Firemen

by sharksrog on Aug 2, 2008 9:31 AM PDT Comment 24 comments

Before there were closers, there were firemen. Of course there were -- and remain -- arsonists such as Tyler Walker and Jack Taschner, but that is why firemen are needed.

So what is the difference between a closer and a fireman? The closer pitches the final inning, hopefully mopping up the affair in a positive manner. The fireman comes in when things are dangerous, puts out the fire, and keeps the game safe until it is over.

Obviously the Giants chose to use Brian Wilson as the closer in Tim Lincecum's last two starts -- but since he was going to come in after arsonists Walker a week ago and Taschner last night, he didn't get the chance.

The answer, of course, is that Brian should have been used as a fireman, entering the game in the eighth inning when things could get hot, and finished out the game. Would he have a league-leading 29 saves if he were used in this manner? Probably not. Would he have made a bigger contribution to Giants' wins? Almost certainly.

The save rule has distorted how a team's best relievers are used. The object of the game has been perniciously distorted. Back in the days of the fireman, the object was to win the game. Now the object seems to be to get the closer as many saves as possible.

So the closer is used for the ninth inning -- even if the difference is three runs. Teams score three runs or more only once in 16 innings. Does it make more sense to bring in your best pitcher into a situation in which the average pitcher will still allow your team to win more than 15 out of 16 times?

Or would it make more sense to bring in that great reliever into a one-run game when the opponents have the bases loaded with no one out and their cleanup hitter at the plate? Even if the game is an inning that is earlier than the ninth?

Should a team's best reliever be brought in only in one-inning save situations and in some games just to keep him from getting rusty since there haven't been any save situations? Or would it be better to bring him in earlier in a game, when the situation is the most dangerous but when he might have to pitch more than an inning to earn the save?

In other words, would it be better to use a combination of arsonists and a closer to hope to win a game -- or would it be better to use a fireman to put the fire out, or possibly even preventing the fire from developing, say to begin the eighth inning of a one-run game?

As Yogi the Berra always says, only you can prevent baseball fires.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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My favorite strategy is the one most recently used by the Tigers and the Indians. Use the grizzled veteran in the 9th inning, 3-run situations (Todd Jones, Joe Borowski), and use your less popular, BETTER relievers during the high-leverage situations (Zumaya, Rodney, Betancourt).

You win more games, but you also placate the local media who crave the poetry of the lunch-pail elder-statesman closer.

by rotorueter on Aug 2, 2008 10:14 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Too smart

Clearly you’re far too smart and clever to manage. :)

by sharksrog on Aug 2, 2008 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

So what should the Giants be doing? Do you think Brian Wilson is our best reliever? (I’m not so sure that’s the case)

by rotorueter on Aug 2, 2008 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Brian

Brian is always exciting, but I think his biggest problem may be that he is being misused by Bochy. And I’m not even talking about the closer/fireman thing.

Brian’s ERA when he pitches at least every third day is just over two. When he pitches every fourth day or longer between appearances, his ERA is well over nine.

Personally I like both Sergio Romo and Billy Sadler a lot. Maybe Matos, but he worries me a bit for some reason. But with Wilson, Romo, Sadler, Hinshaw and yes, perhaps even Taschner, the Giants could be building something in the bullpen besides a new Ball Dude.

by sharksrog on Aug 2, 2008 10:55 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

My problem with using Wilson as a fireman

is the trouble he always gets into (see: last night). He usually finds a way out of it, but if he starts with the bases loaded there is no margin for error. I could see using him to start the 8th sometimes in close games, but he just gives up too many hits/walks for my liking to bring him in with runners on.

by UnstoppableTurtle on Aug 2, 2008 10:58 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

yep

His current save-conversion rate is unsustainable. He’s good, but he’s also gotten incredibly lucky.

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.

by delorean on Aug 2, 2008 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

luck or adrenaline closer?

He has been lucky so far, but it isn’t clear yet that his save rate is mostly lucky. For the most part, he’s pitched out of his own messes, rather than being saved by defense like last night.

I think the question facing us is whether he has been (a) mostly lucky or is in fact (b) a pitcher who seems to need tight situations in order to pitch at their best, , and the answer will only come over time. He'd hardly be the first closer to struggle in non-save situations, and he clearly pitches better under stress. Wilson seems to treat a 3 run lead like it is over 3, until it gets hairy enough to be like a 1 run game (the tying run at the plate or on base)--or at least seems so.

I can see him maintaining it, but I can also seeing him flounder later. It is hard to say.

by haverecords on Aug 2, 2008 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have no idea why it is in blue.

I said: I think the question facing us is whether he has been (a) mostly lucky or is in fact (b) a pitcher who needs high stress in order to pitch effectively. He would hardly be the first closer to fall into category b, if in fact he does, and it will take time to see which one he is. He clearly does pitch better under stress, as it seems he really doesn’t start clicking until the game is truly in danger (tying run on base or at bat). It is a dangerous way to go, but there aren’t that many habitually ‘clean’ closers, either.

by haverecords on Aug 2, 2008 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

fwiw

His FIP is a full run lower than his ERA. One could argue that he has gotten incredibly unlucky.

I’m wondering what it will take for people to stop saying Wilson is lucky, or the beneficiary of opportunity… What kind of FIP, or what other stat?

His FIP is quite a bit lower than K-Rod’s, for example. Wilson also get’s a 60% GB rate which is pretty amazing…

Eugeniooooooo!!!!

by FairweatherFan on Aug 3, 2008 8:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Bill James “Relief Ace” Formula:

best reliever comes in for two innings in tie games, two innings with a one-run lead, one inning with a 2-3 run lead if he hasn’t thrown in a while. No automatic 3-run-save appearances – leave that to your lesser arms.

Apparently this has been simulated to the point of certainty. I’m certainly not one to quibble with it.

"he walked 18; new league record! Struck out 18, another new league record! He also hit the sportswriter, the PA announcer, the bull mascot twice..."

by i did my job on Aug 2, 2008 11:12 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

The Save Perversion is one mostly promulgated by agents who have a vested interest in junk stats which lead to larger commissions.

The OP is however entirely correct that you would normally want to use your best reliever as soon as the leverage index of the game indicates you should. That can be getting out of a jam (runners on in a close game and less than two out, usually) or starting the 8th with a lead or in a tie if the opponent’s 2-, 3- or 4-hitter is due to lead off.

And as is occasionally mentioned, there’s no reason not to replace the closer with an “opener”. That is, a specialist whose job is to pitch the first two innings, hopefully getting the opponents top 6 or 7 out, then retire in favor of the actual “starter” who should generally take it the rest of the way. It could be devastatingly effective by reducing the possibility of early runs allowed and eliminating handedness advantage (against clubs with few or very poor switch hitters anyway) in lineup selection.

Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.

by S.F. Giangst on Aug 2, 2008 11:21 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Tell Lincecum to throw less pitches so he can either pitch 8 innings or a complete game.

by wilriv21 on Aug 2, 2008 11:55 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm

If I were going to make a comment such as the above, I would say “fewer” instead of “less.” :)

You don’t think Tim knows that and that the Giants don’t talk about it with him? As Mike Krukow says, as Tim matures, he will learn HOW to pitch to contact better and when he is more likely to get away with it.

Tim HAS talked about pitching to contact, but there would seem to be a fine line between pitching to contact and pitching to too MUCH contact.

One of Matt Cain’s goals last season was to cut down his pitch count so that he could pitch more innings. He made some progress in that regard, and I believe he has made more progress recently as his control has improved. Tim is also trying to keep his pitch count down—and he actually has thrown fewer pitches per innings during his career than Matt.

I can just see Dave Righetti going to Tim and saying, “Stop striking out so many guys and see if you can get them to hit homers instead.” :)

by sharksrog on Aug 3, 2008 12:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

kinda ot but...

Does Wilson have entrance music? I think I remember hearing some sort of hard rock, but does anyone what the song is or anything?

by Nellieball on Aug 2, 2008 12:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

*does anyone know the song or anything

by Nellieball on Aug 2, 2008 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

“Rise Up” by Disciple

Farewell, Ray. We'll miss your smile and your sugar. Welcome, Steve Hammond "Eggs". Throw strikes.
comics | cartoons | Nattowear

by Natto on Aug 2, 2008 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

2nd least intimidating walkup music ever.

(a guy on the Rivercats has “Want You To Want Me”)

you can't block the Bocock

by oldjacket on Aug 2, 2008 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hinshaw's song is pretty unintimidating too

“Until the Day I Die” by Story of the Year

by FluLikeSymptoms on Aug 2, 2008 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

thank you good sir

by Nellieball on Aug 2, 2008 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

also, in the 8th last night were Giles and Adrian G., the only real dangerous hitters for SD. And Gonzales hits lefties well. Yet another reason to send out the Beach Boy.
Egos have gotten so out of control, and the lust for stats and saves! Wilson may not be overamped yet for ego, but we are working on it.
A real good manager would have to send a message from the beginning that 3 or so key relievers will be used as needed. And then you would have to pay them accordingly.

adopter/sponsor of "Go, Antoan" Richardson

by foothillsfan on Aug 2, 2008 2:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

I like the idea of the solid closer if they’re strong and consistent enough, which I don’t always know if I feel Wilson is.

I like the multiple reliever idea that Geren says he’ll be using over in Oakland - the “3 or so key relievers” method - where Street is ostensibly a closer, but if Ziegler and Blevins are hot, they make perfect firemen.

by offthedeepend on Aug 4, 2008 2:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs