Evaluating Pitching and Hitting
So, I've been thinking and I want to get others thoughts on the subject. From a purely scouting perspective, it seems to me that pitching would be much, much easier to evaluate in a small sample compared to hitting.
What I mean is, it's pretty easy to see Runzler come up to the big leagues and throw fire from the left side with a nice slider (going off my memory here, which is sketchy in regards to Runzler). Obviously with control issues. We all could see that, no doubt Bochy/Sabean could see that.
However, with hitters, it would seem to be much harder to evaluate in a small sample. Posey, Bowker, (serial comma, bitches!) and Guzman, for example, could look really poor in a handful of ABs and that is all they have to go on. It's not quite the same as with pitchers, where you can physically see the stuff. Sure, they might have a good swing, or some other scouty stuff, but that doesn't really mean as much (at least in my mind).
Obviously, this touches on the complaint many of us have had this year with Bochy/Sabean: that they make decisions off of way too small samples and have no clue what stats/skills are important. I'm just wondering if you think this might be why they have no problem throwing young pitchers into the mix and won't do the same with young hitters. If not, please submit any ideas you may have. Or just correct any grammar mistakes I have made (seriously).
P.S. Sorry, I realize this topic has been done to death, but it's been gnawing at me for a while.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
0 recs |
16 comments
Comments
You spelled "srsly" wrong
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
by hairball on Oct 16, 2009 2:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I actually spelled evaluating wrong...I'm a moron
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
by marcello on Oct 16, 2009 5:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Watch Out! You Might Be Turning Into A Rainman.
Which according to many here at the McCoven is even worse then a “moron”.
by giantsrainman on Oct 16, 2009 7:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
GiantsRainMoron?
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
by baetown415 on Oct 16, 2009 8:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you threatening me?
I am the Slum Lord of the Grammar Sin Bin arround here!
Who’s brain did you bring me?
Brain SabeanOranother.
by daveinexile on Oct 17, 2009 7:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think you’re a moron. I just think you’re very passionate, a little nuts, and highly entertaining.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
by rotorueter on Oct 18, 2009 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I think it’s at least partially because most of our young “hitters” actually do suck quite a bit. Not all of them, mind you, but enough to poison the well from the Bochy/Sabean perspective.
As for why they’re so willing to play young pitchers, it’s because they’re basically forced to. Unlike young position players, who can be unceremoniously dumped on the bench to be “tutored” by veterans, the “baseball man” groupthink on pitching prospects seems to be that 1) starting prospects shouldn’t be sent to the major league bullpen, and 2) reliever need regular work. So as long as a young pitching prospect is on the roster, they’re going to get innings. Also, it helps that pitchers tend to get hurt so often, opening up opportunities, and that the modern usage pattern of relievers really forces teams to use everyone in the bullpen.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
by Bhaakon on Oct 16, 2009 3:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think it’s got a lot to do with how long you get to look at them for. Hitters get one at-bat every few innings, while pitchers typically throw to at least three batters in a row, usually more. So you get to see a variety of pitches, to a variety of hitters, in a variety of situations, but consecutively. That makes pitchers easier to evaluate: you can see how they’d throw to a left-handed contact hitter in a 1-2 count with runners on first and third and one out, then you can see what they’d throw to a right-handed power hitter in a 2-0 count with runners on first and third and two outs. But with hitters, you only get one look every few innings, and in too wide a variety of situations. Coming up in the first with a runner on second and two outs is a hell of a lot different than coming up in the third with no one on and one out.
Plus, with starters, you get to see them face a variety of batters a bunch of times. If your starter goes 8, they may see eight different hitters three times each, so you get a good idea of how they do against switch-hitters, against power hitters, and in a variety of counts and situations. But hitters may face the same power-throwing lefty four times in a game, and while the adaptations should be looked for, they’re basically going to approach that AB the same way each time. And the fact that our hitters aren’t getting consistent playing time to try and nail down an impression isn’t helping.
I think they were playing that way because they knew they had a consistent bullpen and an inconsistent offense, and instead of letting hitters develop a rhythm they were looking for someone to get hot and knock the crap out of the ball, instead of just being good. That makes some sense; it’s better to trust your offense in one guy who’s doing it all when your lineup is full of terrible hitters. But it didn’t work, obviously because you can’t force or predict hot streaks. As for the pitchers, they knew they had a solid pen and could let Runzler or Joaquin or Martinez get into trouble because they had someone else (Wilson, Affeldt, Romo, Medders) who could get them out of trouble. Not so much in the lineup.
So those are some sort of incoherent thoughts but whatever.
by quincy0191 on Oct 16, 2009 4:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
So those are some sort of
incoherent thoughts but whatever.
by sfoakbay on Oct 16, 2009 8:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What I mean is, it’s pretty easy to see Runzler come up to the big leagues and throw fire from the left side with a nice slider (going off my memory here, which is sketchy in regards to Runzler). Obviously with control issues. We all could see that, no doubt Bochy/Sabean could see that.
I disagree about control. I don’t think we can see if a pitcher has good control or not based on 8 innings. Even seeing “stuff” is hard, since things like velocity change from game to game. And it’s not just us – here’s what Jim Rice said about Greinke after watching him:
Zack Greinke didn’t really impress me last night. He pitched well and maybe I caught him on a bad night, but to me he didn’t seem dominant. Greinke has may have the lowest ERA in the AL since Pedro Martinez in 2000, but he doesn’t strike me as the dominant force that Pedro was during his statistical peak. Don’t get me wrong, Greinke pitched very effectively but he was not the unhittable beast on the mound that Pedro or Clemens (or even Johan Santana) were during their reign of dominance.
He only gave up two hits in 6 innings but struggled with his command and, with 5 strikeouts, it’s not like he was punching tickets up and down the Red Sox lineup.
He reminds me of a right-handed Roger Moret. He has that long and lean frame but good speed on his fastball and sporadic command.
Emphasis mine.
The first reaction would that Rice is an idiot. But that’s not fair. And even if he is – he was still one hell of a baseball player. He certainly knows more about playing baseball and probably scouting than any of us does. And he watched Greinke for 6 innings, and concluded that he has sporadic command (here are Roger Morat’s numbers, by the way).
He’s wrong. I know that it’s just his opinion, and he admits that Greinke might have had a bad night, but he’s still wrong. There is no reasonable defenition of "sporadic " that would include Greinke’s command. And maybe it’s not his fault. There is something fundamental about baseball that makes it practically impossible to judge a player based on a game or two.
HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?
:-) :-) :-)
by Cookyman on Oct 16, 2009 5:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
And it’s just as bad when you judge a hitter on a series of sporadic at-bats. And you don’t have to go far to find a definition of “sporadic” that fits the playing time of Bowker, Posey, Torres, and Garko, among others.
by quincy0191 on Oct 16, 2009 9:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They look for the wrong things in hitters?
Beats me….
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
by baetown415 on Oct 16, 2009 6:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I loves me some scouty stuff

Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below .500
We are at war with Los Angeles. We have always been at war with Los Angeles.
Lowering the Quality of Internet Discourse Since 1985™
by S.F. Giangst on Oct 17, 2009 1:43 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

by 

















