Early Projections

Over at the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog, the first predicted standings of the year are up. They're early -- RLYW acknowledges as much -- but they're still fun. They used projections from The Hardball Times to run 100 simulations. We'll just skip to the interesting parts:

Average wins Average losses Runs scored Runs allowed % of div. titles in 100 simulations % of wild-card berths in 100 simulations
Rockies 88.1 73.9 837 757 57.5 4.0
Giants 83.5 78.5 702 673 21.0 8.5
Diamondbacks 81.0 81.0 758 758 14.0 0.5
Dodgers 78.7 83.3 743 780 7.0 0.7
Padres 66.7 95.3 712 850 0.5 0.0

Notes:

  • This assumes that the Dodgers don't make any other moves, which won't be the case. They'll get another starter or two, and they will probably add Manny Ramirez.
  • The Giants in these simulations allow fewer runs than any team in baseball. If there are Funjuns in these simulations, I would like to inquire about living in the simulations, Tron-style.
  • I'd love to see the projections that allowed the Padres to tie for a division title. Jake Peavy with a 0.95 ERA? Adrian Gonzalez with 65 homers? It must have been something.

It's a weekend thread for the freaks who look at this site even when they aren't forced to be at work!

 

 

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