On strikeout per nine innings alone, how historic was Tim Lincecum’s season?  According to baseball-reference.com, with a ratio of 10.5, Tim just posted the 30th highest single-season K/9 ratio for a starter in baseball history. 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/SOp9_season.shtml

What’s more amazing is the improvement he made as the season went on.  In his first 15 games of 97 1/3 IP, he had 38 BBs and 95 Ks for ratios of 3.5 and 8.75, respectively.  In his last 19 games of 129 1/3 IP, he had 46 BBs and 170Ks for ratios of 3.24 and 11.98.  That last figure, over a full season, would qualify as the 9th highest on that list.

So what helped Tim start striking out major league hitters at that higher rate?  Was it just the marginally better walk ratio?  Experience?  Location?  From a 9/18/08 ESPN article (link below), the horse’s mouth:

"Lincecum has taken a big step forward this season partially because he has increased his strikeout rate while dropping his walk rate. He's now posting a strikeout-to-walk ratio of better than three to one. What is he doing differently?
‘Just going after hitters and trying to throw strikes, as opposed to working around guys or trying to get them to chase," Lincecum said. "I'm better at getting guys out in the zone, and I'm not afraid to let my guys play behind me. I had always kind of gone for strikeouts in the past, and I still do, but it's nice to get those quick innings where you get a ground ball or a double play to get you out of an inning faster than throwing 10 more pitches trying to get more strikeouts.’"

Based on the list, what does that translate to in measurable variables?  What are the ways to achieve a historical strikeout ratio?  Based on a little research and background anecdotal baseball knowledge, I’ll say stuff, walks, and meaningful experience.

My research consisted of looking at the 54 pitchers have posted seasons above the (arbitrary) ratio of 10.  The list includes Randy Johnson (12 times), Nolan Ryan (8), Curt Schilling (5), Pedro Martinez (3), Sandy Koufax (3), Hideo Nomo (3).  Kerry Wood was the only other player with 3 seasons, and his all came in the top 17, showing how historic of a K pitcher he was in his short time as a starter.  The list includes pitchers who are in the HOF or HOF bound to one season wonders, so it’s not really predictive of anything: Roger Clemens, Dwight Gooden, Oliver Perez, Erik Bedard, Sam McDowell, Erik Bedard, Mark Prior, Scott Kazmir, David Cone, Bartolo Colon, Mike Scott, Ben Sheets, and our very own Jason Schmidt.

But, there are differences between doing it for one season and doing it for an entire career.  To do it for one year, it seems that only a great fastball and a very good secondary pitch is necessary.  I’ll detail how I found that a league leading BB/9 isn’t a prerequisite to reach that magic 10K/9.  To avoid becoming that one season wonder and to become a truly great pitcher ala Randy Johnson, though, it seems you’ve got to have a combination of all of those traits.

It also seems like if you still need a very good fastball, even if you’ve got a limitless amount of control and experience.  Greg "Baseball’s smartest pitcher" Maddux, he of low, low walks, and a ton of experience, peaked at a 7.77K/9 in 1995, when I assume he still had a decent fastball.  From 2002-2008, it seems he lost it a bit and his K rate dropped, from about 4.75 to 5.5.

I’ll go over these traits with some handpicked stats:

1. Stuff.  At first review, most of the pitchers here are renowned for an excellent fastball.  Less flashy, but just as required, is a very good second pitch, if not third or fourth.  (yes, everybody’s heard that all MLB hitters can eventually catch up to a pitcher if he only throws heat, no matter how hot – hello, Brian Wilson!) Kerry Wood and Sandy Koufax had their curves, as Timmy did in college and the minors, and Nolan Ryan had a changeup later in his career. 

2.  Walks. But, in individual seasons, it don’t seem to be as important as I thought it would be.  Before researching the list, I thought strikeout pitcher + decreasing walks = crazy high strikeouts.  My single anecdote was Randy Johnson, as in his 1993 breakout season his K/9 rate jumped to 10+ from about 8, which was also the first full season his walks were less than 100 and his K/BB over 2.  But other pitchers defied such a connection.  In some of their early 10+K/9 seasons, Nolan Ryan and Sandy Koufax were around 5+BB/9.  Bartolo Colon hit 4.76 BB/9 in his one season, and Hideo Nomo ranged from 3.99 to 4.36 in his three. 

Some of the other pitchers are a mixed bag.  For Pedro Martinez, better location seemed to help only marginally at first, but fewer walks seemed to sustain his eventual highest K ratios.  From 1996 to 1997, his first 300 K season, his K/9 jumped from 9.22 to 11.37, while his BB/9 went down marginally, from 2.91 to 2.50.  In 1998, his BB/9 stayed about the same at 2.50, but his K/9 dropped to 9.67.  The next 4 years he had his best K ratio seasons, topping out at 13.2 in 1999.  His BB/9 was below 2 for all 4 seasons, reaching 1.33 in 2000.

Nolan Ryan seemed to have no correlation between walks and K’s early in his career (other than a heck of a lot of both!).  From 1972-1977, his K/9 ranged from 8.45 to 10.57, while his BB/9 ranged from 4.47 to 6.14.  Then amazingly enough, he didn’t cross the 10K/9 mark for ten more years (although he came close twice) when he was 40 years old.  For the next five seasons, he had a K/9 range of 9.33 to 11.48, the highest of his career, and a BB/9 of 3.26 to 3.75, some of the lowest.  As I recall from his mid-90s autobiography, he discussed developing a circle change during the last part of his career.  So that, along with the sheer volume of experience he had, may have helped boost his strikeout rate.

Curt Schilling has had great control his entire career, so it’s hard to say that it helped him strike out people any more or less.  In 1993, his first full season, he had a 2.18 BB/9 and a 7.11 K/9.  In 1997, his next full season, his walks remained steady at 2.05/9 but his K’s shot up to 11.29/9.  He maintained both the low walk and the high strikeout numbers through 2002.

3.  Meaningful experience, that magic intangible.  From several articles, I’ve read how Curt Schilling kept track of all his pitches and batters, building up a useful database.  Maybe by 1997, this prevented mistakes from being repeated too often and allowed him to adapt better than the hitters he was facing. At the very least, this seems better than not learning anything at all.  Nolan Ryan's another good example here, as he became a wiser pitcher later on in his career.

This might also apply to Tim in 2008 – his walks didn’t drop dramatically, but he made a conscious decision to become a better overall pitcher, and not just a thrower.  Statistically, this might have translated into pitch usage% and pitch location, as other posters such as Xanthan have examined.

So Tim’s done it for one season.  I’m thrilled, no doubt, but of course I want him to keep doing it for the next 15-20 years.  Easier said than done, of course.  But if Timmy’s going to keep up or maintain his strikeout rate, he’s got to 1) keep his fastball.  Maybe this is no problem if he follows in his dad’s 88 MPH footsteps.  2) At least maintain, if not keep improving his BB/9 rate.  He’s already shown he can do in the MLB, on a year-to-year basis and over the course of the season.  3) Keep learning and accumulating meaningful experience.  Based on the quotes I’ve read over the course of his career, he seems at least baseball smart and capable of doing that.

Of course, as a natural pessi-optimist (prepare for the worst, hope for the best), the threat of injury is always there to stop a HOF career (for any pitcher, I’m not talking Tim-specific mechanics or anything else).  In the meantime, I’ll keep my fingers crossed with one hand and my fist pumped with the other, as Timmy strikes out the side for a WS win.

Note 1: I primarily used Baseball-reference, Baseball Cube and ESPN for these numbers, so if there are any differences between them this may have caused some discrepancies with my numbers.
Note 2: Other random Tim articles follow, focusing on past and present predictions for him.  Apologies for any reposts of links. 

Past "Na na na na na na na, I told you so" Articles

The Good:
http://prospectinsider.wordpress.com/2006/06/04/toe-to-toe-hochevar-vs-lincecum/

Lots of stuff in this June ’06 armchair scout article that came true and defines the Timmy we know today, but this one stuck out:
"Lincecum's curve ball is so good that he didn't use his change much, but if he were to add an average changeup or a split-finger, he'd be devastating in any role."

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/mechanics/discussion/controlled_fury_tim_lincecum/
"I'm almost too giddy in praise of Tim Lincecum. The power he can generate out of a 5'10", 155 lb body is just plain ridiculous. Of course, there's injury risk. He's young, he's aggressive, and his mechanics are uncommon. We know a little about his college workload. I can see why some may shy away from someone like this. Like I said in the draft review, ‘Might scare some, doesn’t scare me.’"


The Bad
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/espn_chat_with_rob_neyer_tim_lincecum_vs_yovani_gallardo/

Well, nothing really "bad" here, just that Tim forced comparisons to the best overall in the game, rather than just the best of the young guys.

The Ugly:
See earlier Fanpost of Kawakami’s Lincecum for Rios article
http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2008/9/28/623910/lincecum-for-rios-remember

Articles to check back on in October 2010

http://blogs.seattleweekly.com/buzzerbeater/2008/09/time_for_morrow_vs_lincecum.php

"So at this point, it would be tough to make a decision based on numbers. This brings us back to the durability issue. And, because of Lincecum’s size, Morrow’s probably the better pick."

ESPN Fantasy names Lincecum #1 2009 starter as of 9/18/08 (same article referenced in my writing above)
http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=60F60I080918

SI – The Verducci Effect
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/fantasy/08/29/utk.wrap/index.html

"…Pelfrey is nearing the Verducci Effect (the mark first noted by SI's Tom Verducci, showing that 30-inning increases predict problems the following year.)"

Lincecum is on the top of his list.

Other References Used (not comprehensive)
Tim Lincecum
2008 Gamelog
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=linceti01&t=p

Historical K/9 leaders
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/SOp9_season.shtml

Randy Johnson
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=2131
http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/johnsra05.shtml

Pedro Martinez
http://thebaseballcube.com/players/M/Pedro-Martinez-1.shtml

Nolan Ryan
http://thebaseballcube.com/players/R/Nolan-Ryan.shtml