How Much Will Tim Lincecum Be Paid In His First Arbitration Eligable Season?
by giantsrainman on Oct 12, 2009 10:37 PM PDT
44 comments
Here are some facts to consider before you cast your vote.
The record for a first time arbitration eligable starting pitcher of $4.35M was first set by Dontrelle Willis after he finished 2nd in the 2005 NL Cy Young race. Dontrelle went 22-10 in 236.1 innings with a 2.63 ERA and 11/55/170 HRs/BBs/SOs. This record was tied last year by Cole Hamels after he won the 2008 World Series MVP. Cole went 14-10 in 227.1 regular season innings with a 3.10 ERA and 28/53/196 HRs/BBs/SOs.
The top 5 salaries for first year arbitration eligalbe starting pitchers last year were as follows:
Cole Hamels' $4.35M with a Type A Ellis Ranking of 92.784 which only trailed Sabathia and Webb amongst NL starting pitchers.
Feliz Hernandez's $3.8M with a Type A Ellis Ranking of 87.791 which was 6th amongst all AL starting pitchers.
Ervin Santana's $3.8M with just a Type B Ellis Ranking but he finished 7th in AL Cy Young voting.
Justin Verlander's $3.675M with a Type A Ellis Ranking of 78.779 which was 13th amongst all AL starting pitchers.
Paul Maholm's $3.5M with just a Type B Ellis Ranking and the Pirates as usual were just out of their minds.
Tim Lincecum is likely coming off of a 3rd place finish in the 2009 NL Cy Young race that followed his 2008 Cy Young Tim is ranked by Ellis as Type A with a 95.755 rating which currently only trails Johan Santana amongst NL starting pitchers.
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Ya know...ignorance really IS bliss.
Well - I do , anyway.
by victor frankenstein on Oct 12, 2009 10:56 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
A lot.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
by Natto on Oct 12, 2009 11:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
a bajillion dollars
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
by jponry on Oct 12, 2009 11:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
sounds fair to me
Adopted brother of Jason Jarvis.
by j14 on Oct 13, 2009 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
so much
that we will all be required to make donations.
by Tim LinCyYoung on Oct 12, 2009 11:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Ding , Dong , The Dinger's DEAD!
Ya know...ignorance really IS bliss.
Well - I do , anyway.
by victor frankenstein on Oct 12, 2009 11:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
by Natto on Oct 13, 2009 12:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
28.34 M/yr, easy.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Oct 13, 2009 12:00 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
ONE MEEEELION DOLLARS.
MUHAHA MUHAHA MUHAHA
MUHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Congrats to my soul mate and birth brother Zach Wheeler on being drafted into greatness. Should I just buy my Wheeler jersey now, or wait till my next birthday?
by TexasRanger on Oct 13, 2009 12:06 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
/arbitration panel busts up laughing at Tim and his agent
Congrats to my soul mate and birth brother Zach Wheeler on being drafted into greatness. Should I just buy my Wheeler jersey now, or wait till my next birthday?
by TexasRanger on Oct 13, 2009 12:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So much money, they will have to make the money out of Barry Zito.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Oct 13, 2009 12:10 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You know, his face is already on the 126 million dollar bill.
Meet my new son: Sundrendy Windster, on the Curacao-SF express (via Arizona).
by EliminateMe on Oct 13, 2009 8:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’s awesome.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Oct 13, 2009 8:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sets a new record for Timmehness
Yeah, anyway, you have to go back to Doc Gooden to find a pitcher with more impact over his first 2+ years.
Tim will get paaaaaaiiiiiid.
Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below .500
We are at war with Los Angeles. We have always been at war with Los Angeles.
