This is a bit of a cross-post, but I wanted to share it with McC anyways. I posted my WAR projections for the 2009 team in the fanshot sections a week or so ago, if you missed it the first time you can find the link, here:
(I've got the team projected to 82-83 wins right now)
I explain some methodology stuff and some of my assumptions.
I've been playing some with EditGrid -- an online spreadsheet manager thing -- and I popped out some graphs -- that sounds weird and or painful -- this morning from my WAR projections. I'm a graph guy and it was a good excuse to play around with EditGrid's graphing functions.
The graphs aren't anything super-serious, but I think they give a decent representation of just where the wins are projected to come from next year.
I like this pie chart because it shows -- in my opinion -- how much I think teams, sports writers, etc. can overrate the impact of a bullpen. I really like our improved bullpen, but in the big scheme of things, bullpens don't add a lot of wins to a team. You tend to get the meat-and-potatoes from your position players -- in part because they both create and prevent runs -- and your starting pitching -- because they throw more innings than your bullpen. If you want to spend on making your team better, you would get the most bang for your buck by improving your starting lineup and rotation.
Here's the hitters projected for 2009. This includes defense as well. Rowand and Renteria break the 2-win mark and Randy Winn is pretty close to breaking it. Even with defense factored in, Burriss is probably the weakest full-time -- potentially -- regular for next year's team.
Tim Lincecum is awesome. Matt Cain is very good -- doesn't know how to win gamez, hurrr -- and Zito is way overpaid, but you already knew that. I thought it was interesting that both Johnson and Sanchez are on par in terms of wins added.
This bar graph includes leverage scores for the relievers, so keep that in mind. Wilson got a projected leverage score of 1.80 for the closer role. Affeldt got a 1.30 for the setup role. Wilson and Affedlt should be the go-to guys for the Giants next year in tight, leveraged situations. Sergio Romo should add some stability to the bullpen and Bob Howry is a nice gamble. Hinshaw, Yabu, and Taschner are the weakest relievers in the bullpen and should be used accordingly.
Also, remember that all of WAR projections are adjusted by playing time. So don't freak out if Player A is out ranking Player B, it could be PT related.