Front and Center
by Grant on Jan 15, 2009 1:07 PM PST
153 comments
This offseason has been a pleasant surprise. The Giants had a gaping hole at shortstop, and the ostensible solution was just a year removed from A-ball. The bullpen needed a couple of arms. The rotation was 80% set, but an additional starter with upside wouldn’t have hurt. There was a huge and obvious need for several power bats. Brian Sabean was able to solve all of these problems without hurting the team’s minor league system. Yep. He solved them all. There isn’t something up there that he didn’t fix. Nope. Moving on….
So is this a new Sabean? A new era? The Giants have been aggressive in the Dominican Republic, they haven’t shied away from high-priced demands in the amateur draft, and they haven’t locked themselves into ridiculous contracts (since the last one, at least). It all seems so…functional. I’m quietly impressed.
I’m not ready to proclaim my unwavering support for Sabean, though. There are a lot of reasons – habit, logic, Jose Mesa-related night tremors – but I’ll just focus on one today: center field. This dark and confusing obsession of Sabean’s has been…dark and confusing. The Giants have repeated the following pattern a few times now:
"Gee, thanks! Oh, I forgot to tell you, I can’t really play center field."
"Whoops. No biggie! We’ll just make a trade or give a free agent some money!"
Marvin Bernard was the first. In the beginning of the 2000 season, the Giants signed Benard to a three-year extension. Whoops. It turned out that the new park had a ton of outfield, and Benard just wasn’t a good defender.
Randy Winn doesn’t quite fit the above pattern, but he was a part of one of the most baffling and far-reaching decisions of Sabean’s career. The Giants traded for Winn, and started him in center. Then they decided that Winn a) couldn’t handle center field defensively, and b) had enough of a bat for right field, so they signed Winn to a lucrative extension. Now that Randy Winn was a non-center fielder making a good amount of money, the Giants decided they needed a "real" center fielder. They threw money at two awful options – Juan Pierre, who was never good enough to play center, and Gary Matthews, Jr., who was coming off a career year in his 30s. Mercifully, both players are now other team’s problems, but the Giants’ third choice was Dave Roberts, who did sign. Here’s a funny little snippet from the original Roberts-to-the-Giants article:
Everyone knew that Roberts wasn’t a good centerfielder. Certainly he couldn’t have been enough of an improvement on Winn that it justified an additional $18M expenditure, right? Ugh. Even worse, Roberts forced Winn to stay in right field, which meant the Giants weren’t going to acquire anyone to play right field, where power is readily available. That’s how you build a team that can’t crack 100 home runs. Nothing against Winn, but his ultimate value to the team would have been better realized in center.
Once it was clear that Roberts wasn’t a good defensive center fielder, the Giants decided that they absolutely could not be without a good defensive center fielder. So they committed $60M to Aaron Rowand, who was a good defensive center fielder. Emphasis on the past tense, "was." Rowand drank from the same celebratory champagne flute as Barry Zito, apparently, because somewhere between his old team and his new team, he lost a chunk of his value. I can almost forgive Sabean for this one, as Rowand was once highly regarded defensively by stats and scouts alike. Still, the Giants already had Winn, and they’re now without a good defensive center fielder. Again. Unless you count Winn, of course.
Long story short: I have no idea how Brian Sabean evaluates center fielders. He thought Juan Pierre was a viable option, but Randy Winn was always out of the question. Marvin Benard and Dave Roberts were a-ok to lock in, but Randy Winn was always out of the question, to the point where a five-year/$60M contract was preferable to Winn in center. Until I’m reassured that Sabean has any idea what constitutes a good or bad center fielder, I’ll be wary of the New Sabean. Every time I think that I could be fine with Sabean constructing future rosters, I think "Gary Matthews, Juan Pierre, and Dave Roberts," and I get over it.
So I’ll just wait for the inevitable Rowand-to-right field move, followed by a five-year deal to Nate McLouth.
0 recs |
153 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
Winn in Right
Thing is, it’s kinda nice having a center fielder playing right field at AT&T. Winn has it down to a science. He covers that gap like a madman. Soooo…any power hitting left fielders available instead?
by JesseSeg on Jan 15, 2009 1:22 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
You mean, besides Dave Roberts?
Adoptive father to the All-Father. Does that make me the All-Grandfather?
by EliminateMe on Jan 15, 2009 1:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ort got picked up already....
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
by baetown415 on Jan 15, 2009 9:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No, he's wrong.
Giants: World Series Champions...in 2011.
by Giants_Junkie on Jan 16, 2009 12:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
We Agree - Ever Since He Got Here In Mid 2005 Randy Winn Has Been The Giants Best CF Option
Spending money twice (Dave Roberts followed by Aaron Rowand) to keep Randy out of CF was to say the least unwise.
I do however have to quibble with you on one of your lessor points. Juan Pierre has a spegetti arm and bat, but all the stats I have seen say he was (and still is) a good defensive centerfielder. Common perception may say otherwise but the stats seem to clearly disagree with this common perception. In fact, Chone Smith’s defensive projections for 2009 (based I am sure on these stats) say that the Dodgers are better off with Pierre in CF and Kemp in LF then the other way around.
by giantsrainman on Jan 15, 2009 1:25 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Pierre sucks and here’s my reasoning.
1. He’s a Dodger
2. He does in fact, suck.
by Giant Voodoo on Jan 15, 2009 1:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
3. He has a tiny little head.
Adoptive father to the All-Father. Does that make me the All-Grandfather?
by EliminateMe on Jan 15, 2009 1:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
4. The French name.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Jan 15, 2009 1:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
5. He's a veteran who Sabean thinks can play center field
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
by jcb9 on Jan 15, 2009 1:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
6. Doesnt know how to fake bunt like Aurilia.
by Giant Voodoo on Jan 15, 2009 1:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
7. Has more power when bunting than swinging
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
by jcb9 on Jan 15, 2009 1:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
9. Really has a noodle arm, which is not a good quality for a CF.
Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???
by oldrips on Jan 15, 2009 4:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
10. He looks nine years old
Brian Sabean is akin to a treatable form of cancer... just get rid of it before it kills you
by milesntrane on Jan 15, 2009 4:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I seriously doubt the stats got it right on Pierre's defense
I was at the game in San Diego when he charged a can o corn popup to center only to have it land 30 feet behind him. It might have even been two outs with men on base so runs scored. I lived in Santa Barbara for a while and I was forced to watch far to many Dodger games. Watching Pierre running towards the warning track is always an adventure. The guy seems to get bad jumps but makes up with it with his speed, then ends up getting to the ball at a full sprint. This high speed style of defense is his biggest detractor IMHO.
Bring me the head of Barry Zito!
by elGuapo on Jan 15, 2009 1:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
re: your sig
That’s what Paris Hilton said.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
by jcb9 on Jan 15, 2009 1:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
i saw her in vegas and i thought i had died and gone to herpes. Come on Zito, you are ALREADY rich.
by Giant Voodoo on Jan 15, 2009 3:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It Does't Matter How Bad One Looks Getting To The Balls One Gets To.
It doesn’t matter how good another looks almost getting to the balls he almost gets to. What matters is who gets to the most balls. The Stats say Juan Pierre gets to more balls then most center fielders. That is all that matters.
by giantsrainman on Jan 15, 2009 2:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That's only true for fly ball outs
For all base hits that he gets to the weeny arm does indeed matter because it gives away bases virtually for free — same reason Johnny Damon has gotten to the point where the team can’t afford to play him in CF. He can still get to fly balls fine, but any single to CF is extra bases for the runners.
Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!
by Roger on Jan 15, 2009 2:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes His Arm Costs Some Bases But Not As Many As You Seem To Think.
by giantsrainman on Jan 15, 2009 3:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
All I can say is....
…I’m damn glad that you’re not the GM of the GIants. Your player evaluation skills are as good as……say…….Pierre is as a CF.
Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???
by oldrips on Jan 15, 2009 4:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I Didn't Say I Would Want Him - I Wouldn't But It Would Be His Offense Not His Defense That Would Be The Issue
by giantsrainman on Jan 15, 2009 4:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That statement just proves my point. Thank you.
Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???
by oldrips on Jan 15, 2009 7:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
How so?
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jan 15, 2009 7:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
My point was...
…that GRM’s player evaluation skills are seriously lacking. His insistence that Pierre’s defense isn’t up to snuff just proves that point.
Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???
by oldrips on Jan 15, 2009 10:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
huh?
I think you’ve got it backwards.
by FairweatherFan on Jan 15, 2009 10:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hoo Boy
isn’t=is
I shouldn’t try to type late at night. I do it as well as Pierre plays defense.
Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???
by oldrips on Jan 15, 2009 10:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
By the way
Didn’t a recent President have an issue with what the meaning of “is” is?
Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???
by oldrips on Jan 15, 2009 10:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Juan Pierre is still an above average CF defensively.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jan 15, 2009 11:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Can you quantify that in any way?
Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!
by Roger on Jan 15, 2009 8:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
There Are Some Defensive Metircs That Measure This
You are correct that this is not included in the one’s I know how to get access to like UZR at Fangraphs. Perhaps one of the more enlighten stats geeks (I am trying but I am not their yet) can help both you and me out here.
by giantsrainman on Jan 15, 2009 9:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
In 2007, according to this article at THT, Pierre was worth about -7 runs due to his arm. In 2006 he was worth about -2 runs.
I don’t know how reliable these numbers are, nor could I find the 2008 numbers for some reason. Anyways, he’s certainly giving back some of his defensive value in CF due to his arm, but I think it’s safe to say that he’s average, at worst, in center.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jan 15, 2009 11:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
hmmmm
Well I would argue that Paris Hilton gets to the most balls.
I understand the stats and that yes Pierre gets to a lot of balls. What I was attempting to explain was that he doesn’t seem to make smooth and efficient plays once he gets there. The “OMG my hair is on fire” way he plays once he gets to a ball is the issue as I see it.
Bring me the head of Barry Zito!
by elGuapo on Jan 15, 2009 5:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Juan Pierre
a.k.a. “Jean Pedro”
Leading the Pro-Aaron Rowand contingent on the McC!
You can ridicule me in 2009 if you like...
by ThrillisGone22 on Jan 16, 2009 12:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Common Denominator
In each of the transactions you mentioned, Sabean signed veteran CFers. SF has a solid pitching rotation and a quality defensive CF would be a great compliment to this team. Young legs to run to the Chevron Car in left to the archways in RF. A young talent because the farm cupboard is bare.
There must be a young enough player available with Raj Davis defense yet with a decent enough OBP. Any suggestions? Would the Angels part with Reggie Willits?
by wilriv21 on Jan 15, 2009 1:28 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Fred Lewis
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jan 15, 2009 2:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Do not believe Fred Lewis is a quality defensive CF.
by wilriv21 on Jan 15, 2009 2:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think he’s better than Willits
We don't really have that much pitching depth. We don't really have that much pitching depth. FOR GOD SAKE, VERUCA, DON'T GO FAKE TRADING JONATHAN SANCHEZ. We don't really have that much pitching depth
by oldjacket on Jan 15, 2009 2:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What choo talkin' 'bout, Willits?
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on Jan 15, 2009 2:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Practice!
What we talkin’ bout man, practice!
by W8ingForATitle on Jan 15, 2009 3:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Suggestions now be accepted
With the pitching staff the Giants have it seems to be strikeout/flyball outcome. Having a GG type CF defense helps the entire OF and the team. A solid CF roaming the OF could assist the pitchers in throwing fewer pitches and surrendering less runs.
The farm systems is without a CF prospect – unless you think Wendell Fairley is the answer. If so, Wendell is many years away. So would prefer the Giants pursue a CF. Any suggestions?
by wilriv21 on Jan 15, 2009 2:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
List of CF with better range than Aaron Rowand
over the last 3 years, min 500 innings, according to UZR (so caveat lector)
guys I roughly estimate to be good hitters in bold.
Darin Erstad
Andruw Jones (obviously in decline)
Carlos Gomez
Alfredo Amezaga
Juan Pierre
Jerry Owens
Eric Byrnes (no way I believe that his D is as good as UZR says it is)
Jody Gerut
Felix Pie
Rocco Baldelli (probably not anymore)
Jacque Jones
Joey Gathright
Grady Sizemore
Brian Anderson
Coco Crisp
Shane Victorino
Marlon Byrd
So Taguchi
Cody Ross (platoon issues iirc)
Carlos Gonzalez (maybe he can hit)
Jacoby Ellsbury (ditto)
Alex Rios
Michael Bourn
Corey Patterson
David DeJesus (The Royals don’t like his D in center though)
Carlos Beltran
Adam Jones
Curtis Granderson
Mike Cameron
Nook Logan
Rajai Davis
B.J. Upton
Chris Duffy
Brady Clark
Bill Hall
Reggie Abercrombie
Ichiro Suzuki
We don't really have that much pitching depth. We don't really have that much pitching depth. FOR GOD SAKE, VERUCA, DON'T GO FAKE TRADING JONATHAN SANCHEZ. We don't really have that much pitching depth
by oldjacket on Jan 15, 2009 3:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Was thinking the younger less experienced pool of players who might be blocked or could be available in trade.
Grady sounds like a good name for a CF.
by wilriv21 on Jan 15, 2009 3:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It would have been nice..
To pick up Ichiro.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Jan 15, 2009 3:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What about me? I come all the way over from CF to rob HRs in left field! There’s video evidence.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on Jan 15, 2009 6:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No Dustin Mohr?
That hurts. That really hurts.
by StickRat on Jan 15, 2009 6:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Believe it or not I think Pie, Felix Pie, should interest us.
I don’t expect him to be a Granderson type force but he might be available at a reasonable rate over the next year or so. He is still young enough his bat could come along. He is not a perfect choice but is young enough keep getting better.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
Here comes Captain Obvious wearing his Atomic Wedgie!
by daveinexile on Jan 15, 2009 11:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Mmmm pie
Believe a GG type glove with a .335+ OBP and able to steal bases would be a great compliment for this Giants team. Pie is out of options this season and the Cubs OF is full so they probably would look to move him.
by wilriv21 on Jan 16, 2009 11:39 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I like Pie as well
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jan 16, 2009 11:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Except that he pronounces his name stupidly
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jan 16, 2009 11:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Does anyone remember last season when the ball popped out of Flew’s glove and into Rowand’s? Now that was a cool move.
I can haz homerunz!
by jbowl on Jan 15, 2009 2:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
Anyone have video, I’d love to see that and I don’t remember it.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Jan 15, 2009 3:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I was at that game. It was pretty funny to see live.
by deuce deuce on Jan 15, 2009 6:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I remember those hats
they were ugly
by bondslegend on Jan 15, 2009 7:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
MLB Video never loads for me.
Does anyone have any advice on what to do about that?
"Just another ahahahaha... laugher."
by capnk on Jan 15, 2009 7:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I believe it uses that Microsoft Silverlight thing. You should go to Microsoft’s website and download the latest version of Silverlight. Also, you could try clearing your temporary internet files and your cache and cookies in your browser.
by deuce deuce on Jan 15, 2009 7:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll take those cookies.
And your cash.
Who has the fun?
Is it always the man with the gun?
- The Stranglers
by victor frankenstein on Jan 16, 2009 12:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
hahahaha
This is amazingly funny at 3 in the morning.
by non sequitur on Jan 16, 2009 3:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Do not believe Rajai Davis or Reggie Willits are better quality defensive CF since there isn’t any evidence to support this.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jan 15, 2009 2:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
How about your own opinion? My unscoutful eyes tell me Davis is a much, much better defensive CF than Rowand.
by wilriv21 on Jan 15, 2009 2:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Better than Rowand? Probably not, outside of 2008 . We did just see the worst of Rowand though. The question is, did he just have a bad year, or was it real decline? My bet would be on bad year, but you never know.
If the choice is between Lewis or Rowand in CF, I’ll take Rowand for at least another year. If he has another horrible year in 2009, and Lewis has another good year in LF, that might switch. However, if we were to trade Rowand (which I don’t think is likely), I think Lewis could handle CF just fine.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jan 15, 2009 3:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Eh
I would bet he can bounce back at the plate. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he declined in the field. The guy’s body takes a huge beating every year due to his reckless style. Think Eric Byrnes if you will. Even Andruw Jones started to take a major beating over the last few years and we’ve all seen how it effected him. Yes, he turned into a fat tub of goo as well, but well before that happened he was in decline on the defensive end.
by Hobbes2d on Jan 15, 2009 3:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Jones took a major eating
We don't really have that much pitching depth. We don't really have that much pitching depth. FOR GOD SAKE, VERUCA, DON'T GO FAKE TRADING JONATHAN SANCHEZ. We don't really have that much pitching depth
by oldjacket on Jan 15, 2009 3:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Rajai Davis was a joy to watch in center field. When he first came over from Pittsburgh he was making highlight reel catches every night. If we’re talking defense only I would much rather see Davis in CF than Rowand.
by Norm Median on Jan 16, 2009 1:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If Davis could maintain an OBP of .335+ to go with the glove, arm and speed he (or anyone like him) would be a nice compliment to this team. Then you could go with a defender like Manny Ramirez in LF if Sabean so chooses.
by wilriv21 on Jan 16, 2009 1:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
We totally blew it...
letting Rajai go. Speed, defense, cannon arm, and contact swing. He swung at a lot of bad balls, but he still got a piece.
Brian Sabean is akin to a treatable form of cancer... just get rid of it before it kills you
by milesntrane on Jan 15, 2009 4:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sabes next move could be...
…to sign Manny for center field, and then petition MLB to allow SF four outfielders because what is good for the Yankees Giants is good for baseball!!
No need to panic, I will move back to San Francisco and bring the power of championships with me after spreading my wealth to New England and Philly
by say hey nation on Jan 15, 2009 1:46 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
To make this deal work...
Sabes would have to petition New York San Fran for 100 million in taxable non taxable bonds for his job security Mannys salary.
I may be am an idiot but hey this just might work.
No need to panic, I will move back to San Francisco and bring the power of championships with me after spreading my wealth to New England and Philly
by say hey nation on Jan 15, 2009 1:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
you already can have 4 outfielders.....
It just means you only have 3 infielders.
Bring me the head of Barry Zito!
by elGuapo on Jan 15, 2009 1:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Every time I think that I could be fine with Sabean constructing future rosters, I think of Brian Bocock and I get over it.
by Evan on Jan 15, 2009 2:05 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Every time I think that I could be fine with Sabean constructing future rosters, I think of Brian Bocock and I get over it.
Oh, yeah. That.
by Grant on Jan 15, 2009 2:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sabean
reminds me of this joke:
Do they call me Sabean the Bonds signer? Sabean the Kent for Williams-er? Sabean the Schmidt finder?
But one little Neifi…
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on Jan 15, 2009 11:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Since he gave a certain young shortstop just a small taste of big-league ball, perhaps he’s Sabean the Bocock-teaser
Sabean the Big Unit Grabber?
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on Jan 16, 2009 6:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So I’ll just wait for the inevitable Rowand-to-right field move, followed by a five-year deal to Nate McLouth.
That leaves a bad taste in my mouth.
PREEMPTIVE: That’s what she said.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jan 15, 2009 2:14 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
"Preemptive"
That’s what she said.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Jan 15, 2009 3:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
slighty off topic
but i have a hankering for some grape juice.
Dodgers fans eat their young.
by redhornet78 on Jan 15, 2009 2:22 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
PIE!
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Jan 15, 2009 2:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
what the f**k is juice?
I want that purple stuff
That is DRRRINK!
by bondslegend on Jan 15, 2009 7:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Winn's defense
I have wondered about something for a while. Do “park factors” factor in the crazy dimensions of AT&T Park’s RF and the way fielders alter their starting position to cover RCF? I haven’t done the math, but it seems that a RF there covers as much area as other parks – I would contend that the type of movement, going back and to the right for right-handed fielders (i.e. most RF) is more difficult than other places. But I just can’t shake the feeling that Winn’s value in RF is overvalued because of the park. If you compare his stats in LF, CF, and RF, he is a MUCH better RF over his career (large enough and comparable sample sizes). One would expect that his LF and RF numbers should be similar. And take into account that he played more LF when he was younger, and more RF as he has approached his mid-30s. The alternative is as JesseSeg stated, that he just knows how to play RF at AT&T.
Any thoughts? Is there a place for defensive home/away splits?
Go Fred Lewis... You're better than the alternative... Yippee...
by Uribe nee Gonzalez on Jan 15, 2009 2:41 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Do "park factors" factor in the crazy dimensions of AT&T Park’s RF and the way fielders alter their starting position to cover RCF?
I’ve wondered this too, especially since I seem to recall Jose Cruz, Reggie Sanders, and Michael Tucker all ranking near the top of their position.
by Grant on Jan 15, 2009 2:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No, park adjusted stats don’t take the fields dimensions into account. They have a park factor that they come up with based on teams performances at their park compared to the rest of the places they play. Depending on what stat we’re talking about, oftentimes there is a general park factor used for everyone, and a park can have a neutral park factor by helping lefties and hurting righties.
For example, OPS+ uses a park factor in that way. If a park hurts right handed hitters and helps left handed hitters, the left handed hitters will have their OPS+ inflated and the right handed hitters will have their OPS+ deflated, despite the fact that the statistic is “park-neutral”.
I can’t speak specifically for all the defensive stats but I believe most of them are calculated in a similar fashion…so long answer short, they do not do a perfect job of taking park dimensions into account.
Note: Members of the Red Sox organization always thought Manny was a better fielder than the stats showed – It is reasonable to conclude this is because the defensive stats don’t do a good job with Fenway since it’s such a bizarre park. Manny’s defense last year may not have been such a big fluke.
by Missing Barry on Jan 15, 2009 5:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Note that this makes sense
for OPS+ when you consider the stat as telling you the VALUE of a given performance, rather than a predictor of future sucess. An OPS+ of 100 has equal value in any park, whether you are a LHH at AT&T or … dunnno RHH at Fenway?
Hmm… maybe a more clear example. In Coors, where runs are plentiful, slap ground ball hitters (perhaps, work with me here) don’t have their OPS inflated so much. However, there value is measured CORRECTLY by OPS+ because runs are worth less.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on Jan 15, 2009 11:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
OPS+ does not have equal value in any park. You have the concept right that OPS+ adjusts for park factors and will adjust those who play at Coors or in Philly down because the park inflates their stats. The actual calculation of OPS+ is not perfect though, and in some cases the numbers will be off. More times than not you can take it at face value, though, and your example of Coors field is correct in that OPS+ should measure it correctly.
However, someone like Lewis will have a upwards biased OPS+ in SF because it helps his hitting style despite being a “neutral” hitting park, while someone like Adam Dunn would have it downwards biased in SF because it hurts his hitting style (lefty, only walks, k’s, or HR’s). And like I said before, Fenway will have a biased OPS+ (not sure which direction it will be biased) because it’s such a strange park.
by Missing Barry on Jan 16, 2009 7:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
… and more to the point, OPS is just a dumb stat and we should all try to stop using it now that much better ones are available.
by Evan on Jan 16, 2009 7:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I still like using it for just quick glances at a player because it’s an easy baseline to use (and I have a feel for the mean and variance of it) – though I always look at their BA OBP SLG breakdowns to see how heavily its weighted by each of those factors. You’re right though – if you get into more depth for a player there are a lot of better things out there (though it can be time consuming to figure out which stats are well done and which are poorly done).
And calling it a dumb stat is a bit harsh- the theory behind it is dumb because there is no real reason for it but it does actually correlate very highly with runs scored.
by Missing Barry on Jan 16, 2009 7:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I know, I still use it too, but the “slap two things together” inelegance of it annoys me (and it’s less accurate than wOBA or whatever).
by Evan on Jan 16, 2009 7:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I know what you mean, I’m trying to move on to wOBA. Unfortunately I think it’s going to take me a while to figure out how much better .365 is than .330, and what players at each position should be putting up and such…
by Missing Barry on Jan 16, 2009 8:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
how much accuracy are you losing
in going from wOBA to OPS+? 1% 5%? Yes, it undervalues OBP slightly. But until baseballreference starts puttinw wOBA there, I cannot be bothered to transfer it.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on Jan 16, 2009 9:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve been using wOBA+ from statcorner.com. Same principle as OPS+, but much more wOBAier.
by Evan on Jan 16, 2009 10:01 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
what do you mean?
The “numbers will be off”.
Not sure about your second comment… are you complaining about OPS (e.g., undervaluing OBP) or park effects in general?
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on Jan 16, 2009 9:47 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/parkadjust.shtml
Basically the park factor is calculated by comparing each teams runs scored in the park compared to on the road. This does not take into account the nature of a park (how it plays for right handed hitters, left handed hitters, home run hitters, doubles/triples/gap power players).
Phone Company Park for the Giants, for example, lately has played as a neutral ballpark. It’s park factor is around 1 (league average). However, we know that it takes away runs from left handed home run hitters, and gives them back with big gaps, especially in RCF (I’ve seen the stats, too lazy to look for a link). Fred Lewis is the type of htiter that benefits from this.
Let’s say Lewis posted an OPS that before doing the park adjustment would translate to an OPS+ of 100. This 100 is then divided by the park factor – which for the Giants park is 1. His OPS+ is thus 100. However, in reality the Giants park plays above 1 for Lewis – it increases his run production with large gaps other stadiums don’t have (while not decreasing his production much since he doesn’t hit many HR’s). In reality it may play around a 1.04 for him (increasing his production by 4%). 100/1.04 would only be an OPS+ of 96 if the park factor was calculated correctly in his case.
In general the park factor does a good job of evaluating park effects. It takes the average park effect and uses it in the denominator of the equation to give us park adjusted stats. My point is it must be taken with a grain of salt because the average park effect is not necessarily correct for each individual. In addition, just because run production changes 5% does not necessarily translate exactly into a 5% change in OPS.
This started with a discussion about defensive park effects….oh well.
by Missing Barry on Jan 16, 2009 11:40 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You are correct
in that using park effects is not a very good way of predicting how hitters will hit in park a. However, it is absolutly a good way for determining HOW MUCH VALUE a players season has. Your comments about Fred Lewis are ONLY good for estimating how Lewis will hit in the future, for the past, they are not relevant.
Let ‘s simplify. I have some stat, call it RCp for RC perfect. This stat, which doesn’t exist EXACTLY measures how many runs a batter was worth to his team. If you sum up the RCp for a team’s batters, you always get exactly the teams runs score for that season. (Note that the unrealistic perfection of this stat is not relavent).
This number is not park adjusted. Say we are playing in a 105 park (as calculated above). That means runs are worth 5% LESS in that park – for both teams – because they are more frequent. Whatever the reason – weather, foul territory, background, 2-headed cow farts – don’t matter. Runs are Runs. It takes more runs on average to win a game in a 105 park than in a 100 park. That means, when you park adjust poor fred lewis who has an RCp in our 105 park, his RCp+ becomes 95 or whatever. That is a true measure of his value to the team (for PAs in that park…. over the whole season it would actually be 97.5 because he plays 1/2 his game in a “by definition neutral” road park.
This means that Flewis’ value is hurt by his park – even if component wise the only reason that it’s a 105 park and not a 100 park is that there are a few more HRs/year, and our FLewis only hits ground ball singles and is there for never helped.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on Jan 16, 2009 1:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting point, I see where you’re coming from. It seems like we were arguing on slightly different points. I was thinking of it more on the basis of comparing individual players.
by Missing Barry on Jan 16, 2009 1:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ow my head.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Jan 18, 2009 4:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
paradox?
I believe defensive stats are based on expected out. So if I am wrong and the right-field area is smaller at AT&T Park, and thus easier to reach balls, their values could be inflated.
You can check those guys stats on FanGraphs:
Cruz, Jr.
Sanders
Tucker
One would have to do an in depth analysis to compare, and there probably isn’t enough sample size, but it is interesting nonetheless.
Go Fred Lewis... You're better than the alternative... Yippee...
by Uribe nee Gonzalez on Jan 15, 2009 3:03 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
woops, reply fail
supposed to reply to rotorueter above
Go Fred Lewis... You're better than the alternative... Yippee...
by Uribe nee Gonzalez on Jan 15, 2009 3:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well
I’m not sure I buy into that when you would think the same would apply to LF’s in Boston…..
If anything having a huge wall there should help your stats right?
I think Cruz, Sanders, Tucker, and Winn were all just pretty good defenders while they were in SF.
I mean as far as I can remember, all 4 of them were considered above average defenders in their prime…with SF or away from SF. I can’t look up their numbers at the moment, but going off memory that is what I’m guessing. Anyone disagree with this? Or can anyone shed some light on the matter….?
by Hobbes2d on Jan 15, 2009 3:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Brian Sabean just listened to a lot of John Fogerty back in the day.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jan 15, 2009 3:14 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I have two major problems with Grant's analysis...
Number 1) What is wrong with Aaron Rowand in center? Aside from a few inaccurate throws home last year, I saw nothing wrong with his tracking fly balls, nor covering ground.
Number 2) Randy Winn is NOT a center fielder. Grant has mentioned Winn in center before and I just shake my noggin. He and Juan Pierre are very similar defenders in center, I believe. They are both quick (Pierre being quicker), they both take decent routes to balls in the gap (Winn being the better) and they both have noodle arms. One thing Winn does do a heck of a lot better than Pierre is track balls directly over his head. I have seen Juan Pierre run around in circles on the warning track at the 400 ft marker of several stadiums because he just loses the ball over his head. In short, I would not throw a lot of deep balls to Juan Pierre if he was a wide’out in the NFL.
Basically, Rowand deserves a lot more respect than having Winn even thought of as a sub for him in center.
p.s.: I’d personally rather have Dustin Mohr in center over all three.
Brian Sabean is akin to a treatable form of cancer... just get rid of it before it kills you
by milesntrane on Jan 15, 2009 4:32 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Who Are You? Dustin Mohr? Isn't He Out Of Baseball? What Is To Like About Dustin?
Any of the three you discussed (Winn, Rowand, Pierre) way better then Mohr now or ever.
by giantsrainman on Jan 15, 2009 4:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If Winn has a noodle arm..
Wouldn’t it be better to move him to center? He’d have a shorter distance to throw (sameish to home, closer to 3B).
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Jan 15, 2009 5:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Weak arm is a big deficiency in right field. If Winn’s arm is good (not necessarily strong, but accurate with a quick release) enough for right, then it will certainly be good enough for center. And, honestly, Randy’s arm is much better than Pierre’s.
by cornball on Jan 15, 2009 5:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Arm strength is overrated. First of all, the amount of outs a player makes and bases a player saves with their arm is small compared to outs they can make with their glove and bases they can save with their legs. Second of all, Barry never had a strong arm but did a great job using his arm as a weapon (especially in his later years). His footwork and release were so good the ball got where it needed to go faster than many fielders with strong arms.
by Missing Barry on Jan 15, 2009 5:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This
I was just trying to point out that arm strength is most important to the position that Winn plays now and that if it’s good enough for right, it’ll be good enough for center. Sure there are guys at each extreme for whom arm strength is important in determining defensive value (Vlad, Francouer and Ichiro one end with Damon and Pierre on the other), but for most it’s really a null sum. And it’s a really silly argument to use against a guy whose arm is neither great nor horrendous when you’re considering moving him OFF of RF. My other point – further up – was that it might be worth bearing it in mind if you were thinking of moving Rowand to right because he has a bad propensity to airmail throws, but I think we’re agreed that range and smarts are more important.
by cornball on Jan 15, 2009 5:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Every time Winn has gotten a chance to play CF, he has done a good job. Taking good routes to the ball is incredibly important and can make up for a lot of speed. Why do you think Dave Roberts isn’t just a terrible center fielder but bad outfielder in general. He runs a J to the ball every time, and he never takes the correct first step. Winn has been an average CF’er every time he’s played it – and being an average CF is harder/more valuable defensively than being an average or even above average corner outfielder, and that doesn’t even take into account how much more valuable his bat would become.
by Missing Barry on Jan 15, 2009 5:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Rowand is going to be fine
I think Rowand is going to be fine. I think he will always throw his body around too much and in turn hurt his value but I think he is due for a big bounce back. CF in The Big Phone must be one of the more challenging CFs in the league to roam. Now if he shits the bed a second season in a row then I’ll lead the mob against him but I think one more chance is in order.
Bring me the head of Barry Zito!
by elGuapo on Jan 15, 2009 5:19 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Do you think just his defense is going to bounce back or his offense too? Rowand has only had two years with an OPS over .800 (not that OPS is the best stat but it’s an easy cutoff…). 2004 and 2007, where he put up lines of .310/.361/.544 and .309/.374/.515, respectively. Unfortunately, he also had BABIP of .341 and .348, and ballpark factors of 102 and 105, respectively.
I hold out little hope for Rowand’s offense. Other than those two fluke years he’s more of a .750 OPS type hitter. Average defense with that kind of hitting in CF gives us an above average player…but not even close to a 5 years/$60 mil player….
by Missing Barry on Jan 15, 2009 5:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yea about the offense....
Sadly I don’t think Rowand will bounce back much offensively. He put up his best offensive numbers on a very good hitting team while playing half his games in a hitters paradise….
However I think his lingering injuries and lack of experience playing CF in SF dragged his defense down last year. I have some hope that with a healthy year and the pressure of the first year of a big contract being over should help him a lot. While I would rather have Winn roving CF I still think Rowand will be a decent option for at least a year or two of the following contact. I don’t however think that he is worth what we are paying him….. In today’s economy he would be pretty lucky to get 2/3 of what we paid.
Bring me the head of Barry Zito!
by elGuapo on Jan 15, 2009 8:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
the park is not the issue
1 of his good (actually his best) years was in Chicago, not Philly. His PARK ADJUSTED OPS+s were 130 and 123. His career is 104. Last year 94. I think that his career numbers are dragged down a bit by injury. I think healthy (?!!?!) he is reasonably likely to put up a 110 OPS+. But there is much variance involved.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on Jan 15, 2009 11:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Chicago is also pretty much a hitters paradise, but your point stands. However, the problem with looking at career averages with a player who does seem to have so much variance is that 104 average is almost entirely sustained by those two exceptional years. Aside from ‘04 and ’07 he’s consistently been below average (OPS+ of 81, 93, 86, and 94 in the only other years with above 200 ABs). Do the old Olympic trick and throw out the highest and lowest scores, and his career averages will come down significantly.
Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!
by Roger on Jan 16, 2009 5:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Chicago is also pretty much a hitters paradise,
But the whole reason he brought up his OPS+ in Chicago is because it’s park adjusted, so throwing “hitter’s paradise” back in his face is just plain dastardly.
Rowand’s lack of consistency is really dramatic though. Does anyone know of the circumstances around the down years? Were there injuries such as what we saw last season.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on Jan 16, 2009 6:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Nah, he was responding to zb’s implicit argument that the Chicago numbers should be taken more at face value than the Philly numbers.
If anything, Comiskey is more of a hitter’s park than Philly.
by Evan on Jan 16, 2009 7:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And you have to wonder whether a 31-year-old who has suffered a lot of injuries is really capable of playing up to his peak level anymore.
Sure, if you hold on to Rowand for a couple of years, he’ll probably hit a hot streak that bumps up his trade value a bit. But worrying about that tiny bit of arbitrage seems like a recipe for making poor personnel decisions.
by Evan on Jan 16, 2009 7:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
but it's a sunk cost.
If you and I can do this analysis of Rowand farting around on the internet, the other GMs can do it to. So we won’t get any value for trading him. May as well just bench him.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on Jan 16, 2009 9:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, yeah, it’s largely an academic discussion, but you never know. Maybe the Yankees who have a scout who swears that Rowand is still a top-flight fielder or something. You need to know in advance (and by “you” I mean Brian Sabean and all those of us who like to second-guess him) how much dough are you willing to eat to move Rowand. My answer would be $10-12 million.
The ideal Giant use for Rowand at this point would be as a platoon guy, sitting either Lewis or Schierholtz down against all left-handers. But you can’t do that, because he’s a star.
by Evan on Jan 16, 2009 10:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
so your plan is to
rook another GM. That is why hot stove trades are stupid. Unless the other GM is stupid, trades are always very close to zero-sum.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on Jan 16, 2009 1:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
“Unless the other GM is stupid, trades are always very close to zero-sum.”
So, in other words, trades usually are NOT zero-sum.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
by jcb9 on Jan 16, 2009 1:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No, my “plan” is to develop a realistic picture of how valuable each player on the roster is long-term, and to figure out where we can most efficiently improve. You need to place each player on the scale from “don’t trade him no matter what” to “might as release him.” Rowand still has value to the Giants, but if anyone from another team actually wants him at anything like his current salary, I’ll trade him in a minute without worrying about whether his value might be higher in a few months.
by Evan on Jan 16, 2009 2:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
of course. But I believe this to be not the case (no one will take him at anything near his current salary). So we are stuck with him unless he is actually a pure waste of a roster spot (like say, Dave Roberts). So now your simple job is just putting the best OF on the field. And sadly enough, that probably includes a good helping of Aaron Rowand (unless mystical Manny manifests mysteriously)
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on Jan 16, 2009 3:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think he may
Not will, may. The reason is that Rowand’s value is very batting average dependent. BA is highly variable. I believe that his good years were NOT flukes, but rather “high end outcomes” of a guy who’s overall batting value is going to be all over the place (he hits .300+ good. .280 or less… bad).
I think (although I don’t really have any proof) that he’s just a high variance guy and since 2008 was below his career average, he will likely regress to that (unless he is actually age-declining…)
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on Jan 15, 2009 11:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The most important point isn’t even the parks he was hitting in – I didn’t quote OPS+ but you did and you were right, park adjusted they were very good years. The important point is BABIP – he had lucky years. Numbers that high are unsustainable and show the year was more of a lucky fluke than anything else. He should be putting up closer to a .300 BABIP – which is 30 to 40 points lower and going to heavily bring down his numbers. Think about it this way, other than those two years with unusually high and unsustainable BABIP, he’s posted one year with 112 OPS+, one year with 102 OPS+, and 3-4 years (4 if you want to include 2002 where he had 300 AB’s) of below 100 OPS+.
by Missing Barry on Jan 16, 2009 6:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think that
you are being fooled by the somewhat arbitrary break down of Rowand’s numbers into 162-game seasons. To some extent we do this a lot in baseball analysis. It’s not that he’s had 2 good and 3 bad seasons – will we get a good season or a bad one? Because if his true talent is an OPS of 104 or so, then you would expect distributions like that if the variance is high enough.
Remember the 3 months he hit .330 last year? It was, of course, unsustainble – but someone with a true talent BA of .290 is going to have streaks – even long ones – where he hits .330.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on Jan 16, 2009 1:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you, I was breaking it down that way because somewhere else 110 was mentioned as an expectation and I think that’s a bit too high – I thought the way I broke it down could help highlight that. 104 (his career average) does seem like a reasonable number, and of course 110 is plausible given an above average year (.330 BABIP isn’t sustainable long term but as Rowand has done twice already, it’s clearly possible over the course of a season).
by Missing Barry on Jan 16, 2009 1:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That was me!
His career is 104. Zips projects him for 100. I gave him a bump UP from with the assumption not that his career is inflated by some lucky seasons, but rather it’s dropped down by injury. Probably I am under compensating for age.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
by zenbitz on Jan 16, 2009 3:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough, I’m less optimistic about Rowand as a hitter. Some of that is probably bitterness about his contract.
by Missing Barry on Jan 16, 2009 4:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Rowand Signing
One of the main reasons Aaron Rowand was signed was that Bochy and Co wanted a new warrior spirit attitude for this team. If he can be moved they should do their best to move him.
by wilriv21 on Jan 15, 2009 5:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Winn is not that good defensively in CF
You have been beating the drums this off-season on this, but it don’t hold water. Winn has been a poor defensive CF for the Giants, look at his fangraphs stats for CF and the Giants: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1235&position=OF. His defense there for the Giants would lose about 1 win defensively every season.
Meanwhile, he’s been adding about 1.5 wins defensively on a full season basis in RF for the past three years, where the average RF in the NL in 2008 hits .271/.344/.444/.787 and he hit .306/.363/.426/.790. So he has been clearly better than the average RF, and probably by a good margin given his defensive excellence there, he just doesn’t have the average power of a RF.
Plus, that’s a 2.5 win swing defensively, him moving from RF to CF, but I don’t think he hits that much better than the average CF to make up that 2.5 win difference.
Adoptive parental unit of Kevin " 2007's Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 16, 2009 9:47 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Small sample sizes again. Winn’s CF numbers with the Giants consist of about 800 innings, which is at least 1,200 less than you need to take them seriously.
Outfield play is extremely transferable from one position to another. The skills involved are the same. Anyone who is an outstanding corner outfielder is going to be at least decent in center.
by Evan on Jan 16, 2009 10:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Jeez lighten up people.
You need to be fewer concerned about your grammer.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Jan 16, 2009 10:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
NOT AS BIGLY CONCERNED GEEZ GET IT RIGHT!
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jan 16, 2009 11:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder why I always spell jeez with a g. It’s far less intuitive…
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jan 16, 2009 2:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Curse you and your reasoning!!!!
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
by baetown415 on Jan 16, 2009 12:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That’s pretty much my point. I’ve seen Winn play center, and I’ve seen Rowand play center. I know what the defensive stats are for both. I think Winn would be an upgrade unless Rowand’s year last year was a fluke.
by Grant on Jan 16, 2009 2:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Every time Sabean does something good, I remind myself he signed Renteria to a 2 year $18.5 mil contract this offseason. I think signing Renteria was a good move, and at the time I didn’t even object to the money much. But now that we’re seeing guys like Burrell get 2 years $16 mil while others like Manny and Dunn haven’t even been signed yet….looks like another miscalculation by Sabean. He never seems to learn.
by Missing Barry on Jan 16, 2009 3:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m sure a lot of folks were surprised at how the market dropped. Renteria probably is an overpayment by, what, $6M? $8M? That’s bad, but I’m sure Sabean was scared that Renteria was every Furcal suitor’s plan B, so he probably had a "What would it take to drive this franchise off the lot today?-moment.
There are still a couple of teams that are dying for a shortstop that doesn’t cost a draft pick — the A’s and Padres, for example — so I’m not sure how much his price would have dropped.
by Grant on Jan 16, 2009 5:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
A’s and Padres, for example — so I’m not sure how much his price would have dropped.
by wilriv21 on Jan 16, 2009 6:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
PadresLarry Fitzgerald
And we’re up 7 – 0!
Who has the fun?
Is it always the man with the gun?
- The Stranglers
by victor frankenstein on Jan 16, 2009 8:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
what the hell?
Barry Zito is messing around with Paris Hilton???
But … I mean … I was hoping Zito would make a comeback this year … and … I just knew he has it in him … but now he’s with her and that means …
I’m still going to root for him on the field, but this doesn’t bode well.
"Those boos really motivate me to make something happen." - Bonds
by Persiflage on Jan 20, 2009 11:16 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
and oh yeah
here’s to the idea that Rowand’s season last year was a fluke
"Those boos really motivate me to make something happen." - Bonds
by Persiflage on Jan 20, 2009 11:18 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
