Rotation slots

by GiantFan on Sep 26, 2008 6:05 AM PDT Comment 18 comments

Often pitchers get categorized into what type of starter pitchers are, whether they're an ace, a fifth starter, or third starter at best! It's one way to try classify pitchers, but often it seems to be used lazily (as are terms like fourth outfielders) and often gets biased by what type of team you're looking at (for example, Giants starters are negatively biased due to our strong pitching).

I noticed, and haven't seen mentioned, an article about this on Lookout landing, attempting to define the boundaries of this categories, using tRA+. If you're unfamilar with tRA+ then there's an introduction here.

With respect to the Giants it implies the following categories for our starting rotation:

Lincecum this year has a tRA+ of 152, which is obviously superb. Unsurprisingly that classifies him as a well above average #1 starter. Last year he had a tRA+ of 139 which would still have placed him as an above average #1 starter.

Cain this year has a tRA+ of 111, which is ok, but classifies him as about an average #2 starter. The interesting thing about Cain though, is though that the previous 2 seasons, he's had a tRA+ of 132 & 133, which puts him as a slightly above average #1 starter. Why his tRA+ is so low this year, i'm not sure, but looking at his numbers it looks to be down to the fact that his LD rate is higher this year (20.7 compared to 16.1/16.2) and his GB rate is lower (32.6 compared to 38.6/39.0)

Sanchez this year has a tRA+ of 113, which is decent, & classifies him as about an average #2 starter. Obviously that's a lot better than his ERA suggests, and Sanchez tends to have underperformed his peripherals quite a lot this year.

Zito has had a tRA+ of 92, down slightly from 96, and that puts him as an above average fourth starter.

Correia has had a tRA+ of 83, which is around the #4/#5 starter barrier. Last year his tRA+ was 140 which is pretty impressive, although obviously he was a reliever for a lot of the year, and it's very inconsistant with his previous performances.

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Cain this year has a tRA+ of 111, which is ok, but classifies him as about an average #2 starter. The interesting thing about Cain though, is though that the previous 2 seasons, he’s had a tRA+ of 132 & 133, which puts him as a slightly above average #1 starter. Why his tRA+ is so low this year, i’m not sure, but looking at his numbers it looks to be down to the fact that his LD rate is higher this year (20.7 compared to 16.1/16.2) and his GB rate is lower (32.6 compared to 38.6/39.0)

tRA+ = a pitcher’s tRA compared to the league average. The league average tRA this year has been much lower than it was in 2006 and 2007, due to an overall offensive decline. That, combined with Cain’s uncharacteristically high LD rate, slightly higher than usual FB rate, and absolutely terrible GB rate, is the reason Cain’s tRA+ is lower than it was in 2006/7.

Still, a tRA+ of 111 is good, and when you consider IP, Cain was probably a bit better than an average #2 this year.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Sep 26, 2008 7:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Matt Cain

Obligated: Average #3 #2 Starter

At Best!

Adopted brother of the AnVil / GIANTSPACE™ returns!

by SoFa King Mike on Sep 26, 2008 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Matt Cain Pitch

I believe that on average, Giants fans over-expect from Matt Cain and under-appreciate him.

I understand the high expectations. Matt had a very fine minor league career and reached the major leagues at the age of 20. After being called up, he posted an outstanding 2.33 ERA in the month-plus that made up his 2005 season. But there were warning signs that we might be overrating him:

. Admittedly Tim Lincecum’s 0.29 ERA at Fresno came when he was two and a half years older than Matt, and it came in a tiny (Tim) sample of just five games. But in huge contrast, Matt’s Fresno ERA was 4.39. He walked just over a batter every two innings, and he yielded 22 homers in 145.2 frames. Felix Hernandez, who has had his own struggles as a major leaguer but now is having his best full season, was a year and a half younger than Cain, yet posted a 2.25 ERA in the PCL that wasn’t much more than half Matt’s.

. Remember that epic 14-pitch battle with Todd Helton in Matt’s first game as a Giant? Matt hung in there and finally got Todd on a fly to deep left-center. But as successful as that debut and his brief first season were (2.33 ERA), Matt showed that night that he might not have the great swing-through stuff most aces have.

So how has Matt performed as a Giant? Well, better than most give him credit for. His 117 career ERA+ is the very same ERA+ Gaylord Perry posted over his wet-but-effective Hall of Fame career.

Matt struggled at the beginning and ends of this season, but posted a 3.12 ERA over 156.1 innings in 23 starts in between, striking out 138 while walking 57. That’s four months of pretty decent consistency — and inconsistency has been Matt’s greatest problem.

Matt has yielded just two runs over 13 innings in his last two starts, and has a chance tonight to end the season on three straight good starts. Whether the Giants keep him or trade him, it would be good to end Matt’s season on a strong note.

Matt has pitched under a lot of pressure the past two seasons, getting the second-least run support of any NL pitcher in each of those seasons.

Perhaps he could use a bit more fan support, as well.

by sharksrog on Sep 26, 2008 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Matt gets plenty of fan support from Giants’ fans. I never hear him booed, and rarely if ever see him disparaged at this site, other than that tongue in cheek thing we like to do where we say he sucks. (unless you have misinterepreted that). I DO believe we overestimate him though. I believe if you offer him to another team for their best player, they’re going to say no and ask for Lincecum. They would love to have Cain, but would probably offer you a similar type player, a hitter with a high ceiling that has been a bit of a disappointment as well.

Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment

by rxmeister on Sep 26, 2008 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

To say Cain has been a dissapointment

Is insane.

Geez, we’ve got this young in house controlled pitcher, and all he has turned out to be so far is a border line ace / #2 starter.

Fucking disappointing, dude.

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Sep 26, 2008 5:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I still think he’s going to win twenty games someday. I think the fact that he’s still only 23 doesn’t quite click with most people. He’s going to be around for a long time and win a lot of games. I hope it’s with the Giants.

"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean

by Smotheredinhugs on Sep 30, 2008 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I will mention, in regards to this

That 1.) It is interesting that they list Zito as an above average #4. I’ve been saying this all along, but the general consensus here seems to be that he is worse than worthless.

2.) That Correia is a borderline #4/5. Again, I’ve been saying this all along even tho people seem to think now that he should be non-tendered. Why non tender a guy who you would have to pay 4-5m on the FA market for ?

I didn’t read the study yet – but from what was posted here it looks like one flaw is considering Innings pitched. I would argue that a guy who only gives you an average of 5 IP @ 120 TRA+ is not a valuable as a guy who gives you an average of 6 IP @ 115 TRA+, for example.

I plan to look into this soon. I guess now is as good a time as any…

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Sep 26, 2008 5:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I Also Think That Games Started Should Matter

A pitcher that can consistently give yuu 30 or more starts every year is worth more then one that always seems to be missing multiple starts every year.

by giantsrainman on Sep 26, 2008 5:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

P.S.

To me the bottom line is that yes quality matters more then quanity but quanity still does matter.

by giantsrainman on Sep 26, 2008 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think

a lot of times how many starts a pitcher makes is dictated by the team and not by the pitcher himself.

Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Sep 26, 2008 8:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I also like the point here. If that starter #4 or #5 starter is chewing up around 7 innings a start and not leave with his team in a big hole I would say 30 teams in the league will feed the guy as many starts as his body can handle.

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

by daveinexile on Sep 27, 2008 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the MCCW on Correia is that we like him better as a reliever.

Baggs says he might get non-tendered because of attitude issues.

Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus.

by oldjacket on Sep 26, 2008 11:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree that’s seems to be the consensus take on Correia.

I also lean against it. When he was a reliever in ‘07 it seemed a little too often a fly ball turned into a big fly and with less then 10 outs that is a big hill for the Giants "o" to climb. They have been doing better of late but I don’t yet trust our fledging "o" to get 1-2 runs inside of 10 outs 3 of which would be against the other teams best relief arm.

I am not against Correia doing time in the ‘pen just think fighting for that 5 starter role isa proper please to try him on this club. Of coarse all bets are off if he is getting his getting sever attitude issues.

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

by daveinexile on Sep 27, 2008 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the best use of Correia is as a starter, although I concede that popular sentiment here seems to be otherwise.

your 2008 SF Giants: this isn’t totally insane, just really stupid

by Lyle on Sep 29, 2008 6:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Attitude issues?

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Sep 29, 2008 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t think he took kindly to being dropped from the rotation in September. On the other hand, Henny certainly seems to be a non-tender candidate as well, because $1.3 mil (the minimum they could offer in arbitration) is a heck of a lot to pay for someone who just spent the summer in Fresno.

Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!

by Roger on Sep 29, 2008 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

One thing for Hennessy is he now has a lot less MLB service time then Correia . If Hennessy puts up decent numbers as bottom rotation pitcher , or even the pen, he cold look attractive as a team controlled arm in part of a package real easy.

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

by daveinexile on Oct 1, 2008 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I didn’t read the study yet – but from what was posted here it looks like one flaw is considering Innings pitched. I would argue that a guy who only gives you an average of 5 IP @ 120 TRA+ is not a valuable as a guy who gives you an average of 6 IP @ 115 TRA+, for example.

That’s why we should compare to replacement level, not average.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Sep 27, 2008 5:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs