Over at the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog, the first predicted standings of the year are up. They're early -- RLYW acknowledges as much -- but they're still fun. They used projections from The Hardball Times to run 100 simulations. We'll just skip to the interesting parts:
| Average wins | Average losses | Runs scored | Runs allowed | % of div. titles in 100 simulations | % of wild-card berths in 100 simulations | |
| Rockies | 88.1 | 73.9 | 837 | 757 | 57.5 | 4.0 |
| Giants | 83.5 | 78.5 | 702 | 673 | 21.0 | 8.5 |
| Diamondbacks | 81.0 | 81.0 | 758 | 758 | 14.0 | 0.5 |
| Dodgers | 78.7 | 83.3 | 743 | 780 | 7.0 | 0.7 |
| Padres | 66.7 | 95.3 | 712 | 850 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
Notes:
- This assumes that the Dodgers don't make any other moves, which won't be the case. They'll get another starter or two, and they will probably add Manny Ramirez.
- The Giants in these simulations allow fewer runs than any team in baseball. If there are Funjuns in these simulations, I would like to inquire about living in the simulations, Tron-style.
- I'd love to see the projections that allowed the Padres to tie for a division title. Jake Peavy with a 0.95 ERA? Adrian Gonzalez with 65 homers? It must have been something.
It's a weekend thread for the freaks who look at this site even when they aren't forced to be at work!
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