Early Projections

Statistics are flawless, I now wholeheartedly accept them as the absolute truth! I will now rest in my belief the Giants will win the nl west.

I will be pleased if we break 80 wins.

I would be very surprised if the Rockies and Giants have a better record than the Angels.

Clearly, these numbers do not reflect the Dodgers’ signing of Shawn Estes.

I recognize that there is a Coors effect, but I fail to see how a Rockies team without Holliday and with a gimpy Helton is going to score almost 100 more runs than last year.

how the rockies plan to score 90 more runs than last year – good for 3rd in the NL.

OK, now I do.

Player	Year	Age	Team	LG	G	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	R150	Pos  wOBA (from fangraphs)

Todd Helton	2009	35	COL	NL	133	485	0.285	0.405	0.441	11	1B  .378

Brad Hawpe	2009	30	COL	NL	139	467	0.276	0.378	0.484	6	OF .377

Garrett Atkins	2009	29	COL	NL	150	576	0.292	0.361	0.472	2	3B    .364

Ryan Spilborghs	2009	29	COL	NL	128	388	0.294	0.376	0.454	2	OF .367

Chris Iannetta	2009	26	COL	NL	112	365	0.263	0.374	0.449	1	C        .366

Seth Smith	2009	26	COL	NL	132	438	0.288	0.361	0.461	-1	OF       .362

Troy Tulowitzki	2009	24	COL	NL	126	491	0.285	0.358	0.450	-2	SS     .355

Eric Young	2009	24	COL	NL	126	456	0.274	0.342	0.393	-18	2B      .328

So, other than 2B, not a single Giant could crack that line up – at any position. In fact, (ignoring 2B) their worst hitter, Tulowitzky is better than anyone on the Giants at any position. OK, these are not normalized to a neutral park, are they?
I don’t know why the R150s are so low… and yet the wOBA from fan graphs are quite good. I suspect park effect shinanigans.

is how you get half percentage points in 100 simulations

Well, that projection is obviously missing the real numbers, like BA and HR, but overall I can see this NLWest result being possible. I, too, expect the Dodgers to sign Manny Ramirez; and for that reason alone they should end up with more wins than losses. But other than that, I think the Rockies (featuring hitting) are better than the Giants (featuring 3 CY winners), and Tulowitzki is a stud no matter how you slice it.

I’d lean toward this (all numbers crunched using SCARSONE, which is similar to PECOTA except SCARSONE played two fewer seasons):

1. Dodgers 85-77
2. Rockies 84-78
3. Giants 81-81
4. Diamondbacks 79-82
5. Padres 0-162*

*SCARSONE doesn’t handle negative and imaginary numbers very well

It’s a weekend thread for the freaks who look at this site even when they aren’t forced to be at work!

Guilty, although currently, I am at work. Making a powerpoint. Fun times.

How sad is it that I see “83.5 wins” and think, “holy cow, that’s a lot”?

I think the last few seasons have successfully lowered my expectations.

yeah, that’s a little too optimistic for me to get excited. The Giants are improved, but hmm

My prediction: The NL West will be a very tight race this year: SF, LA, COL & AZ all look like 75-85 win teams. The Giants are on the upswing, but the line up is still scary bad. (btw, Fred Lewis would make a much better clean up hitter than Bengie).

Hate to say it, really hate to say it, but I think the division comes down to where Manny signs. And I think he signs with the Doyers. Crap.

CUCK THE FARDS, PUCK THE FANTHERS.

God that game was full of fail. Fucking Delhomme.

The Giants in these simulations allow fewer runs than any team in baseball.

Do you believe in magic, in a young Grant’s heart?

I get that merely staying stable while the Dodgers and D-Backs lose ground should be enough for the Rockies to win more games. But they haven’t stayed stable – they’ve lost their best (by far) player and replaced him with an extremely iffy young OF and a crappy SP. I don’t see how a return to form on Tulowitzki’s part is enough to net them more than an extra win or two.

The Giants’ win total, OTOH, was estimated perfectly and will certainly be enough to guarantee playoff contention regardless of further acquisitions by our division rivals. So there.

I can’t see the Rockies improving that much. They still need pitching badly. The Dodgers and the Diamondbacks are a little worse than last year. IF, and that is a big if, the Giants come up with some type of offense then put them in the mix too. We just won’t mention the Padres and their playing for the #1 pick in the 2009 draft. I think that 79 wins may be optimistic for the Giants considering our offensive capabilities or lack there of. When Benji is our power hitter then we are in trouble.

I think it will finally be the year we return to the postseason.

My reasoning? I drink a lot.

I think the west will come down to the Rockies & Giants also!