The Premium Price of Fixing History
by hairball on Oct 28, 2009 10:25 AM PDT
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PrintIf Brian Sabean's crack team of experts could recognize position player skills one iota, this diary would not be necessary.
In 2009, Chone Figgins became a star based on OBP and defense, not to mention the fact that the guy could steal bases. Seen by some as the "perfect leadoff hitter", Figgins put together a slash line of .298/.395/.393, aided by 42 SB and a third base UZR rating of 14.5. All of this combined to give him the highest WAR of his career, 5.9, making him worth superstar money in his walk year. Bling bling.
The same season, the younger Rajai Davis (remember him?) stole 41 bases at a higher success rate while appearing in far less games than Figgins. Davis' OBP of .360 wasn't quite as hot as Figgins', but he was still able to put up a similar wOBA (.354 to Figgins' .358) while enjoying similar success in the field (11.1 UZR). All this was good for a 3.7 WAR, despite only 390 AB to Figgins' 615.
If the Giants end up springing for Figgins this offseason, I may complain, but not too loudly. An OBP-heavy leadoff hitter who can play good defense at third will solve some issues for the Giants (including 1B, which I imagine would then belong to Pablo), and of all the free agents, Figgins may be one of the best.
Still, paying uber dollars for one season of greatness is never a sure-fire strategy for success (as Sabean should know by now), and it will burn even more knowing that we gave up a very similar player that we had essentially gotten free. Wait, we traded Morris for Davis? That's better than free. How the hell did we let him get away?
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Beat dead horse. Sabean bad judge talent.
by positiveuphemism on Oct 28, 2009 10:54 AM PDT reply actions
Do You Really Think Rajai Davis's True Talent Level Is Anywhere Near This Good?
I think Andres Torres has every bit as good a chance of being the better player next year as Rajai Davis does.
You See, There Is This Thing Called On-Base-Percentage
Rajai Davis has always had it in spades. Andres, while no slouch, is not as blessed. That is why I think Davis’ ceiling is higher. Career minor league OBP of .375 vs .358 for Torres, not to mention the fact that Davis is 26, while Torres is 31 years old. Yeah, pretty big difference between the two.
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
We Shall See. My Money Is On Neither Coming Close In 2010 To Repeating 2009.
by giantsrainman on Oct 28, 2009 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Not to disagree but,
Rajai is 28 I think, not 26.
Amy Mainzer my brain thinks your brain is HOT!
by cybermaldonado on Oct 29, 2009 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions
He actually turned 29 this month.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
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I always liked Rajai Davis and I never understood why they let him go. Oh, right, fuck you Aaron Rowand.
After Raja hit 119 over 30 plus ab's the team brass thought he sucked.
It is the same mentality that tosses away guys like Bowker, Schierholtz, Torres, etc. Some of these guys may perform if only given half a chance to play regularly. Lewis was punished this year for his fielding, and not hitting for the expected power numbers some of the giants brass got into their heads. Even though Lewis is a decent obp guy, he does not seem to be a decent drive in guy with runners in scoring position.
he does not seem to be a decent drive in guy with runners in scoring position.
Now, Lewis doesn’t hit with a whole lot of power so he’s not going to drive in as many runs as say…Ryan Howard. But somehow he was blamed for the above situation, when just as much of the problem stemmed from nobody getting on base in front of him…
by Missing Barry on Oct 28, 2009 6:34 PM PDT up reply actions
if davis did what he did this year
How can we say its not his true talent level, when he already put up the numbers. Is some pseudo lower expectation his real talent level, or are the numbers he put up his real talent level? Good question. Regression to some unkown mean is expected by some, but how do we know if he will not improve again?
We base our expectations on historical probabilities. Chances are he’s playing above his head, based on what similar players in the past have done. When we use “true talent”, it’s not a reference to what actually happened – it’s a reference to the players expected production, which is a function of their “true talent level”.
Basically, we acknowledge that we do not know whether he’s really that good or not, so we use what we do know – what similar players in the past have done, to make a more informed guess as to what he really is. If you want to bet on the side that’s more unlikely, go ahead, I know I’m comfortable guessing he’s going to regress (the more likely scenario). Also – Rajai Davis, 2009, BABIP? .366. 2009 made up almost half his career PA’s, and he only has a career BABIP of .332. That tells us he was most likely lucky when he put the ball into play and that will regress next year, bringing his overall production down…
by Missing Barry on Oct 28, 2009 6:39 PM PDT up reply actions
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