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Around SBN: Why Hockey Fans Should Root For Devils Vs. Kings

The name of a girl or capital city, but the fastball of a legend...

Baseball America recently gave their Minor League Player of the Year award to Matt Wieters, which wasn’t exactly a surprise. Catchers who hit .355/.454/.600 in their first full professional season are pretty unique. That’s why it’s weird that another minor league catcher should do even better next season. What are the odds?

Wieters definitely deserved the award this season, but it made me think, hey, it’s been at least two days since we’ve had a Madison Bumgarner discussion. Bumgarner surely made the final cut for the award, as he’s one of the selections in this poll, which you should certainly not try to flood with pro-Bumgarner votes. On prospect-centric sites such as Minor League Ball, there’s a civil war between the Bumgarner fanatics and the folks who merely acknowledge that Bumgarner is a very good prospect. A sample:

Fanatic: Look at them stats!

Mere appreciator: But he only has a fastball! He’ll be exposed at the higher levels!

Fanatic: But those stats!! Look!! I’m now using two exclamation points!!

Mere appreciator: I can do that too!!! Now I’m using three!!! His breaking ball is coming along, but he needs to have two more plus pitches if he wants to dominate at the major league level. MAN CAN NOT PITCH ON FASTBALL ALONE. NOW I AM USING ALL CAPS IN ADDITION TO EXTRA EXCLAMATION POINTS!!!!!

Fanatic: !!!!!!LOOK AT THE STATS AGAIN, AS I'VE WRITTEN THEM ON MY FIST FOR YOUR CONVENIENCE!!!!!!!

Like most internet debates, it usually ends with one person changing the other person’s mind. The main point in the debate, though, is that a pitcher needs at least two great pitches to be at the top of a major league staff, or a combination of one great pitch and a couple of above-average pitches. Though the reports on Bumgarner’s secondary pitches have been encouraging, Bumgarner is still using his fastball over 75% of the time. That will work for now, but it has to change as he advances.

That doesn’t make me think less about Bumgarner’s prospect status, though. It makes me rank him higher. I understand that a pitcher needs secondary pitches at the higher levels, but doesn’t this mean that Bumgarner’s fastball is already a plus-plus-plus-fastball from the nth dimension? Consider:

  • He allowed only three homers all year
  • He walked 1.33 batters for every nine innings he pitched
  • He struck out 10.42 batters for every nine innings he pitched, which, for perspective, is roughly what Tim Lincecum has done in the majors this season.

Sure, he did all of that against a mixture of teenagers and hitters in their early 20s, but every hitter that faced Bumgarner this season had to figure they were going to get a fastball at some point in the at-bat, and that fastball was likely to be somewhere in the strike zone. No one could touch it. The fastball had such a perfect combination of location, velocity, deception, and movement that it baffled everyone.

Here’s something you’ll never hear about a prospect: "Good bat, but he can’t catch up to fastballs." Those two things are mutually exclusive. If a prospect has a "slider-speed" bat, he isn’t a prospect. There are a ton of guys in the SAL who can hit a fastball, especially when they have an idea that’s what they should expect. So if Bumgarner racked up his silly, silly totals using mostly a fastball, how freaking good is that fastball?

I’ll go out on a limb: It’s a good one. If you took the top 20 pitchers in baseball right now, put them in the SAL, and forced them to throw fastballs 75% of the time, it would be hard to improve on Bumgarner’s numbers. So here’s my Grand Theory of Bumgarner Unification:

If given a choice between a teenage pitching prospect with two or three great pitches, and a teenage pitching prospect with one absolutely transcendent pitch and developing secondary pitches, always choose the latter.

Agree or disagree?

edit: Well, I managed to jinx Bumgarner. Because I wrote a fawning post about him, he gave up two walks in six innings in the SAL playoffs. That's right: two. He didn't give up an earned run, and he struck out six, but now I'm worried about the sudden drop in Bumgarner's peformance.

Poll
Well?
Agree
212 votes
Disagree
27 votes
This is the silly answer in the poll that people always pick because they are indifferent to the question
93 votes

332 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 72 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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I think the K’s are also a byproduct of his delivery, which is whippy (is that a word?) and could be hard to pick up on. Still, hitters saw the same delivery all year and didn’t adjust well.

I like teh Bums.

/throws self down stairs

Michael Ambort: Dude hits TATERS.
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Sep 9, 2008 12:34 PM PDT reply actions  

What's the matter with Madison?

He’s a Bum!

All this talk about hitting fastballs makes me think of Pedro Serrano, and in turn, how many people say “well hey X player is a great fastball hitter.” Pedro Feliz is a fastball hitter. Etc. If people really do base a big chunk of analysis on that ability then yeah, Grant is onto something here.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Sep 9, 2008 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

He's not a bum

He garns bums. Big difference.

Like Barry Zito, I'm mildly half-OK.

by EliminateMe on Sep 9, 2008 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

He garners bums?

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Sep 9, 2008 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

I like big bums, and I cannot lie…

Michael Ambort: Dude hits TATERS.
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Sep 9, 2008 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yes

He gathers them up and keeps them in a pit in his basement.

by Lars The Wanderer on Sep 9, 2008 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

and he puts the lotion on their skin

by tyrannoman on Sep 10, 2008 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

No!

Garnering bums would make him a Bumgarnerer. He garns bums! Get it right!

“To garn” is an obscure Scots dialect word for “to strike out”, of course.

Like Barry Zito, I'm mildly half-OK.

by EliminateMe on Sep 9, 2008 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

Tonight Lineup:

Lf winn
2b ochoa
3b aurilia
1b mcclain
C sandoval
Cf Rowand
Rf schierholtz
Ss vizquel
P Zito

"Buy High-Sell Low"--The Brian Sabean Method Of Trading

by Mordy From Monsey on Sep 9, 2008 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

That’s a bit off-topic in a post about Madison Bumgarner, but let me just say that that lineup makes me want vomit.

What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC

by jcb9 on Sep 9, 2008 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

Why would you want vomit?

your 2008 SF Giants: this isn’t totally insane, just really stupid

by Lyle on Sep 10, 2008 8:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

What is this Ochoa not batting 8th fetish? Oh Omar. are we sure we can’t have 2 eighth place hitters?

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

by daveinexile on Sep 9, 2008 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

Seeing as we're off topic anywho...

Accoding to Baggs
“Manager Bruce Bochy said Omar Vizquel’s playing time will pick up the rest of the way.”

This makes me go grrrrrrrrrrr.

by chilibean_3 on Sep 9, 2008 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

It’s probably due to Burriss’s injury, but even then I’d rather see Ochoa play.

Farewell, Ray. We'll miss your smile and your sugar. Welcome, Steve Hammond "Eggs". Throw strikes.
comics | cartoons | Nattowear

by Natto on Sep 9, 2008 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

Correct on both counts.

by chilibean_3 on Sep 9, 2008 5:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ochoa will play. Instead of Burriss.

Wish granted!

Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.

by groug on Sep 9, 2008 6:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

Crap, I should’ve have wasted a wish on that. Now I only have two left.

Farewell, Ray. We'll miss your smile and your sugar. Welcome, Steve Hammond "Eggs". Throw strikes.
comics | cartoons | Nattowear

by Natto on Sep 9, 2008 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

The lack of Denker is even more inexplicable now.

What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC

by jcb9 on Sep 9, 2008 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

+109

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

by daveinexile on Sep 10, 2008 8:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

I’d rather see Omar. Ochoa is a nice little backup SS/2B, but that’s about it. With Burriss not being able to play, let Omar play as much as he can during the last days of a HOF career.

by tyrannoman on Sep 10, 2008 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions  

Somebody please shoot Bochy

Third consecutive start for old man McClain? At the expense of either Ishikawa or Bowker getting some valuable experience against lefties? Gah.

It’s like he thinks he’s in a pennant race.

Like Barry Zito, I'm mildly half-OK.

by EliminateMe on Sep 9, 2008 6:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yesterday it was a right-handed pitcher, even.

What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC

by jcb9 on Sep 9, 2008 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

He didn’t start yesterday. It was Aurilia and Sandoval.

Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.

by groug on Sep 9, 2008 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Right, that was my point. Even against a righty, Ishikawa got benched.

What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC

by jcb9 on Sep 9, 2008 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

Oh wait, you’re referring to the 3 straight McClain starts comment before my response. Duh.

What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC

by jcb9 on Sep 9, 2008 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

In case you were wondering: Burriss’s freak oblique tweak is kind of a downer, the pitch count horse is little more than mushy goo at this point, and I’ve run out of adjectives for Lincecum.

by Grant Brisbee on Sep 9, 2008 12:36 PM PDT reply actions  

Well played, sir
Like most internet debates, it usually ends with one person changing the other person’s mind.

Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.

by groug on Sep 9, 2008 12:49 PM PDT reply actions  

Didn't LOL

I too loved this line. But I couldn’t LOL because my nephew is in my school room getting his homework done and I don’t want to disturb him.

by Shoeless on Sep 9, 2008 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

I was going to quote that..

If someone else didn’t. Great line.

proud father of the newly acquired Brandon Crawford..

by Azmanz on Sep 10, 2008 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

hat doesn’t make me think less about Bumgarner’s prospect status, though. It makes me rank him higher. I understand that a pitcher needs secondary pitches at the higher levels, but doesn’t this mean that Bumgarner’s fastball is already a plus-plus-plus-fastball from the nth dimension? Consider:

    * He walked 1.33 batters for every nine innings he pitched

I don’t know, fastballs are a lot easier to control than off speed pitches and especially breaking balls. I’m sure that he would have walked a lot more batters if he had used more breaking pitches and/or any off speed pitches.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Sep 9, 2008 12:56 PM PDT reply actions  

Hat doesn't

but head does

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Sep 9, 2008 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

To this debate I submit:

Mariano Rivera.

I have no idea if Bum’s fastball is a cutter but that’s proof positive that one transcendent pitch can work just fine.

by fwoty oz on Sep 9, 2008 1:03 PM PDT reply actions  

For a closer, sure

For a starter, I have my doubts.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Sep 9, 2008 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

For a starter, no way, but if his secondary pitches never develop he can likely still have a fine MLB career as an elite closer.

by fwoty oz on Sep 9, 2008 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think I can live with that.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Sep 9, 2008 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

I could definitely live with him as our closer.

However, he really does need to develop those secondary pitches to be an effective starter in the bigs. Only two types of pitchers – sinkerballers and knuckleballers – can get away with having just one effective pitch. And who was the last transcendent knuckleballer? Niekro? Even Wang and Webb throw lots of off-speed stuff as sinkerballers. Of course, there are guys like Beckett who possess a great fastball and are able to survive and dominate by pitching backwards and finishing guys off with the heat. (Is this how Tim’s been pitching this year? I haven’t actually seen him on TV all year. Many tears have been shed over this.) This formula is probably MadBum’s best bet to succeed as a top of the rotation starter.

by cornball on Sep 9, 2008 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

I said that Lincecum couldn’t live off two pitches as a starter and now look at what he’s doing as he’s learning and using the offspeed stuff, two years after I said that. And I wasn’t the only one saying that.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Sep 9, 2008 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

His development of that changeup, basically on-the-fly, is one of the more amazing things I’ve seen a Giant pitcher ever do.

Michael Ambort: Dude hits TATERS.
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Sep 9, 2008 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

Absolutely. That pitch was never mentioned when he started out in the organization. Righetti gets a lot of credit for learnin’ the youngins on the changeup but how quickly and effectively Tim’s change is coming along is simply astounding.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Sep 9, 2008 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

I still remember reports on him out of college that basically had him as just a curve+fastball guy with a changeup that was his worst pitch. I think it’s funny that he throws his change more than his curveball now.

Michael Ambort: Dude hits TATERS.
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Sep 9, 2008 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

Righetti seems to be a changeup master

I have to give that to him.

There are a lot of Giants pitchers that have developed great changeups over the years- Lincecum is the latest/greatest.

¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!

by hairball on Sep 9, 2008 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

Did Rags really teach Lincecum anything, though? I thought he picked the pitch up on his own after last year in the majors, deciding that he needed another pitch to throw at hitters.

Michael Ambort: Dude hits TATERS.
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Sep 9, 2008 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

through what process- osmosis?

Someone had to teach him something. I don’t know how many of these are attributable to Rags, but off the top of my head, Schmidt, Lowry (the good one), Cain all developed good or great changeups during his tenure. There’s probably a lot of others I’m missing. I don’t know- I’m not as hip to the stat stuff as you, and I might be talking out my backside, but changeups seem to be a calling card of sorts for Rags.

¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!

by hairball on Sep 9, 2008 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

Lowry arrived with his good change

It is the pitch that got him to the big club.

by Lars The Wanderer on Sep 9, 2008 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think Rags has to get a lot of credit for Jason Schmidt’s change up as well. He didn’t have one when he came to the Giants’, and during his terrific run his change up was his best pitch.

by tyrannoman on Sep 10, 2008 9:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

Was Schmidt’s changeup established by ‘03? It’s something I’ve been struggling to recall. By ’04 it was firmly established as his strikeout pitch, but his ’03 was even better from start to finish, though his K/9 was slightly lower.

I’ve only been able to see highlight clips, but Lincecum now basically looks like Schmidt in the first half of ’04 — fastball/changeup as the bread-and-butter — except with a better (and third-option) breaking pitch.

by non sequitur on Sep 10, 2008 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think ‘03 was the year Schmidt’s change up became his best pitch. When he came over from Pittsburg, he had a good to very good curveball (which the Pirates had him throw all the time), but he only used it as a show me pitch with the Giants.

by tyrannoman on Sep 10, 2008 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

Never said he needed more than one off-speed pitch. That was Randy Johnson’s MO as well, fastball-slider. If one pitch is ridiculous and the other is above average, you can succeed as a starter.

by cornball on Sep 9, 2008 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah. I was agreeing with you on your point about a starter needing secondary pitches to succeed. Lincecum’s two pitches starting out were just the fastball and the curve. When he added legit offspeed stuff he became ridiculous.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Sep 9, 2008 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

I agree with your agreement, which was the offshoot of my agreement with your initial statement. And I apologize for being dense. It’s that Bochy-esque skull of mine.

by cornball on Sep 9, 2008 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah well I agree with your agreement and I agree that Bochy is dol dae ga ri, which IIRC means “stupid” (literally “stone head”) in Korean.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Sep 9, 2008 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

Billy Wagner is a pretty nice worst-case-scenario.

by rotorueter on Sep 9, 2008 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

That’s one transcendent pitch working just fine for a closer.

by chilibean_3 on Sep 9, 2008 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

also, if you want to spice up your games of catch

Learn to throw a cutter. It’s super easy to throw (and easy on the arm) and makes your buddies catch lots of balls in their palm :P

by fwoty oz on Sep 9, 2008 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

where would you direct one to learn to throw a cutter?

Zooperstars, they quack me up!

by Goofus on Sep 9, 2008 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

http://www.stevenellis.com/steven_ellis_the_complete/2007/05/how_to_throw_a__7.html looks pretty accurate.

It’s really all about the grip. The release point and arm angle are the same as throwing a 4 seamer.

by fwoty oz on Sep 9, 2008 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

there’s probably also youtube videos on how to throw any pitch.

by fwoty oz on Sep 9, 2008 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Anyone can hit a fastball

Especially if they know it is coming.

As Grant says, the SAL (and all other levels of MiL) is full of hitters who can clobber the fastball.

The fact that they couldn’t clobber Bumgarners (or even really make meaningful contact), IMO, says a lot about the quality of that pitch.

Mix in a few change ups or slider/slurve, and that fastball is going to become even more devastating, even if the secondary pitches are only meh.

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Sep 9, 2008 1:10 PM PDT reply actions  

I have to think that Bumgarner’s fastball must be that good. There’s a difference between dominating the SAL and doing it to the degree that MadBum did. And I have to say that I’m mostly encouraged by the reports on his secondary stuff anyway.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Sep 9, 2008 1:57 PM PDT reply actions  

fuck the Bum haters.

"ever so cynical yet whimsical giants related signature"

by The Gene Hackman on Sep 9, 2008 3:33 PM PDT reply actions  

Caveat

75% fastballs sounds like a lot, but I am not at all convinced that it really is a lot. According to the pitch statistics at fangraphs.com, most big-league starters throw north of 60% fastballs, with some guys like Beckett, Wang, Webb and Cain closer to (or even above) 70. Given that SAL pitchers probably have less developed offspeed pitches and dodgier control than big leaguers, it seems quite plausible that they would throw more fastballs, so 75 might very well be typical, which would (slightly) damage Grant’s hypothesis that Bumgarner’s fastball is “transcendent” as opposed to merely “outstanding”.

Anyone who watches a lot of low-A ball have any actual information as to what constitutes “normal” pitch selection for starters at that level?

by taliesin on Sep 9, 2008 4:25 PM PDT reply actions  

I’m not sure you can include Wang and Webb since they are unique ground ball pitchers. Bumgarner doesn’t fit that profile.

Michael Ambort: Dude hits TATERS.
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Sep 9, 2008 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think it is more important

That he is acheiving such dominance with his fastball as opposed to if he throws it an abnormal amount of the time.

He throws it often, and people can’t hit it. It is not as if he is fooling a bunch of MiL players w/ a big curve (kershaw) or other tricky pitch that they have never seen before.

He is just blowing them away. I think that speaks volumes for the quality of that FB. All he needs is a somewhat okay secondary and he has a solid chance of performing well in the Majors.

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Sep 9, 2008 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

This is a fair point

I took Grant’s point to be, in essence, “He throws the fastball all the time so guys know it’s coming, and they still can’t hit it.” I was merely making the point that MadBum probably doesn’t really throw his fastball much more than any other starter in the Sally League.

That said, if Bumgarner had a bunch of good-not-great secondary pitches, threw them half the time, and were putting up these kind of numbers, someone might say, “Well, hitters at that level aren’t good at hitting offspeed stuff, so of course he’s dominating.” But in fact he’s pitching more or less the same as all the other starters, just better. Much, much better. There can be no doubt that he has an outstanding fastball. I’m just not sure if it rises to the level of transcendent, “OMG the ball like passes through a wormhole between his hand and the catcher’s mitt!” Maybe it does though. I suppose I’ll get to see for myself next year in San Jose.

by taliesin on Sep 10, 2008 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

There can be no doubt that he has an outstanding fastball. I’m just not sure if it rises to the level of transcendent,

I guess the argument would be that, since he is able to achieve such success with nearly the fastball alone – it must be somewhat transcendent.

It is one thing to dominate the minors by preying on the weakness of MiL hitters (off speed, breaking pitches, etc). It is tricky to project how well someone doing this will do in the Majors because those sorts of pitches don’t fool big league hitters as much. (That is typically why they made it to the big leagues).

It is entirely another to dominate the minors while throwing them the exact type of pitch they all are very good at hitting (or else they wouldn’t have made it to the minors). MiL players can clobber fastballs pretty much as well as ML players can. If you can blow your FB past an entire season of SAL hitters, there is a good chance you will have at least some success in the majors.

San Jose will tell us a lot.

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Sep 10, 2008 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think this thread illustrates Grant’s preference to be on top.

by Lars The Wanderer on Sep 10, 2008 7:36 AM PDT reply actions  

hhuummm …thats what she said?

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

by daveinexile on Sep 10, 2008 8:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

75%

I heard an interview on XM a few weeks past with Bill James, and in talking about Clay Bucholz’ struggles this year, Bill said “Clay is having an argument with the league about how often he should throw his fastball, and the league is winning.” But what was interesting to me, was that Buchholz’ problem was throwing his FB too little, not too much. According to James, most starting pitchers with plus fastballs, throw that pitch about 70% of the time, and work off it with their offspeed and breaking stuff only about 30% of the time, whereas Clay was trying to use his FB only about 45% of the time and his breaking stuff 55% of the time (as they used to say, “he’s fallen in love with his curveball”).

It was interesting to me that James studies indicated pitchers with quality FBs should be using it at that an extreme a bulk of the time even at the major league level (though of course they can only do so effectively if can command the pitch around the strike zone).

Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!

by Roger on Sep 10, 2008 8:59 AM PDT reply actions  

That’s is quite interesting, although not actually as suprising intially thought. The Fasball is a very important pitch, not necessarily to be a great pitch & blow away people (as Bumgarner has done) but to set up the other pitches.

Without a decent diet of fastballs, off-speed pitches just aren’t as effective. Two examples of pitchers at opposite ends of the spectrum are Zito & Lincecum. The struggles Zito has had with his Fastball, make his Curve much less effective, and conversely, would Lincecum changeup, as good as it is, be as effective without the quality of his fastball.

Another issue is that i’m sure the majority of pitchers have better command of their fastball than their offspeed stuff. Throwing more offspeed pitches means you’re going to throw more balls on average which leads to 2 problems. One is, you’ll simply walk more batters causing yourself to give up more & the other is you’ll get behind in counts leading to the obvious problems associated with that.

Obviously no pitcher is going to be effective by throwing all fastballs & there’s obviously a level which is most effective. It isn’t too suprising though that the ratio is quite high.

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by GiantFan on Sep 10, 2008 9:45 AM PDT reply actions  

I think, too, what James was implying (and this is why he used that turn of phrase — “Clay is having an argument with the league’s hitters”) is that ultimately major league hitters will punish you if you throw too much offspeed stuff. As a whole, they’re just too and adjust too quickly to try to “fool” them too often with slow stuff. This kind of goes hand in hand with that study earlier in the year that looked at velocity and ERA and found a direct inverse correlation.

Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!

by Roger on Sep 10, 2008 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

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