Lincecum's CY chances
by shanghaijim on Oct 2, 2009 10:23 PM PDT
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PrintAfter Lincecum was knocked out early in the LA series, Rob Neyer said there was no way he would win the Cy Young this year, and I agreed with him. But it looks a lot more compelling than I (we) thought.
ERA: Carpenter (Lincecum 2nd)
Wins: Wainwright (Lincecum tied with 7 for 4th) (Carpenter 2nd)
K: hahahahahaha (Wainwright 4th, Carpenter not in contest)
WHIP: Haren (Carpenter 2nd) (Lincecum 4th) (Wainwright 10th)
I guess those are the big four stats. I bet some will value wins more, more than a few will look to WHIP. (I mean, if a guy like ME is now talking about WHIP ...)
Also, for the heck of it, I noted Lincecum has 2 complete game shutouts, Carpenter 1, Wainwright ... can't find him, and Tim (with Cain) has 4 complete games, one more than Carpenter.
This may not add up to a sure-fire winning case, but he's definitely got at least as good a case as Carpenter, with more innings pitched to boot; especially now that Wainwright has failed to reach the magic 20 mark.
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I watched a Sportcenter debate about it. Tim Kurkjian argued in favor of Lincecum because wins aren’t that important. He then proceeded to mock the one guy who said they mattered as though he didn’t always used to say the exact same thing. Tim Kurkjian is a dumbass and a tool. Aside, though, they said advantage Lincecum because he beats Wainwright in ERA, K’s, WHIP, and everything else important besides wins. Chris Carpenter has less than 200 innings, which according to them could make it hard for him to win. I kind of agree, because he missed a significant portion of the season. Lincecum has a good 40 more innings. I think it’ll go to Wainwright because Tim Kurkjian will vote for him and his wins in secrecy, but I don’t think it should be much of a debate. In a couple of months, Timmy at least should have his 2nd CYA.
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To quote Scott Ostler (roughly): Getting a win with the Giants is harder than a win with the Cardinals, like diamond is harder than talc.
I'm not saying Lincecum doesn't deserve it
But he won last year without getting 20 wins, and that wasn’t unanimous. Is he going to win this year with 15? No. it’s just not going to happen.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
The first Chester Arthur fanboy ever.
15 is an arbitrary number, not a whole lot different than 17 or 18 or however many he had last year. Eric Gagne won a Cy young with probably 0 wins.
The last time a starting pitcher won a Cy Young with less than 16 wins was Fernando Valenzuela in 1981.
There was a strike that year that wiped out two months of the season.
That is also the only time a starting pitcher has won a Cy Young with less than 16 wins.
It’s not going to happen.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
The first Chester Arthur fanboy ever.
Can you look up the last time a 140lb manchild with hair like a carnival worker threw in the high 90’s and had the best changeup in the league?
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carpenter
For offensive contributions.
But seriously, it seems like a dead lock between Lincecum and Carpenter for me. Either deserve it, both could get it. The fact that most of Lincecum’s poorer starts (relatively) came in August and September might tip the scale in Carpenter’s favor, but Lincecum was ripping it up while Carp sat on his hands.
An interesting stat that doesn’t get much notice for Starting Pitchers is IP/9, which is a better guage of their performance than total IP in my book. Carp’s is 6.8, Tim’s is 7.0. Both are pretty badass.
Since the Cy isn’t a team contribution award as much as the MVP is, I’m inclined to actually consider Carp’s comeback from an injury in his favor as opposed to against him.
Voting for Lincecum for SecKsy factor.
I’m pretty sure they both pitch 9 innings for every 9 innings they pitch, actually.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
The first Chester Arthur fanboy ever.
I'm an optimist, but...
Well, Lincecum is obviously better than he was last year.
Carpenter SHOULD win it if he had Lincecum’s IP’s.
Wainwright SHOULD win it if he had Lincecum’s ERA.
I hope Lincecum wins it because the people who favor a Cardinals pitcher will split their vote.
In any case, all 3 are deserving (and when the hell did Wainwright figure it all out? BABIP is actually way higher than last year. But so is K/9, though not much higher than career average (sss)).
Who knows. Carp’s been the most successful pitcher this year in the NL but I’m not sure he’s pitched enough innings (or earned his success). Wainwright has his 19 wins. Neither has been as dominant as Timmy.
We’ll see. I’ll take Timmy over either next year (and not just for injury). Carp has a BABIP against of .274 when his career average is .301.
Nobody likes money
I agree. Tim is better than last year in every category except Ks, IPs and Ws. He still leads the NL in Ks and lags the NL leader in IPs (Wainwright) by 8.
Gary Darling, go DIAFF.
by The Enchanter on Oct 3, 2009 5:53 AM PDT up reply actions
I think this is the first full year that Wainwright has been healthy. He’s always had some beastly stuff.
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
Ya know...ignorance really IS bliss.
Well - I do , anyway.
by victor frankenstein on Oct 3, 2009 12:34 AM PDT reply actions
I want you to know, you’re doing the big man’s work with the images. Please keep them going.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
They should factor in run support. Then Timmy would win hands down. Give Tim STL’s lineup and he’s a 20 game winner.
We just traded who for who?!
“But they’re not exactly irrelevant, either. Lincecum and Carpenter have had just about identical run support (5.83 and 5.84, respectively) and bullpen support (three blown saves apiece).”
by gswarriors2006 on Oct 3, 2009 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions
Interesting. By watching the whole season I didn’t think Tim’s run support was anywhere close to that. But I guess it’s like poker, you always remember the bad beats, but rarely remember when you got lucky. When it comes to 2009, I remember those 1-0, 2-1, 3-2 losses for Tim.
We just traded who for who?!
Over at St. Louis board
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2009/10/1/1065558/veb-awards-for-the-2009-season
Its only 9 votes, but over at the St. Louis fanboard, Tim is ahead in the cy young race.
CY
Lincecum – 37 points (5)
Wainwright – 26 points (3)
Carpenter – 16 points (1)
Vazquez – 2 points
Interesting that they have Wainwright ahead of Carpenter. If it comes down to Wainwright and Timmy in the top two, Timmy will win. I just have a feeling that Carpenter is gonna win it this year
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2009: The return of Los Galacticos!
by Useful_Idiot on Oct 3, 2009 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions
If Carpenter doesn’t win, I’ll be surprised. He doesn’t deserve it, but when has that mattered?
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
If Wainwright won his 20th on Friday, I thought he would win it but he got a no-decision.
If you don't eat your meat, you can't have any pudding.
I definitely think 20 would be the magic thing that put Wainwright over the top, all other factors remaining the same. Being left at 19 actually makes me pay more attention to the other stats where he lags both Carpenter and Lincecum.
--
Long ago they came west over the mountains, and I have rooted for them years uncounted; and together through many ages of this world we have fought the long defeat.
One of the Cards pitchers will win it.
WHY IS BOCOCK?!
by Lars The Wanderer on Oct 3, 2009 8:35 AM PDT reply actions
Tim deserves it again
Those guys aren’t undeserving, but Tim was better this year. His best chance is that voters will split on Carp and Wainwright and Tim will sneak through. Both guys were awesome, but Tim was as good or better than last year in just about every category and he gets guys out all by himself better than anyone.
And writers are falling all over themselves to say wins don’t matter when it comes to Zach Greinke, so they should view it the same way when it comes to Tim, but I’m not seeing it very much. I hate double standards, but I feel like one will be applied here.
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by nostocksjustbonds on Oct 3, 2009 9:10 AM PDT reply actions
Lincecum and Carpenter have had just about identical run support (5.83 and 5.84, respectively) and bullpen support (three blown saves apiece).
HM.
I think it would be more useful to look at how many QS they have that resulted in either a ND or a loss.
Carp had 22 QS this year in 28 games started, which is 79%.
He got wins in 15 of them, losses in 2 of them and ND in 5 of them.
He got 2 wins in non-QS, losses in 2 of them and ND in 4 of them.
Tim had 26 QS this year in 32 starts, which is 81%.
He got all 15 of his wins in QS. He had losses in 4 of them and ND in a whopping 7 of them.
he got 0 wins in non-QS, losses in 3 of them and ND in 3.
Ugh, looking over Tim’s game logs this year is so frustrating. He could have easily gotten well over 20 wins with even a slightly competent offense.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
This may not be useful as it’s just an eyeballing though exercise, but make Carpenter or Wainwright depend on the Giants offense and let’s see how good their numbers are …
--
Long ago they came west over the mountains, and I have rooted for them years uncounted; and together through many ages of this world we have fought the long defeat.
Adam Wainwright is the Ralph Nader of Cy Young races
Wall-E for Best Picture 2008
2009: The return of Los Galacticos!
by Useful_Idiot on Oct 3, 2009 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Missouri is a swing state….
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Official Sponsor of the 1997 San Francisco Giants
by nostocksjustbonds on Oct 3, 2009 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Secret Cy Young Option
Jonathan Broxton!
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
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I doubt he’ll win it, although I would say imo he probably deserves it. It’s a different feeling from last year, when I wanted him to win and fiercely believed he would – I still want him to win, but the belief is mostly gone. That’s okay, though, he had a great season and was so fun to watch, and he already has 1 cy, hopefully more to come.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
If timmy were on the cards, he would have about 23 wins.
The guy had 15 wins on a team that may or may not have a 700 OPS.
uh...ok
As I said, I think he probably deserves to win it. And I don’t really care whether he has 15 or 23 wins as far as his cy young case is concerned, since I can see exactly how he pitched without seeing the decision he got in the game.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
Chris Carpenter
does lead in WPA. I suspect because his WHIP is lower. Since the Giants defense is better than the Cards, I think this is a point in Carpenters’ favor.
In short, while I thin LIncecum was better this year, Carpenter wouldn’t be the worst choice in the history of CY votes.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
What is WPA?
#1 threat to America: Pandas
Also, Tim Lincecum
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Oct 4, 2009 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Works Progress Administration. Put a lot of builders, writers and artists to work back in the first Great Depression. Or, evil socialism care of That Man (FDR).
--
Long ago they came west over the mountains, and I have rooted for them years uncounted; and together through many ages of this world we have fought the long defeat.
Chris Carpenter leads in amount of builders, writers and artists put back to work during the first Great Depression
Definite Cy Young material
#1 threat to America: Pandas
Also, Tim Lincecum
Adopted Father: Tyler Graham
Official McPokeMaster
Registered Velezbian and supporter of Fredemption
by GrahamCrakalaka on Oct 4, 2009 10:10 PM PDT up reply actions
win probability added
you know those funny graphs, but by player. it’s not very predictive, but it’s not a bad value stat.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
Tim deserves it, Carpenter will get it. Wainwright probably shouldn’t be considered, given that WINZ are irrelevant and he’s lower than Timmeh in K and lower than Carp in ERA. It’ll be a three-horse race because the voters are stupid people who think WINZ matter, but that doesn’t mean Wainwright should be in the discussion. Yes, he’s had a fantastic year, but so have plenty of other pitchers, and we’re not talking about them. And without the wins, Wainwright really doesn’t have much to go on.
Tim’s had a better year than Carpenter given the time Carp spent on the DL, mainly because that extra month of pitching meant Tim was running on that much less as the season wrapped up. An extra month of rest would probably have boosted Timmeh’s stats by quite a bit. Considering the great numbers across the board, and how he’s improved pretty much everywhere except in K’s, I find it hard to choose Carpenter.
But of course Carpenter’s 17 wins and 2.24 ERA will swing the vote his way, as will the fact that he played on a “winning team” that went to the playoffs; voters care about that for some reason (it’s the reason one idiot NY writer says Jeter should get the MVP over Mauer). It’s not fair, but it’s what’ll happen (and hopefully it’ll save the Giants some money in arb this winter).
I spent some time playing around with the numbers, adjusting for replacement innings, quality of competition, park factors, etc., and I’m pretty sure the correct ranking is this:
1. Lincecum
2. Carpenter
3. Vazquez, Wainwright, and Haren, basically tied.
Carpenter came out better than I thought he would, given the low inning total. It’s worth noting that he allowed only one unearned run all year, so his great ERA actually understates how good he was.
I am also interested in Lincecum’s CYA chances.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
He’s going to be a great Skateboard Champion, as long as he doesn’t scratch up the pool behind the rich people’s house.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
The first Chester Arthur fanboy ever.
yeah i don’t think the organization’s gonna let him skate after the kent “truck-washing” incident. reverse ollie anyone?
--
Long ago they came west over the mountains, and I have rooted for them years uncounted; and together through many ages of this world we have fought the long defeat.
Wow, that was one big chasm.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Oct 5, 2009 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions
That’s why you have to ollie over it.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
Sorry, I only ever read one of those books, couldn’t get the reference.
--
Long ago they came west over the mountains, and I have rooted for them years uncounted; and together through many ages of this world we have fought the long defeat.
Grant also occasionally does a choose-your-own-adventure-style blog post. If you haven’t seen one, it’s well worth searching the anals of the site for.
Personally, I enjoyed traveling with him on an journey through time.
And yes, I know it’s spelled annals.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Oct 6, 2009 8:14 AM PDT up reply actions
Liar
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
You’re right. As far as I know, everything is spelled anals.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Oct 6, 2009 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Carpenter’s performance last night really does prove one thing to me. Either he was having a bad day or it just proves to show that his month not playing really did do wonders to refresh and revitalize his performance (not that his numbers were terrible before) but if Tim had a month off he would have probably done better. Carpenter last night was looking kind of like Timmy did in the last month, still throwing pretty ok stuff but tired as shit
please giants...don't make me cry like I did in 02....
Well Timmy...you make me cry tears of joy.
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