Pablo Sandoval and Inflation
by Grant on Sep 22, 2008 11:38 AM PDT
107 comments
A little less than a year ago, I attempted to grade the Giants’ organizational depth. Other than the standard, unfair dismissal of Randy Winn, it doesn’t look too ridiculous in retrospect. With the draft and minor league happenings of 2008, though, it’s worth an update. Well, maybe "worth" is a relative term. How about, "it’s not completely ridiculous to revisit the subject when the season is winding down and I’m out of ideas"? Good. Glad we can agree on something.
Catcher
Majors: B+ (Molina, Sandoval)
High minors: C- (Witter, Holm, Notgardo)
Low minors: A- (Posey, Posey, Posey)
Molina and Sandoval are a pretty good combo, and though Sandoval is still a bit of a catching project, he’s better than I thought he was going to be. The high minors have the standard backup fare, but Witter could end up being one o’ them .220/.340/.420 backup catchers, which would be a pretty sweet thing to have.
If there were anyone halfway interesting other than Posey above rookie ball, the low minors would get a solid "A." It's worth noting, though, that the Hector Sanchez bandwagon gives out complimentary bags of honey-roasted peanuts.
First Base
Majors: B (Ishikawa, Sandoval)
High minors: C (Bowker, McClain, Harper)
Low minors: B (Villalona, Neal)
Sandoval makes a huge difference at three positions, though this is probably the most important one for next season. Between him and Ishikawa, the Giants will enter 2009 with reasonable options for first – something that was unthinkable during last year’s ranking. Bowker’s more of an outfielder, but he’ll still be one of the first options for the Giants if there are injuries or poor production at first next year. I’m giving him benefit of the doubt because I still love his swing, so the high minors is saved from a failing grade. Actually, considering that there were two .900-OPS hitters other than Ishikawa, that "C" might be too conservative, age be damned.
The low minors are almost exclusively Villalona territory, but Thomas Neal is also an interesting guy to follow.
Second Base
Majors: C? (Velez, Frandsen)
High minors: C? (Denker, maybe Velez, Rosario)
Low minors: B (Noonan)
There’s really no way to separate the majors from the high minors here, so I’ll just give a big, nebulous "C" to Kevin Frandsen, Eugenio Velez, and Travis Denker. One of them will be worth the grade in the majors, but I’m just not sure which one. Velez has looked better in the second half of the season, and I’m still a believer that Frandsen can be a Mark (Grudzielanek/Loretta/DeRosa) type of second baseman.
Olmo Rosario is older, and he supposedly has a cleat for a glove, but a middle infielder who can slug above .450 in Connecticut is a middle infielder worth watching. Nick Noonan is the only player of note in the low minors, depending on your affinity for Matt Downs, but Noonan’s a pretty good prospect.
Shortstop
Majors: C- (Burriss, Ochoa)
High minors: F (Bocock?)
Low minors: B- (Crawford, Adrianza)
Maybe the "C-" is a little harsh, but I’m just not sure about Emmanuel Burriss in the short-term. In the long-term, I can see him evolving into this kind of hitter. Like Vizquel, though, I don’t think it will happen until his mid-20s.
The high minors are a wasteland, but the low minors have a couple of interesting players in Brandon Crawford and Ehire Adrianza. I don’t know much about Brooks Lindsley, but he held his own at Salem-Keizer as a 21-year-old, so he shouldn’t be left out of the discussion.
Third base
Majors: C- (Only if Sandoval can stick, though)
High minors: D (Rohlinger, and Rohlinger alone)
Low minors: B (Gillaspie, though there’s always a chance Villalona could return)
Sandoval changes the grades for three positions, but he’ll only be able to help one or two, so I’ll knock the majors grade down quite a bit. He looked fine there, but I doubt the Giants will just leave the spot open for him in the offseason.
Rohlinger had a decent year in AA, but that’s the extent of the good news in the high minors. Gillaspie’s first major league hit showed off a beautiful swing, and he might not qualify at the low minors category for very long.
Tomorrow: Outfield and pitchers.
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I call grade inflation
You can’t split Pablito over 3 positions and upgrade them all.
I would drop Catcher to B-, 1B to C-, 3B I would leave the same, with the assumption that (barring roster moves) Sandoval gets much of the PAs there in 2009.
I don’t see how you can give anything better than ’D’s to SS/2B. There are 29 other teams in the Majors, how many of them would you swap our “major league” SSs and 2Bs for, straight up?
Oh, in my scale, “C” would be average major league depth.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on Sep 22, 2008 12:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Grade inflation?
So you’re saying the Giants are the Harvard of major league teams? OH, SNAP!
No, my Crazy Crab bobblehead is not for sale.
by Kitspool on Sep 22, 2008 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you’re saying the Giants are theHarvardStanford of major league teams? OH, SNAP!
OH SNAP!
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Sep 22, 2008 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can’t split Pablito over 3 positions and upgrade them all.
Yes I can. Look, I just did it. Even referenced it in the title. He could probably fill in at short, too, so I could probably take that “minus” off of that grade.
There are 29 other teams in the Majors, how many of them would you swap our "major league" SSs and 2Bs for, straight up?
Let’s see…for second base, Dodgers (assuming Kent retires), Nationals, Colorado, Houston (Kaz be damned), Mets, Royals, Oakland, Toronto…your mileage may vary on a couple of those, so I probably could have used a D on that. Point taken.
SS is a little better. I wouldn’t trade Manny in the short-term with San Diego, Cincinnatt, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Seattle, Toronto, Oakland, Washington (Guzmansurgance aside), or Minnesota, and, trust me, I’m not a wild-eyed Manny fan for the short-term. It’s just that those teams all have some wicked problems at short. Also, my grade includes a little bit of Manny’s long-term potential. I’ll stick by my C-.
by Grant on Sep 22, 2008 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Velez is just awful, and Fransden may never be back.
However, Denker is better than I thought … but since you put him in “high minors”, we have to stick with D here.
Ochoa is roster filler…. and Burriss has looked adequate over 250+ PAs. OBP > SLG, and total lack of miL numbers scares me though. I think there is a very high chance of him Bococking it up next year…
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on Sep 22, 2008 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Explain:
Velez being Awful.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Sep 22, 2008 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Explanation:
Velez: 77 OPS+ this year, 81 OPS+ for career. Plus there’s the iron glove part of him.
Basically he’s someone that’s made quite a career out of one great year when he was old for the league. he hit .315/.369/.557/.926 when the league hit .254/.331/.376/.707. He was 24 when the average player was 21.8 in the league.
The highest I see him reaching in his career is a line similar to .270/.310/.400. OK BA, but meher OBP and meh SLG. A person who hits like that needs a better glove than Velez has. Compared to this year, that line would be about 30 points below average for 2B.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
How is my adopted son almost twice as old as I am? Nevermind...Go Omar! Warm the Bench!
by WalrusMan on Sep 22, 2008 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I suppose
I find it difficult to peg a guy as “awful” when he is in the middle of a .302/.345/.434 (140 PA’s) stretch following his call-up.
If a guy’s career MiL numbers prove that he’s not gonna be great, then why bother even calling him up at all?
Velez has been playing extremely well since his call up. I’m not sure what else he is supposed to do to make a statement… He’s had up and down years in the MiL, and has jumped around all over the damn place. He’s in the ML now and playing extremely well. He deserves to be in the conversation until he regresses to some supposed mean.
Is he a great player? No. But he’s certainly not awful.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Sep 22, 2008 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess..
I just don’t see him keeping that batting average at .300 or so, which means his OBP will be lower as well. To me there’s just no way to sustain what he’s doing. I’m not basing it on BABIP or anything (I wouldn’t know how to find that) but just at how he’s done in the past. And in the past, he hasn’t really been a .300 hitter. True his minor league BA is around .297 I think, but all of the higher BA has come when he’s been an older player to the league.
And that still says nothing about his defense, which is atrocious.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
How is my adopted son almost twice as old as I am? Nevermind...Go Omar! Warm the Bench!
by WalrusMan on Sep 22, 2008 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Um
BA is stupid. The difference between .270 and the “magic” .300 isn’t really that big.
by bondslegend on Sep 22, 2008 8:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK..
Put it in the context of a .310 OBP vs a .340 OBP. Sound better? Basically just .270/.300 BA plus the .040 of iso on base percentage.
I’m not really saying that BA is the way to go, but he doesn’t look like a high walk guy, so to get a good OBP he needs the BA.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
How is my adopted son almost twice as old as I am? Nevermind...Go Omar! Warm the Bench!
by WalrusMan on Sep 22, 2008 8:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Platooning
The Giants have done a good job this season of making players appear better than they actually are by essentially platooning them. In particular, Bowker, Ishikawa, Velez and even Sandoval are far better against right-handed pitching than against southpaws.
by sharksrog on Sep 23, 2008 2:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
since call p
Bingo! His before and after splits have me encouraged and hopeful that he’s learned something and taking a more serious approach at the plate.
He added 46 points of OPS+ in the 2nd half.
Zooperstars, they quack me up!
by Goofus on Sep 23, 2008 6:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just looked at Dial's
OPD ranking. I give no credit for hot streaks however current they may be.
I will happily eat my words (no baseballs, though) if he hits .300 with a .340 OBP next year.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on Sep 22, 2008 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, he is clearly not going to do that
But It’s not insane to think he his .280 w/ a .320 OBP next year.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Sep 22, 2008 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A .320 OBP with horrible defense? That doesn’t sound too good.
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Sep 22, 2008 8:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Favorite position player
When I saw Eugenio Velez play in spring training around the middle of March this season, he immediately became my favorite Giants position player (although he has since been replaced by first Burriss and then Sandoval).
But even when he was my favorite player, I maintained that he didn’t have a position and wouldn’t hit well enough to be much more than a utility player. I would say there is SOME hope for him against right-handers, and he will is said to be willing to work hard on his defense both in the Instructional League this fall and in winter league ball.
But what is it about a guy with a .227 career minor league average against southpaws that makes us believe he will hit them?
by sharksrog on Sep 23, 2008 2:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
he immediately became my favorite Giants position player (although he has since been replaced by first Burriss and then Sandoval
“You’re my favorite player! Wait, no you’re my favorite player…ok, I’m serious this time; you’re my favorite player!”
You’ve got the loyalty of a hooker. :-P
Zooperstars, they quack me up!
by Goofus on Sep 23, 2008 6:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
don’t we all?
Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus.
by oldjacket on Sep 23, 2008 7:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Especially when it comes to pitchers.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on Sep 23, 2008 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also
Hot streaks current or not, are important when they comprise a significant percentage of a players ML career.
Velez has 260 ML Ab’s, 50% of which you would categorize as a “hot streak”.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Sep 22, 2008 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
50% of a small sample size equals a REALLY small sample size.
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
by delorean on Sep 22, 2008 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Alright, here's what I've got
I took Ev’s 171 AB’s in Fresno this year and calculated their MLE’s here. I then added that all up with his 250 San Francisco AB’s and came up with this line:
.264/.309/.492, .800 OPS
A little low on the OBP, but still not “awful” as previously described. I think Velez has a chance to be a useful player, and what he is doing right now reinforces that.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Sep 22, 2008 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
For the record: I don’t think he’s awful. I don’t think he’s ever going to be good either.
171 ABs is too small a sample from which to make any meaningful extrapolation, and this current hot streak, well, it’s been nice to watch, but he will almost certainly regress.
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
by delorean on Sep 22, 2008 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well yeah, duh - he will regress
And so will Sandoval. Neither of them are this good. Neither of them are likely awful, either.
I think it’s just interesting how a guy like Sandoval who has an OPS of .787 in 1700 MiL AB’s – comes to the ML and rakes for 120 AB’s and people proclaim that he has been doing it all along and that this is his expected talent level.
But then a guy like Velez has a .792 OPS in 1650 MiL AB’s, comes up and struggles a little – goes down, figures something out (and obliterates Fresno while down there) and then comes back up and performs at a Sandovolian level – and everyone just says “eh yeah he will regress, he’s garbage”.
People’s perceptions are an interesting thing, and they certainly don’t always agree with the #’s.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Sep 22, 2008 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The difference of course, is age. And the fact that Sandoval has shown some fielding aptitude at 3 different positions.
Velez is bad defensively. That has to be factored into his worth.
by Lars The Wanderer on Sep 22, 2008 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
“Bad” is such a negative word. Can’t we just call his defense “shitty”?
Zooperstars, they quack me up!
by Goofus on Sep 23, 2008 6:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That is also an acceptable (and apt!) adjective. I was going more for a PG-13 description.
by Lars The Wanderer on Sep 23, 2008 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not that I disagree, but there is an age difference between Pablo and Velez.
by Natto on Sep 22, 2008 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Age is a factor
But it doesn’t necessarily Damn Velez.
He’s older, and he will hit his decline sooner. That’s the only real problem w/ being 26 vs. being 21. Less valuable over the long haul. In some cases, the older player may be closer to his peak.
However, there are many players who “figure it out” at a later time – besides, Sandoval and Velez have about the same # of professional AB’s.
So while chronologically they are 5 years apart, in “development age” they are pretty similar.
Sandoval has a higher upside because he is so young, but I don’t think Velez is damned because he is 26.
It’s not as if he is 36.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Sep 22, 2008 5:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Never mind.
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
by delorean on Sep 22, 2008 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with Delorean.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Sep 22, 2008 5:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, it's Felizian
.492 SLG???? OK, I agree if he slugs .492, he’s a decent player. I suspect he’ll slug 100 points less than that.
As for hot streaks – it’s not that I am ignoring it, I was just using his stats for the year.
Maybe we should have a 2009 Zips over-under next year when they come out.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on Sep 23, 2008 8:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just a guess on my part
Just a guess on my part, but if 50% of Eugenio’s major league career has been a “hot streak,” does that mean 50% of that career has been a “cold streak?”
And if a guy is hitting as badly as Eugenio even WITH 50% of his career having been a hot streak, doesn’t that make things even worse? I mean, if we felt 90% of his career had been an uncharacteristic COLD streak, perhaps we could live with his numbers.
All in all, there appears to be little reason to “worry” that Eugenio’s numbers will get too high (or even TO high) either offensively or defensively. He did lead the majors in stolen bases though — during spring training.
by sharksrog on Sep 23, 2008 2:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Julio Izturis
he was in the DSL this year. He just turned 19 a month ago. He’s another interesting guy to keep an eye on at 2b. In 47 games, he hit .284/.471/.355. He was also 24/29 on SB attempts. Last year, he stole 36 in the DSL.
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Sep 22, 2008 12:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Versatile Sandoval affords Giants some options
The rapid emergence of Pablito Sandoval affords Sabean some options this winter. While Sabean has said he would like to find one position for Pablito to play in 2009 it most likely will be a corner infielder. Bengie Molina is under contract for the 2009 season and still performing well and Gerald Posey is 300 minor league games away from seeing Mays Field.
SF needs to find starters for ALL the infield positions in 2009. Sandoval will be either the starting 3b or 1b in 2009. Here is hoping the kids continue to improve on their 2008 seasons. Have a special place in my heart for Kevin Frandsen and hope he is given the opportunity to win a chance to start at 2b.
Do not like the huge chasm of talent between ML and lower minors. Believe Barr has begun to rectify this concern with the last two drafts.
Keep an eye on Andrianza and Schoop.
by wilriv21 on Sep 22, 2008 12:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Barr will address his concerns with the last two drafts
right after getting rid of the Dept. of Education.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Sep 22, 2008 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is he on the ballot in Georgia? How many states all together? Heard Nader is on the ballot in 45 states.
by wilriv21 on Sep 22, 2008 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
As of 2004, they were on the ballot in 48 states and DC.
We’re slightly off-topic here, eh!?
What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC
by jcb9 on Sep 22, 2008 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
“They” being the Libertarian Party, to clarify.
What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC
by jcb9 on Sep 22, 2008 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that’d be a start.
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Sep 22, 2008 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Third base worries me
I have the feeling Sabes will be signing either Joe Crede or Hank Blalock to a long-term contract this offseason. Any other good FA options at 3rd that aren’t coming to mind?
No, my Crazy Crab bobblehead is not for sale.
by Kitspool on Sep 22, 2008 12:23 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I’m pretty sure he’s gonna sign an OF and make the poor sap play 3rd.
Castillo got the DFA. Guestimate for Castillo DFA to come before the 2009 season = 2.
by kennv on Sep 22, 2008 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So where do you have Sandoval playing? Would prefer SF start Pablito at 3b and then have TI/RHH platoon at 1b – possibly Aurilia?
by wilriv21 on Sep 22, 2008 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In the absence of an FA signing, who would back up Pablito at 3rd? Aurilia? I’m just not sure that’s going to work out over an entire season. Although I suppose anything’s an improvement over Joe Castle for four months.
No, my Crazy Crab bobblehead is not for sale.
by Kitspool on Sep 22, 2008 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can see SF re-signing Aurilia as back-up infielder/bench/role player. If need to replace Sandoval for an extended time Rohlinger probably would be at either AA or AAA, would check on the status of play of Gillaspie or possibly make an in season minor deal to cover 3b.
by wilriv21 on Sep 22, 2008 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Conor at 3rd
for 2009! Okay I have no serious input, but I still am not sold on Sandoval at 3rd. Call is pessimism, but I just don’t see it. I think Sabes will probably sign Crede this off season (ugh) and resign Aurillia to back up the corners. Long live Gillaspie!
Bill Mueller? I expect at least A-Rod type numbers from my son, Conor Gillaspie
by Gamer101 on Sep 22, 2008 12:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I fail at pressing the reply button
Bill Mueller? I expect at least A-Rod type numbers from my son, Conor Gillaspie
by Gamer101 on Sep 22, 2008 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m hoping that the recent news that Crede’s back is so bad he’s getting epidurals for it will scare Sabean off.
What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC
by jcb9 on Sep 22, 2008 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If
If the Giants have BOTH Conor Gillaspie and Pablo Sandoval to play third base next season, whom will they have to play there against right-handers?
by sharksrog on Sep 23, 2008 2:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I just reached Zen.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Sep 23, 2008 3:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Burriss
is highly underrated here, I think. His numbers this year are 283/357/329, good for an OPS+ of 85. Not great, but not awful for a shortstop, and roughly comparable to Vizquel in his prime – which suggests that in time he’ll be a better hitter than Omar was. Even if he’s not, I’m not complaining about a guy with a 350+ obp… we don’t have a lot of those.
"he walked 18; new league record! Struck out 18, another new league record! He also hit the sportswriter, the PA announcer, the bull mascot twice..."
by i did my job on Sep 22, 2008 1:05 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
When I first saw this
When I first saw this I thought it said Emmanuel was OVERrated here. I didn’t think that was the case. But overall I don’t think he’s underrated here, either.
Overall, I have been impressed with how most here have been pleasantly surprised with Manny’s performance this season — but realize he still may not be ready and also that he may not even be as good as he has shown.
by sharksrog on Sep 23, 2008 2:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My Grades
If a grade of ‘C’ is average production for that position.
C : B
1B : C
2B : C+
SS : C
3B : D+
I’ve got Pablo primarily playing between C/1B. Molina and Sandoval at catcher should play above average offensively.
I believe in Denker at 2B for some reason and I think he might be able to do an impression of a league average 2B, offensively at least, for a couple of years. Someone made the comp of Todd Walker for Denker once and I love that comparison.
The Giants haven’t had league average production from 1B in so long that I feel that grading them a C, even with Pablo and TI playing the position, could be an overgrade. I call this the Dan Ortmeier Theory. A young player holds his own in a brief period of time (TI in this case) but crashes and burns the next year.
Burriss might be able to swing league average at SS. Though like 1B, that could be an overgrade.
I think 3B is our biggest problem in the infield. I don’t think Pablo will play the position much in ’09 and the in-house options to fill the position are limited.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Sep 22, 2008 1:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I forgot to say, that my grades are all for the upper-minors and major league depth. I didn’t consider the low-minors because they are so far away right now.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Sep 22, 2008 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dan Ortmeier Theory?
I thought that phenomenon was known as Lance Niekro Syndrome.
Scott McClain: Great story, no place on the 2009 Giants.
by EliminateMe on Sep 22, 2008 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s like Satan, it’s known by many names. None of them good.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on Sep 22, 2008 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good Grief a "C" for Sabean Era Giants at first? Wouldn’t that require the universe to fold upon itself first?
I pretty much agree with your grades though. I am little more bearish on 1st- SS and say a C- for now. Which I view as an upgrade in production in those spots over 2007. And unlike the 2007 collection this one could prove up into the high C+ to bottom of the "B" range next season. I am not holding my breathe for it but stranger things happen.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
by daveinexile on Sep 24, 2008 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the C- at SS is fair. I can’t see Burriss or Ochoa developing into anything other than filler.
Also, Sandoval is not going to stick at 3B. He is young and he can handle the position now, but the boy isn’t going to Jenny Craig anytime soon and his girth isn’t going to play well there.
by Lars The Wanderer on Sep 22, 2008 1:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
SF could use a 3b in 2009
That is the great thing about Pablito’s versatility. He only needs to start at 3b until the calvary arrives – Dizzy, Big V etc. By then his bat will find him a position at either C or 1b.
by wilriv21 on Sep 22, 2008 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree. I don’t think putting Pablo at 3B for 2009 with the explicit intention of moving him down the line will harm his development.
by rotorueter on Sep 22, 2008 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
At bats
If Pablo keeps hitting as he has (which he won’t, since he’s going to cool down eventually), the thing will be to find him at bats, taking advantage of his versatility. But he’s going to have to greatly improve against southpaws in order to get consistent at bats against them long-term.
by sharksrog on Sep 23, 2008 2:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ivan and Manny
Ivan appears to be filler — although a very smooth filler with the glove. Emmanuel gave indications he could well be more. I have to admit I was more impressed with Manny’s improvement against southpaws than any hitter in memory.
I have been and continue to be worried about Manny’s lack of pop, feeling that eventually outfielders will choke him off. But his K/BB numbers have been pretty decent in the minors and actually IMPROVED in the majors. Before he got hurt, Manny was walking like CRAZY.
And he hit a homer left-handed, tying him with Duane Kuiper. I though there might be a chance that he would NEVER catch Duane from the left side — unless he went inside-the-park.
by sharksrog on Sep 23, 2008 2:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t get how Burris and Ochoa get a C-, and Velez and Frandsen get a C???
I see the future, and it is Pablo
by CB30 on Sep 22, 2008 1:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Because Ochoa sucks?
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Sep 22, 2008 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Burris makes up for his suck, I’d give both a C
I see the future, and it is Pablo
by CB30 on Sep 22, 2008 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
both ss and 2b that is
I see the future, and it is Pablo
by CB30 on Sep 22, 2008 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, Offensively
Velez + Frandsen look like Bonds and Mays compared to Nochoa and Burriss.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Sep 22, 2008 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Burriss is actually fairly overrated by some fans.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Sep 22, 2008 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He good defensively, which puts him way over Velez, they are probably even bats
I see the future, and it is Pablo
by CB30 on Sep 22, 2008 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Velez and Burriss even bats?
Are you kidding me?
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Sep 22, 2008 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Burris is probably better, but only seperated by like 20 batting average points. And I think Velez has more gap power.
I see the future, and it is Pablo
by CB30 on Sep 22, 2008 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you high?
Burriss has some upside, etc – but I think even the Velez detractors would admit that Velez has a WAY better bat.
Career MiL .792 OPS vs. Career .680 OPS. Not even close.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Sep 22, 2008 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like Burris as the better defender and better contact hitter. I think Velez is faster and has more power. Its just my opinion.
I see the future, and it is Pablo
by CB30 on Sep 22, 2008 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What’s Velez’s minor league line in seasons when he was not comically old for his level?
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
by groug on Sep 22, 2008 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
.310/.372/.509
Unless you consider 26 to be “comically old” for AAA.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Sep 22, 2008 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And yes, that was slightly cherry picked.
in response to a tongue and cheek question.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Sep 22, 2008 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
26 is kinda of old for AAA.
by Lars The Wanderer on Sep 22, 2008 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah yeah
He was good in 170 ABs in Fresno this year. Fine. But you posted his career .792 OPS in the minor leagues as a point in his favor, when he’s only been better than that twice: This year, and the year he played in Augusta as a 24-year-old.
I’ll put it like this: His line in years when he wasn’t a 24-year old in Low A-ball was .287/.330/.410, or an OPS of .740. That’s still a difference between him and Burriss, but I would argue that looking at their stats (here’s Burriss and here’s Velez), Burriss has not performed worse than Velez at any comparable age, considering that in his age 21 and 22 seasons, Velez was in Rookie ball for almost the entire time. Half of the difference between their minor league OPSes disappears when you remove the year that Velez was beating up on kids not nearly as physically mature as he was, and he was pretty old in every other season too.
So I guess I don’t see how those minor league numbers can be worth all that much.
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
by groug on Sep 22, 2008 5:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’s a good line, even for Fresno which is a hitter’s paradise.
I count myself as the biggest Burriss skeptic on this site, but I wouldn’t call the belief that he and Velez are about equal offensively as “crazy” or “high.”
I don’t think it’s ridiculous to assert that they are equal offensive players at this point. I don’t think Velez’s minor league track record tells us much about him as a player, and Burriss doesn’t have much of a minor league track record at all. Burriss has outhit Velez in the majors, so I don’t think it is anywhere near as crazy a statement as you believe.
Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus.
by oldjacket on Sep 22, 2008 6:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
huh?
Burriss has outhit Velez in the majors"
And OPS+ of 77 vs 83
And that includes Velez’s absolutely horrible start to the season.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Sep 22, 2008 9:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
double huh?
Burriss OPS+ of 83 is better than Velez’s 77. In almost the same number of PAs. - Baseball reference
Fangraphs has Burriss’s RC/27 at 4.19. Velez at 3.26. But that is probably due (at least in part) to some unlucky GDP on Velez part.
Castillo got the DFA. Guestimate for Castillo DFA to come before the 2009 season = 2.
by kennv on Sep 22, 2008 9:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Burriss has the higher OPS+ and about 60 points of OBP on Velez. So, yes, Buriss has outhit Velez.
Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus.
by oldjacket on Sep 23, 2008 7:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
they are not the same age, not even close
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on Sep 23, 2008 8:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess
I guess this is where I got the overrated thing for Manny. I would say we have posters here who overrate the guy and posters who underrate him. But overall, I think the board has a pretty decent handle on a guy who could wind up being anywhere from a utility guy to a solid contributor.
by sharksrog on Sep 23, 2008 2:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have the damndest time telling when people are being serious on this site.
I think it would be hyperbole to say even little leaguers could make Velez and Frandsen look like Mays and Bonds. The fact is that we have no idea how any of our MI compare to major league talent because they played Vizquel/Bocock/Castle/Durham almost of the year. Barring any crazy trades, the whole damn IF (outside of Sandoval if he plays there) is going to be a bermuda triangle in ’09 too.
Can we hand out incompletes?
by RotoHead on Sep 22, 2008 3:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Third Base
I don’t know why leaving Pablo at 3b scares so many people. Obviously, that isn’t his natural position and the worst of the 3 he plays, but he’s looked good so far in limited action there and seems like he has a clue. The arm isn’t an issue.
The reason I don’t have a problem with it is because his bat will play there over the short run, there aren’t really other good in-house options, and the out-house options, are, well, outhouse options. I really don’t expect to be contenders next year, and I think it is another good opportunity to play young guys to see what they’ve got. Keeping Richie as a backup, etc, is totally fine.
The other remedy would be to trade for someone, if we’re determined to spend money in 2009. The decent candidate for me, would be Melvin Mora. Yes, he makes $8M next year, but that’s it. He has a 2009 option w/ a $1M buyout. That seems reasonable to me. He had a fairly respectable year this season at an advanced age with a bad team, but he’s still got some pop from the right side which wouldn’t be murdered by our yard. not sure if he’s available, but I doubt it would take too much (in terms of top prospects) to pry him loose from Baltimore, though their in-house replacement options are as limited as ours.
An even better candidate to trade for would be Mark Teahen, but it doesn’t seem as is KC wants to trade him. He does kinda strike out a lot, but we’re not talking about cream of the crop here. Perhaps we could get him for Hennessey or Correia?
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Sep 22, 2008 5:09 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Vote McClain!!!
He’s kinda like Melvin Mora. Except he’s way cooler and doesn’t make 8M next year or cost anything. I’m confident he could put up a 740 OPS (like Mora).
Seriously. Can McClain field as well as Pablo at 3rd? Can he hit as well as Bengie next year? Maybe. Probably? Trade Bengie for a nice prospect, move Pablo to C, and let Pablo/Frandsen/Denker fill in at 3rd every once and awhile to keep their bats in the lineup.
Brian Sabean figures that if he buys enough bottles, one of them is bound to have lightning in it.
by jasomack on Sep 22, 2008 6:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i guess i don;t hate this idea
But wouldn’t Aurilia be slightly better than McClain? (I don’t know, I’m asking.)
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
by delorean on Sep 22, 2008 9:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i would guess it’s a wash, and i’d half-heartedly argue that aurilia’s defense at 3rd and 1st evens out mcclain’s better (but hard to quantify, given his circumstances) offense. aurilia makes more money but wins in the facial hair department. mcclain could be the only player to hit 20 hr for that team though. he makes more sense hitting cleanup than bengie.
Lewis
Winn/Schierholtz
Pablo
McClain
Bengie
Rowand
Frandsen/Velez
Burriss
Wow I almost forgot how bad the Giants were.
Brian Sabean figures that if he buys enough bottles, one of them is bound to have lightning in it.
by jasomack on Sep 22, 2008 10:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
McClain won't hit 20 HR.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Sep 23, 2008 7:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
he could. he’s got some pop. Hell, Feliz hit 20.
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Sep 29, 2008 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Compfushion
I haven’t been able to follow the blog lately, so I think I may have missed something. What does the comment “Low minors: B (Gillaspie, though there’s always a chance Villalona could return)” mean?
Why wouldn’t our $2.3mil investment return?
Hitler was a Dodgers fan.
by The Nick on Sep 23, 2008 5:14 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
He plays first base now. Grant is talking about the possibility of him going back to third base at some point.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Sep 23, 2008 5:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you kind sir. Sabean worries me sometimes…
Hitler was a Dodgers fan.
by The Nick on Sep 23, 2008 6:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’s ma’am to you, kind sir.
Adopted brother of the AnVil / GIANTSPACE™ returns!
by SoFa King Mike on Sep 23, 2008 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You are a gentleman and a scholar
what? You’re a woman? Oh, sorry ma’am! I am so sorry. Have a good day.
by bondslegend on Sep 23, 2008 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hector Sanchez gets an A for effort, right?
Hector Sanchez: really getting tired of playing baseball in foreign countries...
by tedfordfan on Sep 23, 2008 10:18 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Michael Ambort
Has DH’ed most of his pro career, so gets overlooked as a prospect. Probably the most balanced swith-hitter in the Giants system though, with serious power potential. He lists as a catcher, but probably will play first base in the future. Should have the power to contend for a starting job within the next two year if he can play average defense.
by StickRat on Sep 23, 2008 6:30 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
he’s overlooked because of injuries, too.
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Sep 29, 2008 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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