Pie Chartz: 2009 Giants WAR Graphs
by xanthan on Jan 12, 2009 9:59 AM PST
62 comments
This is a bit of a cross-post, but I wanted to share it with McC anyways. I posted my WAR projections for the 2009 team in the fanshot sections a week or so ago, if you missed it the first time you can find the link, here:
http://www.baycityball.com/2008/12/31/final-2009-giants-war-projection/
(I've got the team projected to 82-83 wins right now)
I explain some methodology stuff and some of my assumptions.
I've been playing some with EditGrid -- an online spreadsheet manager thing -- and I popped out some graphs -- that sounds weird and or painful -- this morning from my WAR projections. I'm a graph guy and it was a good excuse to play around with EditGrid's graphing functions.
The graphs aren't anything super-serious, but I think they give a decent representation of just where the wins are projected to come from next year.
I like this pie chart because it shows -- in my opinion -- how much I think teams, sports writers, etc. can overrate the impact of a bullpen. I really like our improved bullpen, but in the big scheme of things, bullpens don't add a lot of wins to a team. You tend to get the meat-and-potatoes from your position players -- in part because they both create and prevent runs -- and your starting pitching -- because they throw more innings than your bullpen. If you want to spend on making your team better, you would get the most bang for your buck by improving your starting lineup and rotation.
Here's the hitters projected for 2009. This includes defense as well. Rowand and Renteria break the 2-win mark and Randy Winn is pretty close to breaking it. Even with defense factored in, Burriss is probably the weakest full-time -- potentially -- regular for next year's team.
Tim Lincecum is awesome. Matt Cain is very good -- doesn't know how to win gamez, hurrr -- and Zito is way overpaid, but you already knew that. I thought it was interesting that both Johnson and Sanchez are on par in terms of wins added.
This bar graph includes leverage scores for the relievers, so keep that in mind. Wilson got a projected leverage score of 1.80 for the closer role. Affeldt got a 1.30 for the setup role. Wilson and Affedlt should be the go-to guys for the Giants next year in tight, leveraged situations. Sergio Romo should add some stability to the bullpen and Bob Howry is a nice gamble. Hinshaw, Yabu, and Taschner are the weakest relievers in the bullpen and should be used accordingly.
Also, remember that all of WAR projections are adjusted by playing time. So don't freak out if Player A is out ranking Player B, it could be PT related.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Zito...
I’m surprised he is that much better than replacement….seriously
by NeifiChicken on Jan 12, 2009 10:03 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
For whatever reason, a few systems still remain semi-optimistic on Zito.
I have Zito projected as a 4.65 FIP starter next season in 180 IP. Now that CHONE is out, I might want to tweak him a little but he still projects very well in Marcel and ZiPS. FWIW, CHONE has Zito at a 4.88 FIP and the BJ projections have him at 4.56. I think the ZiPS FIP has Zito around 4.50.
by xanthan on Jan 12, 2009 10:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And, I’ve used Marcel for most of the pitching projections, I believe. When I put together my WAR projections, CHONE wasn’t out yet.
by xanthan on Jan 12, 2009 10:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
is Marcel projecting the hitters as well?
We don't really have that much pitching depth. We don't really have that much pitching depth. FOR GOD SAKE, VERUCA, DON'T GO FAKE TRADING JONATHAN SANCHEZ. We don't really have that much pitching depth
by oldjacket on Jan 12, 2009 10:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I mainly used the Olivers for hitters. At the time of doing the WAR’s, all I had was Bill James, Marcel, and the Oliver projections. I like the Olivers because they include some things — minor league numbers, park adjustments, etc. — that Marcel doesn’t.
by xanthan on Jan 12, 2009 10:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
the BJ projections have him at 4.56.
That blowjob projection seems a little low. I mean, he is a rich and famous pitcher who also likes to pose for pictures.
Catcher are base running. Hitters are offense.
Only [hella] games left until the end of Zito's contract.
by thehavenot on Jan 12, 2009 11:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Frankly, I need more context for this 4.56 number. Are we talking in terms of frequency, and if so is this on a daily scale, a weekly scale, etc.? Or is 4.56 a qualitative measure, and so is it on a scale of 5, a scale of 10, etc.?
Or perhaps that’s a monetary charge. In which case, are we talking per hour, per service, etc.?
That’s the thing about stats. You always need context to be able to interpret them fully.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jan 12, 2009 12:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
VORBJ?
There are other factors to consider….
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005.
by Lyle on Jan 12, 2009 1:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think VORB is a misleading stat because it implies that those blow jobbing in and around the replacement level are bad at it. The truth is that replacement level for blow jobbers is still well above adequate for just about any lineup. I prefer a similar stat with a lower baseline. Whatever that’s called.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jan 12, 2009 2:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I prefer a similar stat with a lower baseline. Whatever that’s called.
VOHJ
Value Over Hand Job
Still defending Rich Aurilia, and the Niners' classic unis
by wjackalope on Jan 14, 2009 8:21 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Even VOCHL would work, probably.
Value Over Clumsy Hand Job.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jan 14, 2009 9:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Keep in mind that luck is a small contributor. That’s why I prefer to use xBJ.
Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
by raisingcain on Jan 12, 2009 4:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd like to recommend this whole microthread
but VOHJ is the crème de la crème.
So to speak.
Bengie: Like an Aurilia kidney stone, slow-moving and tough to get out.
by juanboy on Jan 14, 2009 10:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This pie tastes like Win!
We don't really have that much pitching depth. We don't really have that much pitching depth. FOR GOD SAKE, VERUCA, DON'T GO FAKE TRADING JONATHAN SANCHEZ. We don't really have that much pitching depth
by oldjacket on Jan 12, 2009 10:06 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
We don't really have that much pitching depth. We don't really have that much pitching depth. FOR GOD SAKE, VERUCA, DON'T GO FAKE TRADING JONATHAN SANCHEZ. We don't really have that much pitching depth
by oldjacket on Jan 12, 2009 10:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I would eat that pie
Sergio Romo will gladly hand you a bench to sit on / GIANTSPACE™ / Adopted brother of the AnVil
by SoFa King Mike on Jan 12, 2009 10:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
the hoverpie is only eaten by the most hovery of individuals
We don't really have that much pitching depth. We don't really have that much pitching depth. FOR GOD SAKE, VERUCA, DON'T GO FAKE TRADING JONATHAN SANCHEZ. We don't really have that much pitching depth
by oldjacket on Jan 12, 2009 10:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
OMG Winn’s in the pie!?!?!?!
/spits out pie
Catcher are base running. Hitters are offense.
Only [hella] games left until the end of Zito's contract.
by thehavenot on Jan 12, 2009 11:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
SOYLENT GREEN IS PEOPLE!!!!
(obligatory)
The 2008-2009 offseason is driving me sane!
by hairball on Jan 12, 2009 1:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
HE PUT BASIL IN THE RATATOUILLE?
Yes….!
WAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH
He’s from Barcelona.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Jan 12, 2009 2:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So are they:
Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jan 13, 2009 3:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, Winn gets some mean regression done to him. Considering he’s been worth 3.4+ WAR 4 of the last 5 years, I’m surprised how much he gets docked.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jan 12, 2009 10:26 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Projected wOBA’s for Winn:
Marcel – .329
Oliver – .332
CHONE – .336
I have him at a .332 wOBA, and the league wOBA set to .332, making him exactly league average. I try to go conservative on the defensive projections, I have Winn as a +8 run RF even though he was like +16 last year.
by xanthan on Jan 12, 2009 10:39 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
+8 makes sense given the last 3 years. I wonder about the wOBA though, and I realize that you’re just going with the projections. Given those projections, .332 wOBA seems right, I just wonder why they all project him so low. Outside of 2006, which looks like an outlier in his career, he has been above average with the bat since 2001 (about +10-15 runs per year).
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jan 12, 2009 11:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Marcel and Oliver have 2006 weighted as 1/3 of his projection, no?
We don't really have that much pitching depth. We don't really have that much pitching depth. FOR GOD SAKE, VERUCA, DON'T GO FAKE TRADING JONATHAN SANCHEZ. We don't really have that much pitching depth
by oldjacket on Jan 12, 2009 11:17 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I believe that Marcel uses the last three years of data with the most recent weighted the heaviest. So, 2006 would be included but his 2007-2008 seasons would be weighted more heavily.
Someone can correct me if that’s wrong.
by xanthan on Jan 12, 2009 11:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That is correct. As for Oliver, they do this:
Stat-wise, the projections are Marcel based. 2008 is weighted at 1.0, 2007 at 0.70, 2006 at 0.49, etc, each preceding season 0.7 times the last.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jan 12, 2009 11:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I don’t know either. Maybe an aging curve of some sort, but I would think that players like Winn would tend to age well. I think he’s got a good chance to beat his +1.95 WAR projection.
by xanthan on Jan 12, 2009 11:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
somehow both you and Xanthan ended up in the upper right quadrant of that graph.
We don't really have that much pitching depth. We don't really have that much pitching depth. FOR GOD SAKE, VERUCA, DON'T GO FAKE TRADING JONATHAN SANCHEZ. We don't really have that much pitching depth
by oldjacket on Jan 12, 2009 11:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
THATS WHAT SHE SAID
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Jan 12, 2009 2:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, really awkwardness overlaps all of those sets
We don't really have that much pitching depth. We don't really have that much pitching depth. FOR GOD SAKE, VERUCA, DON'T GO FAKE TRADING JONATHAN SANCHEZ. We don't really have that much pitching depth
by oldjacket on Jan 12, 2009 11:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
THATS WHAT SHE SAID
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Jan 12, 2009 2:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think your X column...
is a little bit short
by NeifiChicken on Jan 12, 2009 11:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
fuck you, now I want pie.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jan 12, 2009 11:33 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
That is, in fact, what she just said.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005.
by Lyle on Jan 14, 2009 9:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I like pie
especially colored pie. What’s with those candy bars though?
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
by baetown415 on Jan 12, 2009 12:10 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
WHAT IS WITH ALL THIS PIE TALK?!
Sheesh!….I mean, you’d never catch me talking about pie.
by Lars The Wanderer on Jan 12, 2009 12:54 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
anagram of "WHAT IS WITH ALL THIS PIE TALK?!"
WHISTLES AHA. KILL? WHIP AT TIT!
The 2008-2009 offseason is driving me sane!
by hairball on Jan 12, 2009 1:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Should a WAR chart be shaped like a peace symbol?
I think not.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005.
by Lyle on Jan 12, 2009 1:54 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
… winter for Poland and France.
Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below.500
We are at war with Los Angeles. We have always been at war with Los Angles.
by S.F. Giangst on Jan 14, 2009 6:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
How does Affeldt compare to other relievers around the league?
Giant Dirtbags: Brian Anderson, Todd Jennings, Steve Hammond, John Bowker
Jeremy Affeldt Ready To Make His Father Proud
by Giant among Angels on Jan 12, 2009 7:08 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I think
you’re undervaluing the bullpen a little bit. While it’s true that a good bullpen will not add many wins, a poor bullpen can potentially give away a lot of runs. Paying for a good bullpen is putting money into a safeguard against failure, not a run producing element.
Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Jan 13, 2009 3:46 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Hmm...
That’s one thing to look at. Xanthan, could you look at every team’s 2008 performance in this sense? See how they compare to eachother, get an average MLB pie chart going, all that stuff. I’d be interested in it greatly. I’m not sure it would serve much purpose, but it would give a base to look at this by.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
by WalrusMan on Jan 13, 2009 6:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I do think that this is important
Because while a good bullpen will only help you win a few games, a bad bullpen can potentially give away a ton of games.
But perhaps this effect is exaggerated.
by FairweatherFan on Jan 13, 2009 6:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You're overestimating bullpens.
Yes, some years, some bullpens just seems to blow everything. But they’re playing below their talent level, which is magnified by the importance of late-innings. And it’s not just bad bulllpens that can have crappy years.
What you really care about is the true talent level of a bullpen. And going into a season, the best bullpen might be 10 wins better than the worst bullpen. That’s much less of a range than for rotations (15-20 wins) and position players (25-30 wins).
Also, by WPA/LI, the Giants had the worst bullpen last year, which is similar to this year’s, which means it probably won’t be great. That’s what the pie chart shows.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Jan 17, 2009 8:48 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not that similar
Howry, Affeldt, and more innings to Romo should help a lot, and Wilson should improve (in the ERA department, not in saves).
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Jan 17, 2009 10:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Removing the Brad Hennessey experience alone should vault us into the middle. I mean that.
We don't really have that much pitching depth. We don't really have that much pitching depth. FOR GOD SAKE, VERUCA, DON'T GO FAKE TRADING JONATHAN SANCHEZ. We don't really have that much pitching depth
by oldjacket on Jan 17, 2009 11:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This is great, and all...
but where’s my Wins Above Pedro Feliz graphs?
Leading the Pro-Aaron Rowand contingent on the McC!
You can ridicule me in 2009 if you like...
by ThrillisGone22 on Jan 14, 2009 12:36 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I disagree with one point
I think that having a good bullpen is incredibly important, just look at the new york mets. To have a bullpen full of competent pitchers who won’t fuck it all up cannot be overrated.
Why does Sabean always look constipated?
by TexasRanger on Jan 15, 2009 11:44 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Rowand and Renteria
No way these two end up being our most valuable position players. But given that they have recently struggled on offense and defense, I think this is pretty unlikely. Sandoval, Winn, or FLew will do it, I think. Maybe Nate, on the off chance he gets enough playing time. Maybe even Bengie Mo.
Rowand and Renteria will both struggle defensively, and neither will make up for it with their bat.
by Gregjitsu on Jan 20, 2009 6:32 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I think Winn could do it, but other than that, I don’t see much wrong with saying that Renteria or Rowand could be our best positional players.
by xanthan on Jan 21, 2009 5:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, they do play SS and CF, so they are working up from a pretty low replacement level and Rowand will probably bounce back defensively. It’s a pretty believable assertion.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jan 21, 2009 2:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think either bounces back defensively.
Renteria’s range is terrible, and he’s on the wrong side of 30. I don’t think his bat will rebound enough to make up for his poor defense, which I think will continue to decline. Possibly Rowand’s defense will rebound, but I’m not optimistic. That’s just me, though.
by Gregjitsu on Jan 23, 2009 8:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
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