Romo for closer

by kvdp12 on Sep 26, 2008 11:02 PM PDT Comment 60 comments

I dont mean to let 40 saves be just forgotten, but Brian Wilson is not the solution for closer. Yeah strikeout per inning stuff. Yeah 40 saves is a nice and shinny number. But a real ugly number that takes ALOT away from that '40' is '4.70'. Thats our would-be lights out closers .era.

I dont mean to sound ungreatful for what Wilson has done this season, but if Romo is rolling in the 8th, and having now thrown 5 straight scoreless innings against LA, dont be so baseball stubbern to think, 'well a closer is for the ninth'. If Romo is the best pitcher (as his 2.18 era, and equal strikeout per inning stuff seems to demonstrate) and is rolling, then have him stay out. Wilson is just to rocky, and chancy to pitch with a closers lead.

I dont know. Maybe its just me being upset after 3 dodger runs in the ninth, but after seeing Romo be more dominant then Wilson ever has, a 4.70 era just resonates Benitez to me.

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the idea of a closer is just stupid. if romo is the best reliever we have, he should be used in the most high leverage situations rather than just as the 9th inning guy.

by TimLincecumIsGod on Sep 26, 2008 11:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

this

by Viliphied on Sep 26, 2008 11:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

most definitely agree

by timmeh on Sep 26, 2008 11:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

groupthink agree

by rotorueter on Sep 26, 2008 11:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You can think that the role of closer is stupid, but that won’t change the way 30 MLB and too many minor league teams to count operate their relief pitching.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Sep 27, 2008 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

obviously

but i can hope that the giants accidently use their bullpen correctly by leaving wilson at closer and using romo when it really matters

by TimLincecumIsGod on Sep 27, 2008 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

When was the last time Wilson was in a game? Just wearing off the rust…

"Strikeouts are boring - besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls. More democratic."

by giants9107 on Sep 26, 2008 11:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

If Romo was closer, then there would have been nobody to get out of the jam Hinshaw created in the 7th.

Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.

by groug on Sep 26, 2008 11:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

That’s just an example of reactionary thinking the other way.

You want your best reliever available at any time. Which is why it’s better if Romo’s not the closer.

Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.

by groug on Sep 26, 2008 11:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

IAWTG

There amass been plenty of articles written this spring about the stud shortstop Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum , as well as the fluid young outfielders and thirteen basemen Kevin Frandsen.
comics | cartoons | Nattowear | McFAQ

by Natto on Sep 26, 2008 11:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

IAWTOG

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Sep 26, 2008 11:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am hoping that this is a Groud reference. Even if it isn’t, I will assume so.

by rotorueter on Sep 26, 2008 11:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it’s a Boulder Skull the Great Button Pusher reference. If Boulder Skull believes you’re the closer then only in the 9th inning will you be used. Leverage be damned.

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

by daveinexile on Sep 27, 2008 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I Agree With the Groud!

Wait… that was groug?! Ugh, I hate that guy.

by Natto on Sep 27, 2008 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If your supporting evidence is the reliever’s ERA, I’m going to have to pass.

Plus, we could probably use Romo much more effectively if we’re not marrying him to the 9th inning.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Sep 27, 2008 12:24 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

what if he just makes out with the ninth?

Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus.

by oldjacket on Sep 27, 2008 12:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whoa whoa whoa! Now you’re going too far in the other direction!

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Sep 27, 2008 3:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Making out is okay. That’s just first base, second base at the most. And I can live with somebody getting to second base with Romo.

Catcher are base running. Hitters are offense.

by thehavenot on Sep 27, 2008 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you must be a fantasy baseball manager because Wilson’s 4.70 ERA is only a problem in the fantasy world. Trust me, I own him too and it’s frustrating as hell in a league. BUT, in the real world, Wilson gets the job done and his blown save rate is pretty low. Because when all is said and done, if Wilson closes the game, albeit it with 2-3 runs added, a win is a win.

-D

by dw4848 on Sep 27, 2008 2:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

the 4.70 ERA is a problem in the real world too.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on Sep 27, 2008 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes but

the 4.70 ERA is largely influenced by his terrible performance in non-save situations and a couple outlier games where he just got shelled (such as last night). When you’re the closer, by definition you’re going to pitch fewer innings and therefore any runs scored against you will quickly inflate your ERA.

Which is a long way of saying Wilson has definite room for improvement in 2009 but I don’t think he’s lost the closers job.

No, my Crazy Crab bobblehead is not for sale.

by Kitspool on Sep 27, 2008 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That’s true, but I still think it’s fair to say that his overall performance this year hasn’t been ideal. His ERA is up to almost 4 in save situations at this point.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on Sep 27, 2008 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It’s not just the 4+ ERA (which is also where his career numbers now sit after 116 IP), it’s the things driving the ERA that bother me — like the 28 walks in 62 innings (56 BB in 116IP on the career) and the consequent 1.5 WHIP. He’s putting alot of guys on base, and even with strikeout stuff, pitchers who put lots of guys on base will tend to give up runs.

Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!

by Roger on Sep 29, 2008 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wilson is the closer. He has traditional closer stuff and closer mentality, where he is able to shake off games like last night. Romo’s been great, but he hasn’t closed a major league game, and he’s been so good he has yet to face adversity. How do you know how he’ll react when that happens?? Not only that, but the league is still unfamiliar with Romo, and that’s a huge advantage for him right now that Wilson doesn’t have. I like Romo, and think he’ll have a decent career as a setup man, but once the league gets to know him a little better I think it will ultimately prove out that Wilson will be the best of the pair.

Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment

by rxmeister on Sep 27, 2008 7:02 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Can we stop comparing each Giants reliever to Blownitez? Please?

Castillo got the DFA. Guestimate for Castillo DFA to come before the 2009 season = 2.

by kennv on Sep 27, 2008 8:51 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

But must keep picking the scab. It oozes so prettily.

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

by daveinexile on Sep 27, 2008 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Rockies went through something like this in ‘07 Between Fuentes and Corpas. I don’t like what Wilson did last night but the Romo/Wilson debate is a good one to have. Unlike say are traditional "Who is playing 1st?" Or "Who plays 3rd? " debates. They are both unsavory and usually not that enjoyable.

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

by daveinexile on Sep 27, 2008 10:07 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

it really doesn’t matter though. You need a solid setup man or you don’t even get to your closer. When Bochy demoted Tyler Walker for blowing so many eighth inning leads, all he did was move him to the sixth and seventh inning where he just blew leads earlier. We’re lucky to now have good options in both the eighth and ninth innings. Not only that, but they’re both happy in their roles. If you reverse them, I’m sure Wilson would be pissed. What good would that do?

Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment

by rxmeister on Sep 27, 2008 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

In my opinion reversing them right now would not do much good. But it’s a nice option to have. Next season will be nice and long, just like every season, and it darn good option to have in a pinch.

The Walker angle is interesting because it shows how resistance Bochy is to hitting a different button when the normal button is broken ~~to the point of giving you an electric shock~~. That aside if I have to make up a run the more outs to do it in the better. Especially given the current Giants offense. It is the same reason I hate rampant match up orgies. Go to the Pen often enough and you will get a guy who just doesn’t have it on that day. Then your forced to get a run or two back with less then 10 outs 3 of which will be against their best bull pen pitcher.

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

by daveinexile on Sep 27, 2008 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

We should leave him where he is so he can be used in situations like the one last night where there are runners on 1st and 3rd with one out. Wilson wouldn’t have gotten out of that.

by boonitez on Sep 27, 2008 11:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

How many other closers

have 6 blown saves this year? I don’t care about ERAs, but I do care about blown saves.

NO, we're not trading Matt Cain! What's that you say? We are? Armageddon is upon us!

by Buck Henry on Sep 27, 2008 11:48 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

lots

Krod, Valverde, Wood, Nathan to name a few. Papelbon has 5

by Viliphied on Sep 27, 2008 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

DFA all closers!!!

Castillo got the DFA. Guestimate for Castillo DFA to come before the 2009 season = 2.

by kennv on Sep 27, 2008 5:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Instead of considering trading Cain would hope Sabean would look into the possibility of trading Brian Wilson. Wilson is young, inexpensive and now has a complete season of closing in the ML. Any team considering signing the likes of KRod might also might be interested in trading for Wilson. Possibly the Angels could replace KRod with Wilson or the Mets replace Wagner with Wilson.

by wilriv21 on Sep 27, 2008 1:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

It would depend on that package.

But I am not too wild about Sabean’s track record for finding late inning bull pen help the last handful of years. Nor getting proper value when tradeingin the last handful of years. If the team already has 3 solid good arms back their then the alter is less of a concern. Those are my caveits.

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

by daveinexile on Sep 27, 2008 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

retry

It would depend on that package of coarse.

But I am not too wild about Sabean’s track record for finding late inning bull pen help the last handful of years. Nor getting proper value when trading young pen arms the last handful of years. If the team already has 3 solid good arms back their then the later is less of a concern. Those are my caveats. But that is not to be mistaken for a Veto.

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

by daveinexile on Sep 27, 2008 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m such a closer agnostic that it doesn’t really matter to me. So long as Romo and Wilson are pitching late innings, I’m good.

Catcher are base running. Hitters are offense.

by thehavenot on Sep 27, 2008 1:43 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Wilson’s last appearance, prior to last night, was five days earlier. That appearance was 7 days after the previous one. You’d expect him to be a bit rusty after going that long without pitching. He did very well in his last appearance though.

by G-Rob on Sep 27, 2008 2:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

One thing I don’t really understand is the “Romo is our best reliever by far!!!111” sentiment some seem to have. Yes, he’s done very well, but he’s had a relatively small sample size, and considering he hasn’t spent much time in the majors, it is very possible the league will “figure him out” somewhat. Now, I still believe he will be a good major leaguer, but I think it’s a bit too early to judge. Meanwhile, I think most people would agree Wilson’s done fine as the closer this year, and he should be in that position starting 09 also. As mentioned above, the ERA has been inflated by several outings (including non-save situations and times where he’s had extremely long layoffs).

Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
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by raisingcain on Sep 27, 2008 2:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Can we all agree that ERA is a profoundly flawed stat?

Great, let’s stop citing it!

Wilson is pretty much dead-league average in terms of tRA, with 4.11 expected runs allowed per 9 innings. Romo, with a considerably smaller sample size, is 14th in the league with a 2.61. Small sample size alert, yes; but goddamn, he’s been effective so far.

I don’t buy any argument that lets Wilson off the hook: long layoffs, non-save sitch, etc. He got very, very lucky this year to get as many saves as he did. Also, he needs to get it thru his thick freaking skull that you can’t just throw fastballs over the plate to great hitters. Develop a true out pitch or watch your save numbers get cut in half next year, Bri.

Here’s your NL tRA leaderboard for anyone who’s interested. http://statcorner.com/leader.php?type=4&year=2008&leag=NL

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Sep 27, 2008 3:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

and by way of clarification

I’m not saying Romo should be “promoted” to closer over WIlson. I’m just saying Wilson is overrrated and overvalued, and therefore should be traded for a huge package of position players.

/ducks

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Sep 27, 2008 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

BUT HE WAS AN ALL-STAR!!!!!

by Natto on Sep 27, 2008 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

if you think he’s overrated, why wouldn’t GM’s of other teams feel the same way?? I also don’t think he’s overrated. Have you seen what possible playoff teams like the Mets, Phillies, and Brewers have been going through these last few weeks with their bullpens?? They would kill for a reliever like Wilson. Luis Ayala the closer for the Mets? Salamon Torres the closer for the Brewers?? Lidge is a great closer, but they often can’t get it to him.

Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment

by rxmeister on Sep 27, 2008 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

if you think he’s overrated, why wouldn’t GM’s of other teams feel the same way??

That makes no sense.

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Sep 27, 2008 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t think he “just throws fastballs over the plate.” He might have been guilty of that earlier, but I think the Burrell HR in Philadelphia cured him of that problem. He’s thrown alot more sliders since then, but when he’s not getting them over the plate, he really doesn’t have much choice other than going back to the heat.

Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment

by rxmeister on Sep 27, 2008 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess you didn’t see the game last night.

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Sep 27, 2008 7:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

What exactly is..

tRA, and pRAA?

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by Azmanz on Sep 27, 2008 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

tRA involves assigning run and out values to all events under a pitcher’s control and coming up with an expected number of runs allowed and outs generated in a defense and park neutral environment. tRA is on a R/9 scale and does not involve any regression of the rates so while it should be more useful at determining a pitcher’s true talent level, the best method for pitching projection is to use tRA*, the regressed version of tRA.

pRAA
Stands for pitching runs above average. Using tRA as the benchmark, the formula is (lgTRA * xOuts / 27) – xRuns.

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Sep 27, 2008 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

In other words:

tRA looks at the 8 possible outcomes for an at bat – K, BB, HBP, LD, GB, FB, IFB (infield fly ball), and HR, and assigns them run values based on play-by-play data**. tRA is a better indicator of skill than ERA, because it only focuses on things that are under the complete control of the pitcher (not affected by defense).

You could say that in the end the only thing that matters is runs scored, but sometimes pitchers manage to have low ERA’s thanks to good defense or simply luck. A good example of this is 2007 Lowry having a lower ERA than 2007 Lincecum, even though Lincecum was better in nearly every aspect of he game (struck out more, walked fewer, got more ground balls, gave up fewer line drives). Lincecum’s tRA, on the other hand, was much better than Lowry’s (3.62, compared to 5.41). Very, very few pitchers manage to consistently have low ERA’s without having a lot of K’s and/or few walk etc…

**I will use walks as an example: With the bases empty and no outs, an average of 0.555 runs per inning are scored. With a runner on first and nobody out, an average of 0.953 runs per inning are scored. So a BB with the bases empty and nobody on is worth 0.398 runs. You basically do this for every possible situation, and then you can estimate the average value of a walk.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Sep 28, 2008 7:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

With the bases empty and no outs, an average of 0.555 runs per inning are scored. With a runner on first and nobody out, an average of 0.953 runs per inning are scored.

Are = is.

I think.

English is hard.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Sep 28, 2008 7:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Are = are.

Runs are scored.

Therefore, runs per inning are scored.

Inning is not scored.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Sep 28, 2008 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

L’anglais est très difficile.

your 2008 SF Giants: this isn’t totally insane, just really stupid

by Lyle on Sep 28, 2008 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

C’est vrai.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Sep 28, 2008 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

ce n’est pas facile, mais il est un langage pas tres difficile.

Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Sep 28, 2008 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well yeah I’m not that stupid…It’s the “average” that confused me (an average of x is scored).

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Sep 28, 2008 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It’s okay for starters.

Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus.

by oldjacket on Sep 28, 2008 8:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ben Sheets

Anyone get a chance to watch the Brewers vs Cubs today? A banged up Ben Sheets looked like he was between a rock and a hard place. A soon to be free agent who is currently pitching with a sore arm. Does he continue to pitch for the Brewers and risk injury thus costing himself and his family millions of dollars or should he be taped up and take one for the team?

by wilriv21 on Sep 27, 2008 5:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

The problem with Wilson....

….is that he just absolutely refuses to pitch inside. It has gotten ridiculous. Pitch after pitch pounded on the outside corner never once putting in the mind of the hitter that he’s going to bust him in on the hands. Batters are diving out there not worried about the inside pitch making Wilson eninently hittable. He just has to get out of this mind set if he’s ever going to be effective.

Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???

by oldrips on Sep 27, 2008 6:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

He does seem to be a white version of this guy. Hopefully he learns faster , like in ‘09, or he can go they was he went only sooner.

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

by daveinexile on Sep 30, 2008 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The problem with Benitez wasn’t JUST his blowing save after save (albeit, that was a large part of the problem). The situation was compounded by his bad attitude.

If Brian Wilson were a total douche and was blowing saves at a fairly good clip, I’d say the comparison might hold water. I don’t care for the ERA either, and he’s gotten roughed up a little, and his game planning might need work, and his tRA (not going to bother looking this up what this is right now) might be league average… But he’s no frickin’ Armando Benitez.

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Sep 28, 2008 11:00 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs