Pulling a number from jcb9’s ass….

80-ish wins?

With superstar veteran Jermaine Dye you can knock that down to 78 wins.

It’s difficult to say at this point as I’m sure there are going to be some moves which could boost or reduce the total a bit. If i were to guess at this point I’d probably say around 82 wins. I think we’re a better team than the 76 win team suggested by BtB but not as good as the 88 wins we actually won. 82 wins seems sensible based on the fangraphs WAR values and by looking at the pre-season projections.

If we do nothing but re-sign Uribe, keep Sanchez and do a better job of playing the right guys, I’d say 88 again.

I don’t think we were an 88 win team, but think we could be there by platooning Torres/Velez, Garko/Ishikawa, Lewis/Juggernate, playing Posey and getting a full and hopefully healthy season out of Sanchez.

If we re-signed Penny, I’d raise it to 90.
If we signed Holliday, I’d bump it up to 93.

I know what Lars’ answer will be:
79 80 wins.

This is a little different than the original proposition. Next year’s team will be hard pressed to get the lack of offensive production that we got from RF, SS and 2B that we got last year. We will likely give back some runs on OF defense without Winn. Teh clutchiness and bullpen performances will be tough to repeat, too.

I reckon that Sabean will do what he does best: pay too much for not enough improvement.
O/U at 81.5 wins

honestly, maybe like 80 to 82 wins? And if they do what I think they’re going to do this offseason, I might take the under on that. :(

78

Really though, i’m gonna go with 76.

too early

I say we make it to 88 again.

As things sit the Giants have no healthy SS or 2nd baseman and I’ll presume a scrub part time veteran Cather to help care take the spot tell Posey is deemed ready to play. I would say the possible upside is much better going into 2010 if for no other reason the team now has 1 legit hart of the order bat and who’s glove doesn’t mandate changing positions yet.

Which is:

1. Let Benji walk
2. Sign Sanchez to a stupid deal something like 4/28
3. Sign a vet like Dye to masquerade as a clean up hitter for something like 2/20
4. Lose their arb cases to Lince, Sanchez and Wilson
5. Complain about how the fan’s expectations of actually improving the ball club are unrealistic
6. Re-sign Uribe to a stupid deal like 3/20

Then we’ll go 78-84 and Sabean will wonder what went wrong, and that he has warped back to 2004 and replaced MAlou, Alfonzo, and Durham with Dye, Uribe and Sanchez. We’re screwed.

Then I think they’ll

At this point I can’t project anything other than a vague, there is no way they will be better next year because Sabean is still choosing the players and they overperformed last year.

But it’s possible our hitters will have career years and Buster is god and Sabes will grow a brain in the next week or two.

and it was incredibly painful to read because the author could not for the life him/her(it)self reconcile the Giants’ reality with the haphazardly constructed universe of stats that were used to rank the teams. Rather than admitting that the ranking formula was complete crap (or at the very least, incredibly flawed), they attributed the extra wins to “Luck”.

Luck? Are you kidding me? I can’t really make a good guess at how many wins they’ll pick up next year (because it obviously depends on other teams, injuries, rosters, schedule, travel, weather, and whatever the Raiders Pigeon decides to do after the NFL season), but I will say this:

as long as the BtB ranking formula cannot explain how an extreme Pitching/Defense dynamic wins games, I’ll take the OVER on just about any of their numbers. (and when the OVER wins, you can just call it luck)

LOL PREMATURE

78 wins

84.

why don’t we predict the 2011 season record while we’re at it? In fact let’s make predictions all the way until the next century. C’mon, you can’t make predictions for next year before the team (and it’s opponents) make their offseason moves.

83.14159265358979323846264338327950288

For Lars. Think about it

Two years ago I would have bet O on the OU at Vegas… and I would have done so last year, too… but I don’t gamble AND 88 wins in 2009 exceeded my optimism. Can we do it again? Or better it?

I think starting pitching will be as good and I’m confident we’ll fill the bullpen holes. BUT… will Ishikawa learn to layoff the “down-n-’in”? Will he ever hit away from AT&T as well as he does at home? Will Aaron layoff the “down-n-out”? Will we bite the bullet with Renteria and play someone else? Will Uribe revert to the norm? (Let’s hope Garko does!) Will Posey fulfill his potential? Will Franchez come back? And so on.

I’m not as down on some guys as many folks are…e.g., I think Franchez still could turn out well and there’s room for Molina IMO… AND I don’t think we need an overhaul as long as the younger guys come through… but that’s too many “ifs” to be laying money down this early.