In the latest post on Extra Baggs, the question is raised as to whether we underperformed on offensive? Now, it's difficult to say whether we underperformed because there's uncertainties over the true talent level. One way of looking into this question is using the pre-season projections to see how well we matched our expectations both individually or as a team.
To do this i'm going to list every non-pitcher who had more than 50 PA's and compare his projection with his performance. To calculate the projections I've taken an average of the Marcel, CHONE, ZIPS and Oliver projections, choosing not to use the Bill James one as it breeds controversy. For players with minimal experience prior to this year I've taken the average of the last 3 as Marcel doesn't include minor league numbers. The players are listed by PA's and as well as actual and projected wOBA I've also added the corresponding run difference over the amount of Plate appearances that player received.
Outperformed Their Projection
- Pablo Sandoval: wOBA = .396, projected wOBA = .335, Run difference = 33.6
- Juan Uribe: wOBA = .351, projected wOBA = .302, Run difference = 18.4
- Andres Torres: wOBA = .379, projected wOBA = .314, Run difference = 9.6
Underperformed Their Projection
- Randy Winn: wOBA = .302, projected wOBA = .335, Run difference = -16.9
- Aaron Rowand: wOBA = .323, projected wOBA = .337, Run difference = -15.4
- Bengie Molina: wOBA = .308, projected wOBA = .321, Run difference = -5.9
- Edgar Renteria: wOBA = .283, projected wOBA = .332, Run difference = -21.5
- Travis Ishikawa: wOBA = .313, projected wOBA = .329, Run difference = -5.1
- Fred Lewis: wOBA = .327, projected wOBA = .334, Run difference = -2.0
- Eugenio Velez: wOBA = .309, projected wOBA = .315, Run difference = -1.5
- Nate Schierholtz: wOBA = .301, projected wOBA = .346, Run difference = -12.1
- Emmanuel Burriss: wOBA = .258, projected wOBA = .294, Run difference = -7.9
- Eli Whiteside: wOBA = .266, projected wOBA = .277, Run difference = -1.3
- Rich Aurilia: wOBA = .236, projected wOBA = .318, Run difference = -9.5
- Ryan Garko: wOBA = .289, projected wOBA = .342, Run difference = -5.9
- Freddy Sanchez: wOBA = .274, projected wOBA = .321, Run difference = -4.4
- John Bowker: wOBA = .271, projected wOBA = .320, Run difference = -3.1
- Matt Downs: wOBA = .231, projected wOBA = .322, Run difference = -4.7
- Kevin Frandsen: wOBA = .182, projected wOBA = .323, Run difference = -6.6
There are a number of interesting things to note one of which is it's clear than we had more players under-performing (16/19) their projections than over-performing (3/19). If you total up the differences you end up with -62.0 for the team as a whole. If you're dealing with the team as a whole, you have to include the variance in team totals and individual components. According to calculations we outperformed our components by around 30 runs, so that means we under-performed our offensive expectations by around 30 runs.
On the whole a difference of 30 runs over a whole team isn't a huge amount and shows that the projections on a team wide scale were pretty accurate. Of course that tells us how we under-performed our pre-season expectations this year but it doesn't tell us anything about how we'll perform next season. The projections for these players next year will, on the whole be reduced due to their poor performances this year. There will be a lot of changes in terms of personnel and playing time next year and it'll be interesting to see how the projections are when they come out. I'll done a similar analysis for the pitching which I'll post in a day or two.