I think Johan won the Cy Young

Are there really any arguments against him? Sure, he has won less win and 46 less strikeouts than Timmy, but I don't think anybody has pitched better than him.

over 3 years ago cheno 24 comments 0 recs |

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My arguments are

that he has one less win and 46 strikeouts less than Timmy.

I was THE GREATEST OF ALL TIME (for 3 days in 1995).

by Mike Benjamin Hit King on Sep 27, 2008 2:39 PM PDT reply actions

Even with a 3.27 to 30.8 K/BB? And the fact that he’s been finishing the season better than anybody else in recent memory?

by cheno on Sep 27, 2008 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions

What is the 30.8 referring to? According to the stats I see, he has a 3.27 k/bb so I see where that part comes from…

Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa

by raisingcain on Sep 28, 2008 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions

Three headed race

Will Santana steal votes from Webb or LinceCycum?

by wilriv21 on Sep 27, 2008 3:21 PM PDT reply actions

I think he’s just going to win it. His numbers say he’s the best pitcher AND he’s done it in a pennant race.

by hammystyle on Sep 27, 2008 4:55 PM PDT up reply actions

Unless Webb really blows up tonight, I think it’ll be 1. Webb, 2. Johan, 3. Timmy. I think wins will still be hard for the voters to ignore, and Johan/Timmy will split the voters who focus on the peripherals – era, wins given up by the bullpen, etc. I can see Johan winning, too, but I’d be much more surprised if Tim did.

As much we love Tim’s K’s, I saw some Arizona source discounting strikeouts as a primary Cy measure this year because of the differences in pitcher’s styles – ie, Webb not striking out as many as others because he’s very effective with the groundball outs. Of course that was biased, but I see the voters latching onto that.

Now I don’t particularly care whether Tim wins or where he places, but I think this year might show that the CYA is not meant to be handicapped during the season, at least compared to other awards. Two months ago the national media had Webb or Sabathia. Last month, the Giants media started campaigning for Tim, and it finally reached the national writers a couple of weeks ago. Only, of course, to have Johan get the East coast media all breathless over his last few starts.

The MVP or ROY awards typically go to batters and I think it’s more feasible to predict them. By mid-September or even at the end of August, you have a pretty good idea of where the batter will end up. Not so with pitchers, whose stats seem to deviate much more. (disclaimer: no actual research done here on media predictions for the CY/MVP/ROY awards as of the end of August compared to the actual winners, although that’d be interesting)

I’m guilty of falling into the hype as much as anybody this year, but in hindsight I’ll try not to get caught up in again. Hmm…well, maybe I can’t help it. A few years ago, I thought Schmidt had it in August before he tanked. When Timmy threw his shutout, I felt at least the Cy would be consolation for any wear and tear. Oops!

by Frank144 on Sep 27, 2008 3:29 PM PDT reply actions

As much we love Tim’s K’s, I saw some Arizona source discounting strikeouts as a primary Cy measure this year because of the differences in pitcher’s styles – ie, Webb not striking out as many as others because he’s very effective with the groundball outs. Of course that was biased, but I see the voters latching onto that.

I think the ground ball versus strikeout pitcher is a neat argument, but I don’t buy that most sportswriters will include that sort of thing in their voting calculations.

Castillo got the DFA. Guestimate for Castillo DFA to come before the 2009 season = 2.

by kennv on Sep 28, 2008 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions

The two most important stats are Innings Pitched and ERA, and therefore unfortunately I agree with you.

by rotorueter on Sep 27, 2008 3:38 PM PDT reply actions

chortle

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Sep 27, 2008 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions

Well, crap.

There amass been plenty of articles written this spring about the stud shortstop Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum , as well as the fluid young outfielders and thirteen basemen Kevin Frandsen.
comics | cartoons | Nattowear | McFAQ

by Natto on Sep 27, 2008 4:05 PM PDT reply actions

Writers have been looking for a reason to give Johan the CYA all season long. They have a reason now.

by Lars The Wanderer on Sep 27, 2008 5:51 PM PDT reply actions

Well, Santana is pretty awesome, so I guess there’s no shame in losing to him if comes to that. I don’t think Webb deserves it.

Santana and Lincecum, though, is a toss up.

by Dan from NM on Sep 27, 2008 7:30 PM PDT reply actions

If the Mets make the playoffs, yes, Santana will win it. If not, its a toss-up.

by KingofDucks1987 on Sep 28, 2008 3:01 AM PDT reply actions

I wonder why Cole Hamels never seem to be mentioned in this debate? He’s been nearly as good as Johan, while pitching in a much tougher park.

I think I’d rank them

1. Santana
2. Hamels
3. Timmy
4. Dempster
5. Webb

by Evan on Sep 28, 2008 9:30 AM PDT reply actions

I agreerealize the park is tougher, but I don’t think Hamels deserves to be ahead of Timmy. Timmy has the ERA and strikeouts, and 17 fewer home runs allowed (as well as 12 fewer than Santana, 2 fewer than Webb, and 8 fewer than Sabathia).

I really want Timmy to win, although I think his chances are not so great right now. The only acceptable choice if he doesn’t get it is Santana, IMO.

Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa

by raisingcain on Sep 28, 2008 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions

The difference in home runs is pretty amazing, but that’s already accounted for in the ERAs …

Hamels has thrown 11 innings more than Timmy (before today) but given up 19 more runs. But his home park is a lot tougher. On the other hand, he’s had a better defense behind him….

Santana has both a good defense and a good park to work with …

I think (without really checking) that Hamels and Santana have had to face tougher opposition than Timmy…

Both Hamels and Santana have had pennant race pressure to deal with …

But Timmy has had spent all season pitching for a team that simply can’t score runs, which is its own form of pressure …

It’s close. All I’m really sure of is that Brandon Webb shouldn’t win.

by Evan on Sep 28, 2008 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions

No

hamels and Santana both have lower tRA’s. Santana has gotten very lucky with his park and defense behind him.

Tim leads the NL in tRA+ (for the full season). the component stats show that hamels is superior to santana, neither are superior to webb and lincecum rules above all else.

Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Sep 28, 2008 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions

Component stats are the best way to measure a pitcher’s skills, but we’re talking here about performance. The name of the game is keeping runs off the board, and identifying the responsibility for doing that in different contexts is a lot more complicated than tRA+ and similar stats can handle.

Santana’s strikeout rate plummeted this year, but he also allowed far fewer runs than he did in 2007 (or 2006, or 2005). You say this was luck, but isn’t it also possible that given the change in his context he elected to pitch to contact more, letting the forgiving park and superb defense work for him?

Now that I’ve looked through their game logs, it’s clear that Hamels and Santana did face significantly stronger offenses than Lincecum did, and of course they did so in higher-stakes circumstances.

But the more I think about it, the more I’m in the Sabathia camp. He had the best season of any pitcher in the game by far, and it doesn’t make sense to penalize him just because he happened to get traded at midseason.

by Evan on Sep 28, 2008 6:51 PM PDT up reply actions

But!

Strikeouts, k’s are a much better way of ensuring an out rather than leaving it up to “stellar defense” because stellar defense allows a runner 3% of the time, whereas a k allows it .00001% of the time.

Also, looking at the LD% of the pitcher is an important measure of how hard and how well the pitcher was hit.

even “earned” runs are a good enough measure that is free from defense and RP influence.

Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Sep 28, 2008 7:23 PM PDT up reply actions

Sure, the strikeout is the best way to get an out. But are you really going to punish a guy for getting his outs some other way? Pitchers work with what they have. If you’ve got a great defense behind you, you don’t worry so much about hitters making contact. If your team has an offense that scores plenty of runs, as both Hamels and Santana did, you risk the occasional home run in order to avoid big innings and keep your pitch count down. Etc.

In this context, I’m just not comfortable judging a pitcher’s performance by how many runs a formula says he should have allowed rather than how many he did allow.

by Evan on Sep 29, 2008 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions

I am

because the better pitcher is usually the one with the 98 mph fastball rather than the 89 one.

I don’t care if brandon webb is performing the best with regards to his skill, if timmy’s skill level is even higher, you have to go with that. the isn’t the Tries Best With What He Has Award. This is the Cy Young.

Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Sep 29, 2008 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions

FWIW

Jayson Stark will be voting for Timmy.

No, my Crazy Crab bobblehead is not for sale.

by Kitspool on Sep 28, 2008 11:45 AM PDT reply actions

Good

He may live.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Sep 28, 2008 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions