Official McCovey Chronicles Prospect List
by marcello on Jan 12, 2009 9:40 PM PST
129 comments
I'm switching my cable/internet (helllllo MLB Network!), so I won't have internet connection for a lot of the day. As such, I'm front paging a couple of artices instead of my normal posting.
Here is the final community prospect list. Note, this is not my top-30 list, but rather an aggregation of community votes. Enjoy!
1. SP Madison Bumgarner
2. C Buster Posey
3. SP Tim Alderson
4. 1B Angel Villalona
5. 2B Nick Noonan
6. 3B Conor Gillaspie
7. SP Henry Sosa
8. OF Rafael Rodriguez
9. OF Roger Kieschnick
10. SP Kevin Pucetas
11. 1B Travis Ishikawa
12. OF Wendell Fairley
13. SP Scott Barnes
14. SS Brandon Crawford
15. SS Ehire Adrianza
16. SP Clayton Tanner
17. SP Jesse English
18. SP Joseph Martinez
19. OF/1B Thomas Neal
20. 3B Jesus Guzman
21. SP Aaron King
22. UT Matt Downs
23. SP Waldis Joaquin
24. OF Eddy Martinez-Esteve
25. P Jose Casilla
26. C Hector Sanchez
27. RP Edwin Quirarte
28. RP Luis Perdomo
29. SP Ben Snyder
30. RP Osiris Matos
And there you have it. I want to thank everyone who participated. I think we had some really good discussions about the prospects which were hopefully interesting and informational. I know I learned a lot throughout the process. Many thanks to WalrusMan for all his work and help on this project.
Some topic starters:
- Most overrated on our list?
- Most underrated on our list?
- Biggest slight?
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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1) Most overrated on our list – Kevin Pucetas or Travis Ishikawa
2) Most underrated on our list – Waldis Joaquin or Hector Sanchez
3) Biggest slight – Jorge Bucardo
I realize that the underrated/slight group is likely due to guys not being options on the poll when they should have been, but oh well.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jan 12, 2009 9:45 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Overrated: Downs.
Underrated: Neal.
Slight: McBryde.
Thanks for doing this. It’s been fun.
by Dan from NM on Jan 12, 2009 9:54 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Overrated: Downs
Underrated: Snyder…I need another season from Sanchez before I go gaga over him, but he was close.
Slight: McBryde
by Grant on Jan 12, 2009 9:58 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Agree and Disagree
I agree with you and Dan that McBryde was the biggest slight.
But I’m Down with Downs, BA called him the best pure bat in the Giants draft the year we got him and he hasn’t done anything to disprove that so far. He seems like a Mark Derosa type, playing four or five positions with a solid average and decent pop (maybe 10-15 HR/year) if everything comes together.
by Keenlow on Jan 13, 2009 8:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually BA’s wrap up of our draft that year went more like this: “Best Pure Bat: uh,…. well,….uh, they like athletes….uh…..drafted a lot of speed and defense types, uh…. they didn’t really ….uh….hmmmmm…… well … hey now, how bout that Downs guy!”
Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!
by Roger on Jan 13, 2009 8:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Downs is pretty impressive to watch. I see he got an invite to big league camp, we’ll see how he does.
Gillaspie seems very overrated to me, not real strong on the defensive side. Looked basically lazy, maybe he really does have the tools but I never saw anything impressive during his stint in SK.
Adopted father of Brian Bocock, Brad Boyer, Sharlon Schoop, Shane Jordan and Jeremiah Luster.
by RichH on Jan 13, 2009 4:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree on Downs
It’s “put up or shut up” time for my adopted son. The boy has shown he can hit at “A”. Triple A was a small sample size issue last year.
"Just take the ball and throw it where you want to. Throw strikes. Home plate don't move."-Leroy "Satchel" Paige
My adopted son Matt Downs . Utility Infielder with a Bat !
by nvsfg on Jan 13, 2009 5:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
let's have some fun
overrated: Noonan
He can hit for average and will play a poor 2B. Ray Durham with less power.
underrated: Tanner
A poor man’s Andrew Miller. Or a flameout: what can I say, betting on a pitcher is a risk.
slight: Jason Jarvis.
A lunkhead with stuff? This is exactly the right organization. Sign him up. But see above.
by wcw on Jan 12, 2009 10:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
What makes you think Noonan is bad at second defensively?
by Dan from NM on Jan 12, 2009 10:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
"poor" is probably overstating the case
..but Ray Durham is not. Durham has played an average 2B for his career, which I feel is roughly Noonan’s likely defensive path.
by wcw on Jan 13, 2009 10:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Average sounds more realistic. Keep in mind he was converted from shortstop.
Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
by raisingcain on Jan 13, 2009 4:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Overrated: Rafael Rodriguez (until he does something, he’s overrated IMO)
Underrated: Eh, I think we did a fairly good job actually, but I’ll go with Jesus
Slight: Jarvis/Rohlinger
Giants! Giants! HELP US GOD!
by j14 on Jan 12, 2009 10:22 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Underrated: Eh, I think we did a fairly good job actually, but I’ll go with Jesus
I think you’re confusing this list with the “Official McCovey Chronicles Deity List”. But I’ll have to agree with you…putting Jesus below Buddha was just plain silly.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Jan 13, 2009 10:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m gonna keep voting for Osiris until he makes the list, dammit!
Adoptive father to the All-Father. Does that make me the All-Grandfather?
by EliminateMe on Jan 13, 2009 11:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Zeus would be higher up if he could just keep it in his pants.
by scout6 on Jan 13, 2009 1:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Overrated: Pucetas (sorry OGC)
Underrated: Aaron King Jesus Guzman
Slight: Jarvis? Maybe Hedrick? Culberson, as a slight consolation to Cam Woody maybe….
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
by baetown415 on Jan 12, 2009 10:51 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
1) Most overrated on our list – Rafael Rodriguez
2) Most underrated on our list – EME after fine 2008 season and nice follow-up in PRWL
3) Biggest slight – Jason Jarvis
My biggest concern is that there are only a couple of upper minor talents.
by wilriv21 on Jan 12, 2009 10:52 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Oh wilriv and EME, it’s a match made in heaven.
by cornball on Jan 13, 2009 12:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I just hope Lucy isn’t jealous.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
by jcb9 on Jan 13, 2009 1:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Overrated: Wendell Fairley
Underrated: Joe Martinez (got a strange feeling when it comes to him)
Slight: Ryan Rohlinger
Todd Jennings: If he's on the DL, he can't suck as much, right?
by Speedforthewin on Jan 12, 2009 11:53 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Joey Martinez!!!
Would love to see him stumble into a couple big club starts this season (ala Matt Palmer), just to see how his stuff translates to the bigs. My understanding is that “stuff” concerns are the main thing with him, because it’s kinda hard to argue with his basic stats (or were they inflated by Norwich).
by lucecooler on Jan 13, 2009 7:48 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree, speed, on all three categories!
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005.
by Lyle on Jan 14, 2009 7:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Recount!
I accuse everyone of improprieties and tomfoolery.
Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jan 13, 2009 1:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
SloIsLonelyForTheNormColeman
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
by jcb9 on Jan 13, 2009 1:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
1. Fairley
2. Aaron King
3. MIKE MCBRYDE. GODDAMN.
Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jan 13, 2009 1:23 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
1.Overrated: Pucetas
2. Underrated: all the guys who got a cup of coffee.
There’s a couple guys that I don’t think we’ve underrated but who are in a position to really jump up that list. Angel turns in a good performance in San Jose and he’s beck to being the #1 prospect. If Scott Barnes brings those numbers to AA, he’shooting into the top 5. Thomas Neal is another guy that gives me a good feeling, but who’s rated pretty accurately based on what he’s done.
We don't really have that much pitching depth. We don't really have that much pitching depth. FOR GOD SAKE, VERUCA, DON'T GO FAKE TRADING JONATHAN SANCHEZ. We don't really have that much pitching depth
by oldjacket on Jan 13, 2009 6:32 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Yay, thanks Marcello.
1. Pucetas, he’s really not that different from Ben Snyder who was ranked #29.
2. Ben Snyder? I think he could have been much closer to #20.
3. Mike McBryde.
by xanthan on Jan 13, 2009 6:35 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Marcello, thanks for doing this – really enjoyed it.
Most overrated: Roger Kieschnick
Most underrated: Jose Casilla
Slighted: no one
I just don’t get the Kieschnick love. I guess I just have to accept that anyone with any kind of power is going to be vastly overrated by Giants fans no matter how many holes there are in his game or how unlikely he is to get to the majors (see D’Alessio, Andrew). Runners-up would be Ishikawa (a platoon-candidate, average-hitting 1B), Barnes (a good prospect, but one for whom a LOT will have to break right) and Crawford (an athlete who has never performed).
I like Casilla, but he’s really young, so it’s not like I think he should be in the top-10 or anything. I’d just put him a bit higher. I think Angel is underrated, which is scary-good news. I also think Tanner is underrated by a lot of people – he’s going to be 21 next year in AA and he’s performed very well at every level. And, of course, my son is underrated by everyone, including Giants management. Get to the US soon, son!
I don’t think missing out on the 30th best prospect in our or any system is a slight, since after around the top-15 guys, the remaining people in the system are all a complete crap-shoot.
Hector Sanchez: really getting tired of playing baseball in foreign countries...
by tedfordfan on Jan 13, 2009 6:45 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I like Roger K. this-very-minute but I agree that he’s got a lot of problems to fix before he climbs the ladder. I think he’s a pretty volatile prospect. Comparing him to Andy D. is a little harsh, though. Roger K. can at least play a more important position, defensively and should stay in the corner OF.
by xanthan on Jan 13, 2009 6:48 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And one more thought! I love the numbers Hector Sanchez has put up, but I tend to find myself treating DSL numbers really harshly. I want to see him in the states and producing, then we’ll talk.
by xanthan on Jan 13, 2009 6:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
But Hector is such a good boy!
The comp w/ Andy D. was harsh, but rhetorical to make a point. Roger is 10x the prospect that Andy was, but I think he’s overvalued because of DINGERZ!!! which is really ironic, because most of the posters here claim to have a much more elevated sense of statistical evaluation.
/sarcasm off now.
Hector Sanchez: really getting tired of playing baseball in foreign countries...
by tedfordfan on Jan 13, 2009 11:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Kieschnick, I guess my thinking is summed up like this: if a 3rd round draft pick who signed for slot money cracks our top-10 prospects list, we’re not nearly as strong a system as we thought.
Hector Sanchez: really getting tired of playing baseball in foreign countries...
by tedfordfan on Jan 13, 2009 11:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Eh, he was projected as a potential 1st/2nd round pick. What he has are walks and dingerz. Our very own Adam Dunn, only with better defense and in RF. Check out the scouting report on him here.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jan 13, 2009 11:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I love these scouting reports
They could make Charlie Brown’s curveball sound menacing (that’s the word they’d use too). I do have to say I like Roger Kiealkcjhlhisnek, if not only for his name, than his bloodline. He’s obviously extremely athletic, let’s hope that can translate to baseball player.
by Mrbasepaul on Jan 14, 2009 12:01 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I thought up one more question
Where would you slot Travis Denker on this list?
I would probably have him somewhere around 8-10.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jan 13, 2009 7:32 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I’d slot him about 10.
We don't really have that much pitching depth. We don't really have that much pitching depth. FOR GOD SAKE, VERUCA, DON'T GO FAKE TRADING JONATHAN SANCHEZ. We don't really have that much pitching depth
by oldjacket on Jan 13, 2009 7:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Probably 9
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
by baetown415 on Jan 13, 2009 11:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
TRAVIS DENKER IS THE MOST OVERRATED PLAYER IN THE HISTORY OF BASEBALL
by Natto on Jan 13, 2009 1:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
I’d say 15-20.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Jan 13, 2009 10:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
because we have a lot of 22 year old middle infielders who put up good numbers in AAA last year?
We don't really have that much pitching depth. We don't really have that much pitching depth. FOR GOD SAKE, VERUCA, DON'T GO FAKE TRADING JONATHAN SANCHEZ. We don't really have that much pitching depth
by oldjacket on Jan 14, 2009 7:55 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Bumgarner, Posey, Alderson, Villalona are no brainers. Noonan is three years younger, has more upside, especially when you consider defense and baserunning, and scouts love him. Sosa wins both on upside and on likelihood of reaching the majors. Gillaspie is considered a lock to make the majors, and should be an average 3B. Rodriguez is obviously a question mark, but he just kills Denk on upside. Same with Fairley and Kiesc. And I don’t know about you, but I’d definitely take Ishikawa over him. That’s 12. Now you’ve got all kind of suspects like Martinez, English, and Snyder (what’s he doing at #29?). I could maybe see taking Denk over both Fairley and Kiesc, putting him at #10, but even that’s a bit of a stretch. Anything higher than 10 sounds crazy to me.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Jan 14, 2009 10:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sosa wins both on upside and on likelihood of reaching the majors
I disagree with this. Denker has already been in the majors, and Sosa is a starting pitcher who has never pitched above A-ball or pitched more than 125 innings in a pro season. Even then, it’s much harder to find a 22-year-old middle infielder who can put up an above-average OBP and SLG in AAA than it is to find a 21-year-old pitcher who averages a K per inning in A-ball.
by Grant on Jan 14, 2009 12:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's close
I think Denker’s upside is an average or slightly below average 2B. Sosa’s in an above average starter. Re: Likelihood of reaching the majors, I just think that even if Sosa fails as a starter, he’s a near lock to at least become a decent reliever.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Jan 15, 2009 9:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
it’s close with Sosa who’s (reasonably) eigth on the list. It’s not close with the list of potential swingmen, 6th starters and “who knows what we have” guys that largely occupy the 12- 20 slots.
I’ll grant you that Denker’s defense is the wildcard. I don’t really know how to properly evaluate it, and his scouting reviews are mostly “bad range, good hands”. Still, I think if we’re evaluating potential, a good hitting, average fielding second baseman is a very valuable thing.
We don't really have that much pitching depth. We don't really have that much pitching depth. FOR GOD SAKE, VERUCA, DON'T GO FAKE TRADING JONATHAN SANCHEZ. We don't really have that much pitching depth
by oldjacket on Jan 15, 2009 9:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
his scouting reviews are mostly "bad range, good hands".
Really? I’ve never read anyone say he’s got good hands. BA (John Manual) said “He’s got stiff hands and limited range and arm. He sounds like a left fielder”
BP said he’s got “stone hands” and an “iron glove”.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Jan 16, 2009 8:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Overrated: I’m on board with all the Pucetas haters on this one, but because no one mentions him, I’ll go with Conor Gillaspie. What I saw of him in college and what I read in his scouting report, I don’t see a lot to separate him from say Brian Buscher (except without the D). Buscher’s a perfectly usable player and was once a Top 10 prospect of ours, but I don’t remember anybody going gaga over him and suggesting he could be in the bigs in the 1st full season.
Underrated: I’ll maintain my consistency and say Jorge Bucardo. Though Casillo, King, and Adrianza are all further down than I’d have put them.
Slight: Though I never had an inkling to vote for him, Charlie Culberson going from 50th pick in the draft to never even making the polls of the Top 30 is a pretty significant slide if it’s not a slight.
Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!
by Roger on Jan 13, 2009 8:24 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Jorge Bucardo
He was a guy I had heard nothing about until you requested him for the list. Since then, after looking around for info on him, I’ve become a big fan. I’m excited to see what he and his brother can do this coming year.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jan 13, 2009 11:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of slides
What does that say for Jackson Williams, chosen 8 picks before Culberson?
Adoptive father to the All-Father. Does that make me the All-Grandfather?
by EliminateMe on Jan 13, 2009 11:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Catcherabilityness!!
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
by baetown415 on Jan 13, 2009 12:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Wonder how hard he throws. Maybe it’s time to toe the rubber.
by xanthan on Jan 13, 2009 12:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Nah
Supposedly Jacks calls a decent game, strong arm and even if he doesn’t hit like Cain he could make it to The Show as a career back-up catcher.
by wilriv21 on Jan 13, 2009 12:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I saw him on TV a couple of times in college and remember thinking that he was an impressive defensive catcher.
by cornball on Jan 13, 2009 1:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I read a report somewhere this fall from Baggs that suggested the organization was actually pretty disappointed with his defense this year. When you’re hitting below the Mendoza line and they’re disappointed in your D? It’s serious uh-oh time.
Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!
by Roger on Jan 13, 2009 1:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sabean overvalues “toolsiness” with his position player draft picks.
With free agents, Sabean overvalues previous/peak experience, even if those peak seasons are several years removed. Sabes is a sucker for things such as previous number of gold gloves, all star games, World Series appearances— rather than— how good will this guy be next year?
Noah Lowry?
by Kid Fresh on Jan 13, 2009 2:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Jackson makes a fine bullpen catcher…although I don’t think they’re usually drafted so high
by Mrbasepaul on Jan 14, 2009 12:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
overrated: Fairley—I like the guy, but has not shown us much in the minors, certainly not power.
underrated: Hector Sanchez I guess, since he young, with power. Thomas Neal will be moving up and making us reconsider our votes too.
slight: Justin Hedrick
adopter/sponsor of "Go, Antoan" Richardson
by foothillsfan on Jan 13, 2009 10:28 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Overrated: English. I just don’t see it.
Underrated: Matos should probably be in the low 20s.
Slight: Pichardo.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
by groug on Jan 13, 2009 1:22 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Jesus Guzman is the most underrated prospect in the history of McC Community Prospect lists.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on Jan 13, 2009 1:59 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
…but he will rise.
They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long
by bgunn on Jan 13, 2009 2:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
if any prospect that the giants had drafted put up those kind of AA numbers, he’d easily crack the top ten, even if he is 24.
by giantdonkey on Jan 13, 2009 5:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think a lot of people didn’t know the Jesus until fairly recently; but I’d have to say that from the sound of it, he has a great chance of making it to the bigs as long as Judas stays out of the way
by Mrbasepaul on Jan 14, 2009 12:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Am I missing something here? Haven’t Guzman’s numbers been accomplished in extremely hitter-friendly parks? Let’s see how he does in Norwich for awhile before getting too excited about him. Fresno probably won’t reveal his flaws sufficiently.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005.
by Lyle on Jan 14, 2009 7:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Over-rated: OF Wendell Fairley should not be in the top 20; let alone #12. (Call it the “toolsy” trap). SP Kevin Pucetas, after a very pedestrian performance in the AFL, should be knocked down about 5 spots.
Under-rated: EME, very solid season in AA, and ready to bust out in Fresno next year.
Slighted: McBryde, but this is hardly a travesty. Great list. Extremely informative.
Noah Lowry?
by Kid Fresh on Jan 13, 2009 2:12 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Pedestrian AFL? Were we following the same Fall League?
4.33 ERA (good for 10th best among starters)
1.13 WHIP
35.1 IP
31 H
28 K
9 BB
Against competition drawn predominantly from AA and AAA, while he’s never pitched above high A.
What’s your standard for “above average”? Bumgarner’s year in Augusta?
Hector Sanchez: really getting tired of playing baseball in foreign countries...
by tedfordfan on Jan 14, 2009 6:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
One key figure
There is one key figure you left out of Kevin Pucetas’ AZFL stats: 9 homers in those 35.1 innings. Perhaps he was merely working on a pitch, but if so, I don’t think it worked.
by sharksrog on Jan 14, 2009 11:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
overrated:
Kieschnick – not a top 10 guy yet, though he does have a higher ceiling than most. The likelihood of him reaching that ceiling are lower than most.)
EME – injury-prone 24/25 year old DH/OF in AA for the 3rd time with little power. I’m willing to have my mind changed by his performance in Fresno this year, but right now, he’s no longer even a top 30 guy. He has good on base skills, but a corner OF (with questionable defense) should have more than 21 extra base hits in 396 ABs.
underrated:
Neal – Finally healthy, he had a chance to show what he can do over a longer period of time. that was just a taste He’ll look even better in the Cal League. Breakout candidate of 2009.
Ishikawa – power is for real. defense is for real. He finally put it together and is the starting 1b for the Giants. what more do you want?
slighted:
Rohlinger – good, versatile player. Kevin Frandsen with more power – scrappy guy who can play all over the IF (mostly as a 3b). I can see him having a long career as a utility guy. he should, at least, be on the list.
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Jan 13, 2009 2:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Overrated: Nick Noonan
I just think he’s overrated in general. He’s probably not the most overrated on this list in terms of ranking, but I don’t like seeing him at 5 right now.
Underrated: Hector Sanchez
Doesn’t get a lot of buzz, but there is a lot more intrigue in this player than there is in at least half of the people ranked ahead of him
by NeifiChicken on Jan 13, 2009 2:47 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Over- Pucetas, never been much of a fan and not sure why he’s gotten the amount of hype that he has
Under- how can you go with anyone other than Jesus? although Sanchez is a good pick too
Slight- don’t see anyone who is a really big one, you could make an argument for a couple guys sneaking into the last 3 or so spots but I think the list is pretty good as it stands
by foolintherain on Jan 13, 2009 2:48 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Over-Sosa, Adrianza
Under-Martinez, Matos
Slight-I dunno. I couldn’t have named you 30 prospects.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Jan 13, 2009 3:06 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
are we gonna see bumgarner in the majors this year?
I watch the giants on tv a lot and have been to more than a few games, but am not a fan per se, though I do root for them. so I’m clueless, but curious.
by sharks on Jan 13, 2009 4:27 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
prolly not
Unless the Bocock Express is blowing guys up before they’re ready again.
We don't really have that much pitching depth. We don't really have that much pitching depth. FOR GOD SAKE, VERUCA, DON'T GO FAKE TRADING JONATHAN SANCHEZ. We don't really have that much pitching depth
by oldjacket on Jan 13, 2009 4:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice!
Unless the Bocock Express is blowing guys…again
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jan 13, 2009 5:12 PM PST up reply actions 4 recs
I rec'd it
We don't really have that much pitching depth. We don't really have that much pitching depth. FOR GOD SAKE, VERUCA, DON'T GO FAKE TRADING JONATHAN SANCHEZ. We don't really have that much pitching depth
by oldjacket on Jan 13, 2009 6:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
outstanding Dowdification.
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Jan 13, 2009 7:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe a September call up, as a pat on the back, but I would guess not.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jan 13, 2009 5:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I didn’t realize how young he was. Heard he dominated in the minors, just didn’t realize it was A ball. probably should have looked that up first huh?
by sharks on Jan 13, 2009 5:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yup, he’s pretty young. I think last year is an indication that the Giants aren’t interested in pushing him too fast. Just based on results, he easily could have been promoted by midseason last year, however the Giants kept him at the same level all year.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jan 13, 2009 6:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I always thought that as a good idea with a player’s first year, especially if they are making a run at the playoffs. Next yr you might see him jump to AA, but after doing some actual research I bet it doesn’t happen unless it’s real late in the year, and even then you see it a lot with young pitchers where they are rushed due to the need for quality starters and then struggle big time.
by sharks on Jan 13, 2009 6:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
err….was he in high A or low A….maybe he does make it to AA. shit I gotta watch talking about things I don’t know anything about.
by sharks on Jan 13, 2009 6:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Neither, just A. He might be jumped up to AA. I am hoping that Posey, Bumgarner, Alderson, and Sosa are all put at the same level so they can start working together.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jan 13, 2009 6:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No need to work together
Why rush Bummy? Connecticut could fill its rotation with Snyder, Alderson, Tanner, Maday and a couple of other pitchers from the mix of Oseguera, Sosa and Barnes.
by wilriv21 on Jan 13, 2009 6:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
There is some correlation between the length of time a catcher and pitcher have worked together and that pitchers success. I don’t really think throwing Bumgarner up to AA is that aggressive or rushed. Plus, it keeps him out of the offensive Cal league, which would offset some of the increased difficulty level.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jan 13, 2009 7:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
See no benefit of Bumgarner beginning the season in AA. Bumgarner could/should begin the season in Hi A San Jose. If after a few months of excellence then promote him to AA to finish his season. This way he is still turbotracked and his confidence level still high.
by wilriv21 on Jan 13, 2009 7:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I guess that would be fine. I’d just like them to get time together as soon as possible.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jan 13, 2009 7:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
even if they left him in A ball
you’d have to think they would still play with each other eventually. however I also don’t think AA would be rushing him, you can put him there let him stuggle slightly then just leave him there for next year. I wouldn’t classify a drop in stats as a “setback” so long as they don’t continue for more than 2 years. At the same time I agree with not rushing him if he were to dominate in AA, I think you step him up slowly given his age.
by sharks on Jan 14, 2009 12:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I see now the giants have 3 A ball clubs
by sharks on Jan 14, 2009 12:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not AAA clubs, but 3 A clubs
The Giants have long had short-season Salem-Keizer, Low A Augusta and High A San Jose.
by sharksrog on Jan 14, 2009 11:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
NO! Please do not rush the kid
Do not rush the kid. He has yet to play above low A ball and is still only 19 years of age. The Giants have control of Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and Zito at least through 2010. Cain has a team option for 2011 while Lowry has a club option for 2010.
Joe Martinez and Kevin Pucetas should be ready by 2010. Other possible pitchers available by 2010 could be Jesse English, Tim Alderson and Henry Sosa. There should be no need to push/rush Bumgarner.
by wilriv21 on Jan 13, 2009 5:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure
I’m not sure that pitching Madison Bumgarner in AA would be rushing him.
Let me ask you this: Were you more impressed by Tim Alderson’s very good season in High A or Mad Bum’s highly dominant season in Low A? Personally, I think that while both pitchers were impressive, Mad Bum outpitched Timmy Two.
Now, it wouldn’t make sense not to promote Alderson to AA. If Bumgarner’s performance one level lower was even more impressive than Alderson’s, why NOT pitch Mad Bum in AA?
That said, the Giants have a plethora of candidates for the Connecticut rotation. While it isn’t impossible that Mad Bum could become their #1 starter, if the Giants have any doubt at all about Madison’s ability to handle AA they would be incentivized by all the other potential AA starters to promote him only to San Jose.
by sharksrog on Jan 13, 2009 11:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What if Bumgarner continues to put up Timmah-like numbers? I say that the Giants most definitely might pull him up for a few September lattes, although it probably won’t be anything more than that. But look at the Dodgers and Kershaw; I don’t see Bumgarner being any less of a prospect than him…
by Mrbasepaul on Jan 14, 2009 12:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Lincecum, Mad Bum, Kershaw
Clayton Kershaw was actually drafted four spots ahead of Tim Lincecum, being taken #6 overall in the 2006 draft, while fortunately Tim fell to the Giants at #10. Madison Bumgarner was drafted at that same #10 spot a year later.
Lincecum completed three years of college ball before being drafted, while both Kershaw and Bumgarner were drafted out of high school.
Lincecum reached the majors at age 22, while the prodigious Kershaw reached the bigs at age 20.
Bumgarner is slightly behind Kershaw’s development, depending on how one looks at things. Mad Bum is actually a year and a half younger than Clayton, making their seasons a tiny bit difficult to compare.
Mad Bum was highly dominant in Low A his first full season after being drafted. Signed late in his draft year, he didn’t pitch at all in that potential first professional season, jumping right into Low A at the age of 18 and putting one of the best performances in league history.
Kershaw played primarily in High A that first full season after being drafted, much as did the Giants’ Tim Alerson last season. Kershaw had about the same level of success in High A as Alderson before being moved up to AA for his last 24 innings that season.
Kershaw began the 2008 season — his second full season of professional ball — in AA, and was moved up to the parent Dodgers in time to exceed 100 major league innings.
Bumgarner might also start his second full professional season in AA and will certainly start out at least in High A. Will Mad Bum be able to rise all the way to the majors in 2009?
Based on his outstanding 2008 season, it certainly wouldn’t seem impossible. But if we are discussing whether he should begin the season in A or AA ball, it would seem unlikely that Mad Bum would be up before September and even that might depend on how the Giants’ 40-man roster looks at that point. If the Giants bring up Mad Bum in September, they will need to expose one more player to the Rule 5 draft.
Now, is Mad Bum as good a prospect as Kershaw? One could make that argument, although at this point I myself would choose Kershaw.
Why? Like Mad Bum, Kershaw appears to have star power (although to be honest, I would give Madison a slight edge in that regard). But Clayton has already reached the majors, while Bumgarner needs to advance four more levels to do so.
And we might not want to forget that the Giants tried to get Mad Bum to change his delivery, apparently fearing future injury from his existing mechanics. Mad Bum quickly went back to the old mechanics, and that was when he game truly flourished as a professional.
One thing I will say: If I were the Giants, I would be careful not to overwork Bumgarner’s arm. But I would advance him as quickly as his abilities allow. If you have an arm about which you have some health concerns, doesn’t it make sense to get it to the majors as quickly as possible to get as much out of it as it has? PItchers can get better over time, but healthy arms seldom get healthier as time passes.
In a best-case scenario, Mad Bum continues to dominate, even as beginning the season at the AA level and forces his way to the majors sometime in 2009. Barring injury, I would expect him to be up no later than September of 2010. At that time, he will be the same age Kershaw will be during this upcoming spring training.
In an absolute best-case scenario, Mad Bum becomes a left-handed bookend ace to line up with Tim Lincecum. In a worst-case scenario he becomes injured and becomes just another pitcher to demonstrate TINSTAAPP.
by sharksrog on Jan 14, 2009 11:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Overrated: Kieschnick
Underrated: Matos and English
Slight: Kelvin Pichardo and Michael Ambort
by StickRat on Jan 13, 2009 5:09 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
follow up to my first stupid question:
who makes it to majors first, bumgarner or posey?
by sharks on Jan 13, 2009 6:17 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
posey
by at least a year and a half.
by giantdonkey on Jan 13, 2009 6:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe a stretch
I agree that Gerald will herald a call to the bigs ahead of Mad Bum, but I think a year and a half might be stretching it.
You’re probably thinking Posey at midseason and Mad Bum not before 2011. I wouldn’t think the Giants would bring Buster up unless they were going to start him, which seeming would mean that Bengie Molina would have to be hurt, traded or failing. Even if Buster is recalled in July, presumably with Bengie then being traded, isn’t it likely that Mad Bum will be up in September of 2010, which would slightly beat the year and a half?
by sharksrog on Jan 13, 2009 11:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
My guess is that Posey comes up sometime in 2010, and MadBum in late 2011. That could very well be a year and a half. If Bengie is traded this July, as he probably should be, I could imagine Posey starting 2010 in SF. Personally, I’d make him a super-utility guy for that year, just to get him acclimated to the majors. If his defense proves to be adequate, he could take over at catcher in 2011. Or, if we need him elsewhere, then at another position.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005.
by Lyle on Jan 14, 2009 9:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Who would you have catching for SF in 2010? If Sandoval, do you believe he can be an everyday ML catcher even after many scouting reports believe he cannot?
Agree with the ETA on Bumgarner.
by wilriv21 on Jan 14, 2009 9:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Problem is lots of scouting reports seem to suggest he can. Really I’m not sure I’ve seen many suggestions outside the Giants organization itself that he can’t be a quality major league catcher. From a tools standpoint, he’s obviously got the arm and release (he’s consistently been one of the best in the minors at cutting down SB attempts); despite stated concerns on his agility based on his body, he’s also consistently had some of the lowest passed ball totals in the minors leagues while catching. He rarely makes errors. So it appears the “issues” are in those vague intangible areas. Is he bad at calling games? It would certainly be difficult to prove it from the numbers that the pitching staff he caught in SJ last year were putting up.
Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!
by Roger on Jan 14, 2009 10:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Check out recent FanPost on Pablo Sandoval
The BA writer in that linked story had some interesting observations & stats about Pablo’s potential to not only be adequate but above average as a backstop (e.g., very low PB rate, cannon arm, etc.). Interesting comparisons about size concerns, too, pointing out that “big” guys never played SS before the arrival of a certain Mr. Ripken, Jr… The article is worth a read.
Giants: World Series Champions...in 2011.
by Giants_Junkie on Jan 14, 2009 11:17 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If Posey hits, he’ll be blowing up pitchers in the majors this year.
I’d like to see marcello make something dirty out of that.
We don't really have that much pitching depth. We don't really have that much pitching depth. FOR GOD SAKE, VERUCA, DON'T GO FAKE TRADING JONATHAN SANCHEZ. We don't really have that much pitching depth
by oldjacket on Jan 13, 2009 6:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Haha
I can’t imagine how I possibly could…
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jan 13, 2009 6:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
THATS WHAT SHE SAID
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Jan 13, 2009 7:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
this count?
if posey hits he’ll be blowing…pitchers in the majors
lame attempt I know
by sharks on Jan 14, 2009 12:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah i figured posey as well, being a college player.
by sharks on Jan 14, 2009 12:24 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Over/Under
I’d say, with my little knowledge of these prospects, that Roger K is actually, dare I say it, under-rated? I think he’s gonna turn into a good major-leaguer. And how do I know? I have no idea.
But as for Posey, he seems to be what they say, a 10 year all-star. I really hope so.
Bumgarner and Timmah and Cain in the same rotation sounds really scary if the chips fall right. Can you imagine? and a 50 year old Randy Johnson too!!!
Does anyone think Barry can still grow another 7 inches or so and become the next Randy Johnson, or has he missed his last growth spurt?
by Mrbasepaul on Jan 14, 2009 12:11 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Does anyone think Barry can still grow another 7 inches or so
That’s what Paris said…
They say some players get out of bed hitting; Pablo Sandoval doesn't wait that long
by bgunn on Jan 14, 2009 9:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m sure barry pray’s every night he’ll become the next big unit
by sharks on Jan 14, 2009 3:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Question:
I was trying to go down this list and see what level these guys would all start at, and then also estimate their trajectory to the bigs (i.e. what year). The first question is more straightforward, has there been a post on this? I guess the 2nd is more of a thread starter…
by lucecooler on Jan 14, 2009 7:42 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
It's interesting
That pretty much nobody has mentioned Brandon Crawford as most overrated on the list. I don’t think he is, but there was a lot of complaining about him being ranked too high at the time of voting.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
by jcb9 on Jan 14, 2009 11:46 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
First of all, I would like to say that I feel the list is pretty darn good. I see no one on this list that would be more than 8-10 spaces different from my final personal list. Reading comments from others has changed my perception of several prospects.
Most Overrated: Kieschnick, Crawford – people treat these two like first round draft choices and they fell to the third and fourth rounds for a reason and remember, Kieschnick only batted .236 in his only professional at bats.
Most Underrated: Bocock and Jackson Williams – Both never even got mentioned in our discussions and both are premium defensive players playing premium defensive positions. If either can improve enough to bat like an average major league player, they will have long major league careers.
Biggest Slight – Pichardo – He has good upside as a reliever and had a good season last year. He’s not too old for his level and he will get plenty of opportunity to succeed at AAA and maybe the majors this year. Not sure how he doesn’t make the top 30.
by nelson95 on Jan 14, 2009 7:55 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
kieschnick
While I agree he was a bit overrated, I hope you’re not basing too much of your opinion on those 110 winter league at-bats.
And also, although the average was low, the overall line wasn’t bad: .333/.482/.815
Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
by raisingcain on Jan 14, 2009 8:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Kieschnick
That’s the point—-we have nothing to base his performance on besides his winter league at-bats and his draft position (and his college season) and none justify that high a ranking. I’m not saying that Kieschnick is not a good prospect, but out of the 30, he had the most variation with my list (about 8 positions too high) I felt.
by nelson95 on Jan 14, 2009 11:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It seemed you were overvaluing his 110 pro ab’s. College stats are somewhat useful too. And I’m guessing many people realize his stats aren’t great. He probably got some extra support because he’s a more “exciting” prospect (upside) so more casual fans are excited. That being said, I think you could really go either way when placing high upside/low probability guys and vice versa. Just pointing out that saying “well, he only hit .236 so he sucks” is kind of wrong. (Also notice, in my earlier post, that when you look past batting average, he really did fine.)
Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
by raisingcain on Jan 15, 2009 3:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I never said he sucks. My point is that he hasn’t earned a top 10 ranking.
by nelson95 on Jan 15, 2009 9:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure..
Bocock will ever be in the majors again.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Jan 15, 2009 12:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ll eat my socks if he makes it back.
Never has a poster been more correct in the history of the internet. Ever! - ResDog on yours truly
by jcb9 on Jan 15, 2009 12:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Bocock
You may very well be right. I thought at some point we would get into a defense vs. offense discussion as it effects prospect value. I think most around here would rather give more value to offensive potential. Bocock obviously looked terrible in the majors offensively last year and it didn’t help that he got injured when he was demoted to the minors and missed the rest of the season. My point is that if Bocock is healthy and shows some offensive improvement, he easily could find himself in the majors again. Ochoa leaving means that he only has Renteria and Burris ahead of him. I actually thought Jake Wald was a big surprise for being invited to major league camp. You would think that Bocock would be ahead of Wald on the depth chart.
by nelson95 on Jan 15, 2009 9:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Bocock must be ahead of Wald, since he leapfrogged Wald last April.
Wald got signed maybe cause of Ochoa electing free agency when dropped from the 40man for the Big Unit. Somebody has to play SS in Fresno and Conn.
Wald has never looked like a hitter. K’d 26% of ABs last year while OPS a rousing 707 in Conn.
Yet he may play most days in Fresno, if they insist on Burriss playing 2B. (lots of us want Burriss at short)
adopter/sponsor of "Go, Antoan" Richardson
by foothillsfan on Jan 15, 2009 11:02 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
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