo Sandoval can't do it all.
Carpenter had about 40 innings less, though. I think that’ll probably weigh into the decision.
The very bad man traded my son...So now I'd like you all to meet my new son, Ryan "Aaron" Garko...Dammit it's just not the same!
Yes
But I won’t be too broken up when he doesn’t.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
The first Chester Arthur fanboy ever.
this, i guess
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
I parrot Lars
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
You have pretty good english for a parrot.
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Nov 10, 2009 10:16 PM PST up reply actions
I parrot Lars
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Nov 11, 2009 8:02 AM PST up reply actions
/feeds Howie a cracker
WHY IS BOCOCK?!
by Lars The Wanderer on Nov 11, 2009 8:44 AM PST up reply actions
Was that "really" a cracker?
Plotting the ultimate demise of Gore51 (never met him, I dunno he could be swell) so as to adopt Kyle Nicholson.
"I don’t know much about sabre-stats but there’s nothing better than white tea and poptarts first thing in the morning" - tk
by Whiteteaandpoptarts on Nov 11, 2009 10:13 AM PST up reply actions
It was a cracker laced with LSD
WHY IS BOCOCK?!
by Lars The Wanderer on Nov 11, 2009 10:22 AM PST up reply actions
0_o
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Nov 11, 2009 10:53 AM PST up reply actions
/pokes rainbow colored stick through the bars of Howie’s cage
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Nov 11, 2009 11:02 AM PST up reply actions
GLORY
... null, void, invalid, iniquitous, unjust, damnable, reprobate, inane, empty of meaning and effect for all time
looking at the current voting results,
it appears we have 7 intruders in our midst.
Six shameful people so far. At least nearly everyone who votes understands that you don’t root against your players.
by positiveuphemism on Nov 10, 2009 6:36 PM PST reply actions
As a “no” voter, all I’ll say is the rationale for it is putting the team ahead of the individual. That’s why I voted no.
by Missing Barry on Nov 10, 2009 8:42 PM PST up reply actions
I voted no because I thought someone else deserved it.
"The part of the roster where most of the money is spent, though, is on free agents and guys acquired through trade — guys Sabean did play a big role in acquiring. And they are not good. When you get 2/5 of a pitching rotation for free, you would think you could do better with $76 million than to field the league’s worst offense."
-Taliesin September, 2009
Go Timmy!
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 10, 2009 7:01 PM PST reply actions
Where’s the don’t care option?
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Nov 10, 2009 10:17 PM PST reply actions
meh head
#1 threat to America: Pandas
Also, Tim Lincecum
Adopted Father: Tyler Graham
Official McPokeMaster
Registered Velezbian and supporter of Fredemption
by GrahamCrakalaka on Nov 10, 2009 10:25 PM PST up reply actions
DONT JUDGE ME!!
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Nov 11, 2009 7:57 AM PST up reply actions
I think it’s funny that some think that the Cy Young voting is logical and it goes to the best guy.
As much as I’d like him to win it, these chances are slim-to-none, even though he was the best pitcher in the league.
He should win just for us to see what happens.
Who want front-row seats to the arbitration hearings?
You wish you were named Frederick Deshaun...
So…
An unprecedented achievement would call for an unprecedented reward. Could he crack 11 mil? I know 10 mil has been the high end projection, but if he essentially goes 2/2 on Cy Youngs…
"…this thing which tells time."
Anyone who votes no is a puppy killer. There I said it.
"Being a McCoven is like being a member of the Green party. It’s powerlessness is part of the appeal." - oldjacket
I have a very strong urge to make a bad joke about Chinese food.
Why do you tempt me so, internet Jebus?!
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Make it
I DARE you.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
I double dare you!
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Nov 12, 2009 10:09 PM PST up reply actions
I double DOG dare you!
Wait
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
So the "high" strikeout (against SPEEDING!) thing won't adversely affect the voting?
He’s been a very visually emotional young man this year(FrankenStudios is closed for the night or I’d trot out the same ol’)…do you think he’s coveting it? And how does he react if he loses it?
Maybe something akin to my less – than – brilliant (but generally OK) ex wife who, upon once hearing that a company she sought employment with tested hair, stated that she would probably fail the test…and did I want to get high?
/ponders the awesomeness of getting high…with Tim Lincecum!
"I don’t know why people feel the need to come up with reasons 'why' for everything..." - Missing Barry
by victor frankenstein on Nov 13, 2009 12:15 AM PST reply actions
no restraint.
"I don’t know why people feel the need to come up with reasons 'why' for everything..." - Missing Barry
by victor frankenstein on Nov 13, 2009 12:21 AM PST up reply actions 3 recs
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