Wrap-up (OF edition)
by oldjacket on Oct 5, 2009 10:56 AM PDT
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These are some thoughts on the Giant's various players in multiple parts. This week, the outfield.
UZR/150 is the amunt of runs a player would save on defense, relative to average at their position over 150 game period..
SGE is my guess at the Subjective Groupthink Evaluation of a players defense.
BB% K% BB/K
8.00% 17.30% 0.51
AVG OBP SLG PA
0.262 0.318 0.353 597
UZR/150: 16.4
SGE: Very Good
597 PAs of THAT. If only that were the only reason why the Giants sucked so much this year. Randy Winn used to hit just enough for his defense to make him a good player. This year, he fell apart against lefties, went out of the strike zone more, and just flat seemed to be unable to hit a major league fastball.
Winn's defense is still good for a corner, and he's got all the Barry Bonds techniques of not letting his weak arm hurt him much. At this point, though, there are a lot of guys at AAA that give you good corner defense and not hit major league pitching.
BB% K% BB/K
9.50% 29.60% 0.36
AVG OBP SLG PA
0.270 0.343 0.533 170
UZR/150: 28.9
SGE: Excellant
I'm pretty sure that UZR, you and I all agree that Andres Torres was the best defensive outfielder the Giants used this year. His range is so good, that he's a threat to run into other players on routine flyaballs to either corner. If the Giants ever want to give the "Inner-outifield/outer-outfield" defense a try, they'll just need two of Andres Torres.
He also had a nice season with the bat. Torres is a hard guy to figure out. He has crazy platoon splits (.667 OPS vs righties, 1.116 vs. lefties), strikes out a ton and didn't start hitting in the minors until he turned 29. He's at least a quality 4th outfielder on glovework alone.
BB% K% BB/K
5.30% 20.40% 0.28
AVG OBP SLG PA
0.267 0.302 0.400 308
UZR/150: 8.9
SGE: Very Good
Schierholtz was starting to put togethera pretty nice season, then got hurt, then disappeared offensively and from the lineup card. The overall line is ugly and no one is really sure if he'll ever get on base or hit for power. Defensively, Nate had a few adventures learning the pinball machine that is rightfield at At&T, but all in all looked solid. It would appear that his reputation hasn't caught up with his arm yet. Dude had 10 asissts this year.
BB% K% BB/K
10.90% 28.50% 0.43
AVG OBP SLG PA
0.258 0.348 0.390 336
UZR/150: 8.4
SGE: [Picture of Nuclear Explosion]
One of Fred Lewis's problems is that he seems like he should be a much better player than he is. What he is isn't great, but it isn't terrible either. It just falls short of what someone with his tools should be. Just about everything in his defensive game belies poor technique coupled with good athleticism.His routes are weird, his angles poor, his hands awful. The real argument between the two Lewis factions is whether or not you think that his superior footspeed allows him to make more than enough outs to make up for the all the drops.
Offensively he continues with the theme of doing things that are easy to see poorly, and things that are tough to see well. He strikes out a ton, doesn't hit for power, but was one of the better OBP men for the Giants. That, of course is damning him with faint praise.
BB% K% BB/K
5.30% 19.30% 0.29
AVG OBP SLG PA
0.267 0.308 0.400 307
UZR/150: 11.4 (in the outfield)
SGE: Suspicious
Last game of the season's shenanigans aside, Velez's outfield defense has progressed to the point where it's now his bat that's the weakest part of his game (and proud we all are of that). His second base play is still awful, and I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone take more time on the double play pivot. Wilriv used to claim that CF was going to be his eventual destination, and that no longer seems crazy to me. Still, fans can be forgiven if they expect the Baron to return at any moment.
Offensively, even his second half hot streak was pretty bleh (.277/.321/.426).
BB% K% BB/K
5.60% 26.90% 0.22
AVG OBP SLG PA
0.194 0.247 0.373 73
UZR:29.1
SGE: Unsure
Bowker reworked his approach in Fresno, but didn't really get a chance to show if he could apply it in the majors, and seemed like the same (bad) hitter as last year when he did play. UZR gets pretty wonky with as small a sample size as Bowker got in the outfield. I'm pretty certain that he's the worst defensive outfielder trotted out by the Giants this year, but that's not really saying much.
BB% K% BB/K
5.70% 25.10% 0.24
AVG OBP SLG PA
0.261 0.319 0.419 546
UZR/150:-.3
SGE: Good
Actually worse at the plate this year than he was last year, he put up Renteria numbers in the second half. He can not hit a low breaking ball and unfailingly swings at every one. Rowand is still good enough to play center field, when healthy and he showed that this year. He still makes poor throwing decisions, and would be better if he knew his limitations. The strikeouts and the salary combine to make him one of the most infuriating players to watch on the current squad.
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Nice post!
And you are brave taking on the worst part of the team first.
WHY IS BOCOCK?!
by Lars The Wanderer on Oct 5, 2009 10:59 AM PDT reply actions
i said this before this post got deleted a couple times but
Seriously, if Eugenio Velez is handed a place in the starting OF and/or the leadoff spot next season, we’re going to be in trouble.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
Did you know that if a post gets deleted, all the drafts get deleted too?
Good thing I do everything in notepad, then cut and paste.
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
I had no clue, it looked like a double post! I’m really, really sorry about that.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
It wasn’t that much trouble.
Does it mean anything that I have a warning now?
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
No, it was just so I could let you know what happened. I mean, obviously it’s meant to be used to give out warnings to people who are misbehaving, but it’s also pretty useful as a way for mods to just contact individual blog-members.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
Nah
Sometimes we use it to just message people. They don’t build up or anything.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
/warns Natto ten times.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Oct 5, 2009 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions
/forgets to click the warn button, accidentally banning Natto.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Oct 5, 2009 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions
/freaks the hell out. E-mails Natto, Grant and SBNation overlords in a fit of panic.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Oct 5, 2009 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions
/waits anxiously.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Oct 5, 2009 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions
/notices “unban” button. unbans Natto.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Oct 5, 2009 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions
/warns Natto just to apologize and explain the situation again.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Oct 5, 2009 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions
Actually I’m at his house eating Pop Tarts.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
You’re eating my Pop Tarts!??? I thought I warned you about what would happen if you did that again!
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Oct 6, 2009 8:15 AM PDT up reply actions
It’s so crazy that Velez starting next year seems like a foregone conclusion at this point
We're all basically Pedro Feliz.
True
But if Franchez comes back at least he’ll play LF, not 2B. He’s less of a defensive liability in the outfield and we won’t have to cringe every time a GIDP ball gets anywhere near him.
All it takes is just three easy words: bad. baseball. player.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Oct 5, 2009 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Not just crazy. Stupid, too! Unbelievably stupid.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Oct 5, 2009 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions
It’s Eugenio Velez / Andres Torres being handed a starting OF and/or leadoff spot next season. This is undoubtedly the case. Also, they’ll be batting 1-2, while only occasionally platooning.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Oct 5, 2009 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions
this makes me sad
unless they’re taking over for rowand. i could live with that.
I wish Sabean and Bochy would embrace the crazy concept that the job of the leadoff hitter is to get on base. .258/.312/.404 this year.
Brian Sabean figures that if he buys enough bottles, one of them is bound to have lightning in it.
BOWKER HAD HIS CHANCE
The outfield D was a big part in why our pitching was so awesome. I have a feeling it will regress next year.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
Especially when Jermaine Dye becomes our everyday RF.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
:((((((((((((((((((((((
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
You forgot the most important part of Torres’s game. Being Bochy’s go-to bunting guy!
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
second most productive hitter on the team this year!
NEEDS TO BUNT MOAR
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
SPEED TURNS BUNTS INTO DOUBLES! NOW THAT’S POWER! SPEED-POWER!
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Oct 5, 2009 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Bunts….
I don’t like them but I don’t hate them to the degree some others here do. One of their best uses is to avoid the GiDP or barring that ensure the runner gets moved 90 feet. So why the Beegees does the slowest guys that almost lead the team in GiDP not being told to bunt more often and the slappy speedy guy is?
/ resumes sticking pins into an oragne on a toothpick…
That’s it! Katie bar the door for this 79 win team is star crossed! And I am loving it.
Don’t ask me. I’m the guy who hates bunts in virtually any non-pitcher-hitting, non-ninth-inning-playing-for-one-run situation.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Oct 6, 2009 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions
In one way that makes a good person to ask. When your hitters are not good enough to hit the ball proper to the situation ( i.e. Rowand, Molinia,Edgar ) do you still think it is such a bad idea?
I get the opposition to them as a Rule of Thumb (and it is unfortunate in many way Big Head rolled out the bunt in yesterday’s press conference) but just how like a batting pitcher does a position player have to be and how scarce both runs and power in the lineup have to before it becomes a better idea then fielder choice, K or GiDP away?
That’s it! Katie bar the door for this 79 win team is star crossed! And I am loving it.
If your hitters are not good enough to get hits, then they should not be playing at all.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
The first Chester Arthur fanboy ever.
But then who would Big Head write into the line up?
Seriously though we are at that point and have been for 3+ years. Renertria or Burris-Ochoa-Bocock 2.0? Also some of our worst offenders ( offense..offend… chortle) are the very people we are never sat under the current regime.
That’s it! Katie bar the door for this 79 win team is star crossed! And I am loving it.
I like this post
I don’t like our OF situation.
by AndYourBirdCanSing on Oct 5, 2009 11:40 AM PDT reply actions
I actually think we have the pieces for a decent OF and would be in even better shape if we could add a real impact bat to one of the corners.
The trouble is that the most likely OF for next year (Velez/Torres, Rowand, over-30 FA bat) is not a decent OF.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
That’s pretty much the exact scenario I’m worried about. Bork.
by AndYourBirdCanSing on Oct 5, 2009 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions
I think that if
we had to actually decent (average?) OFs, then we’d have the pieces for a decent 3rd OF and a couple backups. The guys that you don’t mention as likely aren’t very good either. I mean Schierholtz can’t manage an OBP within 10 points of Winn or Velez (who are both terrible), and Lewis, while the best of the bunch, is not likely to put up an .800 OPS next year. Maybe Bowker can top that… but then he gives it back fielding.
I mean, we would all hate Jermaine Dye signing – but he (somehow) wouldn’t even make the team worse! (except by being more expensive)
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
I hate the idea of a Dye like acquisition because then we get more of their only being one OF spot for a young player(s) to compete for. That and those young player(s) would also be competing with whatever bounce back or unproven veteran they front office can lay their hands on. If the Last 2 seasons have shown us anything it is in a Bochy Giants team it is only a DL trip makes a starting veteran lose playing time. And NONE of these outfielders are worthy of that much promised playing time on a team that thinks it is going to win 85+ games.
That’s it! Katie bar the door for this 79 win team is star crossed! And I am loving it.
the point is that the odds of one of those players actually being better than Dye is small. Let alone two of them.
Well, actually, I take that back. Dye is probably done.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
Am I the only one who initially thought of BVCE when I read “the baron” in the part on Velez?
Proud adoptive daddy for the Big Unit, who is currently teaching Madison Bumgarner the art of being intimidating.
i did too
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
She is probably out getting more cereal.
WHY IS BOCOCK?!
by Lars The Wanderer on Oct 5, 2009 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Yum.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Oct 5, 2009 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Here’s something to think about. I took Andres Torres’s MLEs (the conservative, Minor League Splits version) for the last three years and added them together with his actual performance this year, giving a three-year line of .245/.306/.402.
That yields a wOBA around .310, which of course is pretty bad. But if he is a +10 run center fielder, which seems plausible, that’s enough to get him up to almost average — and better than what Rowand has given us the last two years.
Torres is pretty intriguing to me. He really looks (and the data backs him up) to be a solid defender in CF. I just don’t know how to project his bat. He was a great pick-up.
Yeah, his history is just too weird to project him with any confidence, except we know that he strikes out a ton, so he’s never going to have much of a batting average.
so he’s never going to have much of a batting average.
“Never say never” – Romeo Void
OK , flay me if you will , but why can’t an earnest ballplayer and a knowledgeable batting coach get together to shore up deficiencies? Is this idea too whacked out and unreal? Or is Lansford there to work with the rooks exclusively?
Ya know...ignorance really IS bliss.
Well - I do , anyway.
by victor frankenstein on Oct 6, 2009 2:04 AM PDT up reply actions
Never is a little strong, but strikeouts are hard to make go away and high K guys have a harder time putting together good BAs.
If you want to be Ichiro, kids, be fast and make contact.
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
Great Post OJ
But I do have a question. Excuse my UZR ignorance, but I figured that even though CF is the hardest position in the OF that his UZR/150 would be much better than -.3 . Or is this pretty typical for CF’s?
Giant Dirtbags: John Bowker, Steve Hammond. MIA List: Todd Jennings, Brian Anderson
Jeremy Affeldt induces DP's
by Giant among Angels on Oct 5, 2009 7:10 PM PDT reply actions
It’s basically saying that he’s an average CF. Of course, having average CF defense makes you one of the best 10-15 outfielders in baseball.
For defensive stats, personally, I weight them about half with what I see, depending on how often I see a guy, or what knowledgeable baseball people say about him.
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
Thanks.
I see that Frankling Gutierez is first in UZR/150 in MLB by quite a bit. Is he that ridiculously good, or does this fall into that gray area with UZR being somewhat subjective?
I figured BJ Upton to be first but Gutierrez is over him 19.2 to 9.8.
Giant Dirtbags: John Bowker, Steve Hammond. MIA List: Todd Jennings, Brian Anderson
Jeremy Affeldt induces DP's
by Giant among Angels on Oct 5, 2009 9:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Guitierrez has been consistently really good.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
I see that now. I should have looked at his previous years data earlier.
Giant Dirtbags: John Bowker, Steve Hammond. MIA List: Todd Jennings, Brian Anderson
Jeremy Affeldt induces DP's
by Giant among Angels on Oct 5, 2009 9:38 PM PDT up reply actions
I haven’t watched him very much, but Mariner fans were besotted with that guy’s D from the get-go.
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
the thing you have to consider with UZR
is that it fluctuates a lot. More than batting average or OBA or wOBA. So, the guy who leads the league 1 year is not necessarily going to lead it the next.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
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