Argument for trading Matt Cain
by Threepwood XX on Aug 20, 2008 11:40 AM PDT
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PrintTo quote Billy Beane, “If you are going to rebuild you don’t just need good players, you need lots of good players.” The Giants problem is they have a few good players coming down the pipeline like Villalona and Posey, but a lot of them wont be in the big leagues until 2010 at the earliest, and even then it will take a couple years of playing time to get good production out of them. And when they do finally make the show there aren’t enough of them coming to fill all the holes the Giants have from years of mortgaging their future on ill-advised trades and keeping veterans with value (like Schmidt) even though the Giants had no hope of contending.
What the Giants really need to do to get better faster is trade Matt Cain.
Also, there are just WAY too many holes in the roster to fill via free agency (an outfield of average bats gets you no further then .500), and even if you bring in a free agent like Teixeira before you know what holes your system has, you risk blocking people like Villalona or hurting your ability to sign players like Lincecum long term in the future due to too much money tied up in Zito like contracts.
What the Giants need to do is get as many good young players as possible, and their best trading chip is Matt Cain. He’s got the potential to be a poor man’s ace or a really good #2 pitcher, his cheap long term contract give him added value and is being waisted on this rebuilding team, and the Giants would be dealing from a position of organizational strength with tons of good prospects like Alderson and Bumgarner waiting to take Cain's place.
When Beane traded Dan Haren, not only did he get a future ace in Brett Anderson, but get got two more middle of the rotation starters in Smith and Eveland, a future all-star center/right fielder in Carlos Gonzalez, one of the best power prospects in the minors in Chris Carter, and an Aaron Rowand clone in Cunningham.
That’s the kind of massive talent infusion the Giants need to their system if they want to compete in 2010, and the only guy with the kind of value to get that haul (and can be replaced with players already in the system) is Matt Cain.
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It's hard to argue.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Aug 20, 2008 11:45 AM PDT reply actions
I am, but I also folow the Giants
It was something I was talking to a friend of mine about. Sorry, I hadn’t noticed it had been beaten to death around here, I just wanted to see what people on this board thought about it.
No need to start banning people for taking an interest in your team, that’s how you loose fans.
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
by Threepwood XX on Aug 20, 2008 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Stating the obvious
The A’s are not the Giants though. The A’s are great for a couple of years and then suck for a couple of years. The Giants are in full rebuilding mode. The Gigantes are set on rebuilding for a couple of years, 08 and 09 and coming through with big years in the 2010-2020 years. In 2010 I thnk Cain is in the last arb year. By then you should have timmy, Madbum, Dirty, Alderson, and zito. You can trade Cain then if you need to.
by Big Daddy J on Aug 20, 2008 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Sorry
If this fan post really adds nothing new to the conversation, I can just delete it if that would make the forum police feel better….
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
by Threepwood XX on Aug 20, 2008 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions
good point
the A’s have much tighter budgetary restrictions than the Giants do. Thus, the Giants can afford to supplement their rebuilding with some targeted free agent signings and don’t need to develop all 25 guys through the minors.
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Aug 20, 2008 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Im not in favor
of dealing matt, but in the event we do want to go this route. I think we would have to identify a farm system that has that sort of rich bounty of prospects that is in need of the pitching. I cant think of many teams off the top of my head that would give what ARIZONA gave up, or even have the talent in their system that Arizona gave up.
Cain is Able ...
Atlanta
but they wouldn’t trade most of their top guys (i.e. Heyward, Schaefer, Gorkys Hernandez, Jones, Teheran, Hanson, Rohrbrough, Jeff Locke or Lillibridge)
or would they?
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
Frankly I view Atl farm with a bit a suspicion. Kind like Giants farm Pitchers circa 2000 was buy others. I would not rule out talking with them just the recent track record of position players along with a new Gm is kind got me skeptical of them and what they would trade.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
value and is being waisted on this rebuilding team, and the Giants would be dealing from a position of organizational strength with tons of good prospects like Alderson and Bumgarner waiting to take Cain’s place.
I think our depth is overstated, Bumgarner and Alderson are fantastic prospects but 2-3 levels away from the majors.
That way I see it is that the Giants are set with Cain and Lincecum. Sanchez could be very good if his shoulder is fine, which it sounds like it’s a minor injury at this point. Zito will not add any stability to the rotation. Correia is having problems and I was never high on him to start with. Lowry might never pitch again. Hennessey? Palmer? Misch?
I’m not seeing the depth. Our staff is above average this year, but we don’t have the spare pieces in my opinion to trade parts of it, yet.
I also recent did a post on my site about valuing the starters, for those that don’t read BCB, here’s what I came up with.
Cain is valued at around $15M right now. Even with his pay bump next year, going to $2.3M I believe, if he remains around a 3-win pitcher, he’s really valuable. The Giants could trade him, but they’d want to get similar value in return and with my concerns about pitching depth, I lean towards no right now. But I’m willing to listen to other opinions.
That’s the kind of massive talent infusion the Giants need to their system if they want to compete in 2010, and the only guy with the kind of value to get that haul (and can be replaced with players already in the system) is Matt Cain.
And, the Giants have nobody to replace Cain (a 3-win pitcher) with. No body. I might disagree with that statement the most.
When you put it in chart form, that Zito contract is even more of a kick in the shorts.
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
You know what? I’m going to be the first to say it, and I don’t care, but I’m really not a fan of that contract. It was really made with poor foresight.
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
You know what’s even more amazing? That the Giants might have the best (+$24.4M) and worst (-$14.17M) values in baseball on the same roster in Lincecum and Zito.
That’s almost impressive.
WAR!
What is it good for?
No, really. What is it?
WAR
better than WARP
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/how_to_calculate_war/
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
It ain't nothin' but a heart-breaker
Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below.500
by S.F. Giangst on Aug 21, 2008 6:57 AM PDT up reply actions
This is a bold, outside-the-box idea and I’m very disappointed that no one has brought it up until now.
i've thought of it....
but i didn’t wanna get my mom’s basement burned down
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
at least spell “argument” correctly.
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Aug 20, 2008 12:12 PM PDT reply actions
Any player is avaliable for the right offer
It just needs to be an incredible offer. Really, unbelievably incredible
www.wazzel.com (prove your sports knowledge if you can)
And to sweeten the deal, we’ll send FP Santangelo along with Cain.
Like Barry Zito, I'm mildly half-OK.
And a Papa to be named later?
www.wazzel.com (prove your sports knowledge if you can)
by NeifiChicken on Aug 20, 2008 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Is it later enough to say Greg?
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Aug 20, 2008 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Cain's value
I don’t think it has peaked yet. I’d wait until he gets a bit closer to free agency before even entertaining a trade. Any trade of Cain would have to return an uber stud player.
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Aug 20, 2008 12:21 PM PDT reply actions
Stop already...
with this trade Cain talk. Yes you have every right to write what you want and I don’t have to read these inane comments and suggestions, but I was under the assumption that when one posts a comment they have some knowledge of the sport, in this case baseball. There are some who already are suggesting that the FO can trade Pablo and he hasn’t even been here but for a few at bats. And who are they going to trade him for…blah blah blah…
good god people get a life!
Beane would trade Lincecum before Cain
see the Dan Haren and Tim Hudson trades as examples. He trades his best pitchers that command the most/best prospects. So why are we even talk about a Cain trade, we should talk about a Lincecum trade. Think about all the prospects we could get for Timmy…
by the way, i would never trade either
What's with all the balls?
I saw a cornball earlier, and now you- sheesh!
¿Julio is tourist in San Francisco? Harper's Bizarre!
And a seriously niche version of paintball.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Aug 20, 2008 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Small, but devoted.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Aug 20, 2008 3:29 PM PDT up reply actions
DON'T MAKE ME HATE YOU
oh, and watch out for sharksrog
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Aug 20, 2008 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions
It’s an idea that has legs, but this is Brian Sabean we’re talking about. I wouldn’t trust him to move Cain in a shrewd deal further than I can throw a truck.
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Aug 20, 2008 1:45 PM PDT reply actions
I wouldn’t even trust him to move Cain in a shrew deal, which is originally how i read that.
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
When Sabean tried to acquire hamsters for his kids, he ended up with a starved wolverine.
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Aug 20, 2008 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions
I wish Sabean was my dad
I’d much rather have a wolverine than some stupid hampster.
he might be. sometimes he just says fuck work and parties. you might be here because of that.
Rafael Rodriguez: Pretty young!
Before or after it eats your face?
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Aug 20, 2008 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions
I would train it to eat other people’s faces. Like say Barry Zito’s. If it attacks Randy Johnson’s face I wonder if that would actually be an improvement? It could be like a new version of that reality show, The Swan.
i like dramatic hamsters better.
Play Stonehenge!!!
by The Enchanter on Aug 20, 2008 8:38 PM PDT up reply actions
what are you talking about?
we could move Cain + prospects and get Alex Rios!!!!
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Aug 20, 2008 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Trade packets
Seems the most sensible thing to do is to put Cain, Sanchez, Madbum, and Alderson all out on the market and see what the best offer is for any of them. It should be all about the trade balance. I think it’s silly to limit yourself to a single player to offer if you sit down with another GM.
"[Greg] Vaughn is in a funk so deep, George Clinton wearing a miner's helmet couldn't find him."
- Jim Baker, ESPN.com, May 2002
That’s actually a bad idea. As soon as you announce your putting a guy on the trade market I think it diminishes their value. Especially if they are extremely valuable entities. Ideally you should have people coming to you asking you if you’d be interested in trading your assets. You don’t take your assets to the trash heap and say hey what can I get if I recycle these here?
potentially diminishes
If there is heavy interest in Cain (as there very well should be) from multiple teams that is one way to drive up the price. You just need to be coy with how you put them on the market
www.wazzel.com (prove your sports knowledge if you can)
by NeifiChicken on Aug 20, 2008 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Be coy
Yeah, I think trade value only diminishes when you’re determined to trade someone. If you’re just running it up the flagpole and don’t have to trade, you can get the kind of bounty that Beane’s been getting recently.
Granted, prospect blockbusters are rare, and Sabean may well not be the guy to do it, but we all know big minor league names we’d trade one of ours for. Let’s face it, the Giants need to get some long-term sticks somehow.
"[Greg] Vaughn is in a funk so deep, George Clinton wearing a miner's helmet couldn't find him."
- Jim Baker, ESPN.com, May 2002
what you say
“No one is untouchable. Any of our players can be wrought… with the right price.”
But more eloquently
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
ok then what Gm is going to offer even half value in developed talent on talented A ball pitcher?
so that rules out Madbum & Alderson.
If you move Cain, Tim or ( to a lesser degree) Sanchez who takes their spot on the 25 man?
Thirdly when was the last time Sabean traded for a prospect? Not just a prospect of even the deal out but as a major part of the trade?
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
when he traded Ray.....
hahhahaha….
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
or Sweeny?
Don’t get me wrong I like Travis D. Just don’t try and tell me he was aquired with the firm idea he would be manning and holding second base for several years at a good level. And frankly thats the kind of commitment a Gm would need to make the type of trade offerred above.
Ivan Ochoa - Heir to the legacy of Rob Andrews & Rikkert Faneyte!
And when he traded Morris...
…for hot prospect Rajheeheehee
…for Rajaisnicker
…okay, I can’t keep a straight face.
Like Barry Zito, I'm mildly half-OK.
Wrong time
In many ways. The pendulum has swung to GMs now overvaluing prospects. As I think you might be overvaluing the prospects received in the Haren trade. Not all those prospects will reach their potential. Look at how the Yankees wouldn’t trade Hughes or Kennedy for Johann Santana. The Haren trade seems like an exception to the trend in MLB right now. And as Nostocks points out, the value of Cain is still on the way up.
I am not totally against trading Cain, but I would want someone like a Hanley Ramirez for him, and I just don’t see something like that happening.
The Haren trade still looks good to me
Gonzalez and Anderson are pretty good prospects and Smith and Eveland (although the latter ended poorly) looked like they could be productive in the bigs this year.
That being said, I’d want a 3rd Gonzalez/Anderson type prospect added before I thought about moving Cain, which really shouldn’t happen anyway
www.wazzel.com (prove your sports knowledge if you can)
by NeifiChicken on Aug 20, 2008 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Here's what BA said about Anderson
“… profiles as a middle-of-the-rotation innings-eater.” I wouldn’t trade Haren where one of the major pieces is potentially a middle of rotation guy.
And Gonzalez, he was a 21 year old in AA, which is young-ish, but it was not like he dominated there, hitting .806 OPS there. Don’t know how Southern League compares to Eastern League but Bowker .886 in the EL and he barely made the Top 10 in OPS, if I remember right.
OK, MiLB Splits calculates this as his MLE for 2007 and 2008:
2007: .236/.282/.365/.647
2008: .248/.309/.348/.657
Which shows that Gonzalez probably has a lot of work to do before he becomes ready for the majors, unless he is one of those who get a lift when they make the majors because they were kind of slacking previously.
Just because these guys were Arizona’s best prospects don’t mean diddly because their best had already moved up quickly (Drew and Upton) and somebody has to make their Top 10 (much like the Giants during the 1990’s and early 2000’s until Cain made the scene).
This trade seems more and more like when the A’s traded Vida Blue to us for a pocketful of prospects/youngsters who weren’t really that good but at least he got a huge haul for Blue. Except that Haren, I think, was better, or at least on a better career trajectory, at the time of the trade than Blue was.
Adoptive parental unit of Kevin "Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Aug 20, 2008 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Anderson’s year in A+ this year: 9.73 K/9 to 2.19 BB/9 (4.44 K/BB)
at AA: 10.44 K/9 to 2.88 BB/9 (3.63 K/BB)
All at age 20 and left handed. He is 18 months older than Bumgarner and those numbers are probably where Bumgarner will be in two years. In fact, if Bumgarner is putting up those numbers in AA by 2010 I think we will all be quite happy and singing his praises.
You’re kidding yourself if you downplay Anderson, who looks to have an extremely bright future.
Carlos Gonzalez might be a tad overrated, but he’s always been very young for his levels and BA must like him enough if they deemed him worthy of a coverspot. Let’s also not discount defense, where from what I’ve heard Gonzalez is quite special
www.wazzel.com (prove your sports knowledge if you can)
by NeifiChicken on Aug 20, 2008 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes but
Many question whether Gonzalez has a desire to play baseball. He supposedly has a very poor work ethic. I think it’s unlikely he ever comes close to his ceiling.
I agree he is downplaying Anderson, but Anderson is seen as a very safe prospect, much like Alderson in that he was very advanced coming out of High School. I think it’s possible he becomes an ace, but its more likely he is a #3 or #2 starter. Which obviously is still very good. Than again Danny Haren pretty much exceeded expectations as a mid-rotation guy and has become an ace.
Hanley Ramirez got the same complaints in the minors wrt work ethic
That one turned out alright I think.
Also its only half as many innings as other CF this year but Gonzalez’s RZR would lead all CF.
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wow, you disappoint me! The only reason I clicked on this thread was to see where it got hijacked to.
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Last time I vomited it was pretty epic. I flew Southwest from SFO to Phoenix last November to cover some Arizona Fall League games. I’m the sort of person who obsesses over things like schedules and itineraries and that to make sure I have all my times and dates and rules down cold. So when I arrived at the gate, stressed, dead-assed tired, and juggling a laptop, backpack, and venti (very hot) latte and saw that our flight was making a stop in San Diego, I was pissed. I get bad motion sickness on takeoffs and landings (as TK can attest to) so adding an unannounced stop to my flight meant more chances for me to hurl.
So I yelled at the clerk lady thing at the counter and she insisted all passengers were told of this DESPITE IT NOT SAYING THAT ON THE TRAVEL ITINERARY I PRINTED OUT THAT MORNING BEFORE I LEFT. After a while I said fuck it, whatever, took a handful of Dramamine, and stewed on the flight down to the desert.
On the way back, they pulled the San Diego shit again! This time I was so angry I just found the nearest lounge to my gate and pounded double shot vodkas…four double shots later I wobbled over to the gate to board the plane, and I was giddy. Very very giddy. After we took off I was barfy. Very very barfy. I puked in the lavatory sink, which was especially foul because of all the half-digested vodka in there.
Stewardess was nice though. She brought me a ginger ale to settle my stomach and kept asking me if I was okay.
Then the bastard airline lost my luggage on the connecting flight. Good god. If I didn’t have such a kickass time in Arizona I would classify it as the worst trip ever.
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Aug 20, 2008 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions
No, it was more like “blarblehurfff…”
"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Aug 20, 2008 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions
I take it you’re not an afficionado of the game of cumball.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Aug 20, 2008 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions
No trades!!
I don’t fucking follow these guys every night in the minor leagues for years to see them traded off to another team. I also think the Giants have enough on the present roster and in the minors to field a contending team in a couple of years. No trades necessary. Possibly a couple of FA signings, but trading away our kids is not only depressing, but something we shouldn’t even consider.
Brian Sabean's new dad: Firm believer in corporal punishment
Who hears that WAH-mbulance coming?
Play Stonehenge!!!
by The Enchanter on Aug 20, 2008 8:41 PM PDT up reply actions
MATT CAIN SHOULD BE TRADED!!!!!
HE CAN’T EVEN WIN A GAME WHEN HE LEAVES WITH A WIN!!! HE SUCKS!!!!!! HE NEEDS TO BE PUT ON TEH TRADINGBLCOK RIGHT NOW!!!!!
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