NL Cy Young?
by aybayz on Aug 14, 2008 1:27 AM PDT
29 comments
I just realized that there is a problem with voting for the NL Cy Young this year. So pretty much the candidates a month or two ago was Brandon Webb, Tim Lincecum, and Edinson Volquez. But now, all of a sudden, C.C. Sabathia gets traded to the Brewers and he's now 7-0 with yesterday's win. How does that work out? He pretty much split his starts between the Indians and Brewers. It kind of reminds me of that situation where the Giants won the NL in 2002 and then Baker leaves to go to another team. Will Sabathia steal the show from Timmy? Hopefully not; it's really too bad he's on such a bad Giants team given the amount of quality starts he has (which is pretty much all of them except for a couple) and has 182 Ks to lead the majors. Thoughts?
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Doesn’t matter. Brandon Webb will win it because he has WINZ. \o/
by Natto on Aug 14, 2008 1:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Webb Deserves The NL Cy Young
It is not just wins that Brandon has an advantage in. Webb’s WHIP, K/BB, OBP, SLG, OPS, and GO/AO are all better then Lincecum’s. Frankly it is Lincecum who really is the one with the advantage in just one stat (Strikeouts). The ERA difference between the two is neglegable.
As for Sabathia, he will get (and earn some votes) but a half time NL pitcher will not win the Cy Young. The only way this is even remotely possible is if Webb does in his next 8 NL starts what he has done in his first 8 NL starts ( 7 Wins, 4 Complete Games, 2 Shutouts). Do you really think this is likely?
by giantsrainman on Aug 14, 2008 2:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ops, I Ment If Sabathia
does in his next 8 NL starts what he did in his first 8 NL starts.
by giantsrainman on Aug 14, 2008 2:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
.20 of ERA is not negligible.
Lincecum has prevented 33% more BRAA vs. Webb.
His WPA/LI is 25% better.
His LOB% is nearly 10% better.
Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.
by S.F. Giangst on Aug 14, 2008 6:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
.2 in ERA Is all Of 4 Runs
With regards to LOB%, Webb didn’t put anwhere near as many men on base to leave which is more important in my judgement then Lincecum’s advantage in stranding a higher percentage.
Finally, with regards to WPA/LI this is really just saying Lincecum strikes out more batters then Webb does since this stat overvalues the strikeout advantage Lincecum has and undervalues the ground ball outs advantage that Webb has.
by giantsrainman on Aug 14, 2008 7:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It depends how much you think you should try to isolate the pitcher’s individual performance from the team’s – Webb’s BABIP of .296 would indicate more help from his defense than Timmy’s .318 mark. If felt inclined to neutralize those that WHIP advantage would start to disappear.
Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar
by JakeS on Aug 14, 2008 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It would also indicate that Timmy is likely to outpitch Webb going forward this season, narrowing even the perceived gap. I don’t think he’ll win it, by any means, but I think there’s a very good chance he’ll actually have been the best pitcher in the National League come the end of the season. Alex Rios? .280/.329/.416.
Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar
by JakeS on Aug 14, 2008 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Webb's BABIP Is Lower Then Timmy's Because Of Webb's Superior GO/AO
It has noting to do with luck.
by giantsrainman on Aug 14, 2008 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's not right
Fly balls are converted into outs about 79% of the time (closer to 88% if you remove home runs, appropriate in a BABIP discussion), ground balls are only converted into an out about 72% of them time. Lincecum’s fly ball tendencies actually favor him in this case.
Webb’s BABIP is lower because he allows fewer line drives.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
by Bhaakon on Aug 14, 2008 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What You Are Missing Is That Linedrives
Which with regards to GO/AO are considered AO have by far the highest hit rate of all three. When Flyballs and Linedrives are combined the out percentage for groundballs is far better.
by giantsrainman on Aug 14, 2008 9:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Groundballs are great, but they
Ground balls are more likely than fly balls to result in an error, thus creating a disconnect between ERA and runs allowed that overrates ground-ball pitchers (it also screws with WHIP, which notably does not include batters who reach on an error). Even though we traditionally blame defenders for errors, it is still true that the ground ball style of pitching results in many more of them, and the runs still count in the W-L record. Result: all things being equal, a groundball pitcher is usually less valuable than a flyball pitcher with the same ERA. The rule holds true in this case, Lincecum’s runs allowed (earned and unearned) is 2.94, Webb’s is 3.36, doubling the gap in ERA.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
by Bhaakon on Aug 14, 2008 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ain't Buying This
Even if it is true it is insignificant.
by giantsrainman on Aug 14, 2008 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good, because facts aren't for sale.
85% of all errors are on ground balls. More ground balls = more errors = more unearned runs. Here’s one of many articles on it: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/02/a_look_at_unear.php
If it significant? Not hugely. But then, this is an article about splitting hairs, were marginal differences gain inflated importance.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
by Bhaakon on Aug 14, 2008 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I Stand Corrected
That said, Webb is still having the better season.
by giantsrainman on Aug 14, 2008 10:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Wow I agreed with one of rainman’s posts..
Anyway, IMO even though W-L is an extremely overrated statistic, the truth is that Webb has 5 more W than Lincecum, or almost 50% more wins.. even for us W-L-hating stat nerds that should be enough..
I know we’re all biased Giants fans and all, but can we really complain about Lincecum not getting the Cy Young when Brandon Webb has been this good? I mean, he’s given up 6 more ER all year in 7 more IP
I only have a signature because I recognize everyone else by their sigs, not their usernames..
by lmaozedong on Aug 14, 2008 7:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looking at earned runs rather than just runs just adds noise. Lincecum has given up five unearned runs; Webb has given up nine.
In 7 extra innings, Webb has given up 10 extra runs.
by Evan on Aug 14, 2008 8:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure
look at the stats you want to when they’re convenient. Why don’t we compare RA instead of ERA then
I only have a signature because I recognize everyone else by their sigs, not their usernames..
by lmaozedong on Aug 14, 2008 11:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We should really, and I personally try to remember to. RA is the more predictive statistic and IMO a better measure of performance as well.
Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar
by JakeS on Aug 15, 2008 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Most advanced
stats I looked at had Tim > Webb. Exception was “support neutral wins” which was Webb (and a few others by ~1 win). Tim has been very consistant – that’s for you FJM – and that actually hurts him a little vis-a-vis expected wins.
These are value stats, not “predictive stats” like FIP, WHIP, K% etc.
Besides, it’s obviously wrong if giantsrainman sez so.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN
by zenbitz on Aug 14, 2008 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
For the record, I’m not saying that Webb doesn’t deserve the Cy Young. I’m just saying the voters will see his wins and give it to him for that reason.
by Natto on Aug 14, 2008 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
.2 in ERA Is all Of 4 Runs
With regards to LOB%, Webb didn’t put anwhere near as many men on base to leave which is more important in my judgement then Lincecum’s advantage in stranding a higher percentage.
Finally, with regards to WPA/LI this is really just saying Lincecum strikes out more batters then Webb does since this stat overvalues the strikeout advantage Lincecum has and undervalues the ground ball outs advantage that Webb has.
by giantsrainman on Aug 14, 2008 7:04 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Didn’t we just have this thread?
Sabathia’s going to get screwed by switching leagues at midseason, no doubt. He’s pretty clearly the best pitcher in the game this year.
Webb hasn’t been significantly better than Timmy or Haren or Sheets or Santana or even Ryan Friggin’ Dempster. It’s till too soon to tell.
by Evan on Aug 14, 2008 7:54 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, let’s wait until the end of the year until we start really talking about who should win. A month and a half is a lot of baseball.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
by jponry on Aug 14, 2008 8:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d be shocked if Timmy won, for all of the reasons given in this and previous threads. Also, I don’t want them running him out there right up until the end of the year just for a (long) shot at a Cy Young if it means he’s going to go from ~185 innings last year to ~230 this year. Let’s think long-term, people.
No, my Crazy Crab bobblehead is not for sale.
by Kitspool on Aug 14, 2008 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
also, from what I’ve seen so far, I’m not sure Timmy would be very good at Dodge Ball.
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Aug 14, 2008 10:03 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Timmy has been the best pitcher this year support neutrally, a shade ahead of Webb, but none of that will matter because of his win total. If Sabathia goes undefeated the rest of the way he’ll have a good shot, otherwise I’d say Webb is the shoo-in.
Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar
by JakeS on Aug 14, 2008 11:06 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Lincecum isn't even the best Cy Candidate on the team
Wilson leads the league in saves 1!1
superclutch!
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
by Bhaakon on Aug 14, 2008 12:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Since you're all waiting for my prediction...
This discussion of “advanced stats” is great, but how many Cy Yonug voters really look at these numbers? I’m guessing they look at W-L, Ks, ERA and maybe WHIP, K/9 and K/BB.
After that, they’ll look at Webb’s reputation and the fact that he played for a better team, therefore he must be better, so they’ll vote for him. There will be talk of how Lincecum was actually more deserving, which will help establish his “rep” for future Cy Young consideration.
Zooperstars, they quack me up!
by Goofus on Aug 15, 2008 9:24 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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