The quest for a league average offense - How big changes can have no effect

by GiantFan on Oct 19, 2009 8:20 AM PDT Comment 32 comments

I thought that it'd be useful to contrast my last post with a post about how it's easy to spend a lot of money and make big changes only to find out that it makes no improvement to the team. Again, like last time, this is not a projection of what will happen, merely a look at the performance of the last couple of years.

Corner Infield - Are you really improving the offense?

The following analysis is purely looking at the offensive side of the equation. We all criticize our poor offense and one of the main aims this off-season should be trying to upgrade it. In order to do that though we will have to focus resources on that ares. The following is not meant to suggest that the additions are worthless or that we shouldn't make them, just that the may not actually improve the offense at all.

Ryan Garko. You can argue as to whether he's classed as an incumbent or not but he's the baseline with which I'm going to make comparisons. Over the last two seasons he's been worth 3.7 runs above average (all runs are taken per 500 AB). Over his career he has a wOBA of .347

Hank Blalock. I've not heard his name so much on here but it is one name that's come up in the past with regards to the Giants. Over the last 2 seasons he's been worth -1.3 runs above average. For his career he has a wOBA of .340. Difference = - 5 runs (- 0.07 career wOBA)
Adrian Beltre. His name often comes up and he's been a player I've been very interested in us acquiring previously. Obviously his value comes from his superb defense. Signing him would move Sandoval to 1B which would cause a drop in value. Over the last 2 seasons he's been worth -0.6 runs above average. For his career he has a wOBA of .335. Difference = - 4.3 runs (-0.012 career wOBA)
Chone Figgins. He's one of the bigger names on the free agency market this year and I've seen a few people who want us to bring him in. He's difficult to peg offensively as he's been very streaky over his career and again would involve moving Sandoval to 1B. Over the last two years he's been worth 6.8 runs above average. For his career he has a wOBA of .339. Difference = 3.1 runs (-0.08 career wOBA)

Now obviously the second two have defensive advantages and are better overall players but there's a very good chance that adding any of the above players wouldn't actually improve our offense at all. That's not to say that we should ignore them, but be aware that the money we'd be spending would be on run prevention and not towards improving our offense.

Outfield - Are you actually improving the team?

The following looks at the opposite side of the spectrum, the possibility of signing offensive players who give back the runs on defense. Again it's not to suggest that you don't want to spend resources on offensive players, but you have to be careful of wasting money on players who aren't going to improve the team with regards to winning games.

Fred Lewis. The incumbent example I'm going to use is everyones favourite. Over the last two seasons he's been worth 2.0 WAR (all WAR are taken per 500 AB due to variable opportunities).

Vladimir Guerrero. An old favourite. Had a down year offensively this season, but poor defense has hampered him in recent years. Over the last two seasons he's been worth 1.73 WAR (per 500 AB). Difference = - 0.27 WAR
Bobby Abreu. Recently turned down an extension with the Angels and a possible free agent. An welcome upgrade offensively but poor defense takes away a good portion of his value. Been worth 1.62 WAR over the last two seasons. Difference = - 0.38 WAR
Jermaine Dye. Mentioned often on here (as a player to avoid) as a free agent. Disappointing offense in two of the last three years and terrible defense make him not very valuable. Over the last two seasons he's been worth 0.73 WAR. Difference = - 1.27 WAR

Obviously improving the offense is important but defense needs considering otherwise the money you're spending may not actually be improving the team at all.

Conclusions

I guess the first important thing to note is not to spend decent money for marginal (or non-existent) upgrades. It's easy to get seduced by a potential offensive upgrade but that upgrade might not be as big as you'd hope (see Dye/Guerrero downturns) and may come with an even bigger cost on defense. The second conclusion to make is to make sure you know what you're paying for. There's nothing wrong with spending money on a Beltre or Figgins in order to help improve the teams run prevention. But also don't be surprised if you end up without upgrading the offense. That's the balancing act that is the tricky part of any of our off-season moves.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Abreu!

Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.

by cain1rstballothof on Oct 19, 2009 8:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I would be fine with Garko playing 1B if we got Holliday or a “good” bat via trade. Otherwise, I’d bet Panda will be playing there next year.

Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.

by cain1rstballothof on Oct 19, 2009 8:27 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

And how does it project for Bay?

Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.

by cain1rstballothof on Oct 19, 2009 8:29 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I discussed Bay in the previous post

Over the last two years he’s been an upgrade of 3.23 WAR over Lewis. That works out to around 0.82 WAR (per 500 AB)

Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!

by GiantFan on Oct 19, 2009 8:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why would a big RBI man want to play with these giants

Why would I want to come to a team that has such a low obp, if I am being paid for my RBI production, ie; Jason Bay, when there is never anyone on base to drive in, especially when the team is on the road.

by bradleybear on Oct 19, 2009 8:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Simple answer would be because we pay the more money than anyone else, but there’s other factors. For older players they’re more interested in what they’re going to get in their new contract (as opposed to possible future contracts). Also, thankfully, RBI only play a small part in how well paid players are these days.

Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!

by GiantFan on Oct 19, 2009 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just don’t trust the Giants Brass to ignore RBI for the most part. that’s probably why Molina will be back.

Bonds stands alone.

Neal before Zod!
Official Sponsor of the 1997 San Francisco Giants

by nostocksjustbonds on Oct 19, 2009 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey, wait a sec...

You only use Garko and Lewis as your baselines?

It appears that your underlying assumption is that these replacement players would mutually exclude the baseline player from playing at the same time (possibly because they outright replaced them on the roster?).

Without getting into all the many conceivable (and bizarre) lineups that could include baseline + replacement player(s), do you think the picture would be more clear if you used EACH of the potential starting OF and 1B/3B as baselines? Or maybe just FA/non-tender candidates? (i.e. Vlad/Abreu more likely to replace Winn than Lewis, etc.)

by KrazyKrabMeat on Oct 19, 2009 9:50 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

(BTW: interesting analysis, thank you!)

by KrazyKrabMeat on Oct 19, 2009 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I only used those two as the baseline as those are the two best internal players at their corresponding positions (1B and LF).

I find it unlikely that Garko would be kept around (or given much playing time anyway) if we signed Figgins/Beltre as they’d be taking all his AB.

I guess i could have chosen different OF to compare with but would any of those OF play alongside Lewis in the OF? They haven’t shown any interest in playing Lewis anywhere but LF (or at all) and those candidates are all butchers who should play in LF.

Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!

by GiantFan on Oct 19, 2009 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the assumption that I made was that you were speaking to the improvement of the offense as a whole, rather than improvement over individual players/components of the offense.

In my bird-brained view, it was puzzling why you would use 2 guys who had such little playing time (especially Garko) as benchmarks. You may as well have included [bullpen catcher] in this case. I think I agree with your general point though.

by KrazyKrabMeat on Oct 19, 2009 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think i was speaking for whether we’d be better of signing the above players or whether we’d be better simply going with the internal options we have (Lewis/Garko).

I used those two players as they’re the best internal options for the two positions i was discussing (LF and 1B). I didn’t want to compare them to our production from this year (as i discussed previously) because simply going with the best internal options would provide an upgrade there. The issue should be the exactly equivalent but is complicated by Bochy not using the best candidates last year.

Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!

by GiantFan on Oct 20, 2009 5:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I take it you are not currently infected with the Bowkermania flu?

"The part of the roster where most of the money is spent, though, is on free agents and guys acquired through trade — guys Sabean did play a big role in acquiring. And they are not good. When you get 2/5 of a pitching rotation for free, you would think you could do better with $76 million than to field the league’s worst offense."
-Taliesin September, 2009

by Lyle on Oct 21, 2009 6:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well i am quite interested in Bowker and would like to see him get a shot next year (i’d go with him and Lewis at the corners if we don’t acquire an outfielder)

Lewis is easier to compare with future additions though as you know what you’re getting with him whereas Bowker is more variable in possible outcomes. I think a better case for Bowker will come when projections come out but at this point it’s tricky to get a firm expectation for his performance.

Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!

by GiantFan on Oct 21, 2009 7:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It is not a flu.

/ sniffle sniffle

Who’s brain did you bring me?
Brain SabeanOranother.

by daveinexile on Oct 21, 2009 8:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

“It’s not a tumor.”

/obscure quote/

by Lyle on Oct 21, 2009 9:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Monotone voice

“You should not drink and bake.”

"It's too late now."

by ResDog on Oct 21, 2009 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I give . What is that from?

Who’s brain did you bring me?
Brain SabeanOranother.

by daveinexile on Oct 21, 2009 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If this is what I think it’s from, it should be “It’s not a tumah”

"All I know is right now, you comeback and do you dwell on that? I think you're man enough to take it, you're man enough to chew on it, to spit it out and you learn from it. ... I think winners let it go. I think losers dwell on it and talk about it all week and that screws you up for the next opportunity going forward." - Mike Singletary after the 49ers loss to the Vikings

by SFGuy on Oct 22, 2009 1:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Playing Lewis would improve our offense! Stupid Giants management.

Signing him would move Sandoval to 1B which would cause a drop in value.

Honestly, I don’t think we can say this with certainty. I know your reasoning for thinking it, but what it comes down to is how much, if at all, his defensive value increases. 1B is generally the worst fielding position in MLB, so when you change Pablo’s position from 3B to 1B, it stands to reason that he probably should see in increase in his defensive value (since 1B largely requires the same skill set as 3B which we know Sandoval has). Then again, Sandoval has a great arm and would be wasting that, so maybe he loses all the value his arm provides in the move. To me it’s just unclear whether his value will increase or decrease with a shift to 1B, though if I had to bet I’d say you’re probably right.

by Missing Barry on Oct 19, 2009 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also, if we sign Figgins, he should be playing 2B.

HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?

:-) :-) :-)

by Cookyman on Oct 19, 2009 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

True, Figgins at 2B is a different issue and far more logical.

Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!

by GiantFan on Oct 20, 2009 5:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, the positional adjustment from 3B to 1B is around 15 runs. If we say that his UZR this year is his “true level” and that he’s a -5 run 1B he’d need to be a +10 run 1B to make up the difference. That means he’d have to be the best defensive 1B in baseball and whilst i think he’d be better defensively i doubt he’d be that good.

Also, the question arises as to why a team in desperate need of a offense should be reducing the offensive potential of the team.

Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!

by GiantFan on Oct 20, 2009 5:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

15 runs…looking it up, indeed it is. That seems strange to me. Are teams not stashing good hitters (questionable gloves) at 3B these days? A team like the Giants (flyball pitchers, big outfield), I think, would be better off stashing a bad defensively player at 3B than corner OF (who’s positional adjustment is 10 runs worse than 3B). I’m surprised that 3B is on the same level as middle defensive spots (CF, 2B)…

I guess I just underestimated the difference in their positional adjustment. I think I’m on board with your case that he’d almost certainly lose value moving to 1B.

I think I’m beginning to realize I’m gonna need to see how these positional adjustments were derived for myself before I really buy into them as much as I did an hour ago…

by Missing Barry on Oct 20, 2009 7:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah basically the standard of hitting among 3B isn’t actually very high and is lower than perhaps you’d think. For reference this year the OPS for 3B was .757 compared to .752 for 2B or .749 for CF. The difference has been larger in previous years, and I’m guessing the reason is that teams are more defensive conscious and so there are less big bats at 3B these days.

That’s one of the reasons I’m very much against moving Sandoval from 3B at the moment (whilst he’s still a competent 3B). If you do you’re replacing a potential 1B (league average OPS of .846) with a potential 3B (league average OPS of .752) That’s a huge offensive deficit and one an offensively challenged team can’t really afford to make.

Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!

by GiantFan on Oct 20, 2009 7:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

nice post

a lot of it really isn’t new for regular MCCers (and logical Giants fans) but this is the perfect post for the front office and Giants fans who say “MOLINA TEH RIBBIEZ AN DINGERZZ”

by sfoakbay on Oct 20, 2009 7:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Hey GiantFan

You’re doing good work. No need for a pseudonym. Take pride.

Abreu is underrated because the ability to avoid making outs is underrated. Intuition tells me there’s something wrong with the formula. Perhaps it is not putting the full value on the extra 50-100 ABs he gives the team by extending innings.

The obvious way for the Giants to improve the offence is to put Sandoval behind the plate. It’s so obvious they probably haven’t thought about it.

by Walter Guest on Oct 24, 2009 5:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

The one drawback to putting Sandoval behind the plate full time is you just about guaranteed he bat is even more worn down in August & September. I am not sure taking the lone legit bat one the 25 man and "nerfing it" for a the pennant chase months is a such bright idea with the group of players the Giants have now.

Who’s brain did you bring me?
Brain SabeanOranother.

by daveinexile on Oct 27, 2009 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wouldn't have to be full time

They could have Posey and Sandoval split time between 3B and catching, playing both behind the plate about half the time. Both would stay fresh, and they’d rarely (if ever) have to put a Whiteside-type bat in the lineup.

But I do agree that the team doesn’t have nearly enough good bats that they need to make room for one more by making Sandoval the everyday catcher.

by taliesin on Oct 27, 2009 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am a lot friendlier to that idea.

I still would not mess with Sandoval much. He, not Rowand or Velez, is what will make the 2010 offense go. My current personal favorite is have Garko brush up enough to be a legit 3rd string catcher. That would give the Gaints some very intresting choices vs. LHP.

Who’s brain did you bring me?
Brain SabeanOranother.

by daveinexile on Oct 27, 2009 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I really don’t understand this Sandoval-to-C thing. A lot of people think we should be moving him to 1B right now because he can’t handle third. And you want to move him back to catcher? His bat is FAR too valuable to risk, and putting a heavy guy at C is a big risk. Besides, Posey seems perfectly capable of catching 130 games a year, and there’s no reason to think otherwise, so let’s play him there until someone comes up with one.

by quincy0191 on Oct 30, 2009 8:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bingo!

You have precisely identified something the Giants have consistently failed to understand: Little upgrades are usually a waste of money (not that the Giants don’t have lots of THAT).

Save the money for a big acquisition, be it via free agency or trade. If the Giants want to upgrade a “little,” sign more minor league contract-type guys such as Justin Miller and Brandon Medders last season. Will many of them work out as well as those two? Probably not, but at least the risk is low.

Jeremy Accardo was an exception to the rule, but some were even touting him as a potential closer, so he wasn’t exactly a bargain-basement pickup, either.

Moises Alou worked out — when he was healthy. Same with Ray Durham. But most of the Giants’ mid-priced acquisitions have worked out somewhere between horrible (Edgardo Alfonzo, Neifi Perez) to fair/OK (Marquis Grissom, Bengie Molina).

Save the money on the mid-priced guys and save up for a big bopper. I would offer Freddy Sanchez and Molina abritration if necessary to acquire Type A compensation, but I wouldn’t sign them long-term and would hope to avoid signing them for one year.

Randy is indeed gone with the Winn and hopefully the Giants will get a true first baseman, allowing them to trade or non-tender Ryan Garko. (If they don’t, at least the platoon of Ishikawa and Garko won’t be very expensive.)

It would be wonderful to get a big-bopper corner outfielder. I would target Ryan Braun, but I would be very surprised if he were available. Possibly Jermaine Dye if the Giants can find a legitimate, easily correctable reason why he fell off the face of the earth the second half of last season.

But realistically, and in keeping with spending only on a true big bopper, it is possible the Giants could come up with decent corner outfielders among Schierholtz, Bowker, Lewis, Torres and Velez. Perhaps the most serious problem with that group is that they’re overly left-handed at the plate.

Assuming Edgar Renteria bounces back or the Giants keep Freddy Sanchez (which they almost assuredly will), one could argue that the Giants might lack only a cleanup hitter. (Or worst-case, they might make Pablo Sandoval the cleanup hitter and find out they are missing all seven other hitters! ;)

Leadoff appears to be almost as much a weakness as cleanup. But while there were a lot of things wrong with Freddie Lewis last season, he got on base and has speed.

Renteria or more likley Sanchez are possibilitiies to hit second.

I think Buster Posey can be the #3 hitter, and even if the Giants don’t think he will be ready to start the season behind the plate, I hope they merely sign a cheap guy (preferably a lefty hitter) who could soon be his backup.

So the cleanup hitter comes from the big trade for Braun, Fielder or Gonzalez, right?

Pablo should be one of the best #5 hitters in the league if the Giants were to hit him there.

Surely Aaron Rowand, Nate Schierholtz or John Bowker can hit sixth, with another of them hitting seventh.

Renteria seems like he could make a pretty good #8 hitter. Or if Edgar bats second, maybe Eugenio Velez or Manny Burriss could hit 8th. That pair actually could form a nice platoon, in that Velez hits righties, while Burriss hits southpaws and can actually catch the ball.

And if the Giants can’t acquire a true cleanup hitter? Save the money and try again later. Don’t waste it on marginal improvements.

by sharksrog on Oct 28, 2009 11:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs