A Brief Historical Look at Lincecum

I was running through BB-Ref's awesome PI index this morning for fun and I came accross some interesting numbers on Tim Lincecum*. So, I thought I'd share them with McC.

*Note, this isn't a TIM IS BETTER THAN MATT post, so don't take it that way. Both are very good pitchers.

I love looking at historical numbers like this. I'm blown away by the amount of innings that guys like Christy Mathewson threw. Of course the baseball environment in which Mathewson played was radically different than it is today, or in any era, but throwing 390.2 innings in a season is cool to think about.

Tim Lincecum had another very, very solid performance. Lincecum’s final line was:

8 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 8 SO

Tim lowered his ERA to 2.68 and raised his ERA+ to 160. Among all major league pitchers with at least 140 innings pitched and ranked by ERA+, Tim is currently 4th. Only Cliff Lee, Danny Haren, and Carlos Zambrano have had better years. If the season ended right now, Linecum’s ERA+ would be good enough to place him 5th all-time since 1956 for Giants starters. Think about how amazing that is. Those four guys in front of him?

Cnt    Player    **ERA+**   IP  Year Age
+----+-----------+------+-----+----+---+
1 Jason Schmidt    179   207.2 2003  30
2 Juan Marichal    169   295.1 1965  27
3 Juan Marichal    168   299.2 1969  31
4 Juan Marichal    167   307.1 1966  28

If you ranked Giants pitchers since 1956 by ERA+ who were 24-years-old or younger and who threw at least 140 innings.

Cnt    Player      **ERA+** IP   Year Age
+----+------------+------+-----+----+---+
1 Tim Lincecum       160   157.2 2008  24
2 Bob Knepper        131   260   1978  24
3 Shawn Estes        130   201   1997  24
4 Mike McCormick     129   253   1960  21
5 Jim Barr           123   179   1972  24

Since 1956, Tim Lincecum is having the best season of any young Giants pitcher, ever. Bob Knepper went 17-11 in 1978. We’ve got a Shawn Estes sighting for his 1997 All-Star season. Mike McCormick and Jim Barr are also well known Giants pitchers. Let’s increase our range and go from 1876-2008 and look at the Giants franchise. Same parameters of innings pitched, age, and ranked by ERA+

Cnt    Player      **ERA+** IP   Year Age
+----+------------+------+-----+----+---+
1 Christy Mathewson  230   338.2 1905  24
2 Amos Rusie         189   444   1894  23
3 Johnny Antonelli   177   258.2 1954  24
4 Jeff Tesreau       173   243   1912  24
5 Tim Lincecum       160   157.2 2008  24
6 Hal Schumacher     148   258.2 1933  22
7 Christy Mathewson  147   366.1 1903  22
8 Amos Rusie         144   482   1893  22
9 Christy Mathewson  138   336   1901  20
10 Rube Marquard     134   277.2 1911  24

Christy Mathewson, greatest young Giants pitcher, ever? Lincecum’s having a good year, but I don’t think he’s going to catch Mathewson’s 230 ERA+ 1905 season. In fact, Mathewson makes this list 3 times. He’s also the youngest player in our top-10 of young greats. At the tender age of 20 Mathewson went 20-17 with a 2.41 ERA. Johnny Antonelli is an interesting player. He debuted in 1948 as an 18-year-old with the Boston Braves. In 1954, he was traded from the Milwaukee Braves along with Billy Klaus, Don Liddle, Ebba St. Claire — great baseball name — and cash to the New York Giants for Bobby Thompson and Sam Calderone. In that ‘54 season Antonelli went 21-7 with a 2.30 ERA. For those looking for Matt Cain, his 2007 season at age 22 places him 26th on this list.

Our list is rounded out with Amos Rusie, Jeff Tesreau, Hal Schumacher, and Rube Marquard (another great baseball name). Regardless of where Lincecum ends up in Giants history, it’s amazing how well he’s done in such a short time.