McCovey Chronicles: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:



Around SBN: Phillies Coast Past Brewers, Face L.A. In NLCS Bar-right-arrows



Schulman: Ochoa and Burriss are your starters

 

On the infield: For now, Ivan Ochoa is the starting shortstop and Emmanuel Burriss the second baseman. Is that a preview of the 2009 starting middle infield? The Giants' brass is asking the same question.

"It's very possible," manager Bruce Bochy said. "That's what we're doing now, taking a look at them. It's early, but I think they work well together, and they're getting some hits, too."

Ochoa is 11-for-36 (.306) with two doubles since his call-up. Burriss is batting .270 with five extra-base hits in 148 at-bats.

 

Link

OK, go.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

2 recs | Comment 120 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

I knew there was a reason I liked Schulman.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Aug 8, 2008 10:53 AM PDT   0 recs

In this case the obvious is a good answer. Is not his fault Sabes and Co. need to be hit with the Clue by Four a few more times.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Aug 8, 2008 12:36 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

But Baron

Are you saying you prefer Burriss at 2B to SS? I agree with xanthan below.

Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!

by Lyle on Aug 9, 2008 8:36 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I’m saying I want Burriss to start at a middle infield position.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Aug 9, 2008 11:57 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I’m glad they are getting playing time now but will Burriss be the worst offensive 2B in all of baseball? He appears to play awesome D but I’d love to see him at SS.

His OPS+ puts him between Adam Kennedey and Juan Uribe.

I just also realized that Freddy Sanchez is having an awful year. OPS+ of 64, ouch.

by xanthan on Aug 8, 2008 10:54 AM PDT   0 recs

What’s an average line for a 2B compared to a SS? Is there a significant difference?

proud father of the newly acquired Brandon Crawford..

by Azmanz on Aug 8, 2008 10:58 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I’ll use EqA because I like it, and because of it’s SB component, it would help Manny’s score.

Average 2B – .261
Average SS – .248

Manny has a .240 EqA.

The offensive requirements are much higher for 2B than they are for SS. I’m pretty sure that Manny could play a defensively competent SS and his bat also plays much better there. Putting him at 2B doesn’t make much sense when you’ve got Denker, Frandsen, and Velez, all who should out hit Manny.

by xanthan on Aug 8, 2008 11:03 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

And it’s just weird that they want to turn over SS to Ochoa now, why not early in the season? Why did they use Bocock? Ochoa has appeared to play a fabulous defensive SS, but he is what he is and I like the team makeup better with Manny at SS and a better bat at 2B.

But, I’ll say again that I’m glad that they are getting playing time and not Rich Aurilia or something.

by xanthan on Aug 8, 2008 11:04 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Maybe they did the right thing

and Ochoa figured something out while playing in Fresno this year?

proud father of the newly acquired Brandon Crawford..

by Azmanz on Aug 8, 2008 11:08 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Sabean said Ochoa was giving up switch hitting in the spring so his bat wasn’t ready to go… it couldn’t have been much worse than Bocock’s.

Adopted Giant Brian Wilson: One of the few reasons to watch this year.

by sfgreg on Aug 8, 2008 11:11 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

found jesus?

by ryanmiles on Aug 8, 2008 11:25 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

He was behind the right field wall the whole time.

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Aug 8, 2008 12:37 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Sabean said yesterday

Ochoa used to switch hit but they had him bat exclusively right handed this year so they kept him down to work on that or else he could have been used instead of Bocock.

by superk1ng on Aug 8, 2008 11:11 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Hmmm

didn’t seem to bother them any to have Ortmeier work on batting exclusively RH at the major league level (speaking of which—why has he gone back to SH in the minors?). Don’t see why it would have been more difficult for Ochoa to work on hitting RH for a month in the majors than it was for Bocock to work on hitting anything in the majors.

My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Aug 8, 2008 12:26 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

My guess about Ort

Is that he thinks his only (long)shot to make it at this point is if he can somehow revive himself as a switch hitting 4th OF.

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Aug 8, 2008 12:37 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Roger,

Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!

by Lyle on Aug 9, 2008 8:38 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Xanthan, you completely ignore the defensive abilities of all the players in contention. The fact is, a Burris-Ochoa middle IF would likely be one of the very the best defensive MIs in MLB. I’m not sure another 10 or 20 points of EqA makes up for that.

by allfrank on Aug 8, 2008 12:39 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Well
I’m not sure another 10 or 20 points of EqA makes up for that.

I’m pretty sure it does.

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Aug 8, 2008 12:42 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Why am I agreeing with you recently? We’re supposed to argue, that’s our thing.

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Aug 9, 2008 2:01 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

It's a combination of Jack Wilson-Pokey Reese proportions!!!

Why is it so easy to draw parallels between the current Giants an the Pirates pirates of the recent past? Well, except for Giles and Ramirez…

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Aug 8, 2008 12:50 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

It would also be one of the worst hitting middle infields in the game.

I’m not completely ignoring anything, Frank. Defense matters, I never said it didn’t. We know that Burriss won’t hit enough to play 2B, but he could pass at SS, a position which is a glaring hole on this team.

I don’t get the sudden urge to let Ochoa start. I’m fine with that, but why wasn’t he called up sooner? Why does he play SS over Manny?

by xanthan on Aug 8, 2008 12:52 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

And, despite Burriss and Ochoa looking defensively sound so far, we don’t know the “defensive abilities the players in contention”. Let’s give them more than a 100 innings played at their positions before we give them gold gloves.

by xanthan on Aug 8, 2008 12:53 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I think it might be the worst-hitting middle infield in the game… off the top of my head, the only middle-infield combos that are that punchless this year are Washington and San Diego, and both those teams have more reason to expect improvement than we do.

Many of us remember the composition of the good Royals and Cardinals teams in the eighties, or brilliant defensive teams from even earlier. I just don’t think that’s a viable strategy anymore… the offensive bar has been raised too high. It’d be a stretch to live with one guy like this in the lineup, let alone two.

by onlxn on Aug 8, 2008 1:24 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I think there's a greater point here.

Even with those black holes in the lineup and the handicap of the era, said Royals and Cardinals team scored more runs than the current Giants team.

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Aug 8, 2008 1:30 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I don’t know if those types of team would be obsolete in to days ball.

What i do know is the Giants INF has been mired at the bottom of MLB for production on either sides of the ball. So reeking for the next 1-2 seasons is already a foregone conclusion. We don’t have any large amount of obviously superior talent ready to infuse into the Inf so any “upgrades ” will be gradual and partial. As long as those “upgrades” are not under contract for multiple years and are under 30 ( so Botchy will bench them when appropriate) we are as close to golden as we are going to get.

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

by daveinexile on Aug 8, 2008 4:19 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Is Ochoa looking that good at short? I confess I haven’t been paying a lot of attention lately, but I remember a lot of complaints about his fielding from spring training and Fresno.

by Evan on Aug 8, 2008 1:27 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I’m judging from a small sample size, but he looks good to me. He’s got a good arm, very good range and has looked smooth on every play I’ve seen him make. That “smoothness” is what I think separates him from Manny. I don’t dsilike Manny, but Ivan looks more Omar-like in the position.

As I said on another thread, I see Burriss as a great (cheap and passbale) utility IF not unlike what Ramon Martinez was when he was a Giant.

Adoptive father of howtheyscored. The beatings will begin momentarily.

by Goofus on Aug 8, 2008 1:42 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

agreed

He’s smoothy

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Aug 8, 2008 3:04 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I like

I like the comparison of Manny Burriss to Ramon Martinez as a utility infielder—as far as quality may be concerned. I see Ramon as the better hitter; Manny as the better fielder and of course runner. Ramon’s bat made him a little less of a liability at the corners, but Manny’s defense plays well up the middle.

by sharksrog on Aug 8, 2008 9:09 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

It’s weird,
because he looks awful at 2nd.

Also, he always has an expression like he thinks he may have left the stove on.

you can't block the Bocock

by oldjacket on Aug 9, 2008 12:49 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I’ll share my numbers later if I get the chance, but it looks like in order for Burriss to play at a replacement level for 2B, he’d have to be a +20-25 (runs saved) defender at that position. And that’s likely to only barely break him over the replacement level threshold.

