Who will be the first Giant to reach 10 HRs?
by tobias on Aug 5, 2008 8:40 PM PDT
76 comments
Which San Francisco Giant will be the first to reach 10 HRs this season?
It's a scintillating race; albeit one in which the contestants all seem to have forgotten where the finish line is. But eventually, one would think, someone will reach that rarefied air of double figures in home runs. Why is it so important that FanPosts be 75 words long? Beats me. I always thought that brevity was the soul of wit.
Who will it be?
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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I will go with my boy
Littered campgrounds, folding chairs. Feed Doritos to the bears.
by TheBigLeBowker on Aug 5, 2008 9:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Cain
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com and on it I make jokes about things.
by groug on Aug 5, 2008 9:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
# 3 ... AT BEST!!
Did I do that right?
That's all I can stands, I can't stands no more!
by tobias on Aug 5, 2008 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There is no doing that right.
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com and on it I make jokes about things.
by groug on Aug 5, 2008 10:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yoda would beg to differ
There is no trying that right, only doing it right.
Adoptive father of howtheyscored. The beatings will begin momentarily.
by Goofus on Aug 6, 2008 6:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was going to say this, but mine was going to go like this:
Last time we had a “who does it first” poll, I voted against Cain and he proved me wrong. Well, not this time!
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Aug 5, 2008 11:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If I was going to be serious, though, I would bet on Rowand.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Aug 6, 2008 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You have a lot of guts to take that stand.
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com and on it I make jokes about things.
by groug on Aug 6, 2008 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I eat my middle name is guts for breakfast for dinner.
-
I think I mangled that sufficiently.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Aug 6, 2008 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh man, I meant Rowand, but that was a pretty terrible misspelling.
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com and on it I make jokes about things.
by groug on Aug 6, 2008 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i originally voted for the no homer for the rest of the year
but i would non jokingly vote for lewis
proud father of the newly acquired Brandon Crawford..
by Azmanz on Aug 5, 2008 10:05 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I non-jokingly selected nobody!
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler
by JRPhillips on Aug 5, 2008 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love Fred Lewis
No homer
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
by delorean on Aug 5, 2008 10:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is it just me....
Or does Fred Lewis just make cool look cool?
It’s nice to have a few legit position players for once…who, you know…might have a future if they don’t forget how to hit over the winter.
it's always noonan somewhere
by sectionop92 on Aug 6, 2008 12:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fo sho!
I am going to say that in his new role as 3 or 5 hitter he will finish the year with 15HR. Call me crazy.
Also, bold prediction for 2009: Freddie hits 25HR 25 2b 15 3b and swipes 35 bags.
I don’t think this will happen… I fucking know this will happen.
I am Cameron Wood and this is my son and business partner CW Culberson.
by camwoody on Aug 6, 2008 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Legit position player"? Hmmm....
I certainly hope that time bears that out, but, uh, have you seen him play LF? He has yet to make a clean catch—even his catches rattle around in his glove. And then there are the times the ball rattles out of his glove. He has shown some promise, but he’s had enough starts that I would like to see SOME of that promise start turning into reality, and I am not seeing any improvement in his fielding.
I'm adopting a true Giant and an awe-inspring gamer: tk. "Atta babe."
by Mayor of 311 on Aug 6, 2008 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
I have seen dramatic improvement in his fielding. At the beginning of the season we thought he was going to be a disaster out there.
AFAIK, most defensive metrics have him rated as slightly above average. Add into this that he routinely gets to balls that other wouldnt, and I would hardly classify Lewis as a lacking defender this season.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Aug 6, 2008 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, our own predictions/fears don't serve as a valid baseline.
Thus, if he beats those, it is meaningless. We now have the reality, and that reality is that his glove work is objectively not good. I take you at your word that his defensive metrics are fine (though you don’t say you saw them yourself, and I’m not going to, either… though if you’re not going to, it’s a little puzzling why you’re chiming in at this point—your point was already made by the person to whom I was responding, so if you’re not adding…). But if that is true, then he is very lucky indeed that the ball stays in his glove, or that Rowand was once near enough to barehand a ball that popped out of Lewis’s glove. There’s no point going back and forth on the point—he either will or won’t turn out to be a good outfielder, but he has not yet.
I'm adopting a true Giant and an awe-inspring gamer: tk. "Atta babe."
by Mayor of 311 on Aug 6, 2008 5:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I did not mention specific fielding #'s
Because I don’t readily have access to them. Could I be misremembering? Certainly – hence the AFAIK.
I realize that he is a bit of a circus out there, but that doesn’t mean he is bad – just unconventional. He is extremely athletic and that can compensate for a lot of his “mistakes”, so to speak.
Yeah, the ball rattles around in his glove a little, and sometimes he looks borderline – but the guy gets to a lot of balls that others would not and doesn’t drop it very often (FP of .961 says that generally, when he makes a play on the ball – he plays it cleanly.) RF/g of 1.6 says that he gets to more balls than your average LF (1.48).
Could he stand to work on his fundamentals (catch it with two hands, son)? Sure. Is his defense so abhorrent as to negate his offensive production? Not even close.
He is a legit player, and RC/27 ranks him as the 28th best OF in the Major leagues. Considering each team needs 3 OF’s, that makes him a better player than a lot of other outfielders starting every day.
IMO, that makes him “legit”.
BTW, the construction of this sentence confuses me:
(though you don’t say you saw them yourself, and I’m not going to, either… though if you’re not going to, it’s a little puzzling why you’re chiming in at this point—your point was already made by the person to whom I was responding, so if you’re not adding…)
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Aug 6, 2008 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lewis is looking like he’s going to be a Kenny Lofton/Juan Pierre sort of outfielder. These guys drive you crazy when you watch them, but the fielding stats consistently show them to be quite good.
What they have in common, of course, is that they’re really fast. In the outfield, speed makes up for a lot of amateurish play.
by Evan on Aug 6, 2008 8:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lewis drops more balls than the infant ward at Kaiser.
-
Man, I had to stretch to get that one…
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Aug 6, 2008 10:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Given the "Dark Ages" we've seen....
In the black holes we call the eight other spots we can put a player besides the dirt mound with the white rubber stump, I’m not being too picky with a player like Lewis who produces hits, gets on base and makes things happen. I can settle for an average defender in the outfield. All I care about is clutch hits and making that speed hit the bases on a clip that makes the guy much better than what his glove says he will be in the field.
If the guy goes Mitch Williams on us in the outfield, then I’ll worry. Right now, the guy is proving to me he, Bowker and Rowand are three players we shouldn’t have to worry about for the next few years as this team should get noticeably better as the talent level builds up.
it's always noonan somewhere
by sectionop92 on Aug 6, 2008 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, yes, I agree... I'm just not saying Lewis has settled into that level yet.
I am eager (and a little anxious) to see what his sophomore year looks like. I have my fingers crossed that he will continue to be more or less what we have seen this year in terms of production, and a Lofton/Pierre type (as Evan mentions, above) would be great with me. IF…
I'm adopting a true Giant and an awe-inspring gamer: tk. "Atta babe."
by Mayor of 311 on Aug 6, 2008 9:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would like to see him protect with two strikes more
But only if it does not cut into his walks too much.
Other than that, I am happy with him.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Aug 7, 2008 7:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rowand has shown some warning track power in the last couple of days, so I’ll say he accidentally hits one in Houston next week.
by rightcenterfielder on Aug 5, 2008 10:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Trivia: Last Giants team without a player breaking the vaunted 15 HR mark?
by mxmob33 on Aug 5, 2008 10:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
without looking...
I’m thinking ‘75?
That's all I can stands, I can't stands no more!
by tobias on Aug 5, 2008 10:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Top HR hitter that year...
Gary Matthews with 12.
That's all I can stands, I can't stands no more!
by tobias on Aug 5, 2008 10:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Giants are currently on a pace to hit 89 HRs
The last team to fail to hit 100 in a full season was the 1993 expansion Florida Marlins (led by Orestes Destrade with 20!). Last team to fail to hit 90 was the immortally awful hitting ‘92 Dodgers with 72 (Eric Karros had 20 of ‘em, next highest on the team were Mitch Webster and Dave Hansen with 6).
Last Giants team to finish last in the league in HRs: 1900. They hit 23 that year, led by Charlie Hickman with 9.
My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.
by Roger on Aug 6, 2008 6:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, the 1995 Phillies were the last team to fail to hit 100 HR’s or more in a season. I wrote about it in February.
Heading back to my question of: "Will the Giants hit less than 100 total home runs in ‘08?" The last team that played a full season of baseball, 1994 doesn’t count for what we’re discussing here, and failed to hit 100+ HR’s was the 1995 Phillies. The ‘95 Phillies had a combined 94 home runs which placed them dead last in the National League in homers. The team finished 2nd in the NL East with a record of 69-75. In 1995 the NL East was terrible, except for the World Champion Braves, and out of 5 teams in the division, 4 of them finished under .500. The Phillies had three players that tied for the team lead in home runs with 11 — future Giant Charlie Hayes, Greg Jefferries, and Mark Whiten all hit 11.
Three players to tie with 11 HR’s? Sounds a lot like the ‘08 Giants. Bowker, Rowand, and maybe Lewis or Molina could hit 11 this year. I know BP had Rowand predicted to hit 14 and I think Molina was at 12. PECOTA had the team under 100 HR’s I believe.
Check it out, even with Barry for the last couple of years, the Giants have really lacked HR power.
The 2000-2003 teams really could hit the hell out of a baseball.
by xanthan on Aug 6, 2008 7:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Er, I meant the 2000-2002 teams. 2003 was above average but nothing like the 00-02 teams.
by xanthan on Aug 6, 2008 7:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, wow, looking at some of the PECOTA projections, they had Ort down for 12 HR’s. That is of course, with over 400 plate appearances. Instead, Ort got 73 PA’s this year and was never seen from again.
I still think how amazed I was when the Giants were trying to sell Ort as the “power hitting 1B of ‘08!”.
by xanthan on Aug 6, 2008 7:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You know, now that I think about it, you’re right Roger. I forgot when I wrote that original article that 1995 was a shortened season, too.
Still the point stands: Giants bad.
by xanthan on Aug 6, 2008 7:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another point to be drawn from your graph: when we’re well above the NL average in HRs (1993; 2000-2002): Giants good!
My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.
by Roger on Aug 6, 2008 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dunno, Roger, Sabes didn’t say anything about Speed and Defense and Offense.
by xanthan on Aug 6, 2008 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Incidentally, Charlie Hayes was not only a future Giant but a former Giant as well. He was part of the trade that brought Steve Bedrosian to the Giants in 1989. I believe Dennis Cook and Terry Mulholland were the guys traded along with Hayes.
by jcb9 on Aug 6, 2008 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
and we loved terry too much as well
we resigned him in 1995, let him go after the year and then picked him off waivers in 1997.
are there any other recent players we’ve acquired at least 3 times (draft, trade, waiver wire???)
Dodgers fans eat their young.
by redhornet78 on Aug 6, 2008 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good call, jcb9.
I was too young to remember Hayes’ first stint with the Giants and I remember him more for his 98-99 seasons.
by xanthan on Aug 6, 2008 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that would be awesome
proud father of the newly acquired Brandon Crawford..
by Azmanz on Aug 5, 2008 11:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ooh, I like what rotoreuter is selling
Sign me up!
¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!
by hairball on Aug 6, 2008 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If not for Castillo
Scott McClain…or Justin Leone.
by koel on Aug 6, 2008 6:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Paul of the Sacred Valley.
Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.
by S.F. Giangst on Aug 6, 2008 6:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I voted for Bowker, but if he continues to sit against lefties, it could very well be Fred Lewis. Aaron Rowand’s lack of power has amazed me. I knew it would drop with the change in ballparks, but he did hit 10 homeruns on the road alone last year, so 9 homeruns for the season at this point is just amazingly bad. Molina would probably have more homeruns if the big headed idiot in the dugout was aware that you have to rest your catcher more than you rest your other players. You would think he would know better as an ex-catcher, but since he never played himself he probably imagined he could play 150 games without getting tired.
Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment
by rxmeister on Aug 6, 2008 8:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
But it’s not just the ballpark, Rowand has also played in extraordinarily good offensive lineups, which has many residual benefits as well. Being a member of a lineup that consistently puts lots of runners on base, and scores lots of runs will, over the course of the season, dramatically increase a players ABs against a) pitchers in the stretch; b) tired pitchers with high pitch counts (both on the game and within an inning); and the creme de la creme, the soft underbelly of opponents long relief, those 12th and 13th members of the staff. All of which are situations where pitchers tend to pitch worse (or in the case of “c”, simply are worst).
It doesn’t seem absurd to me that being in a lineup that scores 6 runs a game (‘07 Phils) could increase your #ABs in such situations by 50-100 over the course of a year vs. playiing in a lineup like the Giants. You should get a corresponding increase in production from those ABs. Somebody much smarter than me has probably run numbers on this kind of thing.
My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.
by Roger on Aug 6, 2008 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But remember, Rowand’s power last year was an outlier.
I calculated this out over on lefty’s site the other day. In his career, Rowand has averaged 17.3 home runs per 162 games, while playing in home parks that boost right-hander’s home run totals by 25 to 30 percent. That means his “true” career home-run rate is right around 15 per 162 games.
