Final Regular Season BtB Power Rankings
Better than only 1 AL team.
Not better than the Royals. Really?
5 months ago
Giant among Angels
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Royals better than the Giants? Those are the two teams I watched most in 2009, and I say: no way. They seriously need to recalibrate the difference between the NL and AL in figuring those rankings.
by 2X2L on Oct 11, 2009 8:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I've been commenting over there
This stuff pisses me off, and not because I’m a Giants fan, but because you simply can’t compare across what are essentially 2 different sports. There’s just not any real way to measure the vast, rippling effect of a rule difference as big as the DH.
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
by hairball on Oct 13, 2009 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Having a discussion with some of the BtB guys at RoyalsReview here. Not a lot of willingness so far on the part of the FanGraphs/BtB crowd to consider any reservations seriously. Either one accepts the analysis as “true” or one requires remedial instruction, repeatedly.
Like Missing Barry below, I think problems with the system become amplified with teams that possess few talents in certain areas — in particular, the Royals’ offense, defense, and baserunning were all really horrible, but they all get the same league translation as everything else in the AL. Another way to get at the question: is replacement level in the two leagues as disparate as the overall accumulated talent? Why would it be?
by 2X2L on Oct 13, 2009 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I finally figured out the crux of my problem with their argument
They keep saying the AL is vastly superior. Here’s one of my latest comments:
You’re saying that if you flipped the DH rule to the NL and took it away from the AL, and left everything else the same, the AL would still be magically superior? Because if not, then you are comparing apples to oranges, and if so, then you have to explain to me the magic, considering both leagues draw on the same talent pool.
Basically, you can’t assign this “better” quality to the AL without acknowledging that it’s rule-based, and not talent-based. And once you acknowledge that, is it really “better” anymore? I hope xanthan weighs in on this.
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
by hairball on Oct 13, 2009 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Someone just replied that "It's the money"
I’m not buying that. The Yankees having the biggest payroll does not make the Royals better than the Giants. Such thinking is an extension of the mistake that people make that money equals superiority. As we’ve seen every season of late, the Yankees are not automatic WS winners every year. Heck, last year, IIRC, they didn’t even make the playoffs.
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
by hairball on Oct 13, 2009 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you really arguing that there’s no correlation between having a high payroll and fielding a good team?
HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?
:-) :-) :-)
by Cookyman on Oct 13, 2009 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not at all
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
by hairball on Oct 13, 2009 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Than I don’t get it. If the AL has more money (I don’t if that’s true), wouldn’t you expect AL teams to generally be better?
HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?
:-) :-) :-)
by Cookyman on Oct 13, 2009 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You haven’t actually explained why you think the DH is relevant. In interleague play, either both teams have it, or neither one does. How does that give the AL team an advantage?
And let’s say AL teams are better because of the DH. So? Again, how is this relevant?
No one is claiming that the AL in inherently better than the NL. Just that, over the passed 5-6 years, the average AL team has been a bit better than the average NL team. Is it really that hard to believe? I mean, if you randomly divided 30 teams into two groups of 14 and 16, odds are that one group would be a bit better than the other. It’s pretty logical.
I’m sure, by the way, that at some point or another, the NL was a bit better than the AL. Maybe 10 years ago, maybe 50. Who knows. I don’t really see why it matters.
HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?
:-) :-) :-)
by Cookyman on Oct 13, 2009 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, the folks at BtBS are definitely claiming that
They have repeatedly called the AL the superior league, and made these rankings completely dependent on that philosophy. They are literally skewing the results to reflect that notion, which is why I think their approach to be backward.
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
by hairball on Oct 13, 2009 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"think their approach to be backward"?
My brain working weird is morning this.
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
by hairball on Oct 13, 2009 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And, when you challenge that notion by looking at performances
they tell you that you can’t introduce any numbers that haven’t already been adjusted for the difference in the two leagues.
So there’s really no basis for debate. Meeting adjourned.
In the end, the ranking system provides no basis for any useful prediction — in fact there’s no result that can be tested. I say let those who are so inclined have fun with it while they may.
by 2X2L on Oct 13, 2009 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, you see, this is simply not true.
Read this, this, and this . And this.
HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?
:-) :-) :-)
by Cookyman on Oct 13, 2009 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Those are the links I was unsuccessfully trying to find. Thanks for saving me further effort…
by Missing Barry on Oct 13, 2009 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What's not true?
That the BtB guys aren’t swayed by individual and team performance numbers that aren’t already adjusted to account for the difference in leagues, when what we’re discussing the flaws in the system of adjustment, or
That the BtB ranking system provides no result that can be tested?
I didn’t say anything about whether the AL is actually superior or by how much overall, which seems to be the subject of your response.
by 2X2L on Oct 13, 2009 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought that “So there’s really no basis for debate. Meeting adjourned” means that there’s no basis for a debate on whether or not the AL is better, and by how much, which is what we’re talking about.
HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?
:-) :-) :-)
by Cookyman on Oct 13, 2009 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, that’s part of what’s being talked about, in connection with various ideas being batted around that may explain some of the specifics of the BtB rankings that ring less than true.
My apologies for jumping into the middle of the discussion you’re having with hairball here with vague references to stuff that’s simultaneously being discussed elsewhere.
by 2X2L on Oct 13, 2009 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That statement is 3 years old. Anything changed since then?
It’s consistent with my suggestion for why the BtB rankings overvalue the Royals relative to the Giants — they’re both very meagre in talent in an area in which the AL is superior overall (offense), but the Royals get the league translation advantage nonetheless, and the Giants are in fact superior in an area in which the leagues are closer to parity (pitching), but of course the Royals get the overall league translation advantage nonetheless.
by 2X2L on Oct 13, 2009 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That statement is 3 years old. Anything changed since then?
I don’t now. NL hitters are hitting better against NL pitchers than against AL pitchers, FWIW.
I don’t understand the second paragraph.
HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?
:-) :-) :-)
by Cookyman on Oct 13, 2009 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The same translation is applied to all estimated “runs”, regardless of the actual disparity between leagues in the area those runs measure: offense, pitching, or defense. If the disparity in talent between leagues isn’t roughly equivalent in each area, the uniform translation results in distortion of “true value”. The above posits that the relative ranking of the Royals and Giants would have been affected by such a distortion.
by 2X2L on Oct 13, 2009 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plus the fact that not all AL and NL teams are affected by a disparity, assuming there is one, equally. The AL East is clearly the best division in baseball – so AL East teams suffer from having to play each other so often more than a Royals team for having to play the Al Central, which is not very good, often…
by Missing Barry on Oct 13, 2009 7:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
they’re both very meagre in talent in an area in which the AL is superior overall (offense), but the Royals get the league translation advantage nonetheless, and the Giants are in fact superior in an area in which the leagues are closer to parity (pitching), but of course the Royals get the overall league translation advantage nonetheless.
Tha’ts irrelevant. The league adjustment is a strength of schedule adjustment, it has nothing to do with the construction of Royal’s roster. The fact that the Royals have a crap lineup does nothing to change the quality of their competition (if anything, it makes the competition stronger, since the Royals can’t play themselves). There are issues with a flat league adjustment, but the one identify is not among them.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
by Bhaakon on Oct 13, 2009 11:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Irrelevant to strength of schedule issues. Not irrelevent to an assessment of the ranking system.
To translate performance across leagues, the system applies a correction for an effect measured in the aggregate to specific entities and not to the aggregate. The results of this kind of application are bound to lead to silliness in individual cases. Example: the Giants’ ballpark suppresses home runs by lefties in the aggregate by x%, so perhaps if I apply a correction to Bonds’ home run numbers at home I should expect to get a truer picture of his performance. But that’s not what such a translation yields: in fact there’s no evidence that the park affected Bonds specifically to anywhere near the same degree as the league overall. The translated numbers for Bonds are bunk.
So, my question is: why should I assume that applying a uniform translation to all teams, regardless of construction, when normalizing performance across leagues? How do I know that some types of performances will be suppressed or amplified differently from others?