Lowering the Quality of Internet Discourse Since 1985™
by S.F. Giangst on Oct 13, 2009 7:30 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Gooden was amazing. I used to kind of like the Mets as a child, because I thought of them as what the Giants left behind to NY. And I played on the Mets as a little leaguer.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Oct 13, 2009 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just a note – neither Hamels nor Willis actually went to an arbitration hearing. Willis agreed to a one year deal for $4.35M (with $.2M in incentive clauses) with the Marlins,. Hamels $4.35M was part of a 3 year $20.5M deal with some incentive clauses thrown in. If Lincecum actually goes to arb I’d expect him to get more than he would if he agreed to a contract before then with the Giants.
The criteria for arbitration includes a section for Awards, so that Cy is gonna make Timmy some money (as will the second one if he wins it). When Howard went to arb and won his baseline was Cabrera from the year before, and Howard got $10M to Cabrera’s $7.4M. Based on all this, I’m expecting around $8M or so, maybe a little more if he actaully goes all the way to arb and a little less if he and the Giants come to terms.
by Missing Barry on Oct 13, 2009 8:54 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I’ve heard he could get up to $15 million.
FIRE BRUCE BOCHY NOW!!!!!!
AND TAKE BRIAN SABEAN WITH HIM!!!!!
by 49er16 on Oct 13, 2009 9:40 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Stuffing envelopes!
"We're in this thing!" My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman, "Sweet Jesus" Guzman and Jesus H. Guzman.
by Goofus on Oct 13, 2009 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Medical Billing from Home !! You could make up to $1000.00 per week !
My adopted son Matt Downs . Ranked as the 24th best prospect in the Giants farm system by Baseball America !!
by nvsfg on Oct 14, 2009 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I could get up to that too, but I don’t see what his penis has to do with how much money he’s going to be making.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Oct 13, 2009 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fangraphs sez he was worth $37M last year so let’s give him that.
Also, no way he finishes 3rd behind Carp AND Wainwright. At worst he’s a close second.
by quincy0191 on Oct 13, 2009 2:10 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You Are Only Right About What Should Happen In The Cy Young Voting.
However, the voters value wins and playoff appearances too much to actually vote this way. Both Wainright and Carpender will finish above Timmy in the voting.
As for Timmy’s Fangraphs Value, this means zero/zip/nada/squat to the arbitration process. Timmy will set the record for a starting pitcher but he will not double it. Howard’s MVP only allowed him to add 35% to Cabrera’s posiiton player record. Timmy may add more then 35% but he ain’t coming close to adding 100%.
by giantsrainman on Oct 13, 2009 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins or comes in 2nd. Carp and Wainright may split the 1st place vote
I R 5
by say hey nation on Oct 14, 2009 7:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay, I thought it was pretty clear I was joking, but I guess you didn’t realize that. I’m still betting he gets $8M+, either through arbitration or on a long-term deal.
Also, voters aren’t entirely stupid; some of them will give props to Lincecum for his NL-leading strikeout total and for having the 2nd lowest ERA. As for playoff appearances, Carp went 5 innings and gave up 4 ER. Wainwright had a good outing, but he shouldn’t finish any higher than 3rd given his higher ERA and lower K total. Carp’s got that month of missed starts going against him. I expect Lincecum to either make it close for Carpenter or win it.
by quincy0191 on Oct 15, 2009 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
$10M would not shock me in the slightest.
Plotting the ultimate demise of Gore51 (never met him, I dunno he could be swell) so as to adopt Kyle Nicholson.
"I don’t know much about sabre-stats but there’s nothing better than white tea and poptarts first thing in the morning" - tk
by Whiteteaandpoptarts on Oct 13, 2009 3:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn’t be shocked necessarily, but if $10M was the over/under, I’d bet under pretty confidently…
by Missing Barry on Oct 13, 2009 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
IAWTC
6.5 to 7 as things stand now, add 500k for a 3rd or not-so-close 2nd in the 2009 CYA, 8 to 8.5 if he wins the CYA.
Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below .500
We are at war with Los Angeles. We have always been at war with Los Angeles.
Lowering the Quality of Internet Discourse Since 1985™
by S.F. Giangst on Oct 13, 2009 9:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I’m basically in the same boat. It also depends on whether he actually goes through the whole process or not. I figure he’ll probably get $1M or so extra by actually making it to arbitration rather than agreeing to terms with the Giants (basically I think he’ll win in arb, both Howard and Cabrera did).
by Missing Barry on Oct 14, 2009 6:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lifetime supply of Choco Tacos and beanies
by kimmyg on Oct 14, 2009 1:01 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
My crystalball
Timmeh’s agent asks for 10 mil (Ryan Howard territory)
Brass goes with 6.
Settled at 8 million before arbitration.
by Giant Voodoo on Oct 14, 2009 11:03 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Lince Lockdown
Just buyout his arb years, Neukom! He’s been ridiculously good since he developed that nasty changeup and is obviously a fan favorite not only here in SF but in every baseball town (equals more $$$ for the Giants).
Win the inning.
by Scooter Ellis on Oct 14, 2009 11:55 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Doesn’t make sense for either side. Lincecum should get more money than that, and the Giants don’t have much incentive to buy out all of his team controlled, arbitration years without buying out any of his FA years. My estimation is something along the lines of 5 years $68M makes more sense for both sides. Maybe an option year or two added to that, but that complicates things…
by Missing Barry on Oct 14, 2009 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oopsy...
I brain-farted on there being actually 4 more years of arb. Yep, I’d say 5 for 70 if it convinced Timbo to accept two 15mil club-otion years tacked on the end of that…not saying he’s weakening, but one wonders if the back tweakage/ gassing at the end of the year is making him think more toward a stable future.
by sanfranfreakshow on Oct 14, 2009 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hopefully, buying out one or more of his FA years would be nice. Can’t buy out too many though just because of the additional risk pitchers have vs. hitters…
by Missing Barry on Oct 14, 2009 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was just thinking about this again...
How many 5+ yr pitching contracts at top $$ have ever resulted in a good value? Maddux? Lord. Of last off-season’s, I’d rank’em Greinke>Lester>Hamels. Serious case of FOMO (fear of missing out) for us.
Now that Lincecum’s at max value already, I’m not sure I see how there is anything more than marginal value to be gained on giving out a long-term contract at this point. Hometown Discount Time! We’ll throw in some Goorin Bros. beanies, Timmeh. Eh?
by sanfranfreakshow on Oct 14, 2009 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I say we try and lock him up for a LONG deal, like 8-10 years. If we can get him to agree to, say 9 years/$120M, that’s a pretty big payout to Timmeh, while being reasonable and sensible for the team. Pitchers carry a lot of risk, yes, but then again Santana got a 6 year/$140M deal, so even if Timmeh only pitches six of those nine years we beat the top contract (Sabathia’s is longer and for more but at less per year). We can use these arb years as leverage; buy out all his arb and a bunch of his FA in one shot and we’ll probably get a lower price. Besides, if there’s one pitcher I’d feel comfortable giving this kind of deal to it’s Lincecum: he’s been lights-out since he showed up, consistent and effective in terms of ability and adaptation, and doesn’t have much of an injury history (it hasn’t been that long, but still).
by quincy0191 on Oct 15, 2009 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Simply put, I would never give a pitcher a 9 year contract. If Lincecum put up 32 complete game shutouts this year I wouldn’t give him a 9 year contract. There’s just too much risk.
by Missing Barry on Oct 15, 2009 5:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand there’s a risk. But you have to look at what you pay for what you get, not just what you get. Like I said, if he misses three entire years on a nine-year contract worth $120M, that still six years at $20M a year, which if he pitches like Timmy he’s worth. Three years is a lot to miss even for a pitcher; even super-fragile Carpenter hasn’t missed that much in ten years.
My point is that saying “I would never give a pitcher a 9 year contract” is pretty ridiculous. If you get him for cheap, if you have to give him that to sign him (Sabathia got 8…), if he’s pitched 15 years without missing a start, etc. There are any number of reasons why a long contract for a pitcher is perfectly reasonable, and I think Lincecum qualifies for several.
by quincy0191 on Oct 16, 2009 11:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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