Improving the Giants' rotation (and the rest of the team with it)
I've discussed this with xanthan via e-mail. I think he might have a post like this over at his site but I'll put one here just in case he hasn't.

I don't know how many of you have read The Book by Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman and Andy Dolphin, but if you haven't, it's definitely something to pick up (if you do, please do so from the site I linked; it helps out the authors, and they in turn are donating a good deal of their royalties to Retrosheet). Basically, the three authors investigate certain baseball strategies (e.g. reliever use, platooning, the sacrifice bunt) and come to conclusions based on empirical evidence (using play-by-play data mainly from 1999-2002). The run values for this time period are slightly higher than now, but the difference is essentially negligible. The strategies presented in The Book make sense (based on the numbers) but are all a bit unorthodox. This one is especially "strange" but would make the most sense for any team that wanted to score more runs (or need to, like the Giants).
In Chapter 5, entitled "Batting (Dis)Order", Tom Tango explores various ways to optimize one's lineup. There are a bunch of little things Bochy could do to squeeze out a couple runs here and there, such as batting the pitcher 8th (it actually works! for a couple of runs a year anyway). I don't want to describe all the little things because that's a lot to write, but if you optimized your lineup like Tango showed in his constructed simulation model (that mirrors reality pretty much perfectly, as shown in The Book), the result is about 10-15 runs per season. That's only about 1-1 1/2 wins per season added, which isn't that much really. However, Tango presents an interesting question:
What if you don't ever let the pitcher hit?
According to his model, an average NL team will score 5.25 when the pitcher never hits, yet when the pitcher hits 65% of the time (which is how it is now), the team will only score 4.83 runs per game. That difference is about 68 runs per season, and, FTW!, that's 68 EXTRA RUNS PER SEASON. That's between 6-7 wins right there. Now, as Tango points out, the value of having your good (Cain), great (Lincecum), and above-average (Sanchez) pitchers on the mound is greater than substituting them for an average (at least) batter. One should, therefore, only use this strategy of never allowing the pitcher to hit when you're talking about average/below-average starters on the mound.
The Giants fit these roles pretty much perfectly, with a true 1, 2, 3 , some candidates for the 4/5 roles and a slew of good relievers.
How the "rotation" would look.
Day 1: Lincecum
Day 2: Cain
Day 3: Zito/Correia/Valdez (Tango says 3rd best reliever here, so I'm just going to throw Merkin in here, with the assumption he's healthy next season)
Day 4: Sanchez
Day 5: Correia/Zito/Valdez
The "three-headed monster" takes you through the sixth inning most days.
Relievers 1,2, and 4-6 would be used as usual, plus if any pitcher of the "three-headed" mini-rotation pitched a relatively short outing on an earlier day, he could also pitch in relief.
This setup also allows the bench to be stronger overall, with 6 bench players instead of the customary 4. Best of all, some of those guys don't even need to be able to field well in order to contribute regularly.
The only obvious downfalls here are:
a. Zito/Correia/whomever you assigned to those roles would probably be pretty upset.
b. The best bench bats wouldn't be there at the end of the games (for higher-leverage situations) for some games.
c. The third-best reliever is pretty restricted.
Not a whole lot really.
Using these strategies, along with the other ones listed in the chapter, would (in the model) add around 50 runs per season to the team's total and keep the pitching/runs against around the same level. That's about 5 wins, which is pretty damn huge.
Of course, this in itself won't help our beloved Giants become contenders. But it sure couldn't hurt.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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BTW
Mets Geek had a similar post earlier this season.
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
by baetown415 on Sep 23, 2008 2:50 PM PDT 0 recs
that sounds like a shit load of managing
how ’bout if they just get better hitters instead.
voila! more runs…
Fairley odd parent to Wendell
by WTF on Sep 23, 2008 3:09 PM PDT 0 recs
OR
they could do both. and the ~50 run increase per season would still hold
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
by baetown415 on
Sep 23, 2008 3:21 PM PDT
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Recommended for intrigue on a pure nerdability level
but 3rd least likely situation to ever happen… AT BEST!!!!
¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!
by hairball on Sep 23, 2008 3:55 PM PDT 0 recs
The tough thing for me is that this would be prone to a crapload of variance, since it seems that the value isn’t specifically dependent on an above or below average starter, but rather an above or below average start. Say Cain goes 4 innings and has given up 4 runs. Then, by this, I take it, the sensible thing to do would be to take him out of the game to try to get that extra expected half run from rotating pitchers the rest of the game. And likewise, say Zito’s gone 3 innings with 7 Ks…
I don’t know. In application, a Cain / Lincecum / Zito/Correia/Valdez / Sanchez / Correia/Zito/Valdez would be messy because each individual start doesn’t adhere to the rule of averages. And doing it the other way, based on something closer to x runs through y innings = start the roller, seems like a serious way to tax the hell out of your bullpen.
I think it’s too messy, and probably puts too many innings on short inning players. By the second half of the year, fatigue might be giving you more problems than an extra half run two out of every five days would be giving you help.
But that’s just my gut talking.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Sep 23, 2008 3:55 PM PDT 0 recs
well
it’s only a quarter-run for taking Cain out (half of the half-run edge) because there are 5 innings left.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on
Sep 23, 2008 4:21 PM PDT
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I could imagine Bochy's head exploding...
Although, we could probably save a few hundred runs from scoring by effectivly shortening all of Zito’s starts.
by R I O T on Sep 23, 2008 4:05 PM PDT 0 recs
Small sample size alert...
Second Half ERA:
Sanchez: 7.47
Correia: 6.28
Zito: 4.59
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on
Sep 26, 2008 12:47 PM PDT
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Wait, I missed the Matt Cain trade proposal. I thought all posts were required to have one…
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
by delorean on Sep 23, 2008 4:34 PM PDT 0 recs
Matt Cain for Gary Sheffield!
And we put him back at 3rd base. That’s plugging a hole, right there.
Catcher are base running. Hitters are offense.
by thehavenot on
Sep 23, 2008 5:33 PM PDT
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Fun to watch opposing managers
as we bring in a lefty to replace a righty after only 2 innings, then switch back to a righty after 2 more.
But this is susceptible to failure on multiple levels. Howie points one out above. Another is: what do you do if Correia gets shelled in the first? Depend on Zito to go 4 instead of 2? Sketchy at best.
And carrying extra pitchers to do this cuts in to your bench, which you’re presumably using more liberally throughout each game.
Presumably, the authors posit having a manager capable of juggling all this, which is another level on which this proposal fails for the Gigantes.
Then again, it might be the only way to get Schierholtz some ABs next year…
Hector Sanchez: really getting tired of playing baseball in foreign countries...
by tedfordfan on Sep 23, 2008 4:58 PM PDT 0 recs
how can anyone be a tedford fan
recruiting aside?
Rafael Rodriguez: More tools than Home Depot.
by BrianBokake on
Sep 23, 2008 5:42 PM PDT
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Because some of us still remember Holmoe.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
Sep 23, 2008 6:00 PM PDT
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Plus infinity.
Hector Sanchez: really getting tired of playing baseball in foreign countries...
by tedfordfan on
Sep 24, 2008 1:52 PM PDT
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You know, after his second-to-last season Holmoe tried to resign and the AD wouldn’t let him.
A one-win season changed that situation right quick.
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
by groug on
Sep 24, 2008 2:04 PM PDT
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Post-Sept 11 makeup game with Rutgers FTW! (The only win)
Holmoe was a nice guy. A terrible, terrible head coach, but hey, a nice guy!
And Tedford made Kyle Boller good. Kyle Boller!
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on
Sep 26, 2008 12:51 PM PDT
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extra bench player from where?
6 relievers instead of 7 is always possible.
This method doesn’t improve that possibility any way I can see.
I guess they worked through what crappy hitters are left on your bench when you have used pinch hitters 3 times by the 6th inning when it’s Corr/Zit/Valdez.
adopter/sponsor of "Go, Antoan" Richardson
by foothillsfan on Sep 23, 2008 5:31 PM PDT 0 recs
I like the outside of the box thinking
No, not the outside of the box thinking (the fake-poster).
But, yeah, there are awkward things about it that have already been pointed out.
Catcher are base running. Hitters are offense.
by thehavenot on Sep 23, 2008 5:32 PM PDT 0 recs
This...
Is why there’s a box?
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
How is my adopted son almost twice as old as I am? Nevermind...Go Omar! Warm the Bench!
by WalrusMan on
Sep 23, 2008 5:56 PM PDT
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I’ve been waiting to be able to say that in actual real life talk but haven’t gotten it in.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
How is my adopted son almost twice as old as I am? Nevermind...Go Omar! Warm the Bench!
by WalrusMan on
Sep 23, 2008 5:56 PM PDT
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whatever happened...
to Noah Lowry being a starter?
by MeTaLLiCs0naTaS on Sep 23, 2008 5:56 PM PDT 0 recs
his arm exploded
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on
Sep 23, 2008 6:09 PM PDT
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No. Seriously
how is Lowry doing in Instrux? and Valdez? and Franny? Any word?
by wilriv21 on
Sep 24, 2008 10:29 AM PDT
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Lowry – more medical opinions.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on
Sep 26, 2008 12:51 PM PDT
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Seems like you’d risk running out of players if the game went into extra innings.
by Dan from NM on Sep 23, 2008 10:22 PM PDT 0 recs
Well, you couldn’t let relievers come in to face just 1 or 2 batters. They’d need to go an inning at least, which is reasonable if you manage them well day to day. The problem is managers can’t sacrifice one game for the better good of the season, which would be required sometimes in this plan.
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on
Sep 23, 2008 11:21 PM PDT
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Thanks for the link
I’d like to point out that the major misgivings with this approach will disappear in September when you can greatly expand the roster.
Elsewhere in The Book, it is noted that starting pitchers take a hit each time they go through the order, while a pitcher (even a bad one) gets a boost by only pitching one or two innings.
Do you guys see a downside in terms of implementing this strategy in September for a team that is already out of the race?
by tangotiger on Sep 24, 2008 6:54 AM PDT 0 recs
The major issue, of course, is that no
manager will risk his job to try it. In general, it’s counter to the “cult of the starting pitcher”. Maybe if all W/L stats for pitchers were abolished it might go over better.
It might get more traction, if instead of mandating it like a rotation you just pinch hit ~3x times game on average. That way, if you were way ahead you could leave a pitcher in. Also you might not want to burn 2 guys to bat a slap hitter with no one on and the bases empty.
This way, you are following the same principle (minimizing pitcher PAs) but doing it with the illusion of in-game strategy (maximizing the effect of the PHs).
For some reason, I have it in my head that if you had flexible guys on defense (utlility people) it would be better… but can’t figure out why I think that.
Of course, it’s much harder to calculate the effect of the above strategy (maybe some times like (Avg increase in PHs) X (Avg PH leverage)
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on
Sep 24, 2008 9:02 AM PDT
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Think about this:
What you are advocating is essentially what is already (theoretically) done. The starting pitcher stays in until the effectiveness of his arm is outweighed by the ineffectiveness of his bat and/or the effectiveness of his arm drops below the expected effectiveness of available relief. All you are doing with your plan is changing the expectation. Currently, starting pitchers are expected to go 6+ innings. In your plan, the “crappier” starters would only be expected to go ~ 3 innings, not 6.
But if a guy is pitching really well, you would be reluctant to pull him, even in a situation where the team could really benefit from a pinch hitter. Who is going to PH for Lincecum in the 3rd w/ bases loaded and 2 out ? The same could be said for Zito on one of his “good” days. Hell, some games – like last night, you do want to pull Lincecum or Cain in the 3rd. It (should be) based on performance relative to PH opportunity. Also, even if the starting pitcher is only pitching o-k, unless a situation comes up where there is a clear advantage to using a PH, it would not make sense to pull him. Say he comes up with 2 out and no one on… Not likely that the increased value of a PH in that circumstance is going to outweigh the expected value of his pitching the next inning or two.
So, in your strategy – what you do is you leave Zito in until a situation comes up that you would rather have a PH than Zito. If he’s pitching poorly, then that may be in the 2nd or 3rd inning – but if he is cruising (which Zito can do on occasion) then you may be reluctant to yank him for a PH even if the situation would benefit from it, as the perceived value of his pitching for an additional inning or two (vs. available relief) is higher (especially if no obvious PH situation comes up). That is exactly how games are supposed to be managed under the current “system.”
So I fail to see how this strategy is substantially different from what is currently in place. All you are really doing is saying to the manager “It’s okay to pull the starter in the 3rd if a PH opportunity comes up and/or the starter is struggling” – But that is something that the manager should already know, and is something you see done on (rare) occasion. Most often you see this in playoff or other must-win games, where even a quality starter who is pitching well will be yanked for a PH early in the game.
Really what you need to suggest is not that the 4/5 starters should be switched from an expectation of 6+ innings to an expectation of 3 innings, but a modification of what I stated above: The starting pitcher should stay in until the effectiveness of his arm is outweighed by the ineffectiveness of his bat and/or the effectiveness of his arm drops below the expected effectiveness of available relief, relative to the game situation.
And that is exactly how games are (theoretically) managed today. Certainly some (most?) managers miss this and try to eek as many innings (pitches) out of their starters as possible – but that is the fault of the manager not understanding what should be done, not a product of the system. Those same managers will screw up any system.
I’m not sure that I made my point very clearly. I am struggling to express this.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on
Sep 24, 2008 9:58 AM PDT
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??????????
The starting pitcher should stay in until the effectiveness of his arm is outweighed by the ineffectiveness of his bat and/or the effectiveness of his arm drops below the expected effectiveness of available relief, relative to the game situation.
But that’s NOT what today’s managers do. The numbers Tom and others cite express this pretty clearly. Look at the increase in run creation. Six to seven additional wins. Doesn’t that demonstrate that this is NOT how managers are managing?
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
by delorean on
Sep 24, 2008 12:21 PM PDT
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Well yes -
That is not what today’s managers do because the managers are idiots.
However, that is what the theoretical system is. That is what they kinda pretend to do, the problem is they struggle with identifying when the starters effectiveness is eclipsed by the need in a PH situation as well as identifying when a starters effectiveness is lower than that of available relief help.
Today’s managers are so poorly carrying out the “strategy” as to render it nearly unrecognizable.
“Today’s approach” to pitcher management fundamentally is not “starter goes 6 innings, relievers combine for 3.” It is “starter goes until he struggles or I need to pinch hit for him” Which is essentially what I described above (and is described by the OP).
And that is a perfectly good strategy. The problem isn’t in the fundamental strategy, it’s the managers who are too clueless to enact it. They end up enacting something similar to the former because they lack the ability or will to execute the latter correctly.
The strategy doesn’t need to be changed – just who is executing it.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on
Sep 24, 2008 12:48 PM PDT
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I'm not much into the DH,
but I would way way way way way rather see that in the NL than a mess like this.
Fairley odd parent to Wendell
by WTF on Sep 24, 2008 11:19 AM PDT 0 recs
wait...
are lou guys giving up on matt palmer already? lol
by bigpanda48 on Sep 24, 2008 4:40 PM PDT 0 recs
Lou Grant thinks he's old for the level
But Lou Reed thinks he’s outta sight
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
by delorean on
Sep 24, 2008 4:50 PM PDT
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I'm waiting to hear from Lou Dobbs
Shut up, I just GS’d “Lou” and he was the first hit.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
Sep 24, 2008 5:05 PM PDT
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Lou Rawls thinks we’ll never find another love like Matt’s.
by Evan on
Sep 24, 2008 6:01 PM PDT
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I bet Lou Gehrig could hit him
I see the future, and it is Pablo
by CB30 on
Sep 27, 2008 5:08 PM PDT
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Lou Diamond Phillips
is … uh… related to JR Phillips?
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on Sep 24, 2008 10:04 PM PDT 0 recs
LOL Diamond Phillips, one of my all time favorite names. for no reason
I see the future, and it is Pablo
by CB30 on
Sep 27, 2008 5:09 PM PDT
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After reading title to this fanpost thought it was a way to unload Zito
by wilriv21 on Sep 26, 2008 3:44 PM PDT 0 recs



















