Very early thoughts on the 2009 June draft
Even though the season is not yet over, I don't see the Giants finishing with a worse record than the Nats, Mariners, Padres or Pirates. If the season ended right now, they would have the #7 pick since the Orioles would win the tiebreaker, having had a worse record last season. In any case it is likely the Giants will "earn" a top 10 pick for 2009.
For the past two drafts I have been hoping the Giants would use their highest draft picks to address the shortage of position prospects in their farm system. In 2007 they did not do that, but I don't think anyone can vehemently complain about the picks of MadBum and Timmy2. This season they did a fine job of drafting high-upside hitters.
Now with the 2009 draft in mind I am beginning to have a change of heart. It is still early and several hitting prospects might burst on the scene, but right now none of the choices is overwhelmingly compelling. It would be nice to have a great defensive shortstop who can hit for power, but Grant Green could be off the board at #2 (right after Strasburg). Donovan Tate is incredibly talented and could be the second coming of Bo Jackson but he is thought to want to play both football and baseball in college. Mychal Givens, a SS/P, is compared to this year's #1Tim Beckham, but he may actually be a better pick as a pitcher. Dustin Ackley is someone I would want the Giants to draft if he could ever show more power hitting potential, since he doesn't fit the prototypical slugging corner OF/1B mode.
So if the Giants pick a pitcher I would not be terribly disappointed for two reasons.
First, there seem to be more pitching prospects than hitting prospects at this early juncture. Off the top of my head I can think of Alex White, Kyle Gibson, Aaron Crow, Matt Purke, the aforementioned Givens, and if he is healthy, Tanner Scheppers.
Second, the performances of Cain and Sanchez this year have caused me some concern that neither will ever develop into a solid and reliable #2 or #3 starter. With MB and T2 being unproven, albeit promising, it would not hurt for the Giants to add another strong pitching prospect to the fold.
Does anyone else have any early wish lists for the 2009 draft?
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Yeah, Grant Green. But I know the chances of us landing him are practically impossible.
I’m also not sure what’s going to happen with the Pedro Alvarez situation, but if he makes his way back into the draft he’d instantly be atop my wish list as well. Dustin Ackley would be a good fit for us, IMO. I’ve heard a few people say he has the athleticism to play CF, it just depends on how his arm recovers.
I’m also not opposed to getting a pitcher a la Gibson, White or Crow, either. I’m pretty much cool with anything.
Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.
by Anticon23 on Sep 19, 2008 7:34 PM PDT 0 recs
Our outlook towards the draft has definetly changed in less than a year as we now have good prospects at all positions. When I say good I mean viable options to start at the major league level at every positions even though none of them are can’t miss prospects. My point being that our system is no longer desolate of position player prospects and I believe all of us would be happy now with the team drafting the best available player, be it a hitter or pitcher.
Pac Bell, SBC, AT&T, 2010=???
by jt_7241 on Sep 19, 2008 8:00 PM PDT 0 recs
yes
drafting the best available is the way to go
I see the future, and it is Pablo
by CB30 on
Sep 19, 2008 10:46 PM PDT
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Warning!
BWOOP! BWOOP! BWOOP!
Second, the performances of Cain and Sanchez this year have caused me some concern that neither will ever develop into a solid and reliable #2 or #3 starter.
Anyways, I’m still worried that if Alvarez and Hosmer don’t stick with their teams this year, we’d be pushed 2 more spots back.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
How is my adopted son almost twice as old as I am? Nevermind...Go Omar! Warm the Bench!
by WalrusMan on Sep 19, 2008 8:04 PM PDT 0 recs
LOL Cain is already a solid #2 and Sanchez already a solid #3.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on
Sep 19, 2008 10:34 PM PDT
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but Cain is a #3 at best.....AT BEST!
Omar...I'm done with you. Hello Darren Ford! Come to papa.
by PacBellBoozer on
Sep 20, 2008 1:23 AM PDT
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is that joke still going?
I see the future, and it is Pablo
by CB30 on
Sep 20, 2008 10:43 AM PDT
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but if they reenter, there are 2 more prospects the Giants would be ok with, so they wouldnt really be losing anything
I see the future, and it is Pablo
by CB30 on
Sep 19, 2008 10:47 PM PDT
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Nah..
I’m sure the Giants would get screwed instead.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
How is my adopted son almost twice as old as I am? Nevermind...Go Omar! Warm the Bench!
by WalrusMan on
Sep 20, 2008 4:22 AM PDT
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I’m glad I didn’t read this thread earlier because I would have gone batshit over that…
The amount of credit that Matt Cain doesn’t get sometimes is truly remarkable.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
Sep 20, 2008 3:24 AM PDT
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I LOVE draft threads, so thank you for starting a new one...
but you cannot, cannot write that Matt will not develop into a reliable #2 or #3.
He already is a solid #2.
Noonan. Nooooonan!
by Giant Fan in Singapore on
Sep 20, 2008 5:03 AM PDT
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The Padres’ biggest local sports casting news hack openly cheered for them to lose to the Nats tonight. I think he didn’t get the memo that the Mads don’t take the top talent at the top…ever.
it's always noonan somewhere
by sectionop92 on Sep 19, 2008 10:27 PM PDT 0 recs
Absolutely!
You are so right that Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez are solid #2 and #3 starters, respectively. Matt is a VERY good #2, and Jonathan is an OK #3. A few years ago I saw the average ERA’s for the #1 through #5 starters, and they were a lot higher than one would think.
I don’t remember them exactly, but they were something like this:
- 3.50
- 4.00
- 4.50
- 5.00
- 5.50
I’m hoping that Mad Bum can develop and stay healthy so that he could eventually become the Giants’ #2, with Cain dropping to#3 and Sanchez to #4. Throw in Alderson at #5, and one would have a very promising starting quintet.
And that’s not even counting the new ace, Barry Zito! :)
by sharksrog on Sep 19, 2008 11:40 PM PDT 0 recs
Thats a lot of #1's.
As soon as the season ends, expect a fanpost from me exploring this and trying to quantify where all our guys should be.
IP is a consideration, as well.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on
Sep 20, 2008 1:04 PM PDT
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It's not that far off
As I said, those were the APPROXIMATE ERA’s I remembered.
Right now there are 19 pitchers who have pitched enough innings to qualify for the ERA title who have an ERA of 3.50 or lower. So not bad for the #a guy, probably even a bit too restrictive (since there are 30 guys in the majors who are the #1 pitchers in their team’s rotation).
There are 47 pitchers with ERA’s of 4.00 or below. Again, pretty close for a #2. There are 67 pitchers at 4.50 or lower, indicating #3’s criteria isn’t far off. 79 pitchers at 5.00 or lower looks pretty good, considering a lot of #4’s haven’t pitched enough innings to qualify. And 83 pitchers at 5.50 or lower looks perhaps even a little low for #5’s, although MANY #5’s likely haven’t pitched enough innings.
Just for fun, Barry Zito — at 5.28 — is that #83 guy.
by sharksrog on
Sep 20, 2008 11:14 PM PDT
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Using FIP, Sanchez and Cain are solidly in the top 40% of ERA qualifying starters.
But the Dodgers have 3 starters in the top 20% and the Diamonbacks have 2. Only three teams have 3 starters in the top 40%, SF, Arizona and the Dodgers.
I’m surprised at how good Hiroki Kuroda has been.
Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus.
by oldjacket on
Sep 20, 2008 4:35 PM PDT
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FIP or even xFIP are probably better tools than ERA.
I plan to try to estimate what the FIP and/or xFIP cutoffs should be for #1-5 starters.
Also, look at the value of each additional inning pitched over “average”.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on
Sep 22, 2008 11:04 AM PDT
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If you’re going by xFIP then Cain really is a #3 starter at best. Also, I would recommend comparing to replacement level, not average – guys who throw 200 innings of league average pitching are valuable (and expensive). How you define “replacement level” is another question.
..so allow me to present Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as two sweet, sweet bottles of warming hooch.
by Cookyman on
Sep 22, 2008 12:51 PM PDT
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Define it as Barry Zito.
Ouuch.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
by xanthan on
Sep 22, 2008 1:26 PM PDT
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xFIP has always hated Cain.
Question does he have a low HR/FB on the road, too?
Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus.
by oldjacket on
Sep 22, 2008 3:10 PM PDT
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But by expected w/l
He’s the 6th best pitcher in the NL!
6th best! At BEST! And for once, that might not be sarcastic.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on
Sep 23, 2008 11:14 AM PDT
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Tate, Goodwin, and Givens
Donovan Tate:
6’3" 200 Lbs
R/R
CF/OF
If you’re reading about the draft this early, you like tools, and if you want a suggestion for a new James Bond villain, let me suggest Donavan Tate as Tools Galore. He compares favorably to the 14th overall pick in the 2008 draft, the Twins’ Aaron Hicks, as a centerfielder, both for his pros and cons.
Tate is the son of former NFL running back Lars Tate and is a top football recruit, with Rivals.com ranking him as the 86th best recruit in the nation. To get an idea of his athleticism, Rivals lists Tate as an "athlete" for football purposes (no set projected college position, generally the most athletic guys on the field) and among the "athletes," (again, the most athletic football players in the country), Tate was named the most athletic.
Tate uses his plus-plus arm (hit 95 from the outfield—that’s with no mound involved) and true 80 speed (6.3 to 6.4 in the 60-yard) to quarterback his high school team, and uses his 6′3, 200 frame to deliver big hits as a safety. Michigan and Georgia want him as a QB, while USC and Florida like him as a safety. So, he’s got a little bit of talent.
As far as baseball-specific skills, his speed and arm obviously play in center where he’s a developing defender that should be plus or more as a center fielder in time. Tate shows plus raw power and squares pitches up consistently when he makes contact.
The problem, as with the aforementioned Hicks, is if he will make enough contact, as Tate has rough plate discipline. In showcases, Tate produces, but not without some cause for concern. To put some numbers behind this general scouting consensus, BA’s Matt Blood reports that Tate slugged two HRs, a triple, and two doubles in 19 at-bats at the Tournament of Stars, but struck out six times with only one walk. Blood adds that one day, Tate made contact on seven of ten swings, while the next day he whiffed on six of seven swings.
That performance makes for an impressive line of .316/.350/.842, considering Tate is a high school junior using wood bats against top pitching; but almost any toolshed first-round bust has put up that kind of performance, so what did we really learn? Tate’s hitability will be a situation to monitor throughout the spring, but it will be something you can only learn about after talking to multiple scouts or after multiple viewings, and even then it will likely be heavily debated within each organization. Let the debate begin. (Tate photo: Rivals.com)
I like Brian Goodwin:
Brian is a left-handed hitting outfielder who can do it all. He runs well enough to be a legitimate center fielder. In addition, he shows arm strength and instincts in the field. At the plate he has a line drive stroke that produces consistent hard contact.
Brian hit .473 with 15 doubles, four triples and 21 stolen bases during his high school season at Rocky Mount. Just like last year’s Cape Cod Classic MVP, LJ Hoes, Goodwin plans to attend the University of North Carolina.
Position: CF
Bats/Throws: L/R
Ht/Wt: 6′0/188
Born:
School: Rocky Mount High School, North Carolina
High School Class of: 2009
Draft Eligible: 2009
Committed to: North Carolina2008 Stats: .473, 21-21 SB-ATT
Summary:
Goodwin is possibly the top prep prospect in the state of North Carolina and is one of the top prep outfielders in the country. He is a 5 tool player who works hard at improving his game.Goodwin is an excellent defensive centerfielder. He has the speed to cover a lot of ground, as evidenced by his 6.48 time in the 60. He also has a strong, accurate arm.
Offensively, Goodwin hits to all fields and produces a lot of line drives. He shows good and improving power.
Quotes
Rocky Mount coach Pat Smith on Goodwin- "Brian is nothing but class. He understands where he wants to go and he’s been given the natural ability. He takes pride in his overall game and thats why he’s going to be as good as he’s going to be."Honors/Achievements:
2008 AFLAC All-American
2008 Under Armour All-American
2008 Telegram All-Area Offensive Player of the Year
2008 Rocky Mount Telegram All Area Offensive Player of the Year
2008 Led North Carolina in doubles with 15
Brian Goodwin, outfielder out of Rocky Mount HS (N.C.) possesses a strong arm. He impressed with his accurate throws to third and to the plate
and Mychal Givens, RHP/SS
School & Hometown: Plant HS; Tampa, FL
Specs: 6′1, 190, Bats R, Throws R
Givens is an athletic and heady leader, a very good defender, and has a solid stroke with a little pop. I didn’t see enough size/projection (looks in person like 5′10, 175), power, or consistent hitability to project him as a first round pick, but realized that his track record, makeup, and performance give him upward mobility on draft boards. At the PG National showcase, he was up to 94 while flashing an above-average slider and changeup from a low 3/4 arm angle; similar to what I saw, but showing improvement across the board. As it stands now, there’s a slight lean from the people I’ve talked to for Givens to stay on the mound, but his progess on the mound and at the plate should be an interesting draft storyline to monitor.
Mychal Givens, a 6-foot-2, 185-pound right-handed pitcher and infielder from Plant High School (Tampa, Fla.), earned high school baseball’s highest honor Friday night as he was named the Aflac National High School Player of the Year and presented with the 2008 Jackie Robinson Award.
Givens was presented with the fifth annual award during the Aflac All- American Awards Dinner, which salutes the best of best in high school baseball leading into the annual Aflac All-American High School Baseball Game. On hand to make the presentation was Sharon Robinson, daughter of Jackie Robinson, and Hall of Fame shortstop Ozzie Smith, the game’s honorary chairman.
Givens finished his junior season with 8-1 record and a 1.79 ERA, racking up 48 strikeouts in only 43 innings of work. Offensively, his .421 batting average along with 34 runs scored, 32 hits, 17 RBIs, five doubles and even an inside the park home run helped carry his team to a No. 37 national ranking from Baseball America.
Hasheem "The Beat" Thabeet. A Warrior in 09.
by ejdacanay on Sep 20, 2008 12:55 AM PDT 0 recs
Wow!
Thanks for all the work! I are now learned much betterer.
your 2008 SF Giants: this isn’t totally insane, just really stupid
by Lyle on
Sep 20, 2008 8:17 AM PDT
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Donovan Tate! Wasn’t he engaged to Rachel from Friends?
by m34josh on Sep 20, 2008 1:47 AM PDT 0 recs
Thanks for the post. I’m kind of a draft addict myself. I’m keeping an eye on Aaron Crow (RHP) and Dustin Ackley (OF) at this point. The draft class looks pretty solid in pitching overall so far.
by Dan from NM on Sep 20, 2008 10:38 AM PDT 0 recs
If we pick fifth or sixth, I don’t think Grant Green is out of the question. Baseball America has him as the third-best college prospect right now (behind Stephen Strasburg and RHP Alex White from UNC), and the two high-schoolers at the top might tickle some team’s fancy. Not likely, but possible.
This is a definite best-player-available draft. Pitching, hitting…best player, please.
by Grant on Sep 20, 2008 11:17 AM PDT 0 recs
Also worth noting: At this time last year, top-25 draft prospect lists included Brandon Crawford and Roger Kieschnick.
by Grant on
Sep 20, 2008 11:18 AM PDT
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and we got both of them!
heh suckers.
Mischievously implosive purple pitching staff.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on
Sep 20, 2008 11:54 AM PDT
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Green would be a fantastically awesome pick for us, based on what I’ve read so far.
by Dan from NM on
Sep 20, 2008 1:25 PM PDT
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I’m not sure the college prospect list you have in mind is really all that current (I looked for a recent list at BA, but found no such one). Green very well could have jumped Alex White by now, with his performance at the Cape Cod.
I doubt the giants make it to fifth……i’ll have to take a current look at the records though. But best player available is certainly the way to go
Adoptive Parent of Francisco Peguero. He can throw, he can run, he can hit(fastballs), and he's Dominican. What else do you need to know?
by haverecords on
Sep 21, 2008 11:42 PM PDT
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Nevermind, I see the list you speak of (foolishly I went to the college section, instead of ’draft’).
Adoptive Parent of Francisco Peguero. He can throw, he can run, he can hit(fastballs), and he's Dominican. What else do you need to know?
by haverecords on
Sep 22, 2008 1:25 AM PDT
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I’d like to get Tate, with how quickly we’ve developed the system lately, I think its ok for the Giants to take a gamble on a kid with huge upside.
by Hobbes2d on Sep 20, 2008 12:33 PM PDT 0 recs
I agree, Tate sounds interesting. It also could be interesting what happens with Alvarez. If he goes back into the draft, there could be a chance that fear of Boras pushes him down. It sure would be nice to benefit from that kind of luck, but it’s clearly a very long shot at this point. Maybe worth thinking about, though.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on
Sep 20, 2008 3:12 PM PDT
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like a J.D drew kinda situation
I see the future, and it is Pablo
by CB30 on
Sep 20, 2008 6:19 PM PDT
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Isn’t that how we got into this mess in the first place? Calvin Murray, Carlos Valderrama, etc?
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on
Sep 20, 2008 3:48 PM PDT
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Valderrama wasn’t drafted. Murray for all of his faults was pretty highly regarded as a prep. He was drafted in the top 11 twice.
by Hobbes2d on
Sep 20, 2008 5:53 PM PDT
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