Tim Lincecum leads ESPN's Cy Young Predictor

I'm not sure how their formula works, but following last night's start, Lincecum leads Webb 162.8-154.0. Sabathia doesn't even show up, though.

over 3 years ago jcb9 25 comments 0 recs |

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The points system

is explained at the bottom.

“In the The Neyer/James Guide To Pitchers — co-authored by Bill James and ESPN.com’s Rob Neyer, and published this summer by Fireside — James presents a method, based on past results, to predict Cy Young balloting. This page provides an in-season snapshot of the Cy Young "race,” as figured by the following formula: Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB (see below) Victory Bonus (VB): A 12-point bonus awarded for leading your team to the division champsionship (pro-rated based on the current standings)."

It definitely overvalues Saves (which are inherently overvalued). I dunno, it seems fairly logical if one takes into account W/L and that silly victory bonus thing.

BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Sep 9, 2008 9:06 AM PDT reply actions

okay

as a counterpoint to my acceptance of the formula, it definitely undercuts Brandon Webb’s value because it focuses solely on Ks as a total instead of as a K/BB formula.

BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Sep 9, 2008 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions

Cy Young voters also focus solely on K’s as a total instead of as a K/BB formula.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Sep 9, 2008 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Sep 9, 2008 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions

You’re missing the point of the formula.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Sep 10, 2008 2:54 AM PDT up reply actions

I think Baron gets it, actually. I just think that she finds the whole thing stupid, from the circumstances that created the conditions for thr formula to the formula itself.

And I’d be inclined to agree.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Sep 10, 2008 3:06 AM PDT up reply actions

Yes.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Sep 10, 2008 7:28 AM PDT up reply actions

Oh. My apologies. I thought you were saying that the formula is stupid because it ignores BB’s and adds points for team performance.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Sep 10, 2008 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions

I hate math and everything, but those numbers multiplying the factors of strikeouts and saves and that seem sort of arbitrary.

Although could the VB number work against a guy, if things were truly fair? Brandon Webb tanking lately isn’t helping the D’Backs in the race at all. That should count as -12 points if you ask me.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Sep 9, 2008 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions

all of this is arbitrary it seems to me. However, arbitrary developed by Bill James and Rob Neyer have a different weight vs. arbitrary developed by say, Steve Phillips.

The VB number part is ridiculous. Technically, Rich Thompson and his 22.50 ERA get at least 12 points in the Cy Young race.

DUMB

BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Sep 9, 2008 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions

James presents a method, based on past results, to predict Cy Young balloting.

It’s not about who should win, it’s about who is likely to win.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Sep 9, 2008 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions

didn't see that

I can picture a scene where James is looking at the final qualifications and finally realizes how retarded it is and then he puts on this face:

: (

BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Sep 9, 2008 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions

Well yeah. At least it’s some people with brains behind the random numbers instead of a dingdong who actually wondered aloud about a guy getting a win AND a save in a game on national television.

I am angry at how dumb this shit is.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Sep 9, 2008 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions

slow your roll and note what cookyman says here.

Adoptive Parent of Francisco Peguero. He can throw, he can run, he can hit(fastballs), and he's Dominican. What else do you need to know?

by haverecords on Sep 9, 2008 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions

My guess is that it’s a formula that was reverse engineered from the stats – that is, from the 1-2-3 finishes over the last 5 years (or however long), someone came up with a formula to determine how the vote worked.

Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.

by groug on Sep 9, 2008 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions

over value of closers

yes it does seem to overvalue saves, but also note that there is no penalty for blown saves where as starters are penalized for losses

by melottfan on Sep 9, 2008 9:12 AM PDT reply actions

Of course, MLB.com

still wants us to believe that Webb should be the favorite.

I must confess to being enough of a nerd that I fired off an indignant email to the author of the article.

What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC

by jcb9 on Sep 9, 2008 10:23 AM PDT reply actions

Total bullshit

But that article was likely filed and edited yesterday afternoon, before Timmy put the nail in Webb’s coffin last night.

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Sep 9, 2008 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions

To be fair to the guy, he wrote back promptly and had the following to say:

“Webb is the favorite based on feedback from the voters I talked to, and there’s only 32 of them, two in each city. I don’t always agree with their picks, and in fact if I were voting, Lincecum gets my vote hands down, he’s got a shot at a Triple Crown for crying out loud and would have 20 wins at least with a little more support.
The problem as I see it is too many BBWAA voters don’t go to enough games, or if they’re in the east they don’t see west coast teams enough. Webb is the PERCEIVED frontrunner based on conversations with BBWAA members, that doesn’t mean he’s my choice.
Anyway, thanks for reading, and good luck with the Giants and Lincecum. I believe he’s earned the CYA.
- jm”

What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC

by jcb9 on Sep 9, 2008 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions