The Brews/Phils would love not to pay these guys big money in order to get a locked-in Cain at a discount? I’m shocked and appalled.

1 bat no matter how productive is not going to make enough of a difference.

Cain would be so unperfect for Philly. His flyball rates in that park would spell trouble.

Ryan Howard sOPS+ 117
Prince Fielder sOPS+ 117

Either would become the best hitter on the Giants but they aren’t truly amazing hitters for their position. I liked Howard and Prince better when they were OPS+ing over 150.

If Sabean turns Cain into an overweight 1B who might be in decline (Hi, Mo Vaugh) then I will cry tears.

everybody thinks that the Giants can get anybody they want (except Pujols) for Matt Cain. But NO ONE has cited one example of any actual discussions going on. NO ONE has cite anything other than the Giants refuse to even engage in any sort of negotiations re Cain and won’t even entertain offers.

Now, it certainly is worth listening to big offers, but having Cain for 3 more years at an uber-reasonable price is a big help to the financially inept Giants.

The Giants basically have 6 starting pitchers under contract for next year:
SP – Tim Lincecum – $405K
SP – Matt Cain – $2.65MM
SP – Jonathan Sanchez – $400K
SP – Noah Lowry – $4.5MM
SP – Barry Zito – $18.5MM
SP/RP – Kevin Correia – $1.075MM

That amounts to about $27.5M for 6 guys, which is about $4.5M per guy. that’s on the high side, but not that bad. Since Lowry isn’t likely coming back, the team would have to replace Cain with somebody. CC wouldn’t be the answer. Even if he got Gil Meche money ($11M per) that’d still increase the price of the starting rotation by a about $8M, and CC will definitely get more than that, unless there’s major backloading of the deal.

Anyway, no one in the Giants system is ready to be a major league starter that isn’t already one, which means they’d have to get one via trade or free agency (more $). If Howard were the guy, for example, perhaps the Phils would throw in Kyle Kendrick or somebody like that, but it would definitely be a downgrade from Cain. The rotation would be Lincecum, an inconsistent Sanchez and a bunch of crap. And we still wouldn’t win next year.

I suppose you could take your lumps next season and wait for Mad Bum and Alderson to get here in 2010/2011 (assuming they’re sure things), but why not just wait until then to deal with Cain? He’s a FA after 2011. He’d most certainly be a type A FA if he left and in 3 years, the budget will likely be bigger than now. Plus, Posey will be up and Villalona will be close, if not up already.

The bottom line is that the Giants seem to be committed to rebuilding through the draft and international signings over the course of several seasons, and while a trade and free agent signings will happen here or there, a huge trade like this, before the team is ready to compete, doesn’t necessarily fit in with that strategy of building home grown talent and riding out the bad years while letting the kids develop.

can we just get that guy?

I haven’t watched Howard much at all but I see that since his MVP season (167 OPS+) he’s posted a 144 OPS+ in 2007 and a 121 in 2008. That’s the difference between, well, an MVP caliber performance, and a pretty good first baseman, and it’s not an encouraging trend line.

In a situation like the Giants are in, where very good talent is a rare commodity, trading ONE valuable established major leaguer for ONE other valuable established major leaguer (of approximately equal value) DOES NOT improve this team!

He really should be playing in the AL and only touching grass during interleague play (ala David Ortiz.) Even JT Snow couldn’t turn that guy into an average fielder. I would consider Prince + Hardy for Cain, but there would have to be contract extensions involved and I am still not sure the Brewcrew would be up for that deal

how refreshing.

Nah