Matt Cain and Felix Hernandez really, really suck

by Hobbes2d on Sep 27, 2008 8:56 PM PDT

Just thought I would pass along just how eerily similar the two are. Both were phenoms coming up through the PCL back in 2005. Hernandez got promoted first, and Cain led the PCL in K's that year I believe. Although had Felix stayed a little longer, he would have contended for that title I'm sure. Anyway here is their strikingly similar statistics. You might be surprised that Cain is better in a few categories....

Matt Cain (age 23)

104 G, 103 GS, 647 2/3 IP, 552 H, 282 R, 270 ER, 54 HR, 272 BB, 552 SO, 30 W, 42 L, 1.27 WHIP, .230 BAA, 3.75 ERA, 4 CG, 2 SHO

Felix Hernandez (age 22)

104 G, 104 GS, 666 1/3 IP, 663 H, 304 R, 281 ER, 65 HR, 216 BB, 593 SO, 39 W, 36 L, 1.39 WHIP, .260 BAA, 3.80 ERA, 5 CG, 2 SHO

Cain's start tonight is not included, and Felix makes his last start tomorrow. But I just find it funny that Hernandez is so highly touted and talked about and Cain is usually ignored. Maybe that's due to Lincecum's presence, Idk. Obviously both have not played for very good teams, although the Mariners weren't terrible last year. So who sucks more, and who do you think will be the worst of the two in the future?

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Matt Cain

3rd best…..Just kidding. Very good post. Comparing the stats just provides another example of why there is no viable reason to trade Matt Cain. He is a good young pitcher on team with very bats. It’s got to get better for Cain at some point.

My adopted son Matt Downs. Bill Mueller without the two-flap helmet .

by nvsfg on Sep 27, 2008 9:23 PM PDT 0 recs

Probably the TRADED or FA point.

Just an awesome run of luck – mostly bad.
How does he deal with it? Does he focus on “Well , it beats manual labor.”?
Because when I’m having a shitty day laboring in 100 degree heat in the field I say “Well , it beats being Matt Cain.”

Which doesn’t work in the slightest.

"Ain't got a hope in Hell - that's my belief." - Bon Scott

by victor frankenstein on Sep 27, 2008 9:38 PM PDT up 0 recs

Like everything else, it depends on the trade. I can’t imagine the Giants’ passing on the Hardy & Felider for Cain trade.

by tyrannoman on Sep 29, 2008 8:46 AM PDT up 0 recs

Felix is better. But it’s very, very close.

Putting him aside, though: Matt Cain is certainly one of the 15 best pitchers in the National League and a serious argument could be made that he’s top ten. He’s an ace-caliber pitcher.

"he walked 18; new league record! Struck out 18, another new league record! He also hit the sportswriter, the PA announcer, the bull mascot twice..."

by i did my job on Sep 27, 2008 11:31 PM PDT 0 recs

where do you see the Felix is better part in there?

Fairley odd parent to Wendell

by WTF on Sep 29, 2008 10:07 AM PDT up 0 recs

THIS

is why we don’t trade him unless we get multiple ridiculously good prospects/young players back. i.e. why we don’t trade him, because nobody’s going to give us enough.

Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...

by Smoke on the Water on Sep 28, 2008 12:54 AM PDT 0 recs

A 23 year old...

who pitched like a good but not great pitcher and remains under team control for several more seasons is a very very nice asset. I however, consider it pretty silly to view him as untouchable.

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Sep 28, 2008 6:45 AM PDT up 0 recs

When he said...

why we don’t trade him unless we get multiple ridiculously good prospects/young players back.

I think that’s an indicator he’s not viewing him as untouchable. But in a position like the Giants are in, where above average talent is at a minimum, you do not trade a player like Matt Cain unless the other team is the one driving the deal. The other team needs to be the one offering too much for Matt Cain because they believe he can be an anchor for their franchise.

I don’t view Cain as untouchable, but I’d view him as damn near, unless receiving a blow-me-away offer. Anything less would be like giving up Lincecum for Rios.

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Sep 28, 2008 7:22 PM PDT up 0 recs

Even when Cain and Hernandez were first brought up, there was more buzz over Hernandez rather than Cain. I think it’s a toss up between the two and I’m glad the Giants don’t have to face King Feliz regularly.

There amass been plenty of articles written this spring about the stud shortstop Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum , as well as the fluid young outfielders and thirteen basemen Kevin Frandsen.
comics | cartoons | Nattowear | McFAQ

by Natto on Sep 28, 2008 12:58 AM PDT 0 recs

Felix is having...

by far the worst season of his career and even then he has posted slightly better numbers in a tougher league. I like Matt Cain but he simply is not in the same class as Hernandez.

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Sep 28, 2008 6:41 AM PDT 0 recs

Is this sarcasm?

Felix’s ERA is the lowest of any full season of his career.. by far
His W/L % is about the same as his second year (12-14 vs 9-11)
He’s going to have the most Ks of any year of his career, give up the fewest HRs, etc…

Actually, the only way this season is worse than either his NUMBER of wins

Wait, are you a Diamondbacks fan? Are you voting for Brandon Webb?

And since when was it an argument in FAVOR of a player if he’s currently doing worse than he has in the past…

I only have a signature because I recognize everyone else by their sigs, not their usernames..

by lmaozedong on Sep 28, 2008 11:20 AM PDT up 0 recs

sigh

ERA= terrible method of evaluating pitchers

to quote the invaluable lookout landing

" * Felix’s tRA+ dropped from 114 to 110, the worst mark of his career.
    * Felix threw strikes 1% less often in 2008 than in 2007.
    * Felix registered a called strike 17.1% of the time, the worst mark of his career.
    * Felix registered a swinging strike 8.6% of the time, the worst mark of his career.
    * Of balls put in play, 50.7% were on the ground, the worst mark of his career and just under nine points lower than it was previously.
    * 19% of balls in play were of a line drive type, the worst mark of his career.
    * Felix struck out 20.42% of all batters that he faced, the worst mark of his career.
    * Felix walked 9.34% of all batters that he faced, the worst mark of his career.
    * Felix hit 0.93% of all batters that he faced, the worst mark of his career. "

You cannot discount the recent past in evaluating a pitcher. Felix has been significantly better than Matt Cain in his previous seasons.

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Sep 28, 2008 12:00 PM PDT up 0 recs

awesome.

There is a point at which all these numbers don’t really mean anything when what you’re looking for is results.

ERA is obviously a flawed method of evaluating pitchers when it’s the only thing you’re looking at. However, a pitcher’s job is to allow as few runs as he is physically able to do and ERA is one of the more direct methods of measuring that. For example, you cite the % of the time Felix throws strikes this year relative to last year. As an apparently avid baseball fan, I’m sure you know that pitchers are not always looking to throw strikes with every pitch they throw.

Perhaps Felix has started pitching more inside now than he did before (I don’t know), explaining higher HBP rates and BB rates. Perhaps he has learned that he cannot go deep into games if he strikes out everyone a la Rich Harden (again, I don’t know if this has occurred).

You are mistakenly using statistics designed to predict future performance as indicators of how effective a pitcher has been this year. While these statistics may be a warning to fans that Felix may perform worse in the coming years if he continues to put up such peripheral numbers, it’s pretty ridiculous to use all of these as measures of how effective he has been this year. Again, the job of a pitcher is to prevent runs from scoring, and while a pitcher may change the way he gets through a game as his career progresses, if his ERA is a full run lower this year than it was in a previous year, it’s obvious that he has made more of a positive impact on giving his team a chance to win in the games he’s started by doing his job.. allowing less runs to score

I only have a signature because I recognize everyone else by their sigs, not their usernames..

by lmaozedong on Sep 28, 2008 12:37 PM PDT up 0 recs

yes...

but ERA completely fails to extract the defensive component of preventing runs from that of the pitchers. Since pitchers have only modest control over the outcome of balls put in play (if you disagree with this statement than our argument becomes futile), holding up ERA as proof of run stopping ability is a fool’s errand.

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Sep 28, 2008 12:52 PM PDT up 0 recs

Of course it doesn’t take everything into account. Like I said, ERA is a flawed statistic (though I might disagree with you about just HOW flawed), but unless you can show me that Seattle’s defense has turned from one of the worst defenses into one of the best, I’m not really convinced that you can chalk everything up to differences in the outcomes of similar balls put into play this year relative to previous years..

200 innings is not exactly a small sample size, and a whole run in ERA is a pretty big difference to simply attribute to defensive differences..

I only have a signature because I recognize everyone else by their sigs, not their usernames..

by lmaozedong on Sep 28, 2008 1:10 PM PDT up 0 recs

tRA

is a defense independent stat that DOES show that Hernandez has performed worse this season in a defense neutral environment.

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Sep 28, 2008 1:28 PM PDT up 0 recs

One important stat that you didn't mention:

GB%:
Cain: 33.2.
Hernandez: 52.1.

I love Matt, and I do think that he’s underrated, but Felix is basically a younger Cain, with more strikeouts, less BB’s, and a much better GB/FB ratio.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Sep 28, 2008 7:31 AM PDT 0 recs

This

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Sep 28, 2008 5:44 PM PDT up 0 recs

but despite the more strikeouts, fewer walks, and more GB, Felix has a higher WHIP (due to his higher BAA). What’s up with that?

Castillo got the DFA. Guestimate for Castillo DFA to come before the 2009 season = 2.

by kennv on Sep 28, 2008 6:44 PM PDT up 0 recs

Career BABIP

Felix: .317.
Matt: .282.

But how much of that is just luck?

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Sep 29, 2008 3:05 AM PDT up 0 recs

Fly balls result in outs more often than ground balls.

proud father of the newly acquired Brandon Crawford..

by Azmanz on Sep 29, 2008 9:14 AM PDT up 0 recs

Sure, but

Both FB’s and GB’s result in outs way more often than LD’s, and Hernandez’s LD% is lower than Cain’s. I’m not necessarily saying that it’s all luck, but I’m also not convinced that it’s all skill.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Sep 29, 2008 1:38 PM PDT up 0 recs

Nicknames

I think its a case of better nicknames. King Felix. hard to beat. Sportscenter + media love to say it. Plus chicks dig the strikeout. Another hard luck loss and bunch of walks is less sexy. And no news existed in Giants land except Barry Bonds.

Castillo got the DFA. Guestimate for Castillo DFA to come before the 2009 season = 2.

by kennv on Sep 28, 2008 6:46 PM PDT 0 recs

A tale of two Cains

Matt Cain, RHP, San Francisco Giants

nice pitcher to have at that price, may have arm trouble due to heavy workload, walks too many people

Matt Cain, RHP, Boston Red Sox

THE SECOND COMING OF JOSH BECKETT. TOP 10 PITCHER IN BASEBALL. ONCE IN A LIFETIME KIND OF ARM.

by jctGamer on Sep 28, 2008 7:28 PM PDT 0 recs

this

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Sep 29, 2008 7:56 AM PDT up 0 recs