Did we underperfom or overperform expectations? - Pitching

In the previous post i set out to investigate whether we under-performed or over-performed our projections both from an individual and team perspective. In this post I'm going to undertake a similar analysis but instead looking at the pitching staff. It's a bit trickier with pitching as there are other factors to disentangle, but to do the analysis, I've looked at FIP.

The projections I've used are an average of the Marcel, CHONE and ZIPS projections again removing Marcel for players with limited major league experience. In order to keep consistent with the previous post, positive run differences correspond to an over-achievement. The pitchers are listed by number of innings.


Outperformed Their Projection

  • Tim Lincecum            FIP = 2.34, projected FIP = 3.02, Run difference =  17.0
  • Barry Zito                    FIP = 4.31, projected FIP = 4.59, Run difference =  6.0
  • Brain Wilson              FIP = 2.50, projected FIP = 3.78, Run difference =  10.3
  • Brandon Medders    FIP = 4.07, projected FIP = 4.77, Run difference =   5.3
  • Jeremy Affeldt           FIP = 3.59, projected FIP = 3.74, Run difference =   1.0
  • Merkin Valdez          FIP = 4.58, projected FIP = 4.90, Run difference =    1.8
  • Sergio Romo            FIP = 2.13, projected FIP = 4.00, Run difference =    7.1


    Underperformed Their Projection

    • Matt Cain                    FIP = 3.89, projected FIP = 3.74, Run difference =   -3.6
    • Jonathon Sanchez:  FIP = 4.17, projected FIP = 3.99, Run difference =   -3.3
    • Randy Johnson        FIP = 4.91, projected FIP = 3.97, Run difference =   -9.8
    • Bob Howry                 FIP = 3.85, projected FIP = 3.84, Run difference =  -0.1
    • Justin Miller               FIP = 4.91, projected FIP = 3.65, Run difference =  -7.9
    • Brad Penny               FIP = 4.35, projected FIP = 4.31, Run difference =   -0.2
    • Joey Martinez           FIP = 4.86, projected FIP = 4.64, Run difference =   -0.7
    • Ryan Sadowski        FIP = 4.72, projected FIP = 4.44, Run difference =   -0.9

    A quick look shows that it's more balanced that the offense, with around half under-performing their projections and around half over-performing them. If you total up the difference then you can a over-performance of the projections by around 22 runs. Like in the offensive case, an adjustment is needed when we're talking about the team as a whole. A quick back of the envelope calculation suggests doing so means we outperformed our component statistics by around 9 runs (taking into account defensive numbers from UZR).

    That works out to an over-performance of around 30 runs in total. if we were to combine that with the offensive numbers then we performed very similarly (in terms of RA/RS) to what the projections suggested in pre-season. Converting that into an expected win record we ended up winning 2-3 games more than projected.

    This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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