This year he now has 10 hr in 108 games—which projects out to precisely 15 per 162 games. He’s right where he’s supposed to be.
by Evan on Aug 6, 2008 8:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
To be Honest
I’m not sure that ATT is really that hard to hit a HR in for right handers. It’s a fairly short hop to the bleachers.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Aug 7, 2008 7:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fernando Tatis already has 9 homeruns this year, how pathetic is that?
I voted for Bowker, but I am at the point where I just want to see ANYONE get into double digits.
Adopted Giant Brian Wilson: One of the few reasons to watch this year.
by sfgreg on Aug 6, 2008 9:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I’m pretty sure more than half of those were against us though.
by Natto on Aug 6, 2008 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which is why Sabean will be trading Romo and Matos for Tatis in the off-season. Just you watch.
Your 2011 SF Giants: the 2008 Augusta Greenjackets!
by Lyle on Aug 6, 2008 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’s cleverly prevented himself from doing htat by already DFAing Romo.
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com and on it I make jokes about things.
by groug on Aug 6, 2008 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I voted for no Giant. I realize that’s very unlikely, but it sure feels like it’ll happen at the moment. Somewhat less so after Lewis’s shot last night.
by jcb9 on Aug 6, 2008 9:39 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It’ll be Lewis. He’s got the best plate discipline of anyone on the team, so he’s most likely to see (and turn on) a fastball right in his wheelhouse.
No, my Crazy Crab bobblehead is not for sale.
by Kitspool on Aug 6, 2008 9:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Isn’t it funny to be speaking highly of Lewis’ plate discipline?
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Aug 6, 2008 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why?
OBP has always been his highest performance stat by far coming up through the minors.
My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.
by Roger on Aug 6, 2008 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
OBP isn’t the end all and be all of plate discipline. He still struck out a lot despite taking a lot of walks for someone who has the high OBP. IIRC a knock against him was that he wasn’t patient enough at the plate before this season. Baseball America said he had the best strike zone perception of Giants minor leaguers in 2004 so yeah, he’s always had the ability. The results were mixed, however.
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Aug 6, 2008 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course some moron in the Giants front office once made the notorious comment that he drew 80-some walks one year in the minors “by accident” in desparaging his approach. I’d say Freddy is, in his own way, an Adam Dunn kind of hitter when it comes to plate discipline. He’s very disciplined but he also has significant holes/flaws in his swing (particularly with breaking pitches and of course LHP). The Ks are the result of the latter, not a problem with the former, and in Freddie’s case you get a lot of looking Ks because he’s not swinging at pitches he knows he can’t do anything with.
Frankly, to me this whole, let’s move him down in the order and he’ll stop worrying about working counts and start swinging more freely is just Item #6020 in the Why Sabean Just Doesn’t Get It file.
My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.
by Roger on Aug 6, 2008 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m with you for sure on moving him into the heart of the lineup.
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Aug 6, 2008 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
On the money.
Frankly, to me this whole, let’s move him down in the order and he’ll stop worrying about working counts and start swinging more freely is just Item #6020 in the Why Sabean Just Doesn’t Get It file.
+109,000,000!
That's all I can stands, I can't stands no more!
by tobias on Aug 6, 2008 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
As of 1:02 PST, we have a winner! Aaron Rowand! Congratulations buddy! You’ve won yourself a place on a below .500 team! Crap. Someone just beat me to it.
-D
by dw4848 on Aug 6, 2008 1:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I guess we have our answer
Rowand Baby!
"The Wrong Kid Died"
by GhostofRoyceClayton on Aug 6, 2008 1:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Should've put up this poll a long time ago...
That's all I can stands, I can't stands no more!
by tobias on Aug 6, 2008 1:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think you should start some new polls.
When will Jose Castillo and Dave Roberts be DFA’d?
Or, who will be the next Giants GM to be fired?
Bengie Molina: stretching doubles into singles since 1998.
by jasomack on Aug 6, 2008 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I lol'd...
I also like, “When will the SF Giants win their first World Series?”
That's all I can stands, I can't stands no more!
by tobias on Aug 6, 2008 8:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Got it narrowed down to Babe Bowker, BMoney, Rowand and Lewis
Gonna go with Rowand
by wilriv21 on Aug 6, 2008 8:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
timestap owns you.
Eugeniooooooo!!!!
by FairweatherFan on Aug 7, 2008 7:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The dictionary owns you.
Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.
by S.F. Giangst on Aug 7, 2008 7:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
like a fish's sphincter.
Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.
by S.F. Giangst on Aug 7, 2008 8:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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