I believe a team’s areas of strength relative to the league’s areas of disparity would matter. I doubt that there are a sufficient number of interleague games to measure any subtleties of effect, however, so I’m not expecting any light to be shed on the question.
Anyway, a lot of words on what’s essentially a trifle.
by 2X2L on Oct 14, 2009 5:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can't point you to a source...
But I was under the opposite assumption — position players comparable, but the AL pitcher is better than NL pitching. (Which certainly makes sense when NL pitchers get to face other pitchers, but their average ERA isn’t significantly lower than the AL ERA.)
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by Sky Kalkman on Oct 14, 2009 7:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I could be convinced of that. Those 2006 studies showed that the disparity changed dramatically between the early part of the decade and, say, 2005, so it would not be inconsistent with those findings for it to have changed again — not just in magnitude but in composition as well — since then.
by 2X2L on Oct 14, 2009 7:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well I dunno what it’s like in the present, those THT articles are a few years old by now. It’s kinda funny cause I brought those links over here, but I got them from you I think from a conversation over at Fangraphs…
by Missing Barry on Oct 14, 2009 9:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They’re not skewing anything. Read the articles I linked to a few comments down. Or just read the 4th link, if you don’t have the time.
HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?
:-) :-) :-)
by Cookyman on Oct 13, 2009 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And by “a few comments down”, I mean in the comment above.
HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?
:-) :-) :-)
by Cookyman on Oct 13, 2009 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There is a valid point as to how much the DH affects their calculations. That said, I do believe there is a talent discrepency between the leagues currently. I also believe most of that talent discrepency comes from the AL East. This would have some carryover affect to the rest of the AL, since they have to play the AL East, but one league adjustment for the AL and NL is clearly not appropriate and they’ve acknowledged in the comments that more works needs to be done.
by Missing Barry on Oct 13, 2009 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have two problems with the league adjustments. One is that it turns the otherwise useful rankings into a theoretical construct and so isn’t especially useful in comparing with what actually happens. The second problem is that it seems like a half-baked way of dealing with strength of schedule. If you’re going to correct for the situation in which teams are found then do it completely by testing the quality of the division or strength of schedule. In the Royals/Giants example it’s clear that we were in the hardest division (in the NL) whilst they were in the easiest (in the AL) yet no corrections are made for that.
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by GiantFan on Oct 14, 2009 2:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think eventually we’ll see those corrections – it just takes a lot of effort.
by Missing Barry on Oct 14, 2009 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Except in situation at bats.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
by Bhaakon on Oct 12, 2009 12:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Royals = AL
Giants = NL
AL > NL
Therefore Royals > Giants! It’s simple maths!
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
by GiantFan on Oct 12, 2009 4:05 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The Royals would win the World Series if they were in the NL.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
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by Natto on Oct 12, 2009 11:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Royals in the NL= 1927 New York Yankees
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
by rotorueter on Oct 13, 2009 8:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That doesn’t make sense! We all know the 1927 Yankees won the WS and that an NL team cannot beat an AL team…so your point sucks
I R 5
by say hey nation on Oct 13, 2009 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Everyone knows the NL is the easiest division in baseball. Duh!
"I never watched baseball on TV. It's slow and boring. I'm not a fan. Never was." - Jeff Kent
by Yoyo on Oct 12, 2009 8:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
NL West*
I fail this morning.
"I never watched baseball on TV. It's slow and boring. I'm not a fan. Never was." - Jeff Kent
by Yoyo on Oct 12, 2009 8:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wonky divisional adjustment.
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
by oldjacket on Oct 12, 2009 8:47 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The Giants aren’t worse than the Royals, Diamondbacks, Brewers, White Sox, or A’s. It’s funny how much they defend their ranking system in the comment sections when it’s very clearly flawed.
The very bad man traded my son...So now I'd like you all to meet my new son, Ryan "Aaron" Garko...Dammit it's just not the same!
by boonitez on Oct 12, 2009 9:13 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
BILLY BEAN IZ A GENESIS
"he walked 18; new league record! Struck out 18, another new league record! He also hit the sportswriter, the PA announcer, the bull mascot twice..."
by i did my job on Oct 12, 2009 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
by Natto on Oct 12, 2009 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Man I wish sega mad consoles still
I R 5
by say hey nation on Oct 12, 2009 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I had one of those.
