19 Year Old Embarasses Single A

by Sabean_Ruined_My_Childhood on Aug 16, 2008 6:51 PM PDT

The tenth slot in the first round of the amateur draft has treated the Giants very well the last couple years. 2006 gave us Lincecum, and 2007 gave us 6'4" high school left hander Madison Bumgarner. According to baseball ref's minor league site, Madison is repeatedly performing acts of premeditated violence upon the South Atlantic League to the tune of:

130 IP, 102 H, 145/20 K/BB, 1.52 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 3 HR allowed

That is scary K to walk territory, and the 3 homers allowed is even scarier. I've hardly heard Bumgarner's name mentioned on Giants broadcasts or on KNBR, nor have I been able to find a whole lot online about his stuff aside from one piece put out before he was even drafted: http://ww2.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2007/index.jsp?mc=bumgarner

From what I understand he features a bigtime fastball clocking in at around 95 with movement, but I can't find anything recent on his breaking/off-speed stuff. He's only 19 and clearly has nothing left to learn in the Sally League, so I'm wondering how much longer Giants management will allow him to stay there. I'm curious what other Giants fans have heard about him. I'd also like to put forth the observation that a couple seasons from now the Giants could be handing the ball every single game to a guy in his early to mid twenties who routinely brings it in the low to mid 90s--Cain, Lincecum, Sanchez, Bumgarner, and fellow 2007 first round draftee Tim Alderson, who is 19, 6'6" and currently abusing the California league in high A Ball. Take a look at Alderson here (4 HR allowed in 132 innings): http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=34987

This would be one of the top 2 or 3 young rotations in baseball, maybe the best. It, of course, assumes Zito by this point would making 18 million a year for providing long relief services, which, in the name of all that is holy and good, is the only reasonable role for him.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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This is just not fair

A sampling of a few of Bumgarner’s tastiest performances:

August 15 v Lexington: 6 IP, 2 H, 12 K, 2 BB, 0 R
August 3 v Savannah: 7 IP, 4 H, 9 K, 0 BB, 0 R
July 16 v Hagerstown: 7 IP, 4 H, 11 K, 0 BB, 0 R
June 21 v Asheville: 7 IP, 5 H, 10 K, 0 BB, 0 R

those poor hitters

by Sabean_Ruined_My_Childhood on Aug 16, 2008 7:09 PM PDT reply actions

Good

After today’s game we need something to look forward to!

by Merope on Aug 16, 2008 7:16 PM PDT reply actions

This is the level he started the year in, right? Seriously, when does he get promoted, alderson is at SJ already.

Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa

by raisingcain on Aug 16, 2008 7:58 PM PDT reply actions

To be fair

Alderson started at SJ this year. Since it is their first years respectively, it’s generally accepted for high-schoolers to be kept at one level for the entirety of the season. There’s a good chance he’ll be in AA by the end of next season, however.

BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Aug 16, 2008 8:12 PM PDT up reply actions

There’s a good chance he’ll be in the majors by the end of next season, imo.

by Evan on Aug 17, 2008 6:10 AM PDT up reply actions

I find that highly implausible.

He’s been great but he’s still young and has most likely been getting by on pure stuff, rather than command. A trip to SJ will definitely show that. I haven’t heard recently how his change/curve has developed. If those two are sweet pitches by next year then I could see it. however, as horrendously as we have been rushing our position prospects to the majors, the same is not true for our pitchers. Remember when our rotation kinda sucked and Jonathan Sanchez still spent parts of 3 seasons in AAA? We have a history of slow tracking pitchers. IMO, Cain was a better prospect at the same point in his career and we still gave him almost a full year at every level.

Slow tracking pitchers is something that has worked in this organization and I really see no way they would deviate from that, especially with such an underdeveloped (not throwing curve until last year) high schooler. Alderson, with his dynamite control, is a different story entirely.

The only way I see Bumgarner getting to the majors next year is if he dominates, is fast tracked but in a relief role which I really don’t want to see.

BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Aug 17, 2008 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions

I think Evan was talking about TimA

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Aug 17, 2008 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions

No, I was talking about Bumgarner, but Alderson could be up too, I suppose.

I don’t think it’s likely that either of them will be in the majors, but I wouldn’t be suprised. Clayton Kershaw is holding down a rotation spot for a contender two years after being drafted, with a total of 220 minor league innings. Ankiel was in the majors in his second pro season. So was Josh Beckett. So was Kazmir. Bumgarner may not be quite in that class, but you wouldn’t know it from looking at the numbers.

by Evan on Aug 17, 2008 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions

all of those

had 3+ plus pitches and most had at least one plus-plus pitch. bumgarner’s fastball is plus (borderline plus-plus), the other two are average right now.

BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Aug 17, 2008 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions

I think you’re overerestimating the reliability of the info we have about his pitches, and underestimating the phenomenal nature of his numbers this year. FIP-wise, he’s way, way ahead of all those pitchers at a comparable point in their careers, except maybe Ankiel.

As I look up the numbers for other pitching phenoms, it really seems weird that the Giants have chosen to leave Bumgarner in Augusta all year. I’m sure they have their reasons, and they may well be right, but can you think of a comparable case of an organization leaving a top prospect in one place to just absolutely crush the competition all year long? I can’t.

by Evan on Aug 17, 2008 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions

I’m fine with it, considering the unique position Bumgarner is in in having to work on his offspeed stuff. I’d hope that next year, if he continues to dominate at high-A, they begin to move him more quickly though.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Aug 17, 2008 5:15 PM PDT up reply actions

It seems like from everyone that I've heard

his offspeed stuff just isn’t there. the blog linked above talked about his pitch selection being almost exclusively fastballs during the game. He described his “slider” as “slurvy” (I thought he threw a curve) and didn’t mention him using the change at all. Every single source says lively fastball and unimpressive offspeed. FIP really doesn’t matter all that much to me (although i’m really interested as to where you found the numbers) in such a young league. the talent is there but the polish is not. As Bumgarner reaches higher levels, the FB only just won’t work.

As I said, it’s an organizational philosophy of the Giants to slowtrack high school pitchers. i agree with jponry that he should be in low A, until he develops those out pitches that he’ll need to succeed in high A. One pitch just doesn’t work, even if it’s a 93-95 MPH fastball from a lefty.

BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Aug 17, 2008 6:41 PM PDT up reply actions

I’m not sure I’d agree that it’s an organizational philosophy to slowtrack high school pitchers. The only real comparison we have to Bumgarner is Matt Cain, and he was in the majors at the end of his 3rd full season (at age 20) despite the fact that he had missed one entire half of the first one. He was promoted to Cal League despite having had his Sally season shut down in June, and promoted on to AA at about the All Star break of that second season.

The only other high profile high school pitcher they’ve drafted was Whitaker and obviously he just didn’t develop so you can’t use him as a comparison. And Sanchez (who was a college grad actually, so also different) may have spent three years being shuttled back and forth from SF to Fresno, but you’re forgetting how lightning fast he was rocketed to SF in the first place. He spent one season in Low A of middling success but good peripherals, came up to the Cal League for the playoffs of that same season, and then began the next season in AA, where after dominating for one month he was converted to a reliever due to the major league bullpens crappiness, and brought up in very early June. (In other words he was promoted ot the majors less than two years after being drafted and with only about 30 innings above the Low A level).

Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!

by Roger on Aug 17, 2008 7:01 PM PDT up reply actions

point taken

However, Sanchez’s numbers were downright ridiculous. He absolutely dominated. And he was out of college. and had legitimate secondary pitches.

My basic point is that because of the lack of secondary pitches, Bumgarner will be exposed at higher levels, especially in the Cal league.

I have a great respect for stats but when dealing with an environment like low-A ball that is very far removed from the consistency of the MLB stats point towards numerical dominance whereas a look at what type of pitches the pitcher is throwing reveals progression. He is undoubtedly making mince meat of the SAL, but he has not progressed enough to reach the level where he will find success at high A.

BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Aug 18, 2008 2:12 AM PDT up reply actions

If you dig around a bit more, you`ll find some other comments by those who have seen him. A number of credible folks have said his breaking ball `flashes` plus, but is uneven as is. The pitch selection bit is off, as a number of reports from this year have him throwing the breaking ball, so `exclusively` seems a mischarecterization. It seems his change has come into play within the last month, as I too don`t recall hearing about it until this last month, and not just from the report posted here; I have no idea of its quality or potential qualithy, though.

Also, the FB only approach can work in higher levels too—if the fastball is top notch. A proximate example is Cain in the earlier part of his being at this level: while he had a very nice curve, it was as unreliable as it was nice, and he rarely threw the change. He did quite well just throwing his fastball, and this is at the MLB level for a significant amount of time—more enough time for scouting reports to get around the league. Of course, hitters eventually adjusted (waited him out), and he has since rounded out well as a pitcher. But if one can do quite well at the MLB level on basically one pitch for that long, it is reasonable to expect one could even dominate at AA on one killer pitch and a few below average pitches.

Randy Johnson comes to mind too here. He didn`t that filthly slider until after he was MLB for a while, and other than his fastball, everything else was weak. I can`t find his minors stats, but I figure he did well enough that teams decided it was best for him to figure it out at the mlb level. Not saying this is what the Giants should do here, of course…

by haverecords on Aug 18, 2008 3:17 AM PDT up reply actions

Alderson is a bit older

Alderson’s DOB is 11/3/88
Bumgarner’s DOB is 8/1/89

that’s a difference of 9 months. It may not seem like a lot in the long run, but Mad Bum just turned 19 two weeks ago and Alderson turns 20 right after the season ends. I think that difference, while not dispositive, may have contributed to Alderson going to SJ rather than Augusta.

Bonds stands alone.

Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal

by nostocksjustbonds on Aug 16, 2008 8:17 PM PDT up reply actions

There may also be an organizational strategy at work to keep them out of the same farm team simply so they focus on development rather than competing with each other.

Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.

by S.F. Giangst on Aug 16, 2008 9:14 PM PDT up reply actions

I’ve never heard of anything like that. I do think Alderson was a bit more polished with his repertoire than Mad Bum and that is also why he went to SJ rather than Augusta. Obviously, his success there has validated that decision.

Bonds stands alone.

Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal

by nostocksjustbonds on Aug 16, 2008 9:21 PM PDT up reply actions

What’s Bumgarner’s repertoire like?

Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.

by S.F. Giangst on Aug 16, 2008 9:35 PM PDT up reply actions

well based on scouting reports I’ve read, he has a very good fastball in the low to mid-90’s. He’s showing excellent command as evidenced by his low walk total. His breaking pitches and change up are works in progress. That was basically his profile going into draft day 2007.

He’s done better than expected, but he needs to improve those secondary pitches to succeed at the higher levels. He’s essentially dominating with his fastball right now, which is why I think a promotion would be in order, but there’s only a couple more weeks to go in the SAL season (and then possibly the playoffs), so I’m not surprised they’re just leaving him there. If Augusta doesn’t make the playoffs, I have no doubt that Mad Bum will go to SJ for the Cal League playoffs, as SJ has already clinched a spot as the first half winner.

Bonds stands alone.

Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal

by nostocksjustbonds on Aug 16, 2008 9:54 PM PDT up reply actions

well...

While the breaking pitches and change are works in progress still, they are considered to be quite further along than going into draft day. He throws his off speed stuff more than some reports make it to sound like, as well.

by haverecords on Aug 16, 2008 10:50 PM PDT up reply actions

I didn’t meant to imply that his breaking stuff hasn’t improved in the last year, just that his fastball is his plus pitch and the other stuff is less developed than the fastball.

Bonds stands alone.

Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal

by nostocksjustbonds on Aug 16, 2008 11:09 PM PDT up reply actions

Yes, coming out of HS he had almost no secondary pitches. So he went to low A to get some. They are coming. I would not be surprised to see him in AA next year. Yes, the hitters are more mature and devloped, but it is still a pitcher’s league.

by allfrank on Aug 17, 2008 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions

There may also be an organizational strategy at work to keep them out of the same farm team simply so they focus on development rather than competing with each other.

That’s a pretty good reason, actually.

by Evan on Aug 17, 2008 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions

Giants fan in NC

I am lucky enough to get to watch him pitch every now and then…I will probably see him Thurs night in Kannapolis…..I write up summaries and post pics of the games I see if you want to check them out….

My blog

by Sgt. Dingleberry on Aug 16, 2008 8:28 PM PDT reply actions

ah, I visit this blog every so often. Thanks for doing it!

by haverecords on Aug 16, 2008 8:55 PM PDT up reply actions

Mad Bum on BA’s 8/15 Hot Sheet

The Scoop: The beat goes on for Bumgarner, the SAL’s most dominating pitcher. His secondary pitches are still works in progress, but most Sally League hitters simply have no chance against the 92-94 mph fastballs coming from Bumgarner’s left arm. His start this week was his third straight scoreless outing—giving him a 22-inning shutout streak—as he’s neither been scored upon nor issued a walk since July 22. And this start was even more impressive when you consider it was on the road at hitter-friendly Greensboro, and he was about the only pitcher this week who slowed down fellow Hot-Sheeters Mike Stanton and Matt Dominguez.

Bonds stands alone.

Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal

by nostocksjustbonds on Aug 16, 2008 8:39 PM PDT reply actions

Mike Stanton is playing in low A and is on BA’s hot sheet?

BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Aug 17, 2008 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions

Different Mike Stanton. This one’s a masher in the Florida system.

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Aug 17, 2008 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions

Don't forget about Lowry

Autzen was the first stadium to start calling black people "African Americans", ... instead of colored people. A true trailblazer.

by KingofDucks1987 on Aug 16, 2008 8:58 PM PDT reply actions

Who?

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Aug 17, 2008 12:19 AM PDT up reply actions

Sam Lowry

He was just promoted to Information Retrieval

by Sandor Clegane on Aug 17, 2008 1:04 AM PDT up reply actions

WE STILL HAVE LAWREE

good star right?

by fwoty oz on Aug 17, 2008 12:20 AM PDT up reply actions

Brett Lawrie?

Bitchin!

"While conservatives tell you 'leave things alone and no one will lose,' and liberals tell you 'interfere a lot and no one will lose,' baseball says 'someone will lose.' Not only says it - but insists upon it! ... Democracy is lovely, but baseball's more mature." BVCE supports SF Dugout and Manny Burriss.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Aug 17, 2008 12:23 AM PDT up reply actions

I thought we were down on Mad Bum – I thought the guy we really wanted was Beau Mills. Don’t tell me, how quickly we forget?

by allfrank on Aug 17, 2008 10:28 AM PDT reply actions

I’d still trade Tim Lincecum for Kyle Drabek…that Drabek kid’s gonna be a star!

by Grant Brisbee on Aug 17, 2008 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions

not beau mills

Jason Heyward. The kid OPSing .880 in the SAL. Has an almost .390 OBP.

I’d still take him over Bumgarner.

BROCK BOND LIKES HIS MARTINIS PUNCHED IN THE FACE, NOT STIRRED.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Aug 17, 2008 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions

as would most

..except I believe I wore out my welcome repeating same.

On the bright side, Bumgarner is a nice consolation prize.

by wcw on Aug 17, 2008 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions

I was hoping for Mills, actually. I haven’t followed how he’s doing, but since the Giants drafted Bumgarner and he’s doing great, there’s no point being down on him (bumgarner). I’m not really into making comparisons between who we drafted and who we should have drafted, what’s done is done, we should just appreciate that we have a dominating (a-ball for now) pitcher.

Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa

by raisingcain on Aug 17, 2008 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions

He’s not bad. But complaining about draft picks that dominate low-A is weird. THere’s so much more to complain about with this organisation.

you can't block the Bocock

by oldjacket on Aug 17, 2008 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions

Mills

.293/.375/.509 in A+ ball for the Indians. 20 homers and 99 ks in 119 games. pretty good. He just turned 22 a couple of days ago.

Bonds stands alone.

Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal

by nostocksjustbonds on Aug 17, 2008 10:25 PM PDT up reply actions

I was wrong. And I’m very willing to admit that.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Aug 17, 2008 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions

JP! The first rule of the internet is that YOU CAN NEVER ADMIT YOU ARE WRONG.

Bay City Ball

by xanthan on Aug 18, 2008 6:25 AM PDT up reply actions

Like I've Been Saying

Immediately after hijacking my DePodesta post, my dear old pal S_R_M_C has brought up an amazingly good point. I’ve been arguing for months that the Giants have the best potential front three in MLB, in terms of overall rotation potential and upside. Think of what they’ll do next season! We’re talking mid-90’s Atlanta Braves here,—which is why we can’t afford to have a complete dingleberry like Sabes helming the rebuilding of the offense. Sabes has admitted to the following: i) the draft is only valuable and cost-effective for drafting pitchers; ii) those pitchers possess rotational value and trade capital for (mediocre) position players; iii) other positions will be filled by aging free agents who are worth over-paying because of “intangible” (or non-statistical) values like leadership, experience, etc. It sounds good, but with the core of the rotation in place, and more young pitchers on the way to suppliment the back-end of the starts and the pen, shouldn’t we move toward a offensively-focused-draft organization that will ONLY deal young prospects for players unlike….A.J. “Sock-in-the-Nuts” Pierzynski? The man for that job, in my opinion, is DePodesta (see my recent fanpost).

Moneyball the Bay!

by JJUlyss on Aug 17, 2008 12:37 PM PDT reply actions