For reference, Utley was the top defensive 2B last year in the NL with a +16, so off the top of my head, I’m thinking it might be hard for Burriss to defend at a +20-25.

Keep in mind that you could probably reduce his defensive requirements (in terms of how many runs he needs to save to offset his weak bat) if I also added whatever value he was adding with his legs. Which I’d I have to make a best guess for that.

Maybe I’ll post this on my site. I’ll let you guys know when I make progress but from some early number crunching, it looks like for Burriss to play at replacement level, he’d have to be the best defensive 2B in the game by far.

by xanthan on Aug 8, 2008 1:53 PM PDT   0 recs

So, to Frank, yes I’m considering defense.

by xanthan on Aug 8, 2008 1:53 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Well, he’s going to have to improve with the bat to be a good option at either position.

I don’t know that it’s a big deal where he plays, in the grand scheme of things. The difference in average offensive production between second and short is something like six or seven runs. It’s not unusual - in fact, I suspect it’s pretty standard - for a player’s defensive prowess to increase by the same amount when he moves to the easier position.

The important thing is just to get Manny regular playing time. I’d rather he were doing that as the shortstop at Fresno, but this is the next best thing.

by Evan on Aug 8, 2008 2:19 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

OPS+

I am in no way convinced that the OPS+ is the best tool of measurement for a player like Burriss. (As an aside, the whole business of ballpark ‘adjustments’ seems dicey, but that is another topic).

While I do think OPS is a a good quick and dirty measure of the offensive force of a player, I do not think it is the best way to measure what Ochoa and Burriss might bring—as both, at best, would be ‘setting the table’ type players.

Let’s see what they can do with average, and OBP. If either or both do okay in this regard, then they can reasonably help the team given their defensive prowess.

by haverecords on Aug 8, 2008 2:34 PM PDT   0 recs

OPS+ isn’t the best tool of measurement for anyone. It leaves out too much, and incorrectly weights what it does include.

The only thing I find OPS+ to be handy for is comparing similar players from different eras—Bonds vs. Williams, Omar vs. Ozzie, that sort of thing.

by Evan on Aug 8, 2008 2:40 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

i’m with you on that.

by haverecords on Aug 8, 2008 2:47 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

By any metric he’s not a good hitter. Why split hairs over OPS+?

by xanthan on Aug 8, 2008 2:49 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

One more thing
While I do think OPS is a a good quick and dirty measure of the offensive force of a player, I do not think it is the best way to measure what Ochoa and Burriss might bring—as both, at best, would be ‘setting the table’ type players.

OPS correlates highly with scoring runs. This is good. If you want a linear runs weighted forumla, I’ll do his wOBA, I’m sure it’s equally as bad as his OPS+

And to “table set” you might want to have an OBP over .331.

I like Burriss, just not as much at 2B. He should be playing SS, in my opinion. It’s good that he’s getting play time, but I already added that caveat above.

But, I’ll say again that I’m glad that they are getting playing time and not Rich Aurilia or something.

by xanthan on Aug 8, 2008 2:57 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Not so much splitting hairs as trying to choose the proper means of analysis.

OPS does correlate highly with scoring runs, but it can be deceptive also. A player who generates a high OBP, but has no power would have mediocre OPS, but may in fact be a good player (and an excellent fit if the lineup in question has power in other positions)—more valuable that OPS would indicate, as having Snow and Kent at their hight indicates.

I’m with you on OBP over .331, but let’s see what he can do. If it ends up being reasonable to think Burriss might eventually get to .370+ OBP, then he might stick at 2nd. Let’s see what happens.

by haverecords on Aug 8, 2008 3:51 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

.370-

I think there is little chance Manny Burriss will achieve a .370 OBP. If he can do so, he can play the middle infield for me any time. I just don’t think he can pull it off.

Maybe if like Ochoa he began hitting right-handed exclusively. What I’m afraid some here may not be understanding is that Manny likely has been hitting over his head.

by sharksrog on Aug 8, 2008 9:12 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

maybe he has, maybe he hasn’t. He hasn’t looked as though he has (as Velez has at times, as Bocock did, has Bowker did last month). We’ll see.

I think there is a chance he might eventually get there (that is, certainly not this year). He is a slappy hitter with very good speed, and if betters his plate discipline (which really is something that could happen—he isn’t a lost cause in this regard) then it is reasonable to think he might be able to stay at .270-80, and with bettered plate discipline would also come more walks, perhaps enough to get up around a .370 OBP.

Now this isn’t to say he will do this, only that it is a realistic possibility.

by haverecords on Aug 8, 2008 10:18 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

May I respectfully disagree?

May I respectfully disagree with your thought that Manny Burriss hasn’t looked as if is hitting over his head? The last I looked, a third of Manny’s hits were infield hits or bunts, he was hitting very, very few balls deep - which means outfields will begin bunching him in more and more - and his line drive rate of 12.5% was about two-thirds the average for a major leaguer.

I do like that Manny has actually cut down his strikeout rate from the minor leagues, but that may be due in great part to his batting from his stronger right side a much higher percentage of the time than when he was playing everyday in the minors.

Very small sample and not very meaningful, but how would you say Manny is hitting since he began playing every day?

by sharksrog on Aug 9, 2008 1:10 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Sure, we may disagree.

Part of it is that I don’t think ‘how many balls hit deep’ or even line-drive rate are quite where to look when trying to assess whether a player is ‘in over their head’. SO rate combined with low contact and on base numbers would seem to indicate that to me.

I don’t think Manny will ever hit many balls deep, and hitting the ball deep is a measure of power than rather contact ability. They will bunch him, but likely not in an overly extreme fashion, as his speed would have to be respected. A slap hitter with speed can get by with a lesser line drive percentage, and should have a high number of infield hits (Does anyone know of a stat site which keeps track of infield hits?). Nevertheless, he does have to improve his line drive percentage, which could happen with increased plate discipline.

I’d say ‘Impatiently’. I wouldn’t say ‘in over his head’, though If he continues to hit about .200 I would certainly say he is-so we shall see ( he has mostly been hitting from the left side, which is by far his weakest, since playing every day-so it skews the small sample even more). He is definitely a candidate for going from the right, exclusively.

by haverecords on Aug 9, 2008 2:06 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

“it is reasonable to think he might be able to stay at .270-80, and with bettered plate discipline would also come more walks, perhaps enough to get up around a .370 OBP.”

Can you name one singles hitter in the majors who has a 100 point differential between his BA and OBP? I don’t think I can. Almost all hitters who have OBP’s 100+ points higher than their BA have enough power to draw a lot of “respect walks” from pitchers. Pitchers challenge little speedsters with SLG barely over .300 because the worst they’re going to do is hit a single anyway. If he bats eighth, he could get a some intentional walks to pump up his OBP artificially, but he still would likely need to hit .300+ to ever get his OBP up to .370.

"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK

by Josh from Hollywood on Aug 9, 2008 1:19 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

All of the points you made here are good ones. I can’t think of any present player, but there are a some players within the last 30 years that i’ll have to check stats on later.

What I am thinking with Burriss: if he improves his plate discipline and swing more judiciously, I suspect he’d get enough drive on the ball to be a legit gap and down the lines threat (if not a great or good threat), but perhaps enough that the pitcher can’t just lay it in. He would still be challenged, but not the pitcher sort of challenging.

Also, he has the potential of having excellent bat control, as a slap hitter. It would be a special skill if he could develop it (and I am certainly not suggesting that it is likely that he does develop it)—but should he develop it, and prove he can control the challenge pitches, it might be enough.

by haverecords on Aug 9, 2008 1:54 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

It's not just power

Burriss doesn’t seem to have the ability left-handed to make solid contact - not even occassionally. And this isn’t an issue with making the jump to the majors and being in over his head - i’ve noted the same thing about him after the few times I saw him play in low A ball. As a left-handed hitter he struggles (even in BP) to pull balls or even hit a routine line drive single. His BA left-handed seems to depend entirely on hitting balls so weakly he can beat them out.

As a starter, the league is going to put together a scouting report, and it’s hard to imagine that they won’t start at some point, to treat him essentially like a pitcher: no curves or changeups that can speed up his bat; nothing out over the plate or on the outside corner that he can poke at; don’t get cute; just bust him hard inside. And I’ve never seen anything from Burriss left-handed that suggests that won’t be a successful strategy on a permanent basis.

My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Aug 9, 2008 2:58 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, I don’ see him making it as a switch hitter. As I said above, I think he’s a strong candidate to ditch it and try from one side

by haverecords on Aug 9, 2008 3:26 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

“I can’t think of any present player, but there are a some players within the last 30 years that i’ll have to check stats on later.”

If you can’t find a present day hitter who fits your criteria, then you’re projecting Burriss to be, by definition, a once in a generation type of talent. Do you really see him as being that unique a hitter?

"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK

by Josh from Hollywood on Aug 9, 2008 3:05 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Well, first of all I’m not projecting in any strong sense, only saying that the things I have mentioned are reasonable (which is not the same thing as likely!) implicit ceiling projections. Nowhere have I said that I expect him to do this, only that it is possible.

Also, your use of ‘once in a generation type talent’ is extremely misleading. Such a statement usually connotations of being extremely good, but if you take that statement more literally, it need not connote good, average or even less. A player can have a relatively rare skill set and be garbage.
And just because I cannot think of one presently, doesn’t mean there aren’t—just that no one came off the top of my head (and these sorts of players aren’t all that memorable unless they are exceptional defensively and stick around a long time such as Vizquel and the Wizard (or Duane Kuiper before his injuries). There are doubtless a number of others that could be added to those 3 names: slap hitters who would up making it.

Also, a .370 OBP for him would be at the absolute height, and honestly I do not think that is likely-it is however of a reasonable possibility. More likely, at best-which means if he does do some of the things I mentioned above, an OBP of .350 seem fair projection. I will say again that such a projection is if the above mentioned skills develop, and those skills, while reasonably possible, are hardly guaranteed.

by haverecords on Aug 9, 2008 3:43 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

and I projecting best seasons, not lifetime numbers, btw.

by haverecords on Aug 9, 2008 3:44 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Anyone remember Kevin Frandsen??

I don’t even know what Bochy and Schulman are talking about. There is no way Burriss will beat Kevin Frandsen out at second base if Frandsen is healthy. Burriss might not even hit well enough to be a major league shortstop, let alone a second baseman. And who the hell even knows if Bochy will even be here to fill out a 2009 lineup card?? Frandsen will play second base next year, and Burriss and Ochoa can fight it out for shortstop, assuming Sabean doesn’t try to upgrade at either position. Ask Chad Pennington what he thinks about coaches who make predictions about next year’s lineup or even next week’s lineup, although I know it’s a different sport.

Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment

by rxmeister on Aug 8, 2008 4:07 PM PDT   0 recs

What I am thinking is Ochoa is auditioning to be the Giants Embodiment of Replacement Level to Play for ‘09. Replacing Joe Castle. Just a ‘hunch”.

Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!

by daveinexile on Aug 8, 2008 4:23 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I am right there w/ you Rx.

I just wonder if Bochy doesn’t think of Frandsen as more of a 3b for some reason. There is no question that Frandsen is a more productive hitter than Burriss will likely every become..

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Aug 8, 2008 4:35 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Ruben Rivera

I’m thinking that if the Giants put Kevin Frandsen at third and play him on the infield with John Bowker, Manny Burriss and Ivan Ochoa, they would have a Ruben Rivera-hitting infield.

You know, that type of hitting about which Jon Miller could say, “And that was the worst hitting in the history of the world!”

by sharksrog on Aug 8, 2008 9:15 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

It could also be that they are showcasing Ochoa,

as silly as that sounds. I thought the SS position was much stronger around the league than it is until I checked some of the stats. It could very well be that they are showcasing him and talking him and Burriss up the rest of this season so that they could be packaged in the offseason.

Meet my three little friends: Timmy, Dirty, and Cain

by Buck Henry on Aug 8, 2008 5:33 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Wish I could be optimistic about Frandsen, but you’re talking about a guy who was never a well-regarded prospect, hasn’t done well in his major-league trials, and has now lost a full year of crucial development time. He’ll be 27 next year, and I think it’s a real longshot that he’ll ever be a starter for any team.

by Evan on Aug 8, 2008 5:41 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Never a well regarded prospect?? He has a lifetime .327 average in the minors, tore up the Arizona Fall League, and hit .370 last September after finally getting a chance to play regularly. He hit .269 for the season which isn’t bad at all considering his earlier struggles, and he showed some pop. I don’t see how you can rate any second baseman we have seen this season as being even close to him. I think he will be a solid starting major league second baseman. Not elite, not an all star, but a solid player for years to come. Of course that’s assuming he returns at full strength from this injury.

Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment

by rxmeister on Aug 8, 2008 6:26 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

But doing well in the minors isn’t the same as being a well-regarded prospect. He was 12th round pick, he never made the top-prospect lists, the scouts didn’t like his “tools.” Guys like that just don’t get fair shots unless their timing is right or their numbers are overwhelming.

by Evan on Aug 8, 2008 7:13 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

+1

There’s a tendency on this site to try to scout these young Gints ourselves, from their minor-league stats and from what little we see of them. It’s fun. I don’t think we’re collectively very good at it.

Professional scouts, prospect mavens, front-office evaluators… none of those guys see anything in Frandsen (or really in any of our current crop of young hitters, besides Lewis, who’s not actually young). They see the same stats we see, and they still don’t think he’ll amount to anything. Are they all biased, ignorant, lazy and bad at their jobs? Or are we overly desperate to see potential in these guys, and projecting skills that aren’t there?

I think Frandsen is the best 2B prospect we have, and that it may well be worth giving him a shot next year. But the odds are that he won’t ever be a solid starting major league second baseman. People who know better than us almost universally agree that his skills won’t translate to success in the bigs, and at age 26, he hasn’t done much to make them look silly—even with his better second half, he was a bad player last year.

by onlxn on Aug 9, 2008 5:15 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

you make a decent point, but these so called experts are often wrong. How many times do you have to see it?? What round was Brian Wilson picked in again?? How many teams passed on Tim Lincecum?? Alot of fans on this board are always saying we should get prospects like Andy Marte and Ben Zobrist who have great minor league numbers, but have been just awful in the majors. How come we seem to love other team’s suspects, but hate our own actual prospects?? Nate Schierholtz is another example of this. I pointed out how well Kevin did in the minors, the fall league, and the majors last September especially. What does the guy have to do for you to think the scouts might be wrong here??

Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment

by rxmeister on Aug 9, 2008 5:49 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree, Mark

Kevin and Nate have done well, and still seem to get no respect. Amazing.

That’s not to say they will be All-Stars, but rather they’ll be solid (and inexpensive!) players to fill in around whatever stars we develop/acquire. And that’s the part we need to be worrying about.

Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!

by Lyle on Aug 9, 2008 8:47 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

you make a decent point, but these so called experts are often wrong.

Absolutely… anybody who projects the potential of baseball players is going to be a wrong a lot. But “these so called experts” are going to be right a lot more often than the collective McCoven brain trust. Can we agree on that?

What round was Brian Wilson picked in again??

The 24th. But I’m not talking about draft position… I’m talking about projection once these guys are actually playing minor-league ball. (This would also be a more salient point if Brian Wilson was a great, special player… the idea that he’s an elite reliever is more proof of this site’s tendency to overrate Giants, not a repudiation of the “so called experts”. He’s been decent, and there’s reason to be enthused, but he’s not a great reliever right now. I thought we all knew better than to fall in love with big save numbers.)

How many teams passed on Tim Lincecum??

Nine, for a variety of reasons. One team took Evan Longoria; another team took Kershaw; other teams took guys like Andrew Miller and Brandon Morrow, who are far behind Lincecum but could still excel. Billy Rowell could still be somebody. Other teams were trying to save money.

But the reason Lincecum slipped to tenth - which is still pretty damn high - is that teams worried if he’d hold up health-wise. The thinking on Lincecum was, pretty universally, “he’ll be great IF he can stay healthy.” The thinking on Frandsen, pretty universally, is “there’s no real reason to think this guy will ever be a good or even solid major leaguer.” Pretty big difference there.

Alot of fans on this board are always saying we should get prospects like Andy Marte and Ben Zobrist who have great minor league numbers, but have been just awful in the majors. How come we seem to love other team’s suspects, but hate our own actual prospects??

Because those fans aren’t falling in love with numbers. They’re falling in love with the idea that baseball people in the know see, or have seen, star potential in Marte and Zobrist. Nobody sees star potential in Frandsen. It has nothing to do with numbers… minor league numbers don’t mean much if they’re not accompanied by projection.

Nate Schierholtz is another example of this.

He absolutely is… he’s another guy who probably won’t be a good major leaguer. You can’t find a single baseball pundit - we’re talking about people who do this for a living, people who understand the game far better than any of us - who doesn’t think Nate Schierholtz is a AAAA player. To which the McCoven responds, “But he hits .300 in the minors, with power!” Yes, he does. They know that. They still don’t think he can hack it in the bigs, and I think they’re probably right.

I pointed out how well Kevin did in the minors, the fall league, and the majors last September especially. What does the guy have to do for you to think the scouts might be wrong here??

Frandsen did well in the minors, primarily by hitting for high averages. That skill usually doesn’t survive to the majors. He wasn’t very good in the majors last season, at age 25. Not awful—there are many players who start in the majors who are as bad as Kevin Frandsen was. But that doesn’t mean he was solid… he was solidly below-average. And, fall league? Really?

Look at it like this. The scouts say, “Kevin Frandsen doesn’t have much potential as a major leaguer.” Your response is, “He posted a .710 OPS at age 25.” Their response would be, “exactly.” He’s not young, and he was below average. Doesn’t that prove their point, not yours?

by onlxn on Aug 9, 2008 1:35 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

My only disagreement

Is sometimes I wonder what a guy has to do to convince people like yourself that he actually is legit. Take Pedro Feliz’s case. A sorta non-prospect, no one really thought he was great, etc…

But he’s been playing full time 3b for a ML team for the past 5 seasons in spite of this. At what point do people admit that he is a legitimate major leaguer? The Giants thought so, and the Phillies thought so. There are dozens of players in MLB that are in the exact same situation. Rewind the clock 6 years and we could all be having the exact same conversation about Pedro as we are now having about Frandsen.

Projections, scouting reports, general consensus etc is worth a lot – but no one ever got into the hall of fame because of projections and prospect status. Ultimately, the ONLY thing that matters is performance, and the former is only important in that it governs your opportunity to do so.. Frandsen, thusfar, has performed at a rate that would keep him afloat in the ML (especially on a team that doesn’t have a better option like the Giants). There is no reason to pull the plug on him until he fails to do so, regardless of what the projections might have been.

And as far as MiL numbers, They do mean something – and there are MiL projection systems that are designed to take MiL performance and translate that into projected ML performance – and those systems say Frandsen should be pretty okay @ 2b. That is a projection, based on performance, that contradicts what some of the other projections say. Which do you believe?

Frandsen OPS’ed .710, as you said – in limited PA’s last season. He had a stretch where he OPS’ed .906. It’s kinda like John Bowker – which is the real Frandsen? neither – the truth lies somewhere in between.

At what point does a guy like Frandsen convince you that he is legit, that his #’s are deserved and not fluky or otherwise dismissable? 1 year OPS over .750? 2 years? 3 years? When?

Even independent of this, Frandsen is by far and away the highest performing 2b we have in our system. He has outperformed the combination of Buriss/Velez/Denker/Etc at about every level, including MLB.

To have the 2b conversation w/o his name as the front runner really shows a “what have you done for me lately” frame of mind.

Frandsen really should be our 2b for the next 2-3 years. Will he be a great 2b? Probably not, but he also will probably be good enough to carry his own weight and let the team focus efforts on other positions.

Pretty much the same story w/ Fred Lewis and Nate, and MAYBE Bowker. (I hope)