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FTW?

Grant_tiny by Grant on

June/July: "Randy Winn has two hits in his past 80 at-bats. His shattered maple bats will one day impale an orphan. No one is going to want his contract."

August: "Randy Winn has 53 hits in his last 52 at-bats. He's hitting .306/.361/.433 with 25 steals in 27 attempts for the season. He plays a great right field, can play a good center, and teams will be lining up to acquire him this offseason."

Has it already been a week since our last Randy Winn trade post? Man, it feels like it's been over eight days, at least. The streakiest player in baseball is usually good for a different opinion piece every time, though. This week's thesis:

Randy Winn should be a sought-after player after the season ends. When the only option for a comparable player on the free-agent market is Bobby Abreu for three or four years and several millions, the $8.25M owed to Randy Winn starts to seem like a bargain. And even though the Giants have Nate Schierholtz waiting for at-bats, the Giants certainly don't have to give Winn away for a clump of mascot fur. They can afford to hold out for a real return.

I think this was the "May thesis", too. The "July thesis" -- you can make a pretty good broth from mascot fur -- might resurface in September.

Teams with at least one less-than-ideal outfield spot:

Rays
Yankees
Wait, I don't have the patience to list them all
Like, basically all of them
Totally

The best part of Winn for a lot of these teams: no commitment. Some of the better free-agent outfield free agents this offseason are Manny Ramirez, Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell, and Adam Dunn. Next year's list includes Jason Bay, Carl Crawford, Matt Holliday, Rick Ankiel, and Vladimir Guerrero. The better long-term solutions seem to reside with the latter bunch.

If I were running a competitive team like, say, the Phillies, and I were faced with a defecting Pat Burrell, a wretched Geoff Jenkins, and a thin system at the upper levels, I would definitely explore a relatively cheap solution like Winn. Trade a prospect for him, get a year of above-average production, and collect a draft pick after the year is up. But what do the Giants consider a clump of mascot fur, and what do they consider a fair return? The Phillies are a good test franchise for a question like this. They have an upper-minors shortstop prospect performing well in the Eastern League (Jason Donald), a guy who is doing well but is a little too old for Rookie ball, and the usual assortment of interesting arms.

Maybe the Phillies laugh if the Giants ask for Donald. Maybe the Giants turn their nose up at anything less than an established prospect, as there's a good chance that Winn will garner a supplemental pick in the 2010 draft. This dance applies to every team that would be interested in Winn, and this leads to our comment starter....

Comment starter: What should the Giants expect back for Winn, and what will they expect?

Alternate comment starter: They're so not even looking to trade Winn, and I'm just belching into the breeze, aren't I?

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ACS: Yes

Or no. They’re not going to move Winn.

I can’t really get excited about the idea either way (unless Nate goes completely insane in the 30-odd ABs he’ll likely get this month).

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Sep 2, 2008 11:46 AM PDT   0 recs

Winn has been a really nice value this year. His home park adjusted wOBA is .356 and he is defending really well in RF. Dewan’s plus/minus has him at + 16. Only Brian Giles (+ 21) and Franklin Guiterez (+ 19) are better in the field.

Winn is making $8M this year and he’s about a 3-win player above replacement, making his market value around $12.6M. He’s +$4.6M value for the Giants.

I think a B-level prospect for Winn is a fair deal for his age and contract. The Giants really like the guy and I’m not sure they’ll be open to moving him, but I think they should test the waters. I think my biggest question is how do other teams value Winn because a lot of his value comes from the fact that he’s a great defender in the corners and I’m not sure that’s a skillset that’s valued too much in the corner OF position.

Teams seem more likely to play defensively challenged mashers in the corner OF spots (Carlos Lee, Manny, Adam Dunn) than more defensive-oriented corner OF players like Randy Winn. Because Winn doesn’t hit 25+ HR’s in the corner, I think his value might be lowered. It’ll be interesting to see if a team contacts the Giants about Winn.

Michael Ambort: Dude hits TATERS.
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Sep 2, 2008 11:58 AM PDT   0 recs

Have you noticed that the wOBA numbers at FirstInning.com are a lot lower than the ones at StatCorner.com (even without the park adjustment)? For example, according to FirstInning, Winn’s wOBA is only .341. What’s up with that?

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Sep 2, 2008 12:25 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I’m not sure why, they both have Winn having the same amount of PA’s. Interesting, I’ll shoot the StatCorner guys an email and ask them if they have any ideas. They’re really nice guys.

I would run Winn’s numbers through my wOBA Spreadsheet if I had access to it.

Michael Ambort: Dude hits TATERS.
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Sep 2, 2008 12:30 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Actually, I just noticed that Winn has 5 fewer PA’s on StatCorner as opposed to First Inning. It has to be some difference in the way that each site is defining the PA.

Michael Ambort: Dude hits TATERS.
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Sep 2, 2008 12:35 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I think the ones at SC are the correct ones, the ones at FI are just too low. Ichiro, who’s hitting .311/.362./384/.746, has a wOBA of .315…

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Sep 2, 2008 12:42 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Here’s the email I got back from Matthew Carruth.

I am aware that FirstInning and SC differ in their wOBA scores but I cannot provide an adequate explanation why. Our 2007 and 2008 totals are slightly off at the moment (working on fixing that) because it’s missing a handful of plate appearances here and there. However, that alone is not enough to cause such differences. Yes, I am using the formula that Tango provided.

Thanks for the e-mail,
Matthew Carruth

Like I figured, it’s partially because of the PA but the scores are pretty different. Interesting. I tried to email FI a few weeks ago but their contact page was busted.

Michael Ambort: Dude hits TATERS.
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Sep 2, 2008 12:46 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

win(n) value
Winn is making $8M this year and he’s about a 3-win player above replacement,

This plus Lewis and Rowand also in the 2-3 Win category, +lincecum and cain (8?) left me wondering how could the rest of the team be so bad as to counter this +14 (not even including Wilson).

Then I remember that a replacement level team is about 65-97, not 81-81.

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN

by zenbitz on Sep 2, 2008 1:55 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

+16

Can somebody explain to me, being at least a little bit specific, how Randy Winn’s defense ranks so high? I’m not a huge stat guy. When I watch Winn, what I see is a smart RF who has good range and a poor arm. Am I missing something?

Here's to Kemp, Loney, LaRoche, Hu, and Kershaw not panning out.

by Woody Wins on Sep 2, 2008 1:56 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Simple

Good range >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Good arm

Alot of people (scouts, fans, interested bystanders) get a “gee whiz” feeling when they see a right fielder with a good arm and assume that the spectacular throws are the same as good defense. In actuality, there are relatively few plays that require a good throw, and even in those cases, accuracy is generally more important than velocity.

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Sep 2, 2008 2:01 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Makes sense

I get that. So then, since range is weighted so much more, can we get into that? How is Winn’s range measured versus other RFs? It can’t be based purely on footspeed, can it? Perhaps there’s a link I could left-click where this could be explained to me.

Here's to Kemp, Loney, LaRoche, Hu, and Kershaw not panning out.

by Woody Wins on Sep 2, 2008 2:08 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Measuring range is pretty much the holy grail of defensive stats

If you could figure out a way to do it accurately, you’ll be a very rich man. There are some system out that that do a passable job, but nothing spectacular. Not that we’d know, what is there is judge them against? You can’t just go by whether the stats match what your eye tell you, because the whole point of using stats it to check where your eyes are mistaken.

And yes, it’s alot more than pure foot speed. Positioning and how quickly and accurately you break on a batted ball are at least as important as how fast you run. Of course, positioning and break are usually things that happen before the player comes into camera view (or even before a person in attendance looks at the fielder), so most people don’t notice it.

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Sep 2, 2008 2:22 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Pure foot speed comment...

Barry Bonds in his older years didn’t have the pure foot speed of his younger years (until you got him up to speed, that is) but his defense didn’t suffer terribly. He was such a good baseball player, such a good studier of the game that he could position himself where the ball was going, by determining the type of hitter at bat, the type of pitch the pitcher was going to throw, and the location of that pitch. If Zito was throwing a slow inside curveball to a righty pull happy hitter he would position himself along the line. If Cain was throwing a hard outside fastball to a well balanced lefty hitter, he would position himself along the line as well.

