Improvement from within - young hitters
Hypothetically, let's simulate the Giants 2010 with the roster as is. We simulate enough scenarios so that everyone has gotten a chance to play a full season. I realize that Bochy still our manager, I just think this will be an interesting exercise. So, Lewis, Bowker, Scheirholtz, Garko (say he's re-upped), Velez, etc. all get plenty of at bats.
In this scenario which of the young guys producing the best. In other words which of our younger players already at the ML level could most improve the Giants offense next year and why?
If you'd like to be analytical (MLE) great, but I'm perfectly fine with hunches as well. Thoughts?
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I want to say Bowker, but I don’t feel like he’ll get much of a chance to actually play. Actually I’d say the same for the others you listed… except for Velez.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
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The said thing is that a lot of these guys aren’t even legitimately “younger” players anymore.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
Listen, all I’m saying is that it’s been said before.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Oct 30, 2009 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions
I am glad you said it and I want you you keep on saying it.
I R 5
by say hey nation on Oct 30, 2009 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions
To answer the question, though:
I’d say Posey.
Followed by Bowker/Lewis. Bowker’s bat could legitimately be better than Lewis’, but we already know that giving Lewis more playing time WOULD actually improve the team.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Oct 30, 2009 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions
BUDDING SUPERSTAR CORNERSTONE!
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
Fred Lewis is 29 this year, and 30 next year. Ryan Garko turns 29 in just a few months. Schireholtz is 26 next year (not too bad… hardly a youngen, though). And Bowker – my god – is even older than Schierholtz!
Crap. Don’t we have anybody other than Sandoval who can contribute more than these guys and is actually going to be no older than 25 next year?
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Oct 30, 2009 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Posey?
Joe Martinez: You are cool.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
OH YEAH!
I even mentioned him above. Whoopsie.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Oct 30, 2009 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Holly crap we suck!
Frandsen: 27 this year.
Matt Downs: 25 this year.
Emmanuel Burris: 25 next year.
Ishikawa: 27 next year.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Oct 30, 2009 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions
It truly is ridiculous
We should know about ALL of those guys already. And we’re still wondering.
The baseball Satanist
we know about three of them.
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Oct 30, 2009 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Burriss, Velez and Lewis?
That’s who I’d say we have a pretty good idea about.
The baseball Satanist
Downs, Burris, and Ishi
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Oct 31, 2009 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions
Lets stop lying to ourselves.
We do know about all these players, we just choose not to believe it.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Garko’s career numbers suggest he’ll be better than he was in 2009 with the Giants. I think the change in leagues hurt him. He’s not really a young hitter though.
I included Lewis too. Bowker was 26 last year. I just wanted to exclude guys like Rowand, Renteria, etc.
Pablo could be included if someone really sees him taking another big jump next year.
by Wonderful Terrific Monds on Oct 30, 2009 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions
As far as guys who were on last year’s 25 man roster, i’d be afraid of playing most of them full time. I think the Giants have themselves a nice group of platoon players, but very few show the ability to hit both sides of the mound. Even Garko has been fairly mediocre vs. right handers in his career. But, if i had to rank them from best to last, it would probably be something like:
Panda
Lewis
Posey
Garko
Bowker
Schierholz
Ishikawa
Velez
Guzman
Burriss?
Rohlinger
Frandsen
Downs
That’s off the top of my head; I hope there are some other guys down on the farm who can produce numbers that would put them in the middle of the list. Basically, young hitters come down to Panda, Lewis, Posey, Garko and a bunch of guys who wouldn’t start on 75% of the teams in MLB. I’d like to see the top 4 guys play almost every day, platoon Velez and Torres (not even close to a youngster anymore), and find a couple of utility guys to fill out platoon spots and injury holes. Ronnie Belliard might be a good option for the Giants, regardless of his production in Washington. He murders lefties and is so-so at multiple defensive positions. He’d be a lot cheaper than Chone Figgins, although he obviously doesn’t have the same tool set. I’d be surprised to see the offense improve much, but I don’t think it has to improve by leaps and bounds. They need guys to get on base, add a little bit of speed on the basepaths (not so much SB, but the ability to go from 1st to 3rd on a long single was sorely lacking on the 2009 Giants – likewise the ability go from 2nd to home). The Giants need a gap hitting team, not a bunch of home run hitters. Although, I’d take the home run hitters if they were cheap, which they rarely are (Ibanez and Dunn were there for the taking last year but Sabes said nyet).
Eliminate that pesky Dominatrix in one easy step. Step 1: Tell her you're a Cubs fan!
1. Lewis
1a. Garko
3. Bowker
4. Posey
5. Schierholtz (only if he’s in CF)
Velez will not hit at an acceptable MLB level. Schierholtz only will in CF, I think. Posey I think will eventually hit as good or better than Lewis/Garko, but not next year. There are stats to back this stuff up, but I don’t feel like looking them up and typing them…
Bowker as a sleeper
John Bowker looked lousy with the Giants last season. Couldn’t lay off the breaking ball down and from right-handers. But at Fresno he had a plus-1.000 OPS, an excellent 64/74 K/BB ratio and was said to be an extremely hard worker.
If he can translate that hard work into laying off that low, inside pitch, he could be the 2010 sleeper.
Of course he could also be merely asleep.
Plus he was never really given the chance to get into a rhythm with the Giants. he was used really sporadically, which was probably a good thing. Could you imagine how awful the Giants would have been if Winn and Velez weren’t kept fresh.
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Oct 30, 2009 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions
It did seem like he was starting to lay off the breaking pitches toward the very end of the season. Some guys need a while with MLB pitch recognition, which is vastly different than even AAA. Some guys never get it; I think Frandsen is in that category.
Eliminate that pesky Dominatrix in one easy step. Step 1: Tell her you're a Cubs fan!
an excellent 64/74 K/BB ratio
I don’t believe in Bowker, but that’s exactly why I’m at least willing to listen to arguments he’s good, and why I wouldn’t mind giving him a chance. He significantly improved his plate discipline in Fresno, his biggest failing, and it’s usually the type of thing that translates well from minors to majors, and is usually the type of skill that’s not a fluke.
by Missing Barry on Oct 30, 2009 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions
I noticed him being patient and occasionally laying off the breaking ball.
It wasn’t all the time… But he did manage a fare amount of walks, especially compared to his walk rate from 2008.
by AmorVincitOmnia on Oct 31, 2009 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions
Did Sabean really rebuild the farm system?
Keith Law wrote in his chat yesterday something to the effect that Bochy should have been fired but Sabean deserved to come back due to his efforts in rebuilding the farm system. Aside from pitching, I don’t see it. The guys the organization seems to like the most are Velez and Schierholtz, and they both are hackers with no plate discipline. Sabean years ago traded for A.J. Pierzynski, who also had no plate discipline. This year he traded for Freddy Sanchez, who also has no plate discipline – although he did win a batting title, and that matters more than his on-base % because they give you an award, right? I guess I just don’t see that he has rebuilt the farm system, and I don’t see that he is capable of rebuilding it if it isn’t already rebuilt.
There are a ton more actual prospects in the farm system compared to a few years ago: Posey, Neal, Crawford, Kieshnieck, Adrianza, Rodriguez, Dominguez, Noonan and a few others. Not all are surefire prospects but they are far more talented and interesting than anything we had a few years ago.
Also, including AJ and Freddy in your post about him not rebuilding the farm system doesn’t make any sense.
by AngelWillSaveUs on Oct 30, 2009 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions
yeahs
he did a great job cleanup up that mess that Sabean guy left.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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There are a ton more actual prospects in the farm system compared to a few years ago
So…there are prospects, as opposed to a few years ago.
As Zenbitz said:
he did a great job cleanup up that mess that Sabean guy left.
by Missing Barry on Oct 31, 2009 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions
I would say of those players, I am the least confident in velez. Unfortunately, it sounds like he could very well get more at bats than anyone else on this list.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
it's pretty much a paradox
the more faith you have in a player, the less playing time they’re going to get
Bowker, Garko, Schierholtz, and Ishikawa make my list. I don’t consider Lewis that much of a prospect anymore; he’s gotten plenty of playing time and you pretty much know what you’re getting with him (decent OBP/AVG, occasional dingers, scary “OMG HE’S NOT GONNA CATCH THAT phew he did” defense). Velez has a role as a super-utility guy, but it’s harder to find time for a guy not good enough to start and not good enough to be a defensive replacement and not good enough to be a pinch runner. He won’t be around in a few years.
Bowker’s pretty much proven he can slug; there’s not much more for him in AAA and he really needs a starting job. Garko has proven himself at the ML level, but of course he’s a platoon player in Bochy’s crazed head. Schierholtz has good value as a CF now, and good value as a corner OF if he can find out how to lay off or hit that inside breaking pitch. Ishikawa occasionally shows flashes of good power and has a great glove; if he develops that power and turns into a 20 HR guy (which I think he could; 9 HR in 326 AB last year, and most of those came in the middle of the year when he found his stroke), that plus his defense could make him somewhat valuable.
I still say Schierholtz...
He was raking before he hit the wall in Atlanta. After that, his swing changed. As some noted, he started swinging with his hands more than his hips, which cut his ability to make contact. The swings at HBP’s will haunt him forever, but he’s a lot better than people give him credit for.
I don’t like the idea to put him in center, though. He adds so much value in right field that I think it actually hurts his individual value to put him there. Sure, it makes more room for a Bowker or a Lewis, but neither will do what he can in the most difficult corner outfield in the league, and in center I doubt Nate will be the threat to get outfield assists the same way.
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He adds so much value in right field that I think it actually hurts his individual value to put him there.
If by this you mean, he can’t hit at an acceptable level for a corner outfielder, I’d have to agree.
(That’s the main reason we’re interested by the idea of Schierholtz in CF, his bat just isn’t enough for corner but might be enough for CF)
Also, outfield assists are overrated. Schierholtz’s arm was below average last year – not in terms of arm strength or anything, but the collective decisions/throws he made helped the team slightly less than an average player (not sure if “arm” is positionally adjusted or not). UZR has his arm rated as below average in all 3 of his MLB stints.
by Missing Barry on Oct 31, 2009 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions
If they all were to get 550 at bats next year, this is what I predict their stats would look like:
Bowker: .272 AVG, 22 HRs, 74 RBI, 4 SB, .332 OBP
Schierholtz: .276 AVG, 16 HRs, 65 RBI, 7 SB, .324 OBP
Velez: .265 AVG, 6 HR, 48 RBI, 33 SB, .323 OBP
Lewis: .258 AVG, 10 HR, 55 RBI, 24 SB, .311 OBP
Ishikawa: .281 AVG, 20 HR, 77 RBI, 3 SB, .344 OBP
Panda 4 Prez
Maybe a little too much of what his user name is.
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