"All I know is right now, you comeback and do you dwell on that? I think you're man enough to take it, you're man enough to chew on it, to spit it out and you learn from it. ... I think winners let it go. I think losers dwell on it and talk about it all week and that screws you up for the next opportunity going forward." - Mike Singletary after the 49ers loss to the Vikings
by SFGuy on Oct 13, 2009 12:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Man, I was sticking cartridges into other cartridges into consoles that were stuck into other consoles. Those were crazy times, my friend.
by chilibean_3 on Oct 13, 2009 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
BAM!
The Tower of Power™!

Sonic 3 + Sonic & Knuckles x 2 + Game Genie + cleaning cart + Master System converter + 32X + second-generation Genesis + second generation Sega CD
You wouldn’t actually be able to play that though.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
by Natto on Oct 13, 2009 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still have mine.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
by Natto on Oct 13, 2009 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But I have the first generation version.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
by Natto on Oct 13, 2009 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A’s even outrank 3 playoff teams and the near-playoff Tigers.
How in the world do the Giants end up worse than the D-Backs? Giants slightly outperformed (by Pythagorean record), Blanks underperformed, but even so the Giants come out way ahead (86-76 vs 75-87). And how much adjustment can there be for teams in the same division?
Meet my new son: Sundrendy Windster, on the Curacao-SF express (via Arizona).
by EliminateMe on Oct 12, 2009 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Much of the Giants "luck" comes from hitting well in the clutch.
Without that clutch performance they would have scored about 30 fewer runs. It counts in the standings, but BtB ignores it when measuring team strength.
Justin’s throwing some comments together on all 30 teams, and I have a feeling he’ll give some extra attention to the strange rankings, like the Giants. Keep an eye out this week.
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by Sky Kalkman on Oct 12, 2009 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve had discussions about this before, but I think there are some problems with the assumptions made by BtB’s calculations. I think calculations derived from league averages may not actually be linear like assumed (and like most teams seem to behave), and when you move out to the extreme with a team like the Giants (awesome run prevention, awful run scoring), some of the calculations break down. For most teams it will work, but I think while the Giants were somewhat lucky, it’s not nearly as pronounced as your guys calculations think it is.
by Missing Barry on Oct 13, 2009 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Biggest problem?
Not nearly all of the DH’s consequences are measurable.
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
by hairball on Oct 13, 2009 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I do believe the DH gives the AL an advantage in interleague and WS play. I don’t see why the “consequences” of the DH can’t be measured, though?
by Missing Barry on Oct 13, 2009 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am with you on the whole "on the extremes the formula breaks down" hypotheses. It will be interesting what happens with squads like the ’09 Giants & ’09 M’s going forward.
Who’s brain did you bring me?
Brain SabeanOranother.
by daveinexile on Oct 13, 2009 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Take that, sabean/bochy and your “situational hitting” complaints.
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by raisingcain on Oct 13, 2009 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The “situational hitting” complaint has never been serious, it’s a caerfully considered ploy to hide Sabean’s incompetence in assembling a roster. Whenever Sabean says “situational hitting” he really means “blame the players, ignore my incompetence”.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
by Bhaakon on Oct 13, 2009 11:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
STATZ!
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
by rotorueter on Oct 12, 2009 9:22 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
WTF?
"Being a McCoven is like being a member of the Green party. It’s powerlessness is part of the appeal." - oldjacket
by scout6 on Oct 12, 2009 12:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I disregard everything in those rankings
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Also, Tim Lincecum
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Oct 12, 2009 4:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I’d discard the flat league adjustment, because it makes no allowance for the unbalanced schedule or interleague play, but I wouldn’t discard the component pythag record (which is still quite unkind to the Giants).
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
by Bhaakon on Oct 12, 2009 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
























