BP on Lincecum
Gary Huckabay not happy with the decision to let Timmy throw 138 pitches.
over 3 years ago
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Anyone can lead anything..
With a made up statistic.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
How is my adopted son almost twice as old as I am? Nevermind...Go Omar! Warm the Bench!
For example, you’re leading everybody in McCC Jerk Points.
It’s close, though. There’s a bunch of jerks nipping at your heels.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Sep 14, 2008 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions
This is a wonderfully clever response!
But it’s still wrong. There truly was no reason for Bochy to leave him in there except that he didn’t like being picked on in the press the last time he pulled Timmy from a possible shutout. It was dumb, dumb, dumb. Really, it was dumb. Dumb.
Dumb dumb.
Saving countless runs with my Brian Horwitz
by lyricalkiller on Sep 14, 2008 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, I shouldn't say NO reason
I understand the idea (though I suspect it’s wrong) that pitchers can be stretched out, or conditioned to be workhorses. If that was Bochy’s idea, then I’m maybe 10 percent less angry because at least it’s a reason. But it’s awfully risky anyway.
Saving countless runs with my Brian Horwitz
by lyricalkiller on Sep 14, 2008 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes, But Not All Have A Name That Reflects The Bias Of The Inventor
rather then having any actual basis in reality.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 7:17 PM PDT up reply actions
And he leads in PAP
by a lot – almost more than Sabathia and Verlander (the #2 and #3) combined.
I’d actually love to see the Giants keep Timmy back to like 90 pitches per start for the rest of the season ….
by SnowLeopard on Sep 15, 2008 12:03 AM PDT up reply actions
I talked to future Garrett, and he told me that based strictly on listening to KNBR, it was actually a very popular opinion.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Sep 14, 2008 5:26 PM PDT up reply actions
I just wish...
he would let me know at which pitch number Bochy’s decision becomes reckless and every other adjective he used in his baseball nerd column. Since Gary knows everything about baseball.
Do I need to start pulling my hair at pitch 100? throwing my television at 115? Breaking bottles over my roommates head at 130? By the way Gary described Lincecum last night, I’m surprised that Tim’s right arm is still attached to his body today.
Also, I’m glad that Gary has come to grips with the fact that he is a geek who has never played, and doesn’t know anything about actually playing. I thought that was his best argument.
Gary = less athletic Sean Salisbury.
line drawing fallacy?
or using exaggeration to prove a point.
Tim throwing 20 extra pitches (roughly .01% of his yearly total) isn’t reckless. Tim starting on two days rest is reckless.
look
Mark Prior.
Mark Prior made 30 starts in 2003, his first full year as a pro.
In those 30 starts, he went over 100 pitches 26 times.
He went over 110 pitches 19 times.
He went over 120 pitches 8 times.
And he went over 130 pitches 3 times.
And then, Mark Prior’s arm exploded. Look, there is a definite correlation between pitch counts in young pitchers and arm injuries. Prior had the perfect body and perfect mechanics and was ruined by his third year in the majors.
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Sep 14, 2008 7:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Sampe Of One Proves Nothing!
For every example in history of a damaged arm I can find two of one that wasn’t.
The point is a remains that we don’t know what actually abuses any individual pitchers arms and to make decisions based on fear of the worst case senerio (ie Mark Prior) is bad science.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions
we’ve posted links before to articles that have a much larger sample size on this issue. You don’t buy into those either.
Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus.
No You Haven't
None of these links proved anything they just assumed what they wanted to prove.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 8:46 PM PDT up reply actions
no
you don’t use any evidence to back your random claims, you just discredit people who do actual research and use real analysis to form informed opinions and then you dismiss them as “just assuming what they wanted to prove”.
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Sep 14, 2008 9:01 PM PDT up reply actions
look
just because there’s a 2:1 ratio for non-hurt to hurt young pitchers, doesn’t mean we shouldn’t take every single chance to keep our young pitchers from getting hurt. if there’s at least a little correlation, why take the chance and leave our future in a completely meaningless game?
THAT’S FUCKING RETARDED.
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Sep 14, 2008 8:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Exactly...meaningless
This is JUST a game. All we do is watch. Complaining about pitch counts is pretty retarded, if you ask me. It’s a game. A game.
by positiveuphemism on Sep 15, 2008 12:48 AM PDT up reply actions
I don’t know… I kind of think being worried about the short and long-term health of a guy’s body is worthwhile, regardless of whether all the fuss is over “JUST a game” or not.
I’m sure we all just feel like there’s absolutely nothing wrong when we see Willy McCovey in constant pain, struggling to walk these days or when we see a guy like Mark Prior who lost an entire career to injury. Pitch counts don’t necessarily have to do with either one (though they at least VERY conceivably have to do with Prior), but the basic idea of being concerned about a person’s health is never stupid.
What I would deem stupid rather, is unnecessarily risking hurting somebody for the sake of “JUST a game.”
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Sep 15, 2008 1:14 AM PDT up reply actions
Simple Solution - Don't Play
and it is the only solution.
by giantsrainman on Sep 15, 2008 1:23 AM PDT up reply actions
Swinging the pendulum too far the other way. This is what is known as the “Ralph Barbieri” argument. The “if Lincecum can’t handle ten more pitches, you might as well not pitch him the rest of the season!”
There is always risk in playing. That’s a given. That’s part of the unwritten waiver that an athlete unwritingly signs his/her life away to when s/he decides to play a sport. There are injury risks that NECESSARILY come with playing a sport. Those are accepted. Those are known. Those are given.
What we’re talking about are UNNECESSARY injury risks that are brought into play when you start jumping back and forth across these liminal areas.
When I talk about a guy pitching without risk, I am not discounting the fact that injury is always a risk that comes with playing. I am assuming a certain level of risk that is necessarily incurred by playing. I’m assuming that, and laying it to the side, away from my argument, because it GOES WITHOUT SAYING.
When I talk about unnecessary risks, I’m talking about things that clearly threaten exceeding the reasonable, acceptable, unspoken risks that we should all regard as the default.
“Don’t play” is taking it too far. That’s saying “exclude all risk.” All I’ve ever advocated is excluding unnecessary risk. “Don’t play” is not a counterpoint to unnecessary risk, it’s a counterpoint to ALL risk, and is an extreme, reactionary response to unnecessary risk that is designed to cloud the argument and trip up an opponent, but is not designed to actually address the point at hand.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Sep 15, 2008 1:35 AM PDT up reply actions
this is simply not true
Prior DID not have perfect mechanics. Also correlation in once instance, let alone 1,000, does not prove causation.
Someone get Damon Minor's agent on the phone stat!
by fanofvanlandingham on Sep 14, 2008 7:59 PM PDT up reply actions
everyone has perfect mechanics until they get hurt.
Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus.
hokay, fine.
Chris Carpenter
Carl Pavano
A.J. Burnett
Jeff Weaver
Mark Mulder
Dontrelle Willis
Barry Zito.
Those are all modern examples. Going back, Krukow, Valenzuela and countless others pitched too much early in their careers and then faded.
also, Mark prior had awesome mechanics in high school and even early on in his career.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/breaking-down-the-broken-down-a-video-analysis-of-mark-prior/
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Sep 14, 2008 8:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Listing Every Injured Pitcher Proves Nothing
What caused their injuries? What was’t done that would have prevented these injuries? This are the questions that matter and science does not yet have answers to these questions.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 8:48 PM PDT up reply actions
those are all examples of pitchers who:
1. pitched a lot early in their career.
2. had arm/shoulder injuries that limited their career.
cause/effect. cause/effect. cause/effect. you can infer that all of these young pitchers who were used a lot and then got hurt maybe shouldn’t have pitched a lot early on.
as a corollary, young pitchers who were eased into IP limits are generally injured less.
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Sep 14, 2008 9:05 PM PDT up reply actions
You Have Shown Nothing
That 1) is the cause of 2) or that 2) is the effect of 1). This is not evidence this is like testimonies used to advertise quack medicne.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 9:09 PM PDT up reply actions
IT'S A FUCKING
INFERENCE. WE’VE BEEN OVER THIS.
people can get injured from overexercise. the act of pitching is unnatural to the human body.
these are facts. based on this we see that those people pitched a lot and then got hurt. YOU CAN INFER THEN, THAT THOSE PEOPLE MIGHT HAVE NOT GOTTEN HURT HAD THEY NOT OVEREXERCISED IN AN UNNATURAL MATTER.
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Sep 14, 2008 9:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Where Is The Evidence Of Where These Boundries Are?
Where is the evidence that teams that adhere to a strict pitch count have less injuries them teams that don’t? The only way to be safe from this is to never pitch. The best way shown to judge this risk todate is the judgement of those most experienced in baseball. This stat based method of making this judgement has not been shown to be effective. Until it is I will continue to prefer the judgement of knowledgable baseball men like Boch and Rags.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 9:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Has anyone, ever,
once.
encouraged strict pitch counts in this forum. The number doesn’t matter. Tim looked exhausted last night. he looked spent and there was no reason for him to be out there. It was ameaningless game.
there is no evidence to say that “experienced baseball judgement” is the best way to do it. and in fact, pitchers used to get hurt a lot more when they were workhorses early on in their careers. we’ve talked about this.
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Sep 14, 2008 9:53 PM PDT up reply actions
I Didn't See The Out Of Gas Signs
you are saying you saw. But more importantly Bochy didn’t see them and I will take his judgement over yours or mine on this any and every day.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 10:01 PM PDT up reply actions
why?
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Sep 14, 2008 10:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Because Bochy Has Experience And Knowledge
that neither of us ever will have.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 10:10 PM PDT up reply actions
P.S.r
Your failure to recognize this just proves how far away from Bochy’s level you are.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions
what does that mean?
how do you know what value experience and “knowledge” have?
where did he get the “knowledge”? what is that knowledge.
you speak in generalities and don’t back up your facts. you’re a ninth grade essay.
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Sep 14, 2008 10:12 PM PDT up reply actions
So, do you have anything besides the appeal to authority?
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
He also has emotional investments that can bias him and cause him to misperceive situations
that neither of us ever will have.
by SnowLeopard on Sep 14, 2008 10:34 PM PDT up reply actions
What?
Neither of us would even be here talking about this if we didn’t have these emotional investments.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 10:38 PM PDT up reply actions
we have
different emotional investments.
therefore nobody knows exactly what is right.
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Sep 14, 2008 10:40 PM PDT up reply actions
so use
the one that has evidence instead of “trusting” that what has always been right is still right.
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Sep 14, 2008 10:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Don't Agree
Baseball like most everything in life is a people business. It is a managers job to make these decisions and he is doing everyone a mis-service if he does not use all his skills and knowledge to make this decisions and instead relies on just the evidence you think should matter most.
Finally, just because you call this hypothisis evidence doesn’t make it so.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 11:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Ops, Replyed To Wrong Post
I ment this to be in reply to ’so use" not “we have”.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 11:31 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm saying, it's not like
Bochy insider status means that he’s doing the right thing. Let’s say Timmy complained last start about not getting the CG SHO. So, Bochy knows that, and we don’t – and he made decsions based on that. That doesn’t mean that trying to give Timmy the accolade he wants is a smart or valid criteria to determine whether to send him out for the last couple innings last Saturday or not. Simply put, Bochy’s insider knowledge could blind him as well as give him insight
by SnowLeopard on Sep 14, 2008 10:50 PM PDT up reply actions
It Is Bochy's Job To Make These Decisions
He is in the best position to have all the information and evidence needed to best make these decisions. Yes, part of what Bochy must consider is the needs and desires of his players. These matter because the effect motivation and performance. A good manager knows how to best balance all of these and make the right decision.
I think Bochy is such a good manager.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 11:29 PM PDT up reply actions
I think that Bochy is a fine manager
and I think that he made a mistake on Saturday night
by SnowLeopard on Sep 15, 2008 12:00 AM PDT up reply actions
He didn't look tired to me
But because that is what you want to see..
by positiveuphemism on Sep 15, 2008 12:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Or maybe because that is what he actually saw. People DO have different perspectives. Weird thing about people, that.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Sep 15, 2008 1:14 AM PDT up reply actions
seems like you are saying that because each pitch is only one more than the last, then there is no point to putting a limit on a pitcher’s throws.
Just because you can’t figure out what exactly the line is for each individual pitcher doesn’t mean a general limit for pitches isn’t prudent.
Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus.
In his first 54 starts in the MLB,
he still hasn’t thrown more pitches then the number he averaged in his last year in college.
I simply hate that the pitch count has become the end all be all number that defines when a player should not throw another pitch in the game. I feel that there are different indicators that can’t be measured in graph plots or a pitch counts.
A manager should know how many pitches his starter has thrown, but to call last night, “utterly, completely, and colossally reckless, stupid, arrogant, and just plain lazy”, I think is putting a bit too much into one number. Seeing how 138 was 2 FB at 95 with late movement.
Oh yeah, and Mark Prior could never do a handstand, so I think we should stop comparing Tim to Mark.
Correction
In his first 54 MLB starts he still hasn’t thrown more pitches in a single game, then the number he averaged in his last year in college.
college hitters are just like MLB-hitters, aren’t they?
Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus.
And college coaches are NOTORIOUSLY careful with their players.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Sep 14, 2008 9:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Good point. Also, it’s too early to tell if his college workload will affect him at some point. Either way, it probably wasn’t a wise choice to work him so hard at such a young age, and it’s not a good idea to aim for similar numbers.
Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
So What?
Was Lincecum not trying or thowing as hard?
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 9:10 PM PDT up reply actions
I doubt he needed his breaking stuff to get most hitters out. I doubt he needed his best fastball, either.
I don’t think facing minor league or college hitters is as stressful on a pitcher’s arm as facing major league hitters.
Whether you think they are appropriately specified or not, there area number of studies correlating pitch counts in the majors to injury. I don’t know of any at the collegiate level.
Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus.
Irrelevant
It is irrelevant how hard Timmy was throwing at the end of the night on Saturday. What is relevant is how hard he will be able to throw in 2009, 2010, etc. When a pitcher breaks down, it doesn’t usually happen that their arm makes a loud “crack” sounds one day that they go one pitch too far, and they can never pitch again. It’s more often like, their velocity and movement is down the next season – like if Timmy in 2009 goes 130 K / 4.55 ERA, or some franchise-torpedoing situation like that.
by SnowLeopard on Sep 14, 2008 10:39 PM PDT up reply actions
When a pitcher breaks down, it doesn’t usually happen that their arm makes a loud "crack" sounds one day that they go one pitch too far, and they can never pitch again.
Not everyone can be Dave Dravecky.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Sep 14, 2008 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions
yes and his junior year of college he made all of 17 starts (he pitched in 22 games total). Usually college pitchers start 1 game a week for a 4 month period or so, not one game every 5th day for a 6 month period.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Sep 15, 2008 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Seeing how 138 was 2 FB at 95 with late movement.
I never liked this argument. You don’t have to be fresh to throw as hard as you did in the first. You just have to put more behind it, which isn’t, by any conceivable means, what you want a guy doing. Sure, it’s nice that the velocity is the same, but how much more is he putting into that velocity now than he was at the beginning of the game? If you ask me, it’s foolish to think “none.”
You just don’t know. There are MUCH better visual indicators of fatigue than velocity, control being principle among them (or, if your eye is sharp enough to see it, mechanical compensation being principle among them).
I absolutely don’t disagree with your sentiment, I just don’t like to see that “he’s still throwing hard” argument. It’s a total fallacy.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Sep 14, 2008 9:02 PM PDT up reply actions
That Is Where The Eye Of Experienced Basebal Men Comes In
They can tell (even if you can’t) when a pitcher is laboring.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 9:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, but being experienced doesn’t always make them smart.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Sep 14, 2008 9:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Sometimes they can’t.
Sometimes they ignore it to further their own careers. (see Martin, Billy)
Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus.
Just Another "Testimony" Trying To Sell Quackery.
Please show me evidence that pitch count managers have less injuries then non pitch count managers. It is easy to find an example of one on one side that has more injuries then one on the other side but what matters is do they as a group have better results. There is just no evidence to suppor t that they do.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 9:51 PM PDT up reply actions
response to oldjacket and howtheyscored
No doubt MLB talent is far superior, just saying the amount of pitches he threw wasn’t unusual to his arm.
Reading what his father has said about the mechanics of Tim’s pitching motion, makes me feel comfortable with Tim being able to throw more pitches than the mere mortal pitcher since his whole body is being put into the pitch, not just the arm. I also agree that a manager must be concerned with overworking pitchers. However, over a season, not because he threw 20 more pitches than his normal workload (especially when they are low stress pitches, like last nights). It’s like a marathon runner, running 28 miles instead of the usual 26.
You’re rite about the “still throwing hard” point howtheyscored. My intention was to also write that the pitch was on the black (perfect location). If I were manager I would base more of my decision on control and mechanics and less pitch count. Its important, but I think baseball has over-valued its importance.
but
he keeps having him throw over 115 pitches again and again and again.
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Sep 14, 2008 11:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Hmm...sounds like his arm can handle it
Again and again and again tends to indicate ability.
by positiveuphemism on Sep 15, 2008 1:04 AM PDT up reply actions
The point seems to always be that these problems show up most clearly in subsequent seasons. Krukow threw a lot of innings again and again and again and again that year he threw 245 innings.
He never came close again or again or again or again… but yeah, he totally proved that he could always handle it that one year he did it.
And yes, I know this is just one example. Other examples have been cited AD NAUSEUM. I’m just simplifying.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Sep 15, 2008 1:16 AM PDT up reply actions
Pitch Counts Are Just Self Fullfilling Prophesy.
If no one trains to throw more no one will.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 8:50 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm glad
you made your glorious comeback with a +1 for a guy named cumball?
faREAL
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Sep 14, 2008 7:43 PM PDT up reply actions
It's always Sunny in Rainmandelphia
And yet, after three years of you tell us everything’s peachy, the Giants still suck. You’re so smart!
Saving countless runs with my Brian Horwitz
by lyricalkiller on Sep 14, 2008 7:46 PM PDT up reply actions
So...
Maybe now he has a CG we can limit him to 100. Hopefully…
When another vilely scrawny field is silly, some arena toward an instinct can be profound to a sincere jail.
Why?
There are still three more wins to earn to get to 20 and a Cy Young Award to chase. If Timmy wins Thursday against the DBacks (and he ain’t being limited to 100 pitches to chase this win) Timmy will start Tuesday against the Rockies and Sunday against the Dodgers to go after these goals and he won’t be limited to no stupid 100 pitches in these games either.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 7:13 PM PDT up reply actions
They’re certainly not going to let him throw 130+ again, judging by Bochy’s comments before the last game. It’s pretty clear they wanted to get him that shutout.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
I Think This Is Right.
But going into the 110’s I think we can expect to happen and perhaps even the 120’s.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 7:54 PM PDT up reply actions
110 is okay in a vacuum, but I think we should start thinking about his inning total for the year too.
Regularly pushing a young pitcher over 120 in a losing season is taking a needless risk.
Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus.
Where Is Your Evidence
That 120 is the right number in gereral of for Timmy in particular? How do you know it ain’t highter.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 8:52 PM PDT up reply actions
But there’s no need to test this hypothesis like this in a season like this one.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
I Am Not Testing Anything
I am trusting the experienced eyes of Boch and Rags.
You can’t just state a hypothesis like pitch counts and then only accept an alternative view (that is actually the traditional and long standing view) when they prove you wrong. The burdon of proof is on those with the new hypothesis not on those that are not willing to accept it without such proof.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 9:17 PM PDT up reply actions
no
both are legitimate and if one has evidence (our point of view) and the other has no basis other than accepted opinion, I’d generally defer to the hypothesis with evidence.
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Sep 14, 2008 9:19 PM PDT up reply actions
You Have No Evidence
I Have The History Of Baseball which has worked pretty damm good before your the false prophesy of pitch couts ever showed up. We is the evidence that pitch counts have reduced injuries? There is just not any.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 9:22 PM PDT up reply actions
I don’t know of any era to era studies like that. All I know of the studies done on the actual players who actually play the game now.
but where’s your evidence that they haven’t?
Why do I have the burden of proof here? The consequences of me being wrong is a few more innings of Tyler Walker. The consequences of you being wrong is an exceptional young man’s career.
Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus.
All Today's Studies Really Say
Is that pitchers get injured (dah). They do not provide evidence that the risk of injury is reduced by using pitch counts. This is just their hypothesis.
You have the burdon of proof because you seek to lesson exceptionalness because of your unproved perception of the risk of this exceptionalness.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions
You have the burdon of proof because you seek to lesson exceptionalness because of your unproved perception of the risk of this exceptionalness.
I have no idea what that means. Sounds like word salad to me.
Travis Denker can hit a little. That's why I drive his bus.
The Point Is You Want To Limit
the great things Timmy is allowed to try and do because of your perception of the risk of him going after them.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions
great things?
what’s great about beating the padres in a meaningless implicationless game in september?
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Sep 14, 2008 10:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Talking About 20 Wins And Cy Young
talking about first complete game shutout.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 10:22 PM PDT up reply actions
I'd gladly give all that shit up
in exchange for an > 1.50 ERA, 55+ wins, and 750+ Ks over 2009-2011
by SnowLeopard on Sep 14, 2008 10:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Who Says You Have To
sacrifice one to get the other. I want both and so does Timmy and the Giants.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 10:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Research and Science
shows you often have to sacrifice one to get the other.
But, sure, hey, the flood that floated Noah’s arc 4,000 years ago is what killed the dinosaurs. Have it your way.
by SnowLeopard on Sep 14, 2008 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Actually
Sports Science shows that you grow into this by hard work a practice. You don’t just get there by working less now in the hope that you will some how magicly be able to work more later.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions
I have no idea what that means. Sounds like word salad to me.
I think it’s from that awesome Giants blog I found.
#1 JUDY STEFFES FAN
My favorite pie is (name of pie flavor)
Bay City Ball
Here, read this.
Since it’s a lot of reading, I’ll quote from the conclusion:
The implications for pitcher usage are rather straightforward; starting pitchers should, in general, be held to 121 or fewer pitches (Categories I, II, and III). There are some circumstances where this need not apply — if winning today’s game is of significantly higher strategic importance than the pitcher’s next few starts (e.g. playing a division rival during a pennant race). Also, if a manager believes a pitcher is physically superior in endurance than other pitchers, he may judiciously allow him to throw deeper into games. Naturally, the state of the bullpen and the rest of the starting staff may also figure into the decision — a 5% decline from David Wells is still a better pitcher than Roy Halladay. However, even though extenuating circumstances may call for pushing a workhorse starter to a Category IV start (up to 132 pitches), or even a low Category V start, it should be viewed as nearly inexcusable to let a starting pitcher exceed 140 pitches in any start.
Managers who allow pitchers to throw too many pitches in a start may not be only jeopardizing that pitcher’s future, but hurting his current team’s chances at success as well. For the benefit of another half inning of work from a tired starter, a manager may be gambling with that pitcher’s next 4 or 5 starts at the very least. The evidence shown here shows that a season-long strategy to maximize the effectiveness of a pitching staff through managed workloads makes sense, even under an urgent “we need to win now, the future will take care of itself” philosophy.
Proud adoptive parent of Tim Alderson.
as is yours.
this one is just better informed and has research to back it up.
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Sep 14, 2008 10:28 PM PDT up reply actions
I Take That Back
It is generalization for performance impacts without any shown relationship to injuriy risk inpact.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 10:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Do you ever read the baseball research?
Or only watch games?
To be honest, you are coming across to me as not so informed.
by SnowLeopard on Sep 14, 2008 10:44 PM PDT up reply actions
I Read Every Thing I Can
I most like to read that which challanges my way of thinking. I don’t look for those that agree with me I look for those that don’t. You learn nothing by just reading what you already agree with.
That said, I am not an easy convert. You have to bring alot more then I have seen yet to convert me. But, I am convertable and have beeen converted on many other issues in the past. I have also converted many willing to listen to my way of thinking on many issues in the past.
To me this is all about seeking to learn more.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 10:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Thanks
I am enjoying (and learning) from this discussion.
by giantsrainman on Sep 14, 2008 10:55 PM PDT up reply actions
I Lol'ed at this
a 5% decline from David Wells is still a better pitcher than Roy Halladay.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Sep 15, 2008 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions
You have the burden of proof
because you are the one who is introducing new data to the argument. The pitch count thing may end up being true, but at this point it is simply a theory. I don’t know if anyone is using the scientific method to prove or disprove the theory and kind of doubt you could.
In any case, burden of proof is on you.
by positiveuphemism on Sep 15, 2008 1:07 AM PDT up reply actions
I’m with oldrips. I think you’re being far too technical with this breakdown. It’s not simply the burden of proof, but the consequences of proof.
Like oldrips says, the worst case scenario for pitch counts is that we lose a an undefined number of complete games. The worst case scenario for dismissing the pitch count altogether is that we lose an undefined number of careers. Sometimes you can just look at something and realize that it’s not worth the risk of proving instead of having to demand proof because of semantics.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Sep 15, 2008 1:25 AM PDT up reply actions
What Is Your Basis For Believing That Pitch Counts
are more effective at reducing risk then the trained eye of the manager and pitching coach? I see none and until someone provides some I will continue to stand squarly on the side of trusting these guys to use their eyes and experience to make these decisions rather then trusting any arbitrary pitch count.
Pitchers get hurt they have always gotten hurt. If it can’t be shown that pitch counts reduce injuries then what is the point of using them to assess risk? There is no point in making this change in risk assessment until their is evidence that it is better.
by giantsrainman on Sep 15, 2008 1:32 AM PDT up reply actions
I never said that I believe pitch counts are more effective at reducing the risk than anything. I said that the risk of proving that they are – at least by the most popular means presented thusfar: discarding them – simply isn’t worth the endeavor.
I’m by no means a hard pitch count nazi. High pitch counts are fine in a certain context and even low pitch counts are bad in a certain context. I think that fatigue is clearly the key, and always has bee. I think that there are visible signs of fatigue, but I also know that it’s not always so kind as to present itself visibly with a bow and a ribbon. I do not believe that exceeding a “pitch count” will lead to injury. I DO believe that exceeding a fatigue level will lead to injury.
But on that same note, I think it’s ridiculous to say that number of pitches is not a factor in fatigue. And if fatigue is the risk that we’re trying to avoid and pitch volume is a KNOWN factor of fatigue, then I have no qualms whatsoever with saying that there’s absolutely no reason not to be cautious with a known risk factors.
I just don’t see how this is unreasonable.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Sep 15, 2008 1:43 AM PDT up reply actions
I think the key is using your pitchers to the best of their ability. Part of doing that is finding out what they can do. If you never allow a pitcher to throw over 120 pitches, and that pitchers name is not Roy Halladay, then the odds are very strong you will rarely see your pitcher close out games.
An ace pitcher who can throw a complete game now and again relieves the rest of the pitching staff to an immense degree. Sometimes you have to find out what the guy can do.
I am not worried about Timmy. He will be fine. Let’s just enjoy his pitching and worry about pitch counts on other days.
by positiveuphemism on Sep 15, 2008 1:45 AM PDT up reply actions
> An ace pitcher who can throw a complete game
> now and again relieves the rest of the pitching staff
> to an immense degree.
1. Yes, relieves the relievers. But I question “immense”
2. This is a basically irrelevant factor with September call-ups
3. It is not a valid goal if it comes at the expense of someone’s career
> I am not worried about Timmy. He will be fine.
You don’t know that.
by SnowLeopard on Sep 15, 2008 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Just Wondering What The Huck Will Say
about Big Lou letting Big Z throw 110 first time back from shoulder tendonitis just to get his No-No?
I trust experienced baseball men like Bug Lou and Boch way more then I trust a pitch count and all you geeks here that want to treat it like it is the Bible of Baseball.
Look
I’m sorry we didn’t all pretend to play in the College World Series, but “nerds” generally know a lot about baseball because they study the effects of play and the “statistics” (ooh scary!) and use that information to make informed opinions.
Big Lou is an idiot. he’s been successful once in his career and only because he had an awesome team assembled in Seattle.
Bruce Bochy still plays Rich Aurilia almost every day. I don’t need to tell you how stupid that is.
Look, these two know about as much as we do, although I’d wager that we might know a bit more, unless Bochy does some intense research to the contrary. I’d really like to hear if he has.
Also, we don’t just trust pitch counts. “we” look at a variety of stats and look at history to make inferences that maybe we should restrict the pitch counts and abuse of our young and important future.
and if you don’t believe all of this, I ask you this. Why leave it to chance? Pitching less doesn’t hurt, and if we don’t know what pitching more does, why leave him in at the end of a very unimportant game?
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Sep 14, 2008 9:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Why do you have to play the race card?
:)
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Sep 15, 2008 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions
The article: sure
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
pretty okay?
BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Sep 14, 2008 10:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Where's your proof?
You just want to limit the awesomeness of the MCC for some unsubstantiated theory!
Catcher are base running. Hitters are offense.
If we were all crazy then Grant wouldn’t tolerate us!
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
Yeah, he couldn’t handle the competition.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Sep 15, 2008 12:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Not just crazy.
Batshit crazy.
Adoptive Parent of Francisco Peguero. He can throw, he can run, he can hit(fastballs), and he's Dominican. What else do you need to know?
by haverecords on Sep 15, 2008 12:22 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm not crazy
You’re the one that’s crazy.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Sep 15, 2008 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions
Rainman's Hypothisis
If we all had 12 fingers instead of 10 144 (12 squared) not 100 (10 squared) would be the magic number that you all started freaking out over as a pitcher’s pitch count raised above. What scares you all is that 138 is 38 above 100. I say just grow a couple more fingers and then you will feel better as it will be 6 below 144.
YOU HAVE NO PROOF FOR THIS HYPOTHESIS!!1!!!!ELEVEN
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
Absolutely True
I need some people to be willing to grow the extra fingers to test it. Can I count on you?
by giantsrainman on Sep 15, 2008 1:49 AM PDT up reply actions
So why do we tend to be perfectly fine when a guy throws 120 pitches? That’s the number that’s, you know, actually the generally accepted baseline for worry.
I don’t have 10.95445115 fingers. At least… I don’t think I do.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Sep 15, 2008 1:48 AM PDT up reply actions
You Feel Ok With 1 Extra Finger But 2 Sacres You (11 squared is 121)
by giantsrainman on Sep 15, 2008 1:51 AM PDT up reply actions
To Be More Percise
You feel fine with an extra finger’s worth but more scares you.
by giantsrainman on Sep 15, 2008 1:59 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, funny thing about exponents.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Sep 15, 2008 2:01 AM PDT up reply actions
so you wouldn’t mind stretching Antonio Alfonseca out to 144 pitches? (by the way, how the hell were there 7 different responses to a 12 finger reference and none of them mentioned Antonio Alfonseca?)
by FluLikeSymptoms on Sep 15, 2008 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions
oh, and to the point about 100
what freaks us right thinking people about 138 is not the fact that is a greater than some made up number like 100. It is this (from Baggerly’s blog):
Over the past five seasons, only two other major league pitchers have been allowed to throw 138 pitches in a start. We all remember Jason Schmidt’s 144-pitch game on Felipe Alou’s watch in 2004. The other guy, Livan Hernandez, might as well have been born in the 19-aughts. He’s done it five times.
Meaning that it is the fact that this goes so far beyond what normal pitchers do on a regular basis that scares us. Yes, I know there in no absolute PROOF that it directly leads to catastrophic arm injuries and maybe the rest of baseball is just filled with a bunch of pussies that won’t let their pitchers be real men. But let’s not push our prized 24 year old stud pitcher well beyond established contemporary practices in this utterly worthless season.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Sep 15, 2008 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Why do we have at least three people posting in this thread
right now…after 1:30 am on a monday morning. wacky.
by positiveuphemism on Sep 15, 2008 1:47 AM PDT reply actions
I’m not going to bed until 5:00 a.m. anyway, so it’s all good for me.
At around 2:30, I’m going to go play Mega Man, though.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Sep 15, 2008 1:49 AM PDT up reply actions
This just in: Dr. Wiley’s castle robots = really hard.
At least, before I learned about the pause glitch… we’ll see if I get frustrated enough to resort to it.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Sep 15, 2008 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions
I’m putting off writing something. I really should just go to bed.
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
Writing something??! Is it a love letter!?
:: nervously awaits a response ::
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Sep 15, 2008 1:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, but it’s so hard to put it into the right words.
I mean, I wouldn’t want zenbitz to get the wrong idea, you know?
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com. It's not being updated right now. Hope for more at your own risk.
Oh... ummm... ahem
So, zenbits, then… yup….
Errr… I guess, well… yeah….
Then… I guess you’re planning to have him proof-read it before you send it to me or something?
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Sep 15, 2008 2:16 AM PDT up reply actions
I would like to thank all of the contributors to this fan shot
I now have all of the angst I will ever need for the rest of my life.
by Lars The Wanderer on Sep 15, 2008 8:53 AM PDT reply actions
Is Timmy hurt today?
No?
Then I’m not going to worry about him today. I’ll enjoy the end of the baseball season (as much as possible, that is) and not wring my hands about some vague, unpredictable possible consequence that could be coming (or not) for Tim anywhere from 2 years to a decade in the future.
YOU DON"T HAVE ANY EVIDENCEN!@@!!111
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Sep 15, 2008 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions
just going for the orange and black post, am I right?
Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
Had not thought of that
BUT I LIKE IT!!!!!!
by SnowLeopard on Sep 15, 2008 11:47 PM PDT up reply actions
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