Draft Retrospective

Yeah I know it's early for draft thoughts but McCC has turned me into a draftjunkie.   Besides, the time to start thinking about the next draft is as soon as the current draft is over.

Of course, much can change between now and June 2010.  We could lose our 1st round pick (it better be for a GOOD reason, Sabes!) or we could pick in another position instead of, or in addition to, #24 (Grant surmised at #19... Tigers to sign Molina?).  

But for the purposes of this retrospective I will look at the 24th pick of the First Round across the history of the draft.  In any given year the 23rd pick could have turned out to be a total washout and the 25th pick could have been the superstar of the next decade, but since we appear to have the 24th pick in 2010 I will focus on that pick alone.  I won't go into a detailed statistical analysis of the success rate of 24th picks... I'll leave that to obsessivegiantscompulsive if Martin so chooses to tackle that.  Instead I will look more informally at the players selected 24th so we can hopefully get an idea of what to expect and set our expectations accordingly.  I did not go to as great a depth as to look up every player's career stats, but I have been a baseball fan for a good many years and have a pretty good idea as to who did or did not have a decent major league career.

Bear in mind that the draft itself and the art and craft of scouting has changed a lot since the advent of the draft in 1965.  In the early days the success of a draft pick was more dependent upon the work and diligence of the scout, the bird dog travelling the back roads to uncover that hidden gem of a prospect that no one else had sniffed.  Today, prospects and information on prospects are much more accessible to everyone, and there is a great deal of statistical, physical and psychological analysis performed.   There are also more teams, more prospects, and significantly more money involved.   The concept of "signability" is a relatively recent one, and while teams in the past may have shied away from players they absolutely knew they could never sign, teams that pick later in the draft nowadays seem to have a better chance to obtain a major talent than in the early days of the draft, just based on the names I have turned up while doing this retrospective.

So, looking back on the draft by decade, we see:

60's
The draft started in 1965 and the first round only went up to 20 picks.  From 1965-68 the 24th picks were actually in the 2nd round,  and were:  '65 Ken Lampard, HS OF, Astros;  '66 Joe McCoullough HS IF, Red Sox; '67 Daniel Cary HS P, Mets; '68 Ken Johnson, HS SS, Yanks.  To my recollection, none of these players became accomplished major leaguers.  It wasn't until 1969 that the first round included 24 picks, and that year the 24th pick, a HS 1B selected by the Padres, was noteworthy to Giants fans not because he ever accomplished much in his career, but for that one magical spring training with the Giants in the early 70's.  Anyone remember Randy Elliot?

70's

This decade was also filled with 24th picks who never made their mark in the majors.  The only two who had a notable degree of success were Rich Dauer of the Orioles, a college 3B selected in '74 and Steve Nicosia, a starting C the Pirates took out of HS in '73.

80's

The 80's were nearly as barren as the previous decades, although I am proud to point out that the most accomplished 24th pick of the decade was none other than Terry Mulholland, whom the Giants selected out of college in '84.  The Brewers picked Alex Fernandez out of HS in '89 but he did not sign.  Chris Donnels and Jim Lindeman had rather brief and marginally successful careers.

90's

The bookend picks of the 90's were probably the most noteworthy of the entire decade.  In 1990 the then Expos took HS OF Rondell White who became a good player, if not the superstar he initially appeared he would become.  In '99 the Giants selected LSU righthander Kurt Ainsworth, who had flashes of success, but whose career was derailed by injuries.  Just as a note, the year before that the Giants picked at #25 and selected Nate Bump, RHP from Penn St.  The only other player who had even a little success was Brian Buchanan, a 1B selected out of college by the Yanks in '94, the same year the Giants selected Dante Powell at #22.

2000's

This decade has fared better for the players selected #24.  Perhaps it is just luck of the draw or perhaps the art and science of drafting has improved.  Or signability has raised it's sizeable head.  Who knows?  In any case, the noteworthy picks are from 2002, Joe Blanton, out of UK to the A's (the Giants took Matt Cain with the next pick...YEAHHH!);  2003, Chad Billingsley out of HS to the Dodgers (the Giants had taken David Aardsma at #22). In 2001 Macay McBride, HS LHP, went to the Braves, and had a brief but marginally useful career in middle relief (the Giants had taken Brad Hennessey at #21 that year) and Landon Powell, C taken out of college by the A's in 2004, has been a useful back up.  The players taken in the latter half of the decade are still plying their trade in the minors and could still make their mark in the majors.

So what does all this tell us?

Hopefully something at least.  And that is that the overall chances of the Giants getting a successful major leaguer out of the 24th pick are not that good.  While I would rather keep that pick than see the Giants lose it by throwing wads of cash at a washed up veteran as they are wont to do, I think the Giants need to make like the Tigers, Yanks and BoSox and go hard after the signability pick who has dropped to them.  Or focus on pitching since they have had pretty good success selecting arms when picking in the low 20's.  And while I have fretted about the Giants losing their first round pick by signing a Type A free agent, having done this retrospective and getting an idea of what it is the Giants may actually be losing, I won't feel so bad if the Giants give up their pick by making a smart signing.  Repeat, SMART signing.