I’ll say 73 or 4.

85 wins. I think if Johnson stays healthy, our rotation and our bullpen would almost compensate for our miserable offense. And also, if you replace Omar and Joe Castle’s offensive numbers this year with Renteria and Pablo, our offense looks miles ahead of last year. That’s two new productive hitters in spaces where there used to be free out slots in the lineup.

If the Renteria "d" is declining less quickly then I think or his bat recovers quicker or …..
If Frandsen plays and shows he is as healthy as 2007 or …
If Rock Head and resist the urge to play Roberts in front of Nate or …
If Rock Head can rest Molinia more then 1 day a week.

 Those are all variables that a few weeks of playing time should answer. If any of them prove well then I’ll bounce my estimate upwards.

2009 Dodgers Rotation Starts Innings FIP FipRuns
Chad Billingsley 30 193 3.66 78
Hiriki Kuroda 31 192 4.38 93
Clayton Kershaw 22 112 4.03 50
Claudio Vargas 15 82 4.57 42
Eric Stults 14 71 4.48 35
Jason Schmidt 12 63 4.29 30
Who Knows 33 169 4.30 81
2009 Dodgers Bullpen Innings FIP FipRuns
Jonathan Broxton 70 2.63 20
Hong-Chin Huo 69 2.90 22
Cory Wade 61 3.93 27
Romon Troncoso 44 3.81 19
Scott Elbert 28 4.17 13
Who Knows 276 3.99 122
Total 162 1458 3.94 638

Notes:
1 – Data for Kershaw, Vargas, Stults, McDonald, Wade, Troncoso, and Elbert from Marcel (no BillJames Data).
2 – Who Knows under Rotation is the remaining 33 Starts at the Average Innings and FIP of Kershaw, Vargas, Stults, Schmidt, and McDonald.
3 – Who Knows under Bullpen is the remaining 276 Innings at the Average FIP of Wade, Troncoso, and Elbert.

2009 Dodgers Lineup PAs wOBA wRC RS/150
Rafale Furcal 539 .341 62.4 2
Russell Martin 626 .370 86.9 3
Andre Either 601 .377 86.5 0
Matt Kemp 610 .375 87.5 -10
James Loney 599 .348 72.2 1
Casey Blake 381 .337 42.4 -8
Blake DeWitt 416 .324 42.0 5
Juan Pierre 432 .316 40.5 9
2009 Dodgers Bench PAs wOBA wRC RS/50
Danny Ardoin 227 .290 19.0 0
Mark Loretta 277 .327 28.7 -2
Chin-Lung Hu 493 .299 39.6 7
Delwyn Young 275 .329 32.4 -2
Tony Abreu 218 333 26.4 -2
Jason Repko 210 .324 23.8 0
Pitchers 346 Zero Zero Zero
Total 6250 NC 690 3

Notes:
1 – Data for Ardoin, Young, Abreu, and Repko from Marcel (no BillJames Data).
2 – Used Hu’s RS/150 because of the large amount of playing time predicted by Bill James (493 PAs).

Bottom Line Is that the above Data predicted the 2009 Dodgers as currently configured to score 690 runs while giving up 635 (Defense Saves 3 Runs). This is a 55 Run Differential and by my formula of 1 win above .500 by every 10 runs would predict the Dodgers to win 86 to 87 games.

I really like the analysis here, but it is truly likely the Giants will cut their runs allowed from 759 to just 625? I don’t think so. The least number of runs allowed last season in the NL was 648 by the Dodgers. Only four teams yielded fewer than 700 runs.

If the Giants reduced their runs allowed by half a run per game, they would allow 678 runs, which would have ranked them fourth in the NL last year. Wouldn’t that seem something akin to a best-case scenario? It isn’t as if the Giants’ pitching stunk last season.

As for the number of runs scored, 652 seems reasonable — although I would also like to add that it was based on 6250 plate appearances, while the 2008 Giants had only 6145 appearances. If one prorates those 652 runs by 6145 plate appearances divided by 6250 plate appearances, one winds up at 641 runs, or an improvement of one run.

Personally I think it might be reasonable to expect the Giants to score somewhere around 640 runs and to yield something like 690 tallies. That would project out to a record of 76-86. That sounds about right to me, unless the Giants can add another hitter or two.

Is it realistic to expect the Giants to allow 134 fewer runs next season, as the 625-run prediction would indicate? I think it’s possible — but not likely. I would expect a reduction of perhaps half that many.

76-86. I wish it were better, but without more hitting, I’m not at all sure it will be.

Bill James projects Manny to have 654 PAs in 2009 with a wOBA of .413 and thus a wRC of 114.1. Chone Smith projects Manny to be worth -15 runs defensively in LF.

For the Giants let us assume that Manny replaces Dave Roberts. Now Dave is only projected to have 314 PAs with a .308 wOBA and thus a wRC of 27.6. So which Giants are going to loss the other 340 PAs Manny is going to get? I am going to assume that all 340 of these PAs come from Fred Lewis. The result of this is that Fred is now projected to have his PAs reduced from 559 to 219 thus having his wRC reduced by 29.7 from 65.3 to 25.6 while maintaining his .342 wOBA.

The net of all this is that Manny is projected to replace 654 Fred Lewis and Dave Roberts PAs that are projected to produced a combined wRC of 57.3 with his 114.1 wRC thus increasing the runs the Giants score by 57 from 652 to 709. On Defense the Giants are projected to lose the 3 runs saved by Fred Lewis and Dave Roberts and loss the 15 runs that Manny gives away all by himself for a Net total defensive loss of 18 runs. Adding in these 18 runs and 60 runs for unearned runs adjustment that seems to be required and the Giants should then be projected to allow 703 runs.

With Manny the Giants are projected to score 6 more runs then they allow while without Manny they are projected to allow 33 more runs then they score. This means that Manny is worth 39 runs or 4 Wins to the Giants. These 4 wins would increase the Giants projected win total from 78 to 82.

Now let’s look at what difference Manny would make to the Dodgers. For the Dodgers let us assume that Manny replaces both Jason Repko’s and Delwyn Young’s combined 485 PAs, 56.2 wRC, and -2 RS. In addition Manny will reduce Juan Pierre’s PAs by 169 from 432 to 263 thus reducing his wRC by 16 from 40.5 to 24.5 and his RS from 9 to 5. All told Manny will replace 654 Young, Repko, and Pierre PAs that produced 72.2 wRC and 2 RS with his 654 PAs that produce 114.1 wRC and -15 RS. Net the Dodgers gain 42 runs on offense increasing their projected total from 690 to 732 while lossing 17 runs on defense increasing their projected total from 695 to 712.

With Manny the Dodgers are projected to score 20 more runs then they allow while without Manny the Dodgers are projected to allow 5 more runs then they score. This means that Manny is worth just 25 runs or 3 wins to the Dodgers. These 3 wins would increase the Dodgers projected win total from 80 to 83.

So the question remains, should the Giants spend $20+/yr for 2+ Years to sign Manny and get this net 7 wins (4 more Giants wins and 3 less Dodgers wins)? If the Giants do so they would then be projected to beat out the Dodgers for the NL West Title by 2 games with 82 wins compared to the Dodgers 80.