Bringing up Bum

by UnleashTheGore on Sep 4, 2008 12:59 PM PDT

(I originally wrote this to be a question on Grant's main post but deemed it able to be its own fanpost question).

In regards to the possibility of MadBum going on the fast track to the majors:

While, of course, all of us would like to think the Giants would retain all of their stud pitchers when they hit FA, let's assume for a second that the organization wouldn't be inclined to do so. If MadBum gets put on the fast track, should any consideration be given to the idea that Timmy, Cain, and MadBum's FA could potentially occurr within a couple years of each other? Would it be better to space their major league appearances out a bit so, if they let Cain go for example, they would have a nice segway between Lincecum and Cain to MadBum and TimA instead of worrying about retaining them all at the same time?

That being said, if the team turns out to be able to contend and the hitting comes around in the next couple years, it may be wise to bring him up sooner rather than later to establish an even more dominant rotation. Thoughts?

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I think we need to see how he performs in San Jose first & then offer our opinions

by SF Fan on Sep 4, 2008 1:04 PM PDT 0 recs

I think

That we are more likely to lose Lincecum that Cain, first off.

Secondly, I think it is in our best interest to have as many good pitchers at as high a level as possible. Bring him up as fast as his performance dictates.

Even on the most accelerated track, he won’t be FA eligible for many many years. We will already know what the deal is with Lincecum/Cain before we have to make any decisions W/ Alderson/Bumgarner.

Ideally, you would have your best talent all grouped at the same time. We don’t, so fast tracking Madbum (if he can handle it) is probably a good idea in that it maximizes the possibility of a Cain/Lincecum/Sanchez/Bumgarner rotation.

If he obliterates the San Jose Season next year, I wouldn’t be opposed to seeing him in September.

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Sep 4, 2008 1:21 PM PDT 0 recs

He will most likely go to AA next year, wherever the Giant’s AA team will be.

by allfrank on Sep 4, 2008 1:33 PM PDT 0 recs

not too worried about it

I don’t think the Giants are in any rush to bring Mad Bum up. He’ll most likely spend all of next year in A+ ball (San Jose) and 2010 in AA (Connecticut or wherever), with a chance at a callup if he continues his current path. Frankly, I see TimA as much closer to the majors. He could be here as early as mid to late 2009. In either case, their clocks don’t start running until they get here, which will be at least 3-4 seasons after Cain and Lincecum and thus they wouldn’t likely be free agents at the same time.

Assuming Mad Bum gets here in 2011, the Giants would have him at the league minimum from 2011-2014 before they get arbitration, which would be approximately 2015-2017, plus the 3 add’l arb years, so he’d be “controlled” for approximately 7 years. If he’s any good, the team will try to buy out his arb years. Same with TimA.

Cain is a Free agent after the 2011 season (or 2010 if the Giants don’t exercise their 2011 $6.25M option) and Timmy is arb eligible from 2011-2013 and then free agency kicks in after the 2013 season (assuming he goes thru arb each year). My guess is that the Giants will try to sign Timmy to a long term deal, but he’ll hold out until at least his first arb year, unless the Giants offer a ton to keep him.

I’m more worried about Cain leaving after 2011 because he will be expensive and the Giants will have a lot of money still tied up in the albatross, who is signed for a shitload thru 2013 (and a $7M buyout in 2014, which the Giants WILL do unless his option vests, in which case they owe him another $18M for 2014. Yes, this is another reason why that deal was so awful.)

In any event, assuming the team throws more money at Lincecum than Cain, and TimA and Mad Bum are here, Cain would be more expendable and the Giants would have less reason/money to keep him.

Bonds stands alone.

Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal

by nostocksjustbonds on Sep 4, 2008 1:38 PM PDT 0 recs

If he continues his current path … that’s hard to imagine. He’s pretty clearly ahead of where Clayton Kershaw was this time last year. Bumgarner may not have Kershaw’s raw stuff, but superb command of a great fastball will get you a long way, even if the breaking pitches are subpar.

I think you’re right that the Giants want to slowtrack him, but he may force them to change their minds.

by Evan on Sep 4, 2008 2:03 PM PDT up 0 recs

you’re probably right about him forcing the issue, but I don’t see him getting to the majors without spending a good deal of time in AA. If he dominates A+ the first half of next year, he could get promoted to AA and then be in line for a Sept. callup, though that’s still probably pushing it.

Bonds stands alone.

Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal

by nostocksjustbonds on Sep 4, 2008 10:47 PM PDT up 0 recs

True

Although listening to the latest Sabean show, the front office seems to have taken desperation promotions as the new team motto. When Ralph asked Sabes about AnVil’s future, Brian responded with a laugh and said “I just don’t know any more about anybody” and then went on to say after the way this year went that practically anybody in the system could be up here in one or two years if they can prove they deserve it. Now he specifically mentioned the advanced college guys (Posey, Gillaspie, Kieschnick) but as he was responding to a question about a 17 year old in Low A ball, and contextualized his response by noting all the guys who were on Augusta’s team last year who are now or have been in the big leagues this year, it really seemed to be an announcement of an “anything goes/rotating door” policy.

It’s exciting from a fan’s perspective, but I’m a bit worried at the desperation tinge of it. In my experience, “grab at any straw that moves” doesn’t really make for the most succesful plan.

Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!

by Roger on Sep 5, 2008 7:42 AM PDT up 0 recs

I hear you. But I think you’re mistaking an honest self caution on Sabean’s part for some sort of solid policy. The interview, including the comments you have relayed here, come off as expressing a sentiment about this very much like your own. Sabean gave the ‘I just don’t know anymore line’ because he himself didn’t plan for those who have been called up so fast to be here, so he is hesitant to give the normal projections with AnVil and others.

It is interesting to consider what he said from a marketing perspective, but nothing in the comments (context included) makes it read from that perspective, as opposed to a developed perspective.

I don’t think most of us saw Sandoval coming up this year, but his play called for it and he does seem ready, so far. No one expected Burriss to have stuck as he has(partly because of how bad the sf ss situation is, but also because of his play). Though I do not think this will happen, but what if Anvil rakes the ball in SJO such that he seams ready for AA. If he does it there too, then what? I still say (of course) that he finishes there and gets a sept. call up at most, but if this happens he would almost certainly—and rightly— be given strong consideration for the starting position from the start of 2010. The earliest most of us consider a realistic (though very early still) time for him to arrive would be as a late callup in 2010. But the crazy scenario I just ran through is just as crazy as Burriss’s story, and is in the same ballpark (though considerably more crazy) that the Sandoval situation. And consider too, the hypothetical AnVil situation I just gave would approximate Cabrera’s jump in level (though not in age, as Anvil is younger).

Adoptive Parent of Francisco Peguero. He can throw, he can run, he can hit(fastballs), and he's Dominican. What else do you need to know?

by haverecords on Sep 6, 2008 1:09 AM PDT up 0 recs

edit: read from that(marketing) perspective, as opposed to a development perspective

Adoptive Parent of Francisco Peguero. He can throw, he can run, he can hit(fastballs), and he's Dominican. What else do you need to know?

by haverecords on Sep 6, 2008 1:10 AM PDT up 0 recs

Velociraptor GM!

Hold very still, AnVil

Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus.

by oldjacket on Sep 6, 2008 9:36 AM PDT up 0 recs

http://www.xkcd.org/155/

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Sep 6, 2008 10:50 AM PDT up 0 recs

That looks similar to mine except mine has “pretty girls” as every other search.

Farewell, Ray. We'll miss your smile and your sugar. Welcome, Steve Hammond "Eggs". Throw strikes.
comics | cartoons | Nattowear

by Natto on Sep 6, 2008 1:12 PM PDT up 0 recs

Oh, I’ve definitely done the “how can i tell if my neighbor is a pretty girl” search.

Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.

by groug on Sep 6, 2008 1:20 PM PDT up 0 recs

from traderumors

# Currently the idea of the Brewers swapping Prince Fielder for Matt Cain is just fun speculation. However, it is true the Brewers will listen on Fielder (he is about to get expensive). The Giants are known to like the big first baseman. The hangup is Brian Sabean’s reported unwillingness to trade Tim Lincecum or Cain.

# The Giants also have their eye on Adrian Beltre. The Mariners want starting pitching, but one year of Beltre is not equal to four of Jonathan Sanchez.

I don’t think I’d do Cain for Fielder straight up.

Bonds stands alone.

Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal

by nostocksjustbonds on Sep 4, 2008 1:41 PM PDT 0 recs

I might have after last year, but I’m very concerned about Fielder’s drop in production this year. A sub-.500 SLG and a 120 OPS+ are not encouraging…

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Sep 4, 2008 1:49 PM PDT up 0 recs

and then there's his defensive play

Check out Dial’s latest OPD rankings

by BigO on Sep 4, 2008 1:58 PM PDT up 0 recs

Don’t forget his home-road splits … 942 career OPS at home, 764 on the road.

by Evan on Sep 4, 2008 2:07 PM PDT up 0 recs

yeah

but his middle name is Semien. (Not to mention his fairly cool first name.)

by BigO on Sep 4, 2008 2:11 PM PDT up 0 recs

Cain has a 3.38 career ERA at home, 4.16 away.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Sep 4, 2008 2:12 PM PDT up 0 recs

Yeah, but he sucks.

by Evan on Sep 4, 2008 2:20 PM PDT up 0 recs

Fielder

Also seems like the kind of personality that the Giants are getting away from.

by Change Up on Sep 4, 2008 3:55 PM PDT up 0 recs

true

not nearly gamer enough. 50 home runs? Sure. But can he lay down a sacrifice bunt?

Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...

by Smoke on the Water on Sep 4, 2008 5:01 PM PDT up 0 recs

50 HR?

Try more like 30-35 in the post steroid slugfest bandbox (real) world.

Couple that with a Career OPS+ of ~ 128 and it makes you wonder if Fielder is all that great of a player after all.

He’s a young guy who had one HUGE year, and a couple of pretty good ones.

I tend to think the real Prince is the ~ 115-120 OPS+ one, not the 156 OPS+ 2007 version.

Look @ Fielders home/away splits and it looks even worse (career 83 points lower OPS on the road)

That makes him look a lot more like Conor Jackson than Albert Pujols. Still a huge improvement to this team, but probably not worth Matt Cain.

Matt Cain WPA/LI this season: 1.4
Fielder: 1.6

Essentially a tie, and given what you have to replace Cain (Misch? Palmer?) Vs. what you have instead of Fielder (Ishikawa/Bowker/Aurilia type?) You certainly come out ahead with Cain.

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Sep 4, 2008 5:21 PM PDT up 0 recs

50 home runs last year. They were testing in 2007, correct? And he’s still only 24 years old. Bandbox or no, roids or no (and I’ve seen no evidence to suggest Fielder was on them), that’s ridiculous power for a yougster. His weight and longterm health concern me. This year being not so great as last doesn’t. The talent is clearly there— 50 HR is unreasonable for just about anybody, but he’s done it. I’d expect him to average somewhere around 40 annually going forward, and that’s clearly something the Giants need.

To be clear— I do not advocate trading Matt Cain. I would not like to see him in any uniform other than San Francisco’s. But Fielder is exactly the kind of young position player that would make you have to at least listen seriously to offers.

Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...

by Smoke on the Water on Sep 4, 2008 5:36 PM PDT up 0 recs

I freaking love Matt Cain despite the fact that he is such a sucky pitcher. And I would still probably make this trade. Thus, I’m pretty sure the Brewers never would (unless they are absolutely convinced of Matt Gamel’s studliness, I guess…)

Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...

by Smoke on the Water on Sep 4, 2008 1:59 PM PDT up 0 recs

I think

Cain is more Valuable than Fielder at this point, given their respective contract situations.

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Sep 4, 2008 3:33 PM PDT up 0 recs

Dierkes was a little sloppy here

there is no mention of Sanchez in the Stark piece, only Cain (and Lincecum in the add-on sense above)

by BigO on Sep 4, 2008 2:08 PM PDT up 0 recs

Nah, he wasn’t. His comments are always a reaction to the reflections and reports of another. Thus, he doesn’t have to replicate what the reporter he is linking to is saying. He’s drawing the right implication about what the interim mariners GM is looking for (and I don’t think he’d get).

Adoptive Parent of Francisco Peguero. He can throw, he can run, he can hit(fastballs), and he's Dominican. What else do you need to know?

by haverecords on Sep 4, 2008 2:24 PM PDT up 0 recs

point taken

I guess I’ve just started to think of the site as a clearinghouse, and expect to NOT have to look at the source. The bullet point format doesn’t exactly lend itself to a clear distinction between what the source is saying, and what he is saying. You’re right, though, he makes the right inference, and It’s not as though Stark is pointing to a specific rumour anyway.

by BigO on Sep 4, 2008 2:37 PM PDT up 0 recs

I want Prince for his vegetarianism and his unconventional good looks

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Sep 4, 2008 2:16 PM PDT up 0 recs

You sound like you’re channeling the Baron.

by rotorueter on Sep 4, 2008 2:20 PM PDT up 0 recs

Indeed you do. Where has the Baron gone, btw?

Adoptive Parent of Francisco Peguero. He can throw, he can run, he can hit(fastballs), and he's Dominican. What else do you need to know?

by haverecords on Sep 4, 2008 2:24 PM PDT up 0 recs

IIRC, she’s visiting her dad in Detroit.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Sep 4, 2008 2:26 PM PDT up 0 recs

Yeah, I got a text from her while she was at Comerica Park last night.

by rotorueter on Sep 4, 2008 2:34 PM PDT up 0 recs

I took photos with my camera phone and they suck, but I’ll post them here if people want to see them. Comerica Park is a really nice ballpark. It just made me sad and yearn for home, though.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Sep 8, 2008 11:11 AM PDT up 0 recs

Hay I said nothing about Prince’s looks. I like him because he’s a gentleman and because he hits good.

A friend hooked me up with a Prince T shirt that I had to wear Wednesday night at Comerica Park. It rained on us all night and I was cold and wet in just a tank top and pants, so I put the shirt on. I guess I looked like a confused fan with my orange Tigers cap and Brewers shirt, but so what, I was freezing.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Sep 8, 2008 11:10 AM PDT up 0 recs

So if 1 year of Beltre is not equal to 4 years of Sanchez...

Does that mean we could get Balentien or Triunfel?

by Hobbes2d on Sep 4, 2008 3:17 PM PDT 0 recs

Something like Sosa & Schierholtz for Balentien & Tuiasosopo would make sense for both sides, wouldn’t it?

by Evan on Sep 4, 2008 3:33 PM PDT up 0 recs

I can see Shierholtz

On Passrush.

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Sep 4, 2008 4:42 PM PDT up 0 recs

Makes no sense to me

Balentien hasn’t hit in the ML’s. Value is down. Tuiasosopo is not really a good prospect. Sosa and Schierholtz have better value IMO. Nate has actually hit in his short ML time. And Sosa is a much better prospect if healthy.

by Hobbes2d on Sep 4, 2008 7:04 PM PDT up 0 recs