I don’t think Winn quite does this, but he is a smart outfielder and can position himself fairly well and use ATT Park to his advantage by knowing the types of wall coverings, the angles, etc.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
How is my adopted son almost twice as old as I am? Nevermind...Go Omar! Warm the Bench!

by WalrusMan on Sep 2, 2008 2:26 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

that's the problem

Most of the defensive metrics people site aren’t that precise. A lot of them are measurements involving how many plays a player makes above average.

Let’s say 300 balls are hit to RF in a given year and Winn makes a play on 240 of them. The league average for a RF per 300 balls might be 225, meanign Winn made +15 plays above average. It doesn’t actually factor how Winn made those plays, but assumes elements like speed, breaks, positioning, etc. play a factor in a player making the extra plays. Say a coach is responsible for great positioning, perhaps putting a great range player with that coach would make him a great defender, but currently there is no way to isolate it (once again, by currently I mean to the public).

Others are a bit more complicated, but most of the defensive metrics avaliable to the public are very crude and shouldn’t be taken as absolute truth. Are they better than other public ways of measuring? Certainly. Are they as provable and absolute as the offensive stats out to the public? Not even close.

Defensive stats at this stage are more of an effort than fact. They are going in the right direction and are certainly better than making assumptions off of webgems, etc. but shouldn’t be taken as absolute truth

Do you Wazzel?

by NeifiChicken on Sep 2, 2008 2:26 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Heh

Best headline of the summer.

Disfrute Los Gigantes every day at www.leftymalo.com

by leftymalo on Sep 2, 2008 12:01 PM PDT   0 recs

My guess is that Sabean wants to keep Winn, no other team is going to offer enough to change his mind, and they’ll trade Schierholtz instead.

by Evan on Sep 2, 2008 12:07 PM PDT   0 recs

Sadly, this. Winn is just the kind of player who Sabean always overvalues.

What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC

by jcb9 on Sep 2, 2008 12:13 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I think it’s probably the unlikely combination of the Giants valuing Winn greatly (possibly for the wrong reasons) and the market not valuing him enough.

Michael Ambort: Dude hits TATERS.
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Sep 2, 2008 12:14 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Could Winn be a type A after 2009? And if so, what’s better – whatever we can get for him, or 2 draft picks?

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Sep 2, 2008 12:17 PM PDT   0 recs

Winn is a borderline type A right now.

http://tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com/2008/08/projected-elias-rankings.html

Michael Ambort: Dude hits TATERS.
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Sep 2, 2008 12:18 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

And, I’d say he would be a A after ’09 if he has his usual year.

Michael Ambort: Dude hits TATERS.
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Sep 2, 2008 12:20 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

That’s a good point. On the other hand, he’s also turning 35 next season, so a significant decline in his production wouldn’t be shocking

What man? Which man? Who’s the man? When’s a man a man? What makes a man a man? Am I a man? Yes. Technically I am. - FotC

by jcb9 on Sep 2, 2008 12:25 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Nope, not at all, it could happen but I think Winn’s player-type generally ages well. He might have some drop off but he probably won’t completely crash.

/knocks on wood

Michael Ambort: Dude hits TATERS.
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Sep 2, 2008 12:31 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

And, I’d say he would be a A after ’09 if he has his usual year

That’s bold, but I can’t see Beane signing a guy like Winn while they rebuild.

Zooperstars, they quack me up!

by Goofus on Sep 2, 2008 2:28 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

a Type-A free agent

Do you Wazzel?

by NeifiChicken on Sep 2, 2008 3:31 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm pretty sure Goofus knew what he meant

unless I’m completely overestimating his intelligence.

Farewell, Ray. We'll miss your smile and your sugar. Welcome, Steve Hammond "Eggs". Throw strikes.
comics | cartoons | Nattowear

by Natto on Sep 2, 2008 3:52 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

How can Molina have a higher score than Winn? Winn is a better hitter, better fielder and a better base runner. He also plays more games and is more likely to age well.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Sep 2, 2008 12:48 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

It’s based on position. So, Molina is compared to other catchers and not other positions.

Michael Ambort: Dude hits TATERS.
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Sep 2, 2008 12:48 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah

Winn, compared to other RF’s, is a better hitter, fielder and base runner then Molina is compared to other C’s.

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Sep 2, 2008 12:52 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Not true

Molina is much better, compared to his peers.

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Sep 2, 2008 2:08 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

How so?

..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.

by Cookyman on Sep 3, 2008 10:22 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Does it really matter what type he is?

The smallest arbitration award he could get is 6.6M (80% of his previous year’s salary). Unless he puts together a really stellar 2009, it will be tough for a 36 year old to beat that salary on the FA market.

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Sep 2, 2008 2:06 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

A very good point

Although I could see it happening. Another solid year like this, and he could get a 2 year/14 million dollar deal quite reasonably I feel. Maybe not though

Do you Wazzel?

by NeifiChicken on Sep 2, 2008 2:19 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

If you have a bad enough year...

To deserve 6.6 million from 8.25 million then you may be looking for a contract along the lines of 2/10 or 3/12 instead of 1/6.6. If your production keeps on dropping you won’t make up that extra 3.4-5.4 million if you play a few more years even.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
How is my adopted son almost twice as old as I am? Nevermind...Go Omar! Warm the Bench!

by WalrusMan on Sep 2, 2008 2:28 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

The comment to make Grant like me

Winn to the Rays for Ben Zobrist!

Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.

by groug on Sep 2, 2008 12:18 PM PDT   0 recs

Wait, Grant likes Ben Zobrist? Since WHEN???

by rotorueter on Sep 2, 2008 12:55 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Like I said...

Winn for Efrem Zimalist Jr!

by Lars The Wanderer on Sep 2, 2008 1:12 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Alfred FTW!

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Sep 2, 2008 1:29 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

It's Winn and 1/2 draft picks really

That’s what we’re trading.

I’d ship him to ATL for Lillibridge and Chuck James. Two prospects whose value has plummeted recently but could be very useful for SF. Lillilbridge gives us an athletic SS that could prove to be a nice league average player (which no SS in our system really has the potential of saying) and Chuck James can enter our rotation and possibly rebound into a very nice #3 like he was originally projected to be.

Do you Wazzel?

by NeifiChicken on Sep 2, 2008 12:37 PM PDT   0 recs

I’m not a fan of James. He’s had injury concerns for 2 seasons now. I still like Lillibridge for some reason.

Michael Ambort: Dude hits TATERS.
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Sep 2, 2008 12:40 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

there is definitely a lot of cause of alarm

However, I think it’s a reasonable guy to take a flyer on. We are a team that can afford to take gambles, and if James is able to stay healthy for one year and pitch to his abilities, he could turn into quite a valuable property.

Lillibridge is one of those guys who I’ve always felt was overrated, but now that he’s brought himself into the underrated stratosphere he becomes more attractive to me. ATL has a SS in Escobar in place for years to come so I could definitely see him becoming available.

James carries plenty of risk, but also many potential rewards. This deal would just be rolling the dice in a way. If both rebound and pay off, we make off like huge bandits. If one pays off, we’re still ahead. If neither pay off, well, we gave up a good player and two picks for nothing.

Problem is, it’s hard to make a distinction out of which of those 3 scenarios is most likely

Do you Wazzel?

by NeifiChicken on Sep 2, 2008 12:45 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

He’s a risk, but I just don’t like hearing “torn rotator cuff” and pitchers in the same sentence.

Placed on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to March 21, with a slightly torn rotator cuff in his left shoulder.

Michael Ambort: Dude hits TATERS.
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Sep 2, 2008 12:53 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

i don’t see a mention of any pitchers in that sentence.

by cornball on Sep 2, 2008 12:55 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

lol

Michael Ambort: Dude hits TATERS.
Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Sep 2, 2008 12:56 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I do agree with you, though: rotator cuff injuries are a scary proposition for pitchers. Giving up our most tradeable asset (God, that’s sad to say out loud) for a rotator-cuff injury doesn’t seem like a good idea to me.

by cornball on Sep 2, 2008 12:59 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

he's not the only part

A possible league avg SS isn’t too shabby either, considering our need

Do you Wazzel?

by NeifiChicken on Sep 2, 2008 1:02 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I just think that we could find another pitcher to pair with Lillibridge, that’s all. No, I don’t have any other ideas, but I don’t like the idea of trading for James.

by cornball on Sep 2, 2008 1:03 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

fair enough

Although I prefer to gamble on ability. If James can bounce back healthy, we can always trade him, and it would be at a higher value than Winn

Do you Wazzel?

by NeifiChicken on Sep 2, 2008 1:29 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Slightly though. That’s not as bad as totally.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
How is my adopted son almost twice as old as I am? Nevermind...Go Omar! Warm the Bench!

by WalrusMan on Sep 2, 2008 2:30 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Noah Lowry without the good years

Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus.

by oldjacket on Sep 2, 2008 12:59 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

but....

a better minor league track record

Do you Wazzel?

by NeifiChicken on Sep 2, 2008 1:02 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I have to say that I agree with those saying that Winn is a valuable player and should fetch a decent return on the open market, but as he doesn’t do any one thing extremely well (except for field, and he’s not really a flashy sort of defender, so he doesn’t get much attention for that) and there’s nothing that really jumps out about his statline, he’s probably undervalued by the rest of baseball.

He’s definitely too good of a player (not to mention the draft picks) to just trade him for nothing, as much as I’d like to see Nate Schierholtz starting every day. So I guess I will only be angry if Sabean makes no visible effort to trade Winn this offseason. If he does make an effort and finds the offers lacking, I’d be completely fine holding on to him for one more year.

As for a possible return, I’d probably be happy with some sort of package built around a B-type prospect.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Sep 2, 2008 1:33 PM PDT   0 recs

I side with the jponry faction

Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus.

by oldjacket on Sep 2, 2008 2:00 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

GROUPTHINK

Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.

by groug on Sep 2, 2008 4:47 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I read this as “jponry fiction”. I like you people but not enough to read stories about yourselves.

Farewell, Ray. We'll miss your smile and your sugar. Welcome, Steve Hammond "Eggs". Throw strikes.
comics | cartoons | Nattowear

by Natto on Sep 2, 2008 4:56 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

You might not want to check your e-mail, then… I already sent you a copy of my latest Skaldheim/Dan from NM adventure.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Sep 2, 2008 5:19 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

what exactly is a visible effort?

Someone get Damon Minor's agent on the phone stat!

by fanofvanlandingham on Sep 2, 2008 11:43 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

53 hits in 52 ABs?

I’ll take that any day. If he keeps up that pace, he’s untouchable. If he comes back to earth though and ends up batting less than 1.000, I say we trade him for JJ Hardy and Manny Parra.

by IVSPORT on Sep 2, 2008 1:57 PM PDT   0 recs

Winn and Molina

Won’t be traded in the off season. Regardless of their actual baseball value, who among GMs will value their crunchy vet’r’n goodness more than Sabes?

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN

by zenbitz on Sep 2, 2008 1:57 PM PDT   0 recs

Winn brings just the kind of experience these youngster need

How to deal with never, ever making the playoffs.

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Sep 2, 2008 2:08 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

OR...

how to get traded for a coach. Nearly twice.

Do you Wazzel?

by NeifiChicken on Sep 2, 2008 2:17 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

But is he as experienced as Obama or Palin?

Zooperstars, they quack me up!

by Goofus on Sep 2, 2008 2:39 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

how many pregnant daughters does he have?

Also, how many people has he tried to illegally fire?
Was he a mayor of a podunk town two years ago?

by positiveuphemism on Sep 2, 2008 2:44 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

IS HE A SECESSIONIST?

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Sep 2, 2008 3:10 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

No, all his children were delivered vaginally.

Zooperstars, they quack me up!

by Goofus on Sep 2, 2008 3:17 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I’m not a big history buff but I believe this may be one of the greatest political gaffes ever.

by positiveuphemism on Sep 2, 2008 3:35 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Let's hope.

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Sep 2, 2008 3:41 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

agreed.

just because Randy Winn once played a little Vice President back in high school and then that one game in which Bochy ran out of catchers does NOT mean he’d be a good VP.
.
.
.
but didn’t Nate Schierholtz used to be a vice president?

by ExcuseMeSwing on Sep 2, 2008 3:55 PM PDT