It should be Tim, because of IP but I think Carp will get it.

And it’s not as though he’s undeserving. I just think Tim is more deserving.

I don’t think Tim will win it. The voters won’t see “improvement” (though they would be wrong) and will punish him for it.

Lincecum’s got 15 wins. He’s not getting it.

Well, Lincecum is obviously better than he was last year.

Carpenter SHOULD win it if he had Lincecum’s IP’s.

Wainwright SHOULD win it if he had Lincecum’s ERA.

I hope Lincecum wins it because the people who favor a Cardinals pitcher will split their vote.

In any case, all 3 are deserving (and when the hell did Wainwright figure it all out? BABIP is actually way higher than last year. But so is K/9, though not much higher than career average (sss)).

Who knows. Carp’s been the most successful pitcher this year in the NL but I’m not sure he’s pitched enough innings (or earned his success). Wainwright has his 19 wins. Neither has been as dominant as Timmy.

We’ll see. I’ll take Timmy over either next year (and not just for injury). Carp has a BABIP against of .274 when his career average is .301.

If Carpenter doesn’t win, I’ll be surprised. He doesn’t deserve it, but when has that mattered?

One of the Cards pitchers will win it.

Those guys aren’t undeserving, but Tim was better this year. His best chance is that voters will split on Carp and Wainwright and Tim will sneak through. Both guys were awesome, but Tim was as good or better than last year in just about every category and he gets guys out all by himself better than anyone.

And writers are falling all over themselves to say wins don’t matter when it comes to Zach Greinke, so they should view it the same way when it comes to Tim, but I’m not seeing it very much. I hate double standards, but I feel like one will be applied here.

Tim wins due to Cards split vote

Jonathan Broxton!

I doubt he’ll win it, although I would say imo he probably deserves it. It’s a different feeling from last year, when I wanted him to win and fiercely believed he would – I still want him to win, but the belief is mostly gone. That’s okay, though, he had a great season and was so fun to watch, and he already has 1 cy, hopefully more to come.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=nl&qual=y&type=6&season=2009&month=0

does lead in WPA. I suspect because his WHIP is lower. Since the Giants defense is better than the Cards, I think this is a point in Carpenters’ favor.

In short, while I thin LIncecum was better this year, Carpenter wouldn’t be the worst choice in the history of CY votes.

Tim deserves it, Carpenter will get it. Wainwright probably shouldn’t be considered, given that WINZ are irrelevant and he’s lower than Timmeh in K and lower than Carp in ERA. It’ll be a three-horse race because the voters are stupid people who think WINZ matter, but that doesn’t mean Wainwright should be in the discussion. Yes, he’s had a fantastic year, but so have plenty of other pitchers, and we’re not talking about them. And without the wins, Wainwright really doesn’t have much to go on.

Tim’s had a better year than Carpenter given the time Carp spent on the DL, mainly because that extra month of pitching meant Tim was running on that much less as the season wrapped up. An extra month of rest would probably have boosted Timmeh’s stats by quite a bit. Considering the great numbers across the board, and how he’s improved pretty much everywhere except in K’s, I find it hard to choose Carpenter.

But of course Carpenter’s 17 wins and 2.24 ERA will swing the vote his way, as will the fact that he played on a “winning team” that went to the playoffs; voters care about that for some reason (it’s the reason one idiot NY writer says Jeter should get the MVP over Mauer). It’s not fair, but it’s what’ll happen (and hopefully it’ll save the Giants some money in arb this winter).

I am also interested in Lincecum’s CYA chances.

We can do an i-tim

Apple is SF Bay Area based…just saying

Carpenter’s performance last night really does prove one thing to me. Either he was having a bad day or it just proves to show that his month not playing really did do wonders to refresh and revitalize his performance (not that his numbers were terrible before) but if Tim had a month off he would have probably done better. Carpenter last night was looking kind of like Timmy did in the last month, still throwing pretty ok stuff but tired as shit