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Rehashing old topics...clutch hitting?

I know, I know this topic has been talked to death, and if you feel the need to scream at me, I understand. I realize that every way it can be measured, clutch hitting doesn't exist. However, anyone who has played baseball at a semi-serious level (including Little League when you were twelve) just knows that when you're in the batter's box with the winning run on second and two out, the bat gets gripped a little harder. Legs get a little stiffer, and the pitcher seems a little closer. How do we then reconcile the human element with the proof in the numbers? Is the pitcher feeling the same stress, thereby nullifying the hitters feelings? Are MLB-er's somehow immune to this feeling? Is clutch hitting somehow not defined properly, therefore not measured properly? I'm very curious to know what ya'll think.


This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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The strongest anti-clutch argument on the Pirates’ roster can be made by Freddy Sanchez.

He won the National League batting title with a .344 average last summer, and his .386 mark with runners in scoring position was the team’s highest. Only Pujols’ .397 mark was higher in the league.

Seems plenty clutch.

Not the case at all, he maintains.

"To me, it’s pretty simple," Sanchez said. "If you’re hot going into that clutch situation, you have a good chance. You’re already feeling good. Obviously, there are times when a hitter can tense up, and there are some better mentally prepared than others. All I can say is that, for me, when I go up to the plate, it’s not about the men on base. It’s about how I’m feeling."

He rolled his eyes, remembering those four consecutive strikeouts in a game last week in Milwaukee.

"Trust me: If I’m feeling lousy at the plate like that, I’m not just going to walk up there with bases loaded and get a hit because I’m some great clutch hitter."

I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory

by Natto on Oct 23, 2009 1:34 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

There's no need to "reconcile" them. They reconcile themselves.

In the simplest terms that I can think of: “Clutch” exists rather undeniably. However, at the major league level it doesn’t affect performance in any meaningful way. The stats don’t say that it doesn’t exist. They say that it doesn’t matter.

Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.

by howtheyscored on Oct 23, 2009 2:08 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I see clutch as this.

A player has a skill set at the beginning of the year (100%) if he is able to maintain that level of play for high stress situations then he is “clutch”

I R 5

by say hey nation on Oct 26, 2009 7:56 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Are MLB-er’s somehow immune to this feeling?

Mostly this. Professional athletes aren’t representative of the rest of society. If you can’t focus at the highest level, perform in clutch situations (like with 40,000+ people watching you from the stands, which happens every at-bat [sorry Marlins, not you])…chances are, you’ll never succeed in the first place. It’s survivor bias.

There actually is some evidence that clutch exists to a small extent – the problem is, it’s the exception and it’s such a small effect that it takes like 10+ years of data on the individual before you can conclude whether or not they’re “clutch” at all. Which makes it basically pointless and you’re better off treating it like it doesn’t exist at all.

by Missing Barry on Oct 23, 2009 2:16 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree

Players who are anti-clutch are weeded out before making it to the big leagues.

"We're in this thing!" My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman, "Sweet Jesus" Guzman and Jesus H. Guzman.

by Goofus on Oct 23, 2009 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That’s what I assume, too. And on the other end of the spectrum, most people need to use their fullest level of concentration to be able to play in the big leagues, so it’s not like they can get a whole lot better in clutch situations.

Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa

by raisingcain on Oct 23, 2009 8:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with you to some point. I also wonder if “clutch” just isn’t measured properly. How many of us think a runner at 2nd with two outs in the seventh inning when you’re up by eight runs is a clutch at bat? I sure don’t…however that same situation up/down by a run becomes clutch.

by tyrannoman on Oct 23, 2009 4:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

there have been a lot of different studies using a lot of different measures, and the results are pretty much the same.

Fangraphs uses leverage, which is a measure of possible swings in win probability – so that late innings in close games count more. You can take a look at this year here.

You can see from the list that having a good year in clutch situations doesn’t necessarily mean you had a good year. Randy Winn was money in close games in the late innings, but that doesn’t take away from all the outs he made in every other situation.

Any time anyone gives a definition that’s worth a damn, they find that guys bounce around too much for it to really considered a skill. Homerun hitters don’t suddenly start hitting banjos, but guys go from Captain Clutch one year, to Captain High Leverage Double Play Ball the next.

Please hit better, Randy Winn.

by oldjacket on Oct 24, 2009 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

“Randy Winn was money in close games in the late innings, but that doesn’t take away from all the outs he made in every other situation.”

True, but the other side of the coin is that you also have to discount outs made when the game is more or less in-hand for one team. There’s a pronounced tendency for most players to just go up and hack when the Leverage Index is low and Win Expectancy is at the ends of the scales. WPA/LI helps cut through some of that noise.

Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below .500
We are at war with Los Angeles. We have always been at war with Los Angeles.
Lowering the Quality of Internet Discourse Since 1985™

by S.F. Giangst on Oct 24, 2009 8:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nick Anderson says hello.

My Bucardo is better than yours.

A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.

by Roger on Oct 24, 2009 8:15 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Another perspective, albeit one that came out of a football discussion.

Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.

by howtheyscored on Oct 23, 2009 2:48 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

That reminds me a a book called “Deep Survival” which goes into neuroscience, behavioral psychology, and environmental situations to determine why people act they way they do in crisis and survival situations. It’s a fascinating read.

by tyrannoman on Oct 23, 2009 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

it’s a little bit of stretch to say that clutch definitely doesn’t exist.

I’m more in the “probably doesn’t exist” camp.

Please hit better, Randy Winn.

by oldjacket on Oct 23, 2009 2:51 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I think clutch performance exists

Obviously, we can measure that.

I’m not sure, however, that clutch as a repeatable skill exists, if that makes sense.

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!

by baetown415 on Oct 23, 2009 3:34 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

This

clutch is not a repeatable skill, but handling pressure situations correctly is. Pressure and stress cause physical changes in the body (increased heart rate, the shakes, etc.) and how an athlete controls those changes plays a huge role in how the do in “clutch” situations. I’d be willing to bet that the athletes that are traditionally “clutch” are the ones that can minimize the physical effects of stress and can just focus on taking a good AB.

Adopted brother of Jason Jarvis.

by j14 on Oct 23, 2009 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

well said. Even though the player maybe handling the pressure perfectly, he may not actually get on base due to a variety of reasons.

by tyrannoman on Oct 26, 2009 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah

i think it kinda/maybe/sorta/possibly exists, but its hard ot define a player being “clutch”

by sfoakbay on Oct 24, 2009 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m going to go ahead and go outside the box here: clutch hitting, hitting better in high-pressure situations, probably doesn’t exist. It doesn’t really make sense from a logical point: if a batter is consciously a better hitter in a clutch situation…then why wouldn’t they apply that to non-clutch situations and become a better hitter overall? That would theoretically put their clutch performance right in line with their regular performance, and boost their value as a hitter.

Of course, there are things you can’t really replicate: the adrenaline, the knowledge of pressure, the actual situation. You can tell yourself to act the same way, but it’s hard to sort of use the placebo effect when you can clearly see they’re sugar pills; telling yourself to hit like there’s a runner on 2nd and two outs because you’re better in that situation doesn’t change the fact that you can see there isn’t a runner on 2nd and you know there aren’t two outs. That’s the reason for the probably. But I’d say, like pretty much everyone else, in all likelihood it doesn’t exist or it’s too insignificant to spend time trying to fix. Get your BB% up instead.

by quincy0191 on Oct 23, 2009 9:03 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I definitely believe that clutch hitting exists.

But on the major league level, even for the best clutch hitters it is a losing proposition as the clutch hitter will still make more outs than hits, and he just might be up against a clutch pitcher. But the key to clutchness in my opinion is being INTENSE and not TENSE. The so called being in the zone phenomenon.

by bradleybear on Oct 23, 2009 10:17 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I believe it exists as well. Just look at ARod in the post season as an example. I don’t know what it is, whether it’s a different attitude, Kate Hudson, steroids, or no longer giving a shit about anything, but the ARod of this year just looks like a different player than the ARod of past post seasons. He’s on a roll and he knows it. His body language is different, in fact the look on his face is different. Major league players are not immune to being confident up there at one point and lacking confidence at the plate at other times. If you want to argue that “clutch” hitting comes and goes with all players depending on whether they’re hot or not that’s one thing, but there definitely are players who focus better and hit better when the game is on the line, and others who want no part of those situations.

No Edgar, it's not your fault, it's the fault of the idiot that plays you

by rxmeister on Oct 24, 2009 6:37 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't know.

2005 and 2006 were the only seasons his stats were anything but really good in the postseason. And he’s been in the playoffs 8 times.

Add in small sample size and better opponents… he really hasn’t choked in the postseason very much.

Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.

by howtheyscored on Oct 24, 2009 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

look Howie, if everyone in the New York media says it, and a bunch of spoiled Yankee fans believe it, it must be true.

Please hit better, Randy Winn.

by oldjacket on Oct 24, 2009 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He went 0 for 29 with RISP during the postseason over a three year period. Can you imagine all those stupid New Yorkers thinking that’s not clutch? Thank God you smart west coast guys are here to set us straight!

No Edgar, it's not your fault, it's the fault of the idiot that plays you

by rxmeister on Oct 25, 2009 6:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This looks an awful lot to me like you’re bending over backwards to try to explain the why of small sample sizes. I don’t know why we feel the need to come up with reasons why everything happened – the most likely explanation is just random chance…it just happened, and there is no explanation why…

by Missing Barry on Oct 25, 2009 7:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It just happened and there is no explanation why…

Fate? Random variation?

by JetSam on Oct 26, 2009 8:59 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Random variation?

Yep. I don’t really see that as an explanation, though – after all it could be more than random variation, it could be a lot of things…but who cares, it’s a small sample, and things like this happen. The same exact thing happened with Bonds, he didn’t do well in a small sample initially in the playoffs then had an absolute monster year. It’s a small sample, just accept it happened, and get over the need to explain the why!

by Missing Barry on Oct 26, 2009 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The issue with random variation is that we will never know, b/c the same exact circumstances will never happen again.

I R 5

by say hey nation on Oct 26, 2009 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, that’s kind of my point. It’s never the same circumstances, and we’ll never know the answer why. I just don’t see why so many people feel so strongly that they need to come up with an explanation…

by Missing Barry on Oct 26, 2009 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

people like to bitch and will make stats up to make it definitive!

I R 5

by say hey nation on Oct 26, 2009 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, but hes not playing above his talent level. Clutch, to me, means that someone plays outside the talent level.

I R 5

by say hey nation on Oct 26, 2009 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

not a bad post

when i saw the title, i felt like yelling at you, but you brought up some interesting questions, which haven’t been discussed before.

by sfoakbay on Oct 24, 2009 2:40 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

If you can’t measure it, it doesn’t exist?

OT: Do any of you whippersnappers even know how to drive clutch?

"It's too late now."

by ResDog on Oct 26, 2009 9:09 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Learned on a three on the tree, perfected with a four on the floor!

I R 5

by say hey nation on Oct 26, 2009 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And I hope this is sarcasm!

If you can’t measure it, it doesn’t exist?

I R 5

by say hey nation on Oct 26, 2009 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yep

There is definitely such a thing as a clutch hitter. Because we’re talking about it. Heck, there’s a wikipedia page for it, which is the true test of what is real or fiction.

"It's too late now."

by ResDog on Oct 26, 2009 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don’t know if I believe in “Clutch”, but I won’t say it doesn’t exist b/c I can’t measure it. Just b/c you couldn’t measure blood sugar or insulin levels before 1900’s(estimation) does that mean that diabetes wasn’t a disease?

I R 5

by say hey nation on Oct 26, 2009 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe my history of sarcasm is biting me in the ass

My point is that clutch hitters exist.

"It's too late now."

by ResDog on Oct 26, 2009 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK, got it. I have been having a hard time with sarcasm lately.

I R 5

by say hey nation on Oct 26, 2009 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wait, so you’re saying that because it can’t be measured, it does exist?

The list of things that can’t be measured that don’t exist is much, much longer than the list of things of things that can’t be measured that do.

Please hit better, Randy Winn.

by oldjacket on Oct 26, 2009 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Point was (I think)

Not everything can be measured.

"It's too late now."

by ResDog on Oct 26, 2009 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

There’s no theoretical reason clutch hitting shouldn’t be measureable, though. There are clutch situations, and people keep track of the exact situation for every single at-bat that happens. We measure hitting for every at-bat, too. All we have to do is combine the two and we should have our answer. Obviously coming up with a specific definition for “clutch” isn’t easy since it’s subjective and everyone has their own opinion of what it is, but if it exists, it is certainly measureable.

by Missing Barry on Oct 26, 2009 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

well, yeah.

I’ve got three scrapped thesis projects to prove it!

I endorse Missing Barry’s response, though. It seems like there are several ways that should work to measure clutch, but they don’t. That smells like it probably doesn’t exist to me.

Please hit better, Randy Winn.

by oldjacket on Oct 26, 2009 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, as I noted before, clutch hitting does exist, and has been found by smart people (Tom Tango, for instance)…the problem is just the effect is very small and clutch players are the exception rather than the rule, so you need such a big sample size to find it that you’re better off evaluating players as if it didn’t exist….

by Missing Barry on Oct 26, 2009 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah, all that. It’s a pretty long asterisk.

Please hit better, Randy Winn.

by oldjacket on Oct 26, 2009 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

More like, “if it doesn’t have a measurable effect, than it’s not important.”

Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.

by howtheyscored on Oct 26, 2009 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It’s definitely important, but it’s doubtful you can accurately measure it.

"It's too late now."

by ResDog on Oct 26, 2009 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is it really important, though? The whole reason it’s hard to measure is because the change in performance is so small we need a huge sample size to figure out if the change is for real or not. Is a small increase in performance really all that important in the grand scheme of things? Probably not.

by Missing Barry on Oct 26, 2009 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Important to measure one player over another? Probably not. Can you measure it to predict the outcome of the game? Highly unlikely. Important to the outcome of the game? Definitely.

"It's too late now."

by ResDog on Oct 26, 2009 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m just saying if the difference between the few players who are actually clutch and everyone else is a .002 wOBA increase in their production, is it really going to matter in the outcome of a game? Does that small increase really make a difference in their expected performance? Not really.

by Missing Barry on Oct 26, 2009 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

OH SHIT

Ahem… THEN it’s not important.

Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.

by howtheyscored on Oct 26, 2009 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Luckily, it appears that I was quoting somebody. So that’s not MY fault….

Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.

by howtheyscored on Oct 26, 2009 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

How it’s measured, imo, is all wrong. If you are using it to predict future success of a player in clutch situations than I can see why you want to use a big sample size for analysis. But, the truth is that not all playoff plate appearances should be considered clutch situations. Not all regular season games are crucial. There are plenty of instances where there are runners in scoring position and it really means jack to the outcome of the team’s game/season. And the bigger the size of the data, the more likely the players production will regress to their overall performance.

To measure clutch hitters, the smaller the sample size the better. For instance, Billy Hatcher is a clutch hitter.

"It's too late now."

by ResDog on Oct 26, 2009 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

this is the issue. WHAT IS THE DEFINITION OF CLUTCH AND WHAT MAKES THAT CLUTCH? What outcomes in that situation are considered to be clutch and so on. Until a definition is widely accepted it is relatively useless having this debate b/c we all have our own notions as to what clutch is and are all making arguments and counter arguments against different definitions.

I R 5

by say hey nation on Oct 26, 2009 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Measuring clutch hitting as an ability – that is, a replicable skill we can expect the player to continue in the future, is different than saying a player has been clutch in the past. It’s certainly important to note clutch players in the past – it had an effect on winning past games, after all, the objection is when you use that information to decide they’ll be clutch in the future (which happens very, very often, and is very, very wrong).

If you’re arguing that projection future clutch performance requires smaller sample sizes then you need to take more statistics, but I’m not sure that’s what you’re trying to say. For instance:

And the bigger the size of the data, the more likely the players production will regress to their overall performance.

The whole reason it will regress is because in the future you can expect them to perform to their natural talent level, implying they don’t have any more clutch ability than their true talent level suggests.

Anyways, moving on to another point, there are more sophisticated ways of measuring clutch than you touched on – people do take that stuff into account that you named. Leverage index is a good start – it’s based on win probabilities, if the game is in hand, even in a bases loaded or RISP situation or anything like that, a player doesn’t get much LI credit, whereas a close game they do…

by Missing Barry on Oct 26, 2009 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

My main beef with the sample size was people using too much data to prove that ‘clutch’ doesn’t exist. While I think the smaller sample size (while not being a good tool to measure future performance) is the best way to definite ‘clutch hitters’.

Obviously the definition itself & each situation is going to change based on everyone’s opinion. Leverage Index does look like a good place to start. Gracias.

"It's too late now."

by ResDog on Oct 26, 2009 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think I should have posted this link a lot earlier.

My bad. I recommend everyone click it and read what it says.

by Missing Barry on Oct 26, 2009 3:05 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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