Myself and my friend Chandler were talking about who is better and we have been at a stale-mate. So, I’m going to break down stats, age, injury issues, pitch quality, repertoire, etc. 

Tim Lincecum’s player page:
http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=453311
http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/linceti01.shtml

Felix Hernandez:
http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=433587
http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hernafe02.shtml

Age and Years in the Majors

Age:
Lincecum: 24
Hernandez: 22

Years in the Majors:
Lincecum: 2nd year (Played 2/3 of his first season)
Hernandez: 4th year (Played 1/3 of his first season)

Hernandez came into the league at age 19, far before he was ready. His stuff was ready, but he wasn’t ready mentally or physically. Hernandez didn’t have the stamina, injury resistance, or mindset of a major league pitcher when he first came up. He, like many young pitchers, succeeded in the beginning of his career due to lack of scouting reports and unfamiliarity, finishing 2005 with an ERA of 2.67. But in 2006, American League hitters figured him out, and Felix finished 2006 with an ERA of 4.52. Tim Lincecum as well came into the majors with quality pitches, but not quite ready mentally. Unlike Felix, he ended his first season, in 2007, with an ERA of 4.00, but has come back in his second year, vastly improved and tuned, fielding a current ERA of 2.68. In the past two seasons however, Felix has brought his ERA to 3.92 at the end of 2007, and currently is at 3.04. 

Repertoire and Pitch Quality

Tim Lincecum’s best pitches (fastball and curveball) are slightly more dominant than Felix’s, but Felix has a deeper quality in his repertoire. Lincecum has slowly been improving his changeup and if he can perfect it, he will be just as deep as Felix. They both top out around 101 with their fastball, but Lincecum has better movement on his fastball and generally averages around 2-3 MPH faster than Felix, especially since Felix tends to throw his two-seemer more often due to it’s superior movement from his 4-seemer. Felix has a wide-variety of good pitches, but none as dominant as Lincecum’s dynamic duo. Lincecum’s curveball and fastball, may be the filthiest duo of pitcher in the game right now.

Injury Issues

Everyone who hasn’t read Sports Illustrated’s article on Tim Lincecum still questions his durability. To the average eye, a 5’11 170 lb person throwing 101 MPH does not seem normal or good for the body. In fact, throwing a baseball is considered by many as the most violent act on the human body in sports. Yet, Tim Lincecum’s perfect, albeit odd-looking, mechanics have kept him out of health issues his entire career. He never comes to a stop in his motion, which keeps the momentum flowing through his entire windup, taking pressure off the arm. On the other hand, Felix Hernandez had to be placed on the 15-day DL earlier this season with an ankle injury. Both appear to have solid mechanics and neither should sustain any serious injuries throughout their respective careers.

Stats

See the 2nd links under each name at the top of the note for detailed stats. Lincecum currently (2008 season) has a better record, ERA, more Ks, more Ks/9 , less BB/9, better Whip, and less H/9. Tim is statiscally better in almost every category, but not by much. Felix has similar stats, but not quite as good as Lincecum’s. Lincecum has also been unfortunate enough to have the bullpen blow 4 wins for him, and Felix has been no luckier.


Some short stats:

2008:

Tim Lincecum: 12-3, 2.68 ERA, 175 Ks, through 157.7 innings.
Felix Hernandez: 7-7, 3.04 ERA, 127 Ks, through 136 innings.

Last 6 games:

Tim Lincecum: 2-2, 3.86 ERA, 45 Ks, through 42 innings.
Felix Hernandez: 1-2, 3.58 ERA, 36 Ks, through 32.7 innings.

We should also look at the quality of teams they play and how they fair against those teams. Lincecum clearly plays in an easier league and a much easier division, but that appears to be misleading. I looked at how well they preformed against the best hitting teams in their respective leagues. Texas, New York Yankees, Boston and Detroit for the AL and Cubs, St. Louis, Philly, and Colorado for the NL.

Hernandez in 9 games against those AL teams went 2-4 with a 3.53 ERA and 43 K’s.
Lincecum in 9 games against those NL teams went 6-1 with a 2.07 ERA and 65 K’s.

My Final Conclusion

I think both players are incredible pitchers with incredible futures, but with Tim Lincecum’s more sufficient progress, better stats, and his current contention for a Cy Young (in his 2nd year), I give Lincecum the edge.


Now, Chandler and I are both biased to a certain extent on this topic, so I would appreciate hearing other people’s opinions on the